Early Big Ten predictions

[jack66]

125 - 1. Tomassello 2. Gilman 3. Delgado 4. Conaway (I think the new stalling rule will hurt the ankle rider more than anybody.)

133 - 1. Gulibon 2, Dardanes 3. Sabatello 4. Richards

141 - 1. Steiber 2. Dardanes 3, Ashnault 4. Dziewa (Moss 7th)

149 - 1. Sorenson 2. Tsirtsis 3. Beitz 4. Pantaleo (I don't think H Steiber will be ready to go)

157 - 1. Martinez 2. Ness 3. Green 4. Murphy (PSU ??????, I'll guess 8th))

165 - 1. I Jordan 2. B Jordan 3. Harger 4. Morse (Hammond gets 7th in a tough weight class)

174 - 1. Brown 2. Kokesh 3. Storely 4. Evans (Evans costs Iowa a team point for extracurricular activities)

184 - 1. Abounder 2. Brooks 3. Pfarr 4. McCutcheon

197 - 1. Snyder 2. McIntosh 3. Schiller 4 Burak

285 - 1. McMullan 2. Medbery 3 Telford 4. Lawson

Team - A tight race with fewer than 15 points seperating 1 to 4..

1. Iowa 2. PSU 3. OSU 4. Minny (3 champs is not enough for the Buckeyes to overcome Iowa's depth and PSU's bonus points.)


This post was edited on 2/23 9:33 PM by jack66

 

[pabison]

Lawson most likely 5th. You forgot Coon at 285.

 

[lioncrebs]

Im sorry, but if we finish 2nd, i'll be as happy as a pig in sh@*!! Go LIONS!!!!

 

[Jaybird319]

Not unreasonable. Forgot Taylor at 133

This post was edited on 2/24 7:12 AM by Jaybird319

 

[jack66]

Originally posted by Jaybird319:
Not unreasonable. Forgot Taylor at 133

This post was edited on 2/24 7:12 AM by Jaybird319

Yes, I was just looking at his recent results. He could easily place anywhere in the top 4.

 

[jack66]

I think PSU is helped by the fact that the Big Ten is so balanced this year. Head to head against Iowa, Minny and OSU we come in 2nd. In a tournament setting though there will be good wrestlers from other schools to muddy the waters.

For instance, OSU

In the dual Courts squeezed by Cutch (team score OSU 3 - PSU 0). In a tourney though I don't see Courts, with his style of wrestling, outscoring MM. If H. Steiber is at 100% my prediction for OSU goes out the window, but with the assumption he is not Bietz outscores them at 149. I just don't see them outscoring us at 133, 149, 174,184 or 285 (we should keep it close at 125 and 197).

Minny is not much different, all their scoring has to come from 6 wrestlers. If they come up with 5 finalists and 2 or 3 champs they could win it all. Anything less will make it tough.

Obviously I was wearing slightly tinted glasses ... we could easily slip to 4th or below with a poor showing ... but after the last 4 years I'm betting Cael has the guys primed.

 

[seeyajohn]

In addition to being optimistic I think your notion that somehow we will have a bunch of bonus points is wrong. Bonus points come from the dominant wrestlers - Steiber, Martinez, Jordans. PSU's bonus point machines graduated last year.

 

[jack66]

But our style of attack has not changed.

No doubt the loss of Taylor and Ruth will have a negative affect on our bonus production, but when I watch the tentative/ wrestling from other teams I still like our bonus potential.

Bonus points can also come in the consis, it happened at Scuffle vs Missouri. No doubt Missouri is a tough team, they probably beat us in a dual, but their style is to wrestle low-scoring matches.

I know Missouri is not in the Big Ten, but except for a few individuals on Iowa, Minny and OSU, they too wrestle a very defensive style. I just think if we get a chance for bonus our kids are generally more likely to go for it ... it's what Cael teaches.

This post was edited on 2/24 11:21 AM by jack66

 

[jammenz]

Walsh will pin one of your top 165ers.

 

[Lattner]

Uh oh, be careful jammy, your IQ is fast approaching 20!

 

[Media Fan]

Me too re us finishing in that spot. Hope springs eternal.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Originally posted by jack66:
But our style of attack has not changed.

No doubt the loss of Taylor and Ruth will have a negative affect on our bonus production, but when I watch the tentative/ wrestling from other teams I still like our bonus potential.


This post was edited on 2/24 11:21 AM by jack66

That logic doesn't make much sense, on a couple levels:

Firstly, skill is far more important than style. You can be aggressive as hell, but if you don't have the goods you're gonna get countered.

Secondly, the tentative (read "defensive") wrestling of a lot of opponents makes it hard to score bonus against, unless (again) you are very skilled.

Bottom line, PSU does not have a lot of bonus point potential. We may get some bonus in the early rounds, but certainly nothing like we saw in the last 4 years, and a lot less than a team like tOSU, who has four guys capable of scoring a lot of match points.

 

[jack66]

Originally posted by BruceK-PSU83:

Originally posted by jack66:
But our style of attack has not changed.

No doubt the loss of Taylor and Ruth will have a negative affect on our bonus production, but when I watch the tentative/ wrestling from other teams I still like our bonus potential.


This post was edited on 2/24 11:21 AM by jack66

That logic doesn't make much sense, on a couple levels:

Firstly, skill is far more important than style. You can be aggressive as hell, but if you don't have the goods you're gonna get countered.

