Every offseason, GIA proclaims Iowa will score 170 pts.
Now they have to find another 3 pts, somehow.
AS THE BIRD TURNS (IOWA STUFF)
- Thread starter Lyco1990
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Now they have to find another 3 pts, somehow.
Respectfully, I disagree.
He was 4-1 against qualifiers, the only loss being Plott at 184. He beat a semifinalist at 174.
I don’t see that as a write in finalist. But I see that as someone who going into the NCAA tournament would have been identified as a more likely than not placer (depending on seeds/matchups obviously).
I turn this around and wonder, up until 3 weeks ago, would Rocco Welsh have been thought of having a higher 2024 tournament ceiling than Gabe? And why?
Ok, yeah, this isn’t the quarantined one!This is the AS THE BIRD TURNS thread. Not the pre-school thread.
You literally described a borderline AA above.
Yes, I could agree with you that if the NCAA decides to put 3 returning national champs on one side of the bracket and dump Arnold on the other side with a bunch of borderline AA types, he is equal as likely as any of them to reach the finals.
You are citing a SV over Lenny Wolak as evidence he is better than a borderline AA. I would cite the same victory as evidence he isn't. Wolak is a nice story at this year's championship but has 4 years of history that we can look at that doesn't even really say AA.
Put it this way, I don’t think Welsh AA was surprising at all. Was a 6 seed, had a good year, got a great draw for sure. But it was easy to see for most the year he’s not an easy guy to beat.
I don’t think (and maybe Welsh jumped levels in the last month) there’s been a time in the last few years Welsh is better (perhaps even, but not better) than Gabe. Hence, I think it’s more likely than not Gabe finds the podium barring a nightmare draw.
Rocco could have easily found himself outside the podium. He won like 3 straight matches in OT. I think someone posted on here that Welsh had something like 2 TDs in regulation time in his last 10 bouts ( I don't remember the exact stat). He'll likely have to make a jump if he wants to see the finals again unless he gets another dream bracket.
It's possible but it doesn't make him any better than he is now. If you have Kennedy and him wrestle 10 times, who's winning 6.
Rocco certainly benefited from the bracket being so lopsided. 3 former champs and none on his side.
As far as Gabe goes. He had a good redshirt year. But a whole season of competition every weekend is different than some scattered matches.
I think (correct me if I’m wrong) our difference of opinion is one where I think it takes a bad draw (think the 8 seed this year) to keep either off the podium, you see it as it takes a good draw to get either on it.
Yes, but remember…this was his first year. You haven’t factored in the Iowa regression that will inevitably occur.
Let's look at a more normal draw:
Had Carter not gotten hurt:
- Welsh is the 7. He gets Lewis in the quarters (L), Sax in R12 (W), DeVos next. If he wins that, he gets Ruth in the consi semis, likely capped at 4th. If he loses, he gets Pasiuk in the 7th place match.
- Wolak is the 8. If he gets past Kemp (not a given), he gets Carter in the quarters (L), then Kennedy in R12. If he loses to Kemp, he's gotta beat Augustine and Gaitan just to reach R12. Either way, him making the podium is in the "stuff happens" category.
Had Carter been the 7 instead of getting re-seeded:
- Welsh would've gotten Carter in the semis (L). He's probably in the 4-6 range.
- Wolak is the 8. Same as above, except Lewis instead of Carter.
Either way, Welsh makes the podium -- though the big assumption is that he keeps winning so many Lewan matches. Wolak maybe makes it but is unlikely.
Also, both guys benefited from 174 being badly seeded (and not just Carter). Before the tourney, Conigliaro was not the 5th best guy in the country; Wolak was not the 7th best; neither was better than Kennedy, etc. This was a bracket that got blown up before the action started, first by the seeding math, and then by the idiotic decision to re-seed Carter.
Both of you guys need to factor in the high potential for injury under Brands’ brutal and physically exhausting training approach.
Yep.
I expect full on shoulder braces for Gabe by this Fall, which I fear will slow down his pace immensely.
Perhaps he’ll have to wrestle more defensively then. Wonder what that will look like? Probably make Lewan look like Nolf.
I actually think that Rocco will end up the same way. I kind of see both guys as attempting to win matches 3-2 or 4-2.
Ex Hawk wrestler bringing the heat:
23 of 32 (72%) Sanderson AA's who wrestled for Sanderson for more than 2 seasons recorded their best NCAA placement as a Senior (or in their final or most recent season).
