Allocations for Nationals
- Thread starter Annieat285
- Start date
Hmmm
for the B1G:
125 - 7
133 - 9
141 - 7
149 - 6
157 - 7
165 - 6
174 - 9
184 - 7
197 - 6
285 - 7
Overall, there are 284 AQs, so there will be 46 at-large bids.
for the B1G:
125 - 7
133 - 9
141 - 7
149 - 6
157 - 7
165 - 6
174 - 9
184 - 7
197 - 6
285 - 7
Overall, there are 284 AQs, so there will be 46 at-large bids.
285:
Snyder - Ohio State
Coon - Michigan
Stoll - Iowa
Kroells - Minny
Smith - Rutgers
Nevills - PSU
Jensen - Nebraska
Peck - Maryland
Black - Illinois
Horwath - Wisky
That's my ranking of the guys. Assuming Nevills' conditioning is good by B1Gs, he has an excellent change of making NCAAs.
165:
Jordan - Wisky
BoJo - Ohio State
Rodrigues - Illinois
Perrotti - Rutgers
Welch - Purdue
Wilson - Nebraska
Morelli - Penn State
Sutton - Michigan
Krone - Minny
Rhoads - Iowa
That's my ranking of the B1G guys. With only 6 AQs, Geno is going to have to have to wrestle above seed, and/or hope some of the higher guys get upset.
All true, and right where the guys want it...in their control. Good luck, Nits!!
Beating Wilson should be a winnable task for Morelli should they meet up. I think Wilson is overrated and the best win of his career probably came at nationals when he beat Moreno
How about Gillibon at 141 (sp)? The Rutgers site is predicting they will get 9 into the NCAAs.
Morelli and Nevills not ranked by coaches. Gulibon not ranked by RPI, Morelli 9th, Nevills not enough matches. Wonder if Geno's winning % was high enough for him to earn an AQ?
7 seems like the best we could hope for at 41. I can see Gulibon going off and finishing 4th or not qualifying. Who knows
Rutgers has had a pretty good year. My quick take on what you're reporting.
125:
B1G gets 7
Rutgers has McCabe, who I would rank behind NaTo, Gilman, Nico, Lambert, Oliver, Youtsey, and pretty much even with Jimenez. McCabe could get in, but he's right on the edge
133:
B1G gets 9
Rutgers has Giraldo, who I would rank behind Richards, Clark, Conaway, DiJulius, Montoya, Taylor, Alexander, Malone, and Bruno. Like McCabe, Giraldo could get in, but he's right on the edge.
141:
B1G gets 7
Rutgers has Ashnault. He's pretty close to a lock. The only guys in the B1G I'd have ranked ahead of him are Micah Jordan and Thorn.
149:
B1G gets 6
Rutgers has Dippery, who I would rank behind Zain, Sorenson, Sueflohn, Tshirt, Pantaleo, Short, Griffin, and he's pretty even with Crone. Like McCabe and Giraldo, Dippery could get in, but he's right on the edge
157:
B1G gets 7
Rutgers has Lewis, who I would rank behind Nolf, and IMar. Lewis has an excellent shot, but Ryan, Cooper, Murphy, and Berger are about even with him, and Mascolo isn't that far behind.
165:
B1G gets 6
Rutgers has Perrotti. He should get in, as the only guys I'd rank ahead of him are Jordan (Wisky), BoJo, and Rodrigues, with Welch being pretty close and Wilson not all that far behind.
174:
B1G gets 9
Rutgers has Bakuckas, who I would rank behind Nickal, Brunson, Meyer, Jackson, Barnes, and Wanzek. Robertson and Morrissey are pretty even with Bakuckas. With 7 AGs, and Bakuckas being about the 7th guy, he should get in.
184:
B1G gets 7
Rutgers has Gravina, who I would rank behind Abounader, Cutch, Brooks, Miklus, Dudley, and Courts. Koepke is pretty even with Gravina. As such, Gravina is right on the edge
197:
B1G gets 6
Rutgers has Hyrmack. McIntosh, Pfarr, Burak, Studebaker, Huntlery, and Martin, at a minimum are ahead of him. He's going to need a miracle to qualify
285:
B1G gets 7
Rutgers has Smith, who I'd rank behind Snyder, Coon, Stoll, and Kroells. The odds are greatly in his favor of qualifying.
So to summarize, Rutgers might get 9 to qualify, but they would need almost everything to fall in place for that to happen.
Just 1 month ago it seemed we had no chance to qualify at HWT. Recent injuries to Stoll and Jensen could make his path that much easier.
The way the season started I never imagined we might not qualify at 165. With 5 top-8 wrestlers in the Big and only 6 spots it's a real possibility.
I'm not even going to speculate on 141. I recently read that Jimmy had zero TDs in February. I like the way he pushed the pace against Heil, but no TDs in 4 straight matches (?) ... wow.
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Based on those numbers, 165 looks like it might the biggest long-shot for a PSU AQ. I believe Geno's overall record is 17-6 (74% winning percentage). Would he be likely to get an at large if he comes in 7th at b1g's?
I think we should go with Rasheed. He can pin a guy at anytime and get in.
So does Geno.
I think Rasheed can win one. I guess the big question... who can win 2.
I think Geno showed he can wrestle for 7 minutes for an entire tournament in both the NLO and SS where he was the highest PSU finisher at both Tournaments (1st at NLO and 5th at the Scuffle). SR didn't even make the podium at the Scuffle losing in Consi Rd 6. RS again disappointed in his latest tournament action the U.S. Collegiate Championships.
