There’s merit to the over developed argument, to a point, but I think that’s an argument against mid-tier Valley kids, not the top of the heap. The kids who are Division I, but not top ten program caliber (like the slew of D11 kids who go Ivy) tend to be pretty maxed out.
You did have that stretch 20 years ago where D11’s college results did not match their high school ones, which interestingly came immediately after their one of the best performing generation of colleges guys (the Trenge, Snyder. Billman, Dillon, Killar, Stuart, Doto, Vitale, Frick). But that 01-08 generation that only saw Ecklof and Krom AA and while I pointed out some individual reason for why some guys didn’t blossom, but there was definitely structural stuff in place too - I’ve been critical in other places of Northampton’s development and style (and Saucon’s now) for getting guys ready for the next level, and I think other programs/clubs had an over emphasis of top wrestling in a way that didn’t translate. Also, a lot of those kids (many of whom I’ve know for a long time and like personally) were nuts.
But has the “Lehigh Valley studs aren’t good in college” thing been true since? Starting with Oliver, there have been good college careers with podium appearances from Cruz, Lizak, Labriola, Sasso, Moisey, Minotti. We’ll see on the Condomitti, Pinto, Handlovic group that is just getting started, but they feel more college ready than that group twenty years ago. What you haven’t seen is the multi year medalist who maybe makes finals or wins a weight without a superstar then blossom into a legit guy in college, which you probably can attribute to the over development angle (a kid like Danny Moran or Travis Stefanik comes to mind), but Penn State isn’t and shouldn’t be in on those kids anyway.
Taking this back to states, in the underclassmen group, I’d be on Rath, Desmond, Kinney if I’m Penn State, in that order. I think Rath is the best athlete of the three in a way that gives him upside beyond how polished he is for a freshman. Desmond is the best now, but he’d be the one I’d have the closest eye on to see how he jumps levels developmentally. Kinney is very skilled for his size, and I think he probably has the highest floor, but I do have some ceiling questions. Campbell I think is a guy that’s going to be maxed out pretty early, I don’t think he’ll be a Penn State level kid at all. Parkins I have no idea, he’s gotta actually wrestle.