14 of 34 (41%) Brands AA's who wrestled for Brands for more than 2 seasons recorded their best NCAA placement as a Senior (or in their final or most recent season).
wahlberg
All-Conference
I also posted the following (for a comparison):
23 of 32 (72%) Sanderson AA's who wrestled for Sanderson for more than 2 seasons recorded their best NCAA placement as a Senior (or in their final or most recent season).
14 of 34 (41%) Brands AA's who wrestled for Brands for more than 2 seasons recorded their best NCAA placement as a Senior (or in their final or most recent season).
I'm guessing this includes Sanderson's time as coach with ISU? At PSU, it is even better, if my calculations are correct:
36 Different All Americans
14 One Time All Americans (Vallimont, Cyler, Long, D Alton, English, Gulibon,Lawson, Rasheed, Cassar, Beard, SVN, Kasak, MM, Truax)
Only Ones that "Regressed" according to his definition below. No way Cenzo. Hall, or RBY regressed. They just lost to a superior opponent that one day
-Cenzo: 1,1,2
-Hall: 1,2,2
-Nick Nevills: 5,7
-RBY: 8,1,1,2
-Max Dean: 1,7
-D. Alton: 3,DNP,DNP
-Gulibon: DNP,5,DNP,DNP
-Rasheed: 7,DNP
| Dan Vallimont | 2 | |||
| Frank Molinaro | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cyler Sanderson | 6 | |||
| Quentin Wright | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| David Taylor | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Long | 3 | |||
| Ed Ruth | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nico Megaludis | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Dylan Alton | 3 | DNP | DNP | |
| Matt Brown | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Zain Retherford | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| James English | 7 | |||
| Morgan McIntosh | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Jordan Conaway | 8 | 6 | ||
| Jimmy Gulibon | DNP | 5 | DNP | DNP |
| Jimmy Lawson | DNP | 6 | ||
| Jason Nolf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bo Nickal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Vincenzo Joseph | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mark Hall | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nick Nevills | 5 | 7 | ||
| Nick Lee | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Shakur Rasheed | 7 | DNP | ||
| Roman Bravo-Young | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Anthony Cassar | 1 | |||
| Carter Starocci | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Beard | 7 | |||
| Greg Kerkvliet | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Max Dean | 1 | 7 | ||
| Beau Bartlett | 3 | 2 | ||
| Shayne Van Ness | 3 | |||
| Levi Haines | 2 | 1 | ||
| Tyler Kasak | 3 | |||
| Mitchell Mesenbrink | 2 | |||
| Bernie Truax | 5 |
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these guys will have a 2-1 score can't tell who will win!
I'm hearing whispers on "GIA", that Caliendo is going down to 157 to make room for Kennedy. So I immediately think two things: Siebrecht is gone, and Caliendo just went down a weight only to get teched or majored 3 more times to Mesenbrink 😂
It would make some sense to move a kid or two around to get as much of their talent on the mat at the same time. Caliendo never looked small at 165 though and I imagine he may appear emaciated at 157.
Of course I don't think it is to make room for Kennedy as much as making room for Arnold. The reason Kennedy wrestled 174 for the Hawks this year was because he was their best 174 pounder. If Kennedy doesn't have a spot below 174 he will be their 174 pounder again.
He better be. It's their only hope to avoid a shutout at the BJC next year. That's IF Cael decides they are worthy of the BJC instead of Michigan.
Iowa will have a shot at 125. If they don't win that match it will be a whitewash.
Any and all speculation about Caliendo to 157 was created by a few posters frantically attempting to get Brands, Arnold, Kennedy, and Caliendo into the lineup next year. I think it's a great move to have their best wrestler, who is a very bulky 165, cut down to 157. Think Chance when John Smith made him cut to 157.
Arnold is not a finalist. PK wrestled 174 this past season because PK was the best 174 pounder in the Iowa room. To become a finalist would require a ton of development and there certainly is not a ton of history indicating that room can take a (at best) low podium AA type of guy and develop him into a top of the podium AA guy.
Brands possibly getting an extra year and Ferrari on the team essentially blocks 184. So unless Caliendo can actually Oklahoma State his way down to 157 allowing PK to slot into 165 there is no spot for Gabe Arnold in the 2024-25 Hawkeye lineup.
Has Christian Pyles ever ask Tom and Terry if they have a plan?
Well, that's an upgrade over AJ and Fredo being on a mission to self-destruct.
I predict this guy will be VERY much like his brothers. He's just been better at keeping it hidden but it won't be long now.
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Just an opinion, but this Ferrari will be the Hawk that starts at the weight he wants. The rest will slot in appropriately.
The exception is if Nelson gets an extra year. Even if he can't beat Ferrari Nelson will be chewing the line.
I meant toeing the line.
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