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KYPSW 2022-23

As always, thx a ton for doing this @pawrestlersintn! It adds an extra bit of fun to the tourneys to see how wrong some of my guesses are.

Once again I'm an "also ran." I count an extra couple bonus points for my picks than you, but I'm sure you're right. I can never seem to wrap my mind around the difference between the 4 and 3 point criteria since 4 says "to the nearest half-point" but 3 says "a prediction that is off by 0.5 points."

I've never noticed that wording for 4 before. There is no rounding, so you get four if you guess the bonus points scored exactly. It was likely written that way to let you know your guesses can/should be made in half point increments.
It’s been something like 8(?) years since the original contest rules write-up (when we did this on Scout’s “On the Mats” forum), and I don’t recall every detail, but I suspect the wording/description of the bonus points section is the same as the original . . .

. . . In which case, I would say @pawrestlersintn is explaining the intent correctly. The parenthetical “to the nearest half-point” was meant to be a reminder that bonus point predictions should be made with that level of precision, not that a prediction off by 0.1-0.5 qualifies as predicting a wrestler’s bonus point total “exactly”.

I can see now how that could create confusion. Flog me (and my tendency for wordiness) for that one.
 
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It’s been something like 8(?) years since the original contest rules write-up (when we did this on Scout’s “On the Mats” forum), and I don’t recall every detail, but I suspect the wording/description of the bonus points section is the same as the original . . .

. . . In which case, I would say @pawrestlersintn is explaining the intent correctly. The parenthetical “to the nearest half-point” was meant to be a reminder that bonus point predictions should be made with that level of precision, not that a prediction off by 0.1-0.5 qualifies as predicting a wrestler’s bonus point total “exactly”.

I can see now how that could create confusion. Flog me (and my tendency for wordiness) for that one.
You’ll both be hearing from my lawyer shortly.
 
You’ll both be hearing from my lawyer shortly.
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It’s been something like 8(?) years since the original contest rules write-up (when we did this on Scout’s “On the Mats” forum), and I don’t recall every detail, but I suspect the wording/description of the bonus points section is the same as the original . . .

. . . In which case, I would say @pawrestlersintn is explaining the intent correctly. The parenthetical “to the nearest half-point” was meant to be a reminder that bonus point predictions should be made with that level of precision, not that a prediction off by 0.1-0.5 qualifies as predicting a wrestler’s bonus point total “exactly”.

I can see now how that could create confusion. Flog me (and my tendency for wordiness) for that one.
I saved the original rules when we wrote them, which ARE the same ast pa uses to this day. Funny that this comes up many seasons later. Here's a recommended change...i.e. the bolded 2 portions.

Bonus Points (can entered in half-point increments)
4 points awarded for predicting a wrestler's bonus point total exactly (to the nearest half-point < to be removed)
3 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 0.5 points
2 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 1.0 points
1 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 1.5 points
0 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 2.0 or more points
- note: Major Decision and Tech Fall w/o Near Fall = 1.0 bonus points; Tech Fall w/ Near Fall = 1.5 bonus points; Fall, Medical Forfeit, Injury Default, and Disqualification = 2.0 bonus points.
 
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I saved the original rules when we wrote them, which ARE the same at pa uses to this day. Funny that this comes up many seasons later. Here's a recommended change...i.e. the bolded 2 portions.

Bonus Points (can entered in half-point increments)
4 points awarded for predicting a wrestler's bonus point total exactly (to the nearest half-point < to be removed)
3 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 0.5 points
2 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 1.0 points
1 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 1.5 points
0 points awarded for a prediction that is off by 2.0 or more points
- note: Major Decision and Tech Fall w/o Near Fall = 1.0 bonus points; Tech Fall w/ Near Fall = 1.5 bonus points; Fall, Medical Forfeit, Injury Default, and Disqualification = 2.0 bonus points.
I’m fine with whatever makes this easier to understand and agree we should strike the parenthetical “to the nearest half-point” statement.
 
@jmadden1998 probably a shitty request since you do so much for us already but any chance you can do picks for wrestlestat for nattys? If not completely understand.
Holy crap. I thought this was directed at me. I snorted diet Pepsi out of my nose in the restaurant I'm in. People were looking at me, when I realized you were asking @jmadden1998 to run hundreds of WS comparisons, and the second snort hit. Now, I'm a dripping mess, and the entire restaurant is looking at me.
 
Holy crap. I thought this was directed at me. I snorted diet Pepsi out of my nose in the restaurant I'm in. People were looking at me, when I realized you were asking @jmadden1998 to run hundreds of WS comparisons, and the second snort hit. Now, I'm a dripping mess, and the entire restaurant is looking at me.
Lol. Sorry.

