If I was RutgersAl I'd say we're going 15-0 and have no concerns whatsoever. RutgersAl made these predictions based on previous teams coming off 4-6 win seasons and the recruiting being in I'd assume the 50s or worse every year. We're not even coming off only a top 10 recruiting class but the last few recruiting classes have all been top 20. We're also coming off 2 seasons where we've gone 22-5. I'm not even predicting we'll be 15-0 with a national title but the fact that some people are calling for a 7-5 season with 4 of our top 5 toughest games at home just amazes me. Btw I wasn't saying you were Eeyore it's mostly the OP (and a few others).
Expectations for this PSU team getting out of hand
- Thread starter tboyer
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If I was RutgersAl I'd say we're going 15-0 and have no concerns whatsoever. RutgersAl made these predictions based on previous teams coming off 4-6 win seasons and the recruiting being in I'd assume the 50s or worse every year. We're not even coming off only a top 10 recruiting class but the last few recruiting classes have all been top 20. We're also