Bill Connelly gives projected odds of Penn State making College Football Playoffs

[Judge Smails]

Greater than 50% chance of making playoff with loss to OSU is interesting.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ines-arguments-dominate-november?platform=amp

13-0 Penn State: 99.6%
12-1 Penn State (Big Ten champ with regular-season loss to Minnesota): 94.9%
12-1 Penn State (loss in Big Ten championship game): 81.2%
11-1 Penn State (loses to Ohio State, doesn't reach Big Ten title game): 59.2%

 

[acg116]

Greater than 50% chance of making playoff with loss to OSU is interesting.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ines-arguments-dominate-november?platform=amp

13-0 Penn State: 99.6%
12-1 Penn State (Big Ten champ with regular-season loss to Minnesota): 94.9%
12-1 Penn State (loss in Big Ten championship game): 81.2%
11-1 Penn State (loses to Ohio State, doesn't reach Big Ten title game): 59.2%

Must be lots of assumptions built into that last one...I can't see how we have a greater than 50% chance if we lose to OSU. Maybe a close loss, but why isn't LSU in ahead of us (assuming they have one loss, that being to alabama)?

 

[fairgambit]

If Clemson goes unbeaten, I put them at 100%. Regardless of schedule, I don't see how you can keep the defending National Champion out of the final 4 at 13-0.

 

[cjrugger]

Must be lots of assumptions built into that last one...I can't see how we have a greater than 50% chance if we lose to OSU. Maybe a close loss, but why isn't LSU in ahead of us (assuming they have one loss, that being to alabama)?

Yes, the assumptions are 'every college football game yet to be played this year'. A lot can happen

PS- I'd actually love to see us go 13-0 and get left out. You'd just have to laugh

 

[psuro]

PS- I'd actually love to see us go 13-0 and get left out. You'd just have to laugh

WTF?

 

[Judge Smails]

I'd actually love to see us go 13-0 and get left out.

 

[Ohio_Pirate]

There's a 0.40% chance of that happening apparently.

The > 50% chance of getting in this loss to OSU is very interesting indeed.

 

[interrobang]

Someone just needs to upset Clemson. They have no business being ranked that high with that soft schedule.

 

[Pennstate52]

If Clemson goes unbeaten, I put them at 100%. Regardless of schedule, I don't see how you can keep the defending National Champion out of the final 4 at 13-0.

That’s the problem- defending national champs- no no no- in the world of playoffs it should be based on CURRENT season and that alone- last season was exactly that last season- otherwise Clemson and bama can play the easiest schedules every year and guarantee a playoff spot year after year

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Must be lots of assumptions built into that last one...I can't see how we have a greater than 50% chance if we lose to OSU. Maybe a close loss, but why isn't LSU in ahead of us (assuming they have one loss, that being to alabama)?

Because they actually suck.

 

[PennState_one]

Someone just needs to upset Clemson. They have no business being ranked that high with that soft schedule.

But they're the reigning national champs lol... but seriously, living in Clemson territory, I agree with you. I root against them every week for that exact reason. Unfortunately though, I believe they are still one of the top 5 teams and would be a tough out for anyone...

I actually feel the same about PSU... it will take an opponent to have one helluva game to beat them.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

If Clemson goes unbeaten, I put them at 100%. Regardless of schedule, I don't see how you can keep the defending National Champion out of the final 4 at 13-0.

as long as 50% or less of the Clemson squad passes a PED test. I agree.... Phuck Clemson and Dabo Swineheart.

 

[Option Bob]

I don't understand why being the "defending national champion" has any bearing on the current season. In CFB, no team's current roster is ever identical to the previous year's roster. Sometimes, not even the assistant coaches are the same.

Hence, why would Clemson's 2019 team automatically be considered as good as its 2018 team? Especially since the Tigers lost so many top-level defensive players from 2018.

In CFB, teams should be ranked solely on how they perform this year ... history should really be irrelevant.

 

[wrm125]

There's a 0.40% chance of that happening apparently.

The > 50% chance of getting in this loss to OSU is very interesting indeed.

if you look back at the past few seasons’ CFP teams, an 11-1 PSU would’ve made it some years, not others. It’s possible. About 50% chance seems right to me unless PSU is just not at all competitive with OSU. Gotta beat Minnesota and Indiana first though, likely but not givens IMO.

 

[Keyser Soze 16801]

Stupid analysis; typical of ESPN. Here is a list of the years that two Big 10 teams have made the playoff:

 

[mrmk5110]

Close loss to Ohio State, then you would need Alabama to lose to both LSU and Auburn, LSU lose to I guess A&M?, then have whatever slop team wins the East beat LSU.

Quite the long shot. I'd be content with the rose bowl if they go 11-1

 

[Ughhh]

Stupid analysis; typical of ESPN. Here is a list of the years that two Big 10 teams have made the playoff:

Right it hasn’t happened all of five times so it will never happen

 

[NittanyOpp]

Must be lots of assumptions built into that last one...I can't see how we have a greater than 50% chance if we lose to OSU. Maybe a close loss, but why isn't LSU in ahead of us (assuming they have one loss, that being to alabama)?

Because Ohio St is better than Bama

 

[NittanyOpp]

I don't understand why being the "defending national champion" has any bearing on the current season. In CFB, no team's current roster is ever identical to the previous year's roster. Sometimes, not even the assistant coaches are the same.

Hence, why would Clemson's 2019 team automatically be considered as good as its 2018 team? Especially since the Tigers lost so many top-level defensive players from 2018.

In CFB, teams should be ranked solely on how they perform this year ... history should really be irrelevant.

Why preseason polls should be abolished. Creates false narrative which we all know too much about media created false narratives

Shouldn’t be a poll until mid-oct

 

[Nitwit97]

Must be lots of assumptions built into that last one...I can't see how we have a greater than 50% chance if we lose to OSU. Maybe a close loss, but why isn't LSU in ahead of us (assuming they have one loss, that being to alabama)?

I believe these computer models project losses onto the SEC schools- there are scenarios where Bama could lose 2, etc. that is why you still have a 59% chance. If we had to lose one, being to Minnesota would be best. It would mean you are big ten champ, probably avenging that loss in title game, and you have time to climb back up the hill, as it were

that said, I prefer the undefeated route a lot better!!

 

[blion72]

Yes, the assumptions are 'every college football game yet to be played this year'. A lot can happen

PS- I'd actually love to see us go 13-0 and get left out. You'd just have to laugh

the only way for that to happen is one or more 1 loss teams get in ahead of us. Bama/LSU loser, Bama loses in SEC champ game, LSU loses in champ game, Oklahoma, Oregon, OSU (who we would have beaten). As Jed said on call in yesterday's call in show the "game control" argument is going to become a differentiator at some point. not sure what the committee uses for that metric and how that would impact us. tOSU was ahead of us in 2016 even though we won game, but I recall that committee referring to that win as lacking aspects of a playoff team.

 

[aferrelli]

Why preseason polls should be abolished. Creates false narrative which we all know too much about media created false narratives

Shouldn’t be a poll until mid-oct

I hope that never happens. I love the polls, deal with it.