Geno had a really nicely executed TD against Isaac Jordan, so I think he's capable, Cael and company need to convince him to shoot more often and not be overly concerned about making a mistake. I thought it was telling in his recent interview, that he wished he would have came to Penn State earlier and that he thinks he has improved so much in our room. I hope he gains enough confidence in time for the Big10.
Keep in mind, the NLO was little more than an inter-squad meet at 165 ... 4 Nittany Lions in the semis. His win over Rasheed remains his best win of the year.
2 - 8 overall against ranked wrestlers (Rasheed and #20 Gabbo are the wins)
Also remember Gino had a much easier draw than SR at the Scuffle. His path to 5th place was met with losses to the only 2 ranked kids he faced (#11 Staudenmayer and #15 Pickett), then a win by inj default for 5th.
Except for Dieringer Gino has wrestled everyone tough. The problem is you don't get points for close losses, nor do you advance.
I'm not second guessing Cael's decision, just recognizing that Gino needs to wrestle his best of the year if he's going to earn a spot.
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Confidence is HUGE!
He and Jimmy channel their emotions positively and don't get down on themselves when mistakes are made they will both be fine.
It's tough to be that guy on a team full of superstars. Hard to understand but it truely is.
Cael might not be able to coach but his zen game is very strong. The whole team will be ready
Phil Jackson pretty much proved a strong zen game can accumulate championships by the basket full.
Huh? SR has shown repeatedly he can't go more than about 4 minutes of actual wrestling IN ONE DAY - he can't even wrestle one complete match in a day without gassing for starting midway through the 2nd period! That does not work in a "tournament" setting - just absolutely does not work or compute in a tournament setting. IOW, in a tournament setting like B1Gs and NCAAs, RS is good for his 1st Rd match only, potentially not even that if his oppenent is able to take him the distance, after that he is absolutely toast. If his 1st Rd match takes him deeper than 4 minutes at either B1Gs - or perhaps more importantly at the NCAAs - which is very likely, he is at best a 50/50 shot to lose and get upset. Beyond that, even if he hangs on for the win (as he has done in most of the dual matches that he's won which have gone the distance), he is a mortal lock to lose his next match......and then his first Consi Bracket match. The odds of SR going either 0-2 or 1-2 at either of the post-season tournaments is far higher imho than Geno going 0-2 or 1-2. In terms of either of these two even getting to a 4th match, the probabilities are much higher with Geno imho - you not only have to have the potential to beat somebody, but in a tournament you have to be able (and expect to) wrestle more than 4 minutes in one day.
Did you even read my entire post? You'll note I said that I'm not second guessing Cael's decision. I Know all about SR's gassing issues.
Cael has been consistent when it comes to tourney selections ... English over AA. Frey over DA, Morelli over SR ... he wants a wrestler ready to go 7 minutes.
The point of my post was to point out that, IMO, you are giving Morelli to much credit for winning the NLO and finishing 5th at the Scuffle. I'm more concerned about how he has fared against top-15 wrestlers (0 - 8), because he will need to beat out at least one of them for an AQ spot.
It will be a great story if his post season goes the way of James English, but from what he has shown so far, finishing as a NQ is very much a possibility.
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He may well finish as a NQ, but his probability of getting CLOSER than SR is better! SR is a probable NQ as well given the the B1G wrestlers at the weight and the fact that he can't wrestle effective more than 4 minutes in a single day (including if he needs to hang in victory). 1 win, and a 1-2 record, will not qualify anyone. You keep effectively saying that SR has a higher probability of going deeper at a tournament than GM and the body of evidence of both wrestlers "tournament history" does not support that claim - quite the contrary. BTW, SR not only didn't finish 5th at the Scuffle.....nor 7th as GH did......he didn't even make it to the "podium round"....he lost R12 at the Scuffle. Most of the available evidence suggests that the "ceiling' for SR in the post-season tournaments is 1-2 due to his complete inability to wrestle more than 4 minutes in a single day when "pressed" and forced to wrestle "all out". My point is that the evidence absolutely suggests that GM has a significantly "higher ceiling" via the capability to upset people (which he absolutely has) as well as the motor to wrestle multiple tough, close matches. Will he reach that "ceiling"? I have no idea, but at least he has a pretty good upside and ceiling if he wrestles "lights out".
all right, you guys have me confused.....has the decision been made at 165, or has it not?
and if it has...who is it?
and if it has...who is it?
The prematch interview did not air before the Okla. St. dual, due to the stream being late to go on the air. However, during the broadcast Ironhead said several times that CS had indicated that the decision had been made, and it was Morelli. That was the same day as the Open in CO, where Rasheed had a couple of pins but ran out of steam in his last match. Ironhead seemed to imply that the PSU coaches had been watching Rasheed's matches in the Open.
Heard it mid-week too. Done deal. Always feel bad for the "other guy", but the guy that goes is ALWAYS better because of those that push him. Makes B1G's and NCAA's a 31-man result, and not a 10-man result. We (fans) should show appreciation for every kid on the roster.
For the seeding gurus - Will Cael have to make a case for Nevills not to be matched up against Coon in his first bout? What are the chances one or two (or more) other BIG heavies will be seeded below Nick, given his modest resume?
I do think Rasheed can win more than 1 match. He is very dangerous. Tough decision.
Not a guru, but Coon and Snyder most likely get seeded 1,2 and therefor both get byes. If he gets seeded 12th or 13th he'll most likely get smith or kroells.
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