Secondly, the tentative (read "defensive") wrestling of a lot of opponents makes it hard to score bonus against, unless (again) you are very skilled.

Bottom line, PSU does not have a lot of bonus point potential. We may get some bonus in the early rounds, but certainly nothing like we saw in the last 4 years, and a lot less than a team like tOSU, who has four guys capable of scoring a lot of match points.

You're forgetting about wrestle backs. A lot of people seem to ignore the bonus point opportunities in the under-card ... a wrestler doesn't necessarily have to be elite. Those points were the difference at last year's NCAAs and this years Scuffle.

Taylor and Ruth were special talents, they had the ability to get bonus points in the championship bracket. The 4 Buckeyes you speak of could likely get a 1st round bye, and other than Steiber I don't see them dominating beyond the quarters.

Tourney time is what Cael trains for year around, and pushing the pace for 7 minutes is a big part of that. Courts and Cutch have similar talent, but IMO if either has a 5 point lead in the 3rd period, Cutch is more likely to go for the bonus ... it's what he's been coached to do ... it's what all our kids are trained to do.

I could be wrong, but I need to see us fail in a tourney before I will believe we won't be in the hunt to the end..

 

[Cowbell Man]

Originally posted by jack66:

….. it's what all our kids are trained to do.

I could be wrong, but I need to see us fail in a tourney before I will believe we won't be in the hunt to the end..

Yup. And the coaches agree with you.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Originally posted by jack66:

Originally posted by BruceK-PSU83:

Originally posted by jack66:
But our style of attack has not changed.

No doubt the loss of Taylor and Ruth will have a negative affect on our bonus production, but when I watch the tentative/ wrestling from other teams I still like our bonus potential.


This post was edited on 2/24 11:21 AM by jack66

That logic doesn't make much sense, on a couple levels:

Firstly, skill is far more important than style. You can be aggressive as hell, but if you don't have the goods you're gonna get countered.

Secondly, the tentative (read "defensive") wrestling of a lot of opponents makes it hard to score bonus against, unless (again) you are very skilled.

Bottom line, PSU does not have a lot of bonus point potential. We may get some bonus in the early rounds, but certainly nothing like we saw in the last 4 years, and a lot less than a team like tOSU, who has four guys capable of scoring a lot of match points.

You're forgetting about wrestle backs. A lot of people seem to ignore the bonus point opportunities in the under-card ... a wrestler doesn't necessarily have to be elite. Those points were the difference at last year's NCAAs and this years Scuffle.

Taylor and Ruth were special talents, they had the ability to get bonus points in the championship bracket. The 4 Buckeyes you speak of could likely get a 1st round bye, and other than Steiber I don't see them dominating beyond the quarters.

Tourney time is what Cael trains for year around, and pushing the pace for 7 minutes is a big part of that. Courts and Cutch have similar talent, but IMO if either has a 5 point lead in the 3rd period, Cutch is more likely to go for the bonus ... it's what he's been coached to do ... it's what all our kids are trained to do.

I could be wrong, but I need to see us fail in a tourney before I will believe we won't be in the hunt to the end..

I'm not forgetting about wrestle backs. I'm saying that PSU doesn't have a lot of bonus point potential, period, certainly no more than most other top teams in the B1G and National tournaments. And I'm saying this is more a matter of skill and less one of style. How many bonus points has PSU scored in B1G matches? Some, but not a great deal that I recall.

And you mention McCutcheon. How many bonus points has Mouse secured in BiG matches? And when was the last time he was ahead by 5 in the 3rd period?

 

[NoVa Lion]

Originally posted by BruceK-PSU83:


I'm not forgetting about wrestle backs. I'm saying that PSU doesn't have a lot of bonus point potential, period, certainly no more than most other top teams in the B1G and National tournaments. And I'm saying this is more a matter of skill and less one of style. How many bonus points has PSU scored in B1G matches? Some, but not a great deal that I recall.

And you mention McCutcheon. How many bonus points has Mouse secured in BiG matches? And when was the last time he was ahead by 5 in the 3rd period?

In 9 BIG duals we have gone 62-28. 38.7% of those 62 wins were by bonus, 14 majors, 2 techs, and 8 falls. McCutcheon went 5-4 in BIG duals with 1 major and 1 fall and just 3 duals ago he beat #26 Rizqallah 8-2 so he was ahead by 5 or more in the 3rd. I don't have time to research the bonus points of all the other teams but I think we stack up pretty well. Certainly we are not the bonus machine we have been in recent years but to say we don't have a lot of bonus point potential, period, is based on your recall and is not supported by the facts.

 

[jack66]

Bruce

Do you deny that Cael teaches a more offensive style of wrestling than most other coaches. Being aggressive and going for points is not something you turn on or off at will.

Of course skill has a lot to do with a teams ability to score bonus points, what I'm saying is when we get a mismatch we are more likely to go for it. MM will be pressed to finish in the top 4 at Bigs, but if you look at his season, his 4 B10 losses were to the top 4 ranked 184 pounders. That leaves 9 others, 5 of them he beat, 2 he bonused and 4 he has yet to face. I see bonus potential there in the wrestle backs ... even though he is not the most talented wrestler at the weight.

Two years ago Matt Brown scored as many team points as Chris Perry even though he came in 2nd to Perry. He didn't score all those extra bonus points because he was more talented than Perry, it was because he is coached to attack and not wrestle on the edge like so many other teams.

This post was edited on 2/26 9:44 AM by jack66

This post was edited on 2/26 9:46 AM by jack66