We always knew losing David Taylor to one of the top three or four jobs would be one of the biggest threats to our dynasty, but I actually think the timing couldn’t have been better for us.
I really think the only way you can bring down Penn State right now is a move that directly takes something from us. Losing Casey would’ve been that move. Other than that, the only way to really stop this train for the next three or four years is to convince a guy like Mesenbrink, Levi, or Lilledahl to transfer. That elevates your program while directly hurting us. I don’t see any of the above wrestlers leaving Penn State unless they lose their spot. Ryder might be the only sort of guy that I think Taylor could flip, but does that really hurt us? The 165/174 log jam is the one place we could lose multiple guys and still be OK.
I think the timing of the hire was good for us for many reasons:
1. First one is obvious. Hiring a coach a few days AFTER the portal window closes is really bad management. If you hired Taylor a week ago, you may have been able to ride some momentum and get a PSU kid to make a quick, foolish decision. I’m not saying Levi or Kasak would’ve done that, but hiring the guy after the portal has been closed takes away that opportunity. I’m sure Cael already had a plan for getting these guys in the lineup the next two years, but if not, now he has a year to get this stuff figured out. Huge missed opportunity by Oklahoma State.
2. NIL timing. OSU will need to splash cash in the NIL marketplace. The earliest OSU could do this and target our guys is after next season. With Carter, Kerk, and Beau graduating, that’s potentially $2 million (Starocci reportedly got $1.25m this year) worth of NIL that will be available for us to use to retain our young studs. I keep saying it, but hiring a coach a few weeks ago and giving him an NIL war chest maybe could have convinced some guys to look at OSU. Right now the majority of our roster can’t wrestle at Oklahoma State next year even if they wanted to. This also gives us a whole year to plan and fundraise on the NIL side. Having Taylor go to Oklahoma State is probably a pretty easy talking point for Cael when he asks the big donors for more cash for NIL.
3. Again Taylor needs momentum. Maybe five or 10 years ago teams could’ve thought they were a piece or two away from catching us. Taylor will try to take us down when we are at a moment of strength that has rarely ever been seen in college wrestling.
Right now teams are literally 100 points behind us. And frankly, the next 3 years aren’t gonna be much different. This is actually a pretty young team. Next year we will start three seniors (Beau, Starocci, Kerk), 0 to 2 juniors (Nagao and Levi, tho it’s no guarantee either start in 2025), 3-5 sophomores, and 2 freshman.
To put it a different way, AFTER 2025 Lilledahl, Davis, SVN, Kasak, Mesenbrink, Facundo, and Barr all have at least 2 more years of eligibility. Levi might have 2 left as well if he redshirts. Plus we are probably redshirting Davis, Kasak, Sealy, Ryder, and the Mirasola’s. And we are already loading up on the next class.
The earliest chance Taylor could really gain some team momentum is 2028. That’s why winning some individual titles is so important for the next 3 years. If he hasn’t won a few individual championships these next 3 years, there’s gonna be a lot of questions about his college coaching ability.
Taylor will only have so much goodwill before questions are asked. Especially since boosters went over the head of their legend of a coach and brought in a guy with literally zero college coaching experience. Plus, Taylor is not a cowboy. When it’s one of your own, you might be more patient. When you overpay for someone outside of the organization, patience can wear thin quickly. It’s clear Taylor won’t win a team title for several years, but he has to show some improvement pretty quickly.
If they don’t land Allirez, there’s not a single guy on that roster that is even close to being a title contender. Even if they do land Allirez and he wins the title, it’s not like Taylor will get much credit for that. He was already a champion. Recruits want to see you take a guy who was a top 5 p4p recruit and turn him into a multiple time champion. If all you’re doing is offering big NIL money, but not developing guys, you’re just Michigan. If Taylor shows no improvement on the team level or individual level for 3 years, that’s not good.
Timing can be everything, and I think Oklahoma State missed an opportunity by a few days. The timing may have not mattered, but they’ve severely limited his options at a time when he needs to build as much momentum as possible.