He did big10s. Thought maybe he had some type of program or there's a way to do it in wrestlestat that makes it easier. I know it's a big ask from me but maybe I don't realize how big it actually is. Lol
 
I guess I need to go back to the drawing board. My first time through the bracket has us at 158 points and Iowa at 92. 158 and that's with only 3 champs, yikes.

Cael does have our kids better conditioned and more prepared than any other program, right?

My blue and white glasses are struggling a bit with Beau, SVN, Alex and Max. I didn't go too crazy with any of them, and we still hit 158. I was expecting something between 120-140 to be honest. Could we get 9 AAs???

I am using the interactive bracket from HR. Has anyone else found a problem with the imbedded math?
 
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Just for giggles I ran it 3 more times with appropriate adjustments to bonus and placement:

Best case = 4 champs, 163
Most likely = 3 champs, 138
Worst case = 1 champ, 110

Sorry I just couldn't go to the 5 champs best case even though we have seen it before. The worst case would be a total disaster and we still win comfortably unless someone catches lightning in a bottle.

Looking at 141, 149 and 197 I guess we need to be prepared for some surprises. Some very hard paths to the promised land that could result in several missing the podium. There is significant upside potential as well. I wouldn't bet my house on any of those weights.
 
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KYPSW Nationals Edition, 2023

Here it is, the third and final installment of the 2022-23 Know Your Penn State Wrestlers competition. Nationals! We will crown an NCAA Tournament Champion, and then an Overall KYPSW 2022-23 Champion. 900 points are available for this competition.


What You Need To Do

For each of the 9 PSU wrestlers, predict his:
(1) Place finish as 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, R12, or R16+
(2) Cumulative bonus points scored, to the nearest 0.5 pts

Notes:

- R12 means the wrestler reaches the “Round of 12”, but does not advance.

- R16+ means the wrestler is eliminated from the tournament within the “Round of 16” or earlier.

- All predictions must be posted in this thread by 11:00 AM Eastern on Thursday, March 16th.


Scoring


For each PSU wrestler, you will be awarded “Placement Points” based on your prediction for where the wrestler places in the tournament. You will also be awarded “Bonus Points” based on your predicted number of bonus points scored by the wrestler. The scoring structure for Placement Points and Bonus Points are listed below.

Placement Points
90 points for correct prediction
80 points for prediction off by 1 place
70 points for prediction off by 2 places
55 points for prediction off by 3 places
40 points for prediction off by 4 places
20 points for prediction off by 5 places
0 points for prediction off by 6+ places

Notes:

- R12 will be treated functionally as “10th place”, meaning it is considered 2 place finishes below 8th for purposes of the contest.
- R16+ will be treated functionally as “14th place”, meaning it is considered 4 place finishes below R12 and 6 place finishes below 8th for purposes of the contest.

Examples:
- You predict R12, wrestler finishes R12, you score 90 pts. for correct prediction.
- You predict R12, wrestler finishes 8th, you score 70 pts. for prediction off by 2.
- You predict R12, wrestler finishes 7th, you score 55 pts. for prediction off by 3.
- You predict R12, wrestler is eliminated before reaching the Round of 16, you score 40 pts. for prediction off by 4.
- You predict R16+, wrestler loses in the Round of 16, you score 90 pts. for correct prediction.
- You predict R16+, wrestler finishes R12, you score 40 pts. for prediction off by 4.
- You predict R16+, wrestler finishes 8th, you score 0 pts. for prediction off by 6.

- You predict 6th, wrestler finishes R12, you score 40 pts. for prediction off by 4.


Bonus Points
10 points for correct prediction
8 points for prediction off by 0.5 pts
6 points for prediction off by 1.0 pts
4 points for prediction off by 1.5 pts
3 points for prediction off by 2.0 pts
2 points for prediction off by 2.5 pts
1 point for prediction off by 3.0 pts
0 points for prediction off by 3.5+ pts


Notes:

- Major Decision = 1.0 bonus points

- Tech Fall = 1.5 bonus points

- Fall, Medical Forfeit, Injury Default, and Disqualification = 2.0 bonus points.



The maximum attainable score under this system is 900 points. Tiebreaker criteria are (1) most placement points, (2) most “90-point” placement predictions, (3) most “80-point” placement predictions, (4) most “70-point” placement predictions, (5) most “55-point” placement predictions, (6) most “40 point” placement predictions, (7) most “20 point” placement predictions, and (8) most message board posts.



All predictions must be posted in this thread by 11:00 AM Eastern on Thursday, March 16th.
 
