5 Year Lineup Projection SWAG

[Sean Harp]

Lineup SWAG spreadsheet

Enjoy it for what it is... an off-season fool's errand.

Thoughts on the projection, FWIW:

• Among the Smurfs, I chose Teske as the career 125, projected Teasdale as a 125/133 tweener, Bravo-Young at 133/141, and Busiello at 141/149. Picturing Busiello at 149 is difficult but that's four years in the future.
• Cortez is not projected to be in the lineup. It's hard to picture him weathering a full season.
• Verkleeren is projected to inherit 149 from Retherford.
• Brady Berge is not listed other than as a red-shirt this year. Between Berge, Joe Lee, and Mason Manville, somebody is going to get squeezed. The omission of Berge is arbitrary. It could be any of them.
• Cenzo, Nolf, Hall, Nickal, Rasheed, Cassar, and Nick Nevills are projected to finish their careers at their current weights. "If it ain't broke..."
• Beard is projected to be the heir apparent to Nickal. Like McCutcheon, Beard appears to be too short for 197.
• Aaron Brooks is built like a 197, which I expect him to be after a year at the OTC and another red-shirting.
• In the interim, Rasheed is projected as the starter next year. Though I believe Cassar has more upside potential, he has to depose the All-American first.
• Heavyweight was as easy as plugging in the next Nevills.

Please fire away and poke holes in whatever logic I attempted to apply above.

The spreadsheet is shared and can be edited by anyone. If you want your own sandbox, feel free to download the file. It's there to be enjoyed.

Cheers.

Sean

 

[LemonPie]

Good work. Hopeful to see Starocci's name in place of Manville soon. I'd expect to see Brooks at 184.

 

[Lion8286]

• Cortez is not projected to be in the lineup. It's hard to picture him weathering a full season.

Isn't it already a known that Cortez is transferring?

 

[Johnbrooks]

Yeah, switch Brooks and Beard. Aaron should come in 2019 around 190 for 184.

 

[Sean Harp]

Good work. Hopeful to see Starocci's name in place of Manville soon. I'd expect to see Brooks at 184.

Thanks LP. Does Beard strike you as being large enough for 197?

Admittedly the closest I have ever been to the lad was from the stands at WNO and Hoffman makes most men look short.

 

[Sean Harp]

Yeah, switch Brooks and Beard. Aaron should come in 2019 around 190 for 184.

Go for it, JB. The sheet is open for editing.

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

Isn't it already a known that Cortez is transferring?

I thought he was just gonna move on from wrestling

 

[LemonPie]

Thanks LP. Does Beard strike you as being large enough for 197?

Admittedly the closest I have ever been to the lad was from the stands at WNO and Hoffman makes most men look short.

I think so. He said he was weighing like 200 in a recent interview. Not sure how tall he is, but he seems taller than McIntosh, and don't think he's shorter than Brooks.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

Cortez is not projected to be in the lineup. It's hard to picture him weathering a full season.

He was part of those honored on Senior Day, at the Buffalo dual. He's moving on.

• Beard is projected to be the heir apparent to Nickal. Like McCutcheon, Beard appears to be too short for 197.

• Aaron Brooks is built like a 197, which I expect him to be after a year at the OTC and another red-shirting.

It's always a challenge to project what teenagers will weigh after a few years in college. All we can do is track what they've wrestled in HS, and project from there. In that vein:

Brooks
Senior - wrestled 182
Junior - wrestled 160
Soph - wrestled 145
Fresh - wrestled 126

Beard
Senior - wrestled 195
Junior - wrestled 195
Soph - wrestled 182
Fresh - wrestled 170

For the purposes of this review, I'm using the weight class they wrestled in the MPSSAA Championships, or the National Prep Championships, respectively.

It seems that Beard is far more likely to be at 195 than is Brooks, but only time will tell.

 

[crockster]

• Not sure why you leave out Berge. He will wrestle 149 or 157. Berge bigger prospect coming in than Joe Lee and has been in the room for a year. Truth is we don't know and to leave him out of the conversation is doesn't make sense.

 

[Sean Harp]

He was part of those honored on Senior Day, at the Buffalo dual. He's moving on.



