I didn't factor in transfers. My point is simply that with PSU's resources and talent level I believe that they should beat the lowest tier of BiG teams 90% of the time, they should beat the middle tier of teams 65% of the time, and they should be the top tier of teams 30% of the time. There's nothing scientific about those percentages but they seem reasonable. I think a team with 12th ranked classes should have enough talent to beat teams with 5th ranked classes 30% of the time. The talent level is close enough for that to happen, especially when playing at home, in years with more returning seniors, or in years where the higher ranked team has injuries or makes mistakes.
I think PSU has had top 10 talent the last few years, mostly on the strength of their 6th ranked class from 2022. That class included Allen, Singleton. Sutton, Carter, and Allar. I also think PSU has done well in the portal by picking up kids like Ebiketie & Chop. But typically PSU has been closer to 11th-15th in talent. I'm concerned that PSU will be limited to that 11-15 range going forward because of NIL money. They have a lot more than most schools but not nearly as much as teams like Oregon or OSU.