Nationals

125: No Entry
133: 1st, 2.0
141: 4th, 1.0
149: R12, 1.0
157: 3rd, 3.0
165: 8th, 0.0
174: 1st, 3.0
184: 1st, 4.0
197: 5th, 1.0
285: 2nd, 3.5
 
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NCAAs:

125: No Entry
133: 1st, 3.5
141: 4th, 1.0
149: 5th, 2.0
157: 3rd, 4.0
165: 6th, 1.0
174: 1st, 3.0
184: 1st, 3.5
197: 5th, 2.0
285: 1st, 3.5
 
NCAAs:
125: No Entry
133: 1st, 4.0
141: 3rd, 1.0
149: 7th, 3.0
157: 2nd, 2.0
165: 7th, 1.0
174: 1st, 3.0
184: 1st, 3.0
197: 6th, 2.0
285: 2nd, 4.0
 
NCAA Championships
125 -
No Entry
133 - 1st, 4.5
141 - 4th, 0.5
149 - 5th, 1.0
157 - 2nd, 2.5
165 - 7th, 0.0
174 - 1st, 3.0
184 - 1st, 4.5
197 - 2nd, 1.5
285 - 2nd, 2.5

The glasses are rosy, yes indeed.
 
NCAAs:

125: No Entry
133: 1st, 2.5
141: 6th, 1.0
149: R12, 2.0
157: 3rd, 2.5
165: R12, 1.0
174: 1st, 2.5
184: 1st, 3.5
197: 4th, 3.0
285: 2nd, 3.0
 
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NCAAs:
125: N/A
133: 1st, 3.5
141: 5th, 1.5
149: 7th, 2.0
157: 4th, 3.0
165: R12, 1.0
174: 1st, 3.0
184: 1st, 4.0
197: 5th, 2.5
285: 2nd, 2.5
 
NCAAs:
125: No Entry
133: 1st, 2.5
141: 6th, 2.0
149: R12, 3.5
157: 2nd, 1.0
165: R12, 1.0
174: 1st, 2.5
184: 1st, 3.5
197: R12, 3.0
285: 2nd, 2.5
 
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NCAA Championships

125: --
133:
1st, 3
141: 5th, 1.5
149: 8th, 1.5
157: 3rd, 2.0
165: 8th, 1.0
174: 1st, 3.5
184: 1st, 4.5
197: 3rd, 2.0
285: 2nd, 3.5
 
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NCAA Championships

125: --
133:
1st, 3
141: 6th, 1.0
149: 7th, 1.0
157: 3rd, 2.0
165: 8th, 1.0
174: 1st, 3.5
184: 1st, 4.5
197: 3rd, 2.0
285: 1st, 3.5
 
NCAA Championships

125: --
133:
1st, 3.5
141: 6th, .5
149: 7th, 1.0
157: 2nd , 1.5
165: 8th, 1.0
174: 1st, 3.5
184: 1st, 4.0
197: 3rd, 2.0
285: 1st, 2.5
 
NCAA Championships

125: --
133: 1st, 2.5
141: 6th, 1.0
149: 8th, 1.0
157: 1st , 1.0
165: R12, 1.0
174: 1st, 2.5
184: 1st, 3.5
197: 4th, 2.0
285: 2nd, 3.0
 
NCAA
133 - 1st, 3.5
141 - 5th, 1.5
149 - 7th, 2.0
157 - 4th, 3.0
165 - R12, 1.0
174 - 1st, 3.0
184 - 1st, 4.0
197 - 5th, 2.5
285 - 1st 2.5
 
NCAA Championship

125: --
133: 1st
, 3.5
141: 6th, 1.0
149: 8th, 1.0
157: 4th, 2.0
165: R12, 0
174: 1st, 3.0
184: 1st, 4.0
197: 5th, 1.0
285: 2nd, 3.0
 
NCAA
133 - 1st, 3.0
141 - R12, 1.0
149 - 5th, 2.0
157 - 2nd, 2.0
165 - 7th, 1.0
174 - 1st, 2.0
184 - 1st, 3.5
197 - 4th, 2.0
285 - 2nd, 2.5
 
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NCAA

125: --
133:
1st, 3.0
141: 5th, 1.0
149: 8th, 2.0
157: 4th, 2.5
165: R12, 1.0
174: 1st, 2.5
184: 1st, 3.5
197: 4th, 1.0
285: 2nd, 2.5
 
NCAAs
125-next year😄
133-1st 3
141-4th 0
149-8th 2
157-3rd 2
165-rnd 12 0
174-1st 3
184-1st 4.5
197-5th 2
Hvy-2nd 3
 
2023 NCAA Championship

125:
133: 1st, 2.5
141: 6th, 1.0
149: R12, 1.0
157: 3rd, 2.0
165: 8th, 1.0
174: 1st, 2.0
184: 1st, 2.5
197: 4th, 1.0
285: 2nd, 2.5
 
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