It's always a challenge to project what teenagers will weigh after a few years in college. All we can do is track what they've wrestled in HS, and project from there. In that vein:

Brooks
Senior - wrestled 182
Junior - wrestled 160
Soph - wrestled 145
Fresh - wrestled 126

Beard
Senior - wrestled 195
Junior - wrestled 195
Soph - wrestled 182
Fresh - wrestled 170

For the purposes of this review, I'm using the weight class they wrestled in the MPSSAA Championships, or the National Prep Championships, respectively.

It seems that Beard is far more likely to be at 195 than is Brooks, but only time will tell.

Good points Tom. Come to think of it, Zahid was a Smurf not so long ago so yeah, tough to say. Thanks for the supporting logic for Beard at 197.

 

[Sean Harp]

• Not sure why you leave out Berge. He will wrestle 149 or 157. Berge bigger prospect coming in than Joe Lee and has been in the room for a year. Truth is we don't know and to leave him out of the conversation is doesn't make sense.

No argument here. We most definitely do not know, hence the "fool's errand" caveat.

Feel free to edit the spreadsheet as you see fit.

 

[El-Jefe]

Go for it, JB. The sheet is open for editing.

Appreciate what you did here. Fun discussion.

As a courtesy, we might not expect a parent of one of the wrestlers to edit the spreadsheet.

 

[Sean Harp]

Appreciate what you did here. Fun discussion.

As a courtesy, we might not expect a parent of one of the wrestlers to edit the spreadsheet.

Glad you enjoyed it, EJ. Also, thank you for clarifying that John is the father of Aaron.

Brooks and Beard have been edited accordingly.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Brooks is going to be a matchup problem for other teams. Thrilled he chose us. Inventive and very athletic. Casey and crew will have a fun time helping him improve

 

[Ja1339]

Cool stuff. I believe you may have given Manville an extra year of eligibility.

 

[garw]

Next year
125-Teske
133-Teasdale
141-RBY has the frame to fill out
149-Berge
N Lee redshirt
19/20
125-Teske
133-Teasdale
141-RBY
149-N Lee
157-Berge

 

[El-Jefe]

Brooks is going to be a matchup problem for other teams. Thrilled he chose us. Inventive and very athletic. Casey and crew will have a fun time helping him improve

 

[dunkej01]

• Not sure why you leave out Berge. He will wrestle 149 or 157. Berge bigger prospect coming in than Joe Lee and has been in the room for a year. Truth is we don't know and to leave him out of the conversation is doesn't make sense.

nothing wrong with your thought. however, joe lee has been the room a year too. He also has more college match experience than berge. so for the random fan/poster, its not a huge leap to see berge get forgotten about.

 

[burnsie1983]

I'm pretty concerned about the 23-24 lineup. Only 2 scoring wrestlers. I hope Cael and the other coaches have a plan to correct this.

 

[Sean Harp]

I'm pretty concerned about the 23-24 lineup. Only 2 scoring wrestlers. I hope Cael and the other coaches have a plan to correct this.

The 7th seal has been broken. We shall now suffer locusts, plague, and bad jokes about full-court presses and poop-liners. May the gods have mercy on our souls.

 

[Sean Harp]

Cool stuff. I believe you may have given Manville an extra year of eligibility.

Nice. Glad you enjoyed it.

Regarding Manville, I believe he is eligible for an Olympic red-shirt for the 19-20 season. Would one of our brethren please clarify this for us?

 

[kjb32812]

Do people think Cassar is going to stick around?

 

[CoastFan]

Tom's obviously correct when he mentions the difficulty of projecting future college weights by high school weight classes. Some kids are close to fully grown much earlier than others. Here's a video of a "long ago" match between Ohio high schoolers David Taylor and Logan Stieber - at 103 lbs.

(Just as an aside, believe both turned out to be fairly good in college. )

 

[tikk10]

Yeah, switch Brooks and Beard. Aaron should come in 2019 around 190 for 184.

Well yeah, but what do you know?

JUST KIDDING! Can't wait to see Aaron in blue and white, dad.

 

[crockster]

nothing wrong with your thought. however, joe lee has been the room a year too. He also has more college match experience than berge. so for the random fan/poster, its not a huge leap to see berge get forgotten about.

I just don’t see Berge being forgotten at all. He was a top 5-10 recruit. It will be interesting how this plays out.

 

[Wrestler2u]

Can you make room for McHenry please.

 

[Media Fan]

Isn't it already a known that Cortez is transferring?

believe he graduated or graduates and not coming back.

 

[nitlion6]

nothing wrong with your thought. however, joe lee has been the room a year too. He also has more college match experience than berge. so for the random fan/poster, its not a huge leap to see berge get forgotten about.

Me being wrong is always a distinct possibility, but i believe it is also quite possible Berge has been asserting himself in the room. Maybe not beating Nick, but definitely figuring it out.

 

[RoarLions1]

Nice. Glad you enjoyed it.

Regarding Manville, I believe he is eligible for an Olympic red-shirt for the 19-20 season. Would one of our brethren please clarify this for us?

Not eligible yet, too early I believe. Following is the criteria to wrestle in the 2018 World Team Trials...

1. Any past USA World/Olympic medalist from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 (Senior, University/U23, Junior, Cadet – this includes Greco-Roman & Men’s Freestyle). Must be age eligible.
2. 2017 & 2018 University/U23 Greco-Roman Nationals Top 3 place finish
3. 2017 & 2018 Senior Greco-Roman Pan American Champions
4. A Top 3 place finish in a UWW international tournament in Europe, Asia or Cuba. This is applicable to both Greco-Roman and Men’s Freestyle events. The international tournament must be within two years of the 2018 Senior Greco-Roman World Team Trials. The event must be included on the UWW calendar.
5. 2016 Greco-Roman Olympians
6. 2016 Greco-Roman Non-Olympic Weight World Team Member
7. November 2017 Dave Schultz Memorial International - the highest placed Greco-Roman USA athlete per weight category winning a medal who has yet to qualify will earn a spot in the 2018 World Team Trials
8. March 2018 Bill Farrell Memorial International Open - the highest placed Greco-Roman USA athlete per weight category winning a medal who has yet to qualify will earn a spot in the 2018 World Team Trials
9. The top 7 wrestlers from the 2017 & 2018 U.S. Open in Men’s Freestyle & Greco-Roman will qualify to compete in the 2018 Senior Greco-Roman World Team Trials
10. 2018 Interservice Top 3 finish
11. 2018 NCAA Division I All-Americans

 

[Sean Harp]

Thorough as always, Roar.

Danke mein Herr.

 

[Sean Harp]

Can you make room for McHenry please.

Would love to W2u! Unfortunately, the prevailing opinion (I think) is that he is Cornell's to lose.

 

[Wrestler91]

I thought someone stated that Beard was deferring enrollment?

 

[Eastern HWT]

Beard, Brooks and Nevills are all deferring enrollment until 2019-2020!

 

[nitlion6]

Beard, Brooks and Nevills are all deferring enrollment until 2019-2020!

I haven't seen anything about Nevills deferring enrollment. I am fairly positive he signed and returned his National Letter of Intent

 

[LemonPie]

Beard, Brooks and Nevills are all deferring enrollment until 2019-2020!

CASSAR TO 285 CONFIRMED

 

[Roar More]

The spread sheet shows Beard wrestling for five years.

 

[dicemen99]

I haven't seen anything about Nevills deferring enrollment. I am fairly positive he signed and returned his National Letter of Intent

Signing a letter of intent would not impact his ability to defer enrollment. That said, this is the first time I've heard that Nevills is doing this and it doesn't really make a lot of sense given that Nick is a SR next year. The other two are deferring.

 

[nitlion6]

Signing a letter of intent would not impact his ability to defer enrollment. That said, this is the first time I've heard that Nevills is doing this and it doesn't really make a lot of sense given that Nick is a SR next year. The other two are deferring.

I thought I read the reason Beard had not signed and returned his was because he was deferring enrollment and did not want to start his clock.

 

[lockhavenlion3]

Signing a letter of intent would not impact his ability to defer enrollment. That said, this is the first time I've heard that Nevills is doing this and it doesn't really make a lot of sense given that Nick is a SR next year. The other two are deferring.

agree. would think they'd want to have snacks in the room for a year before taking over when nick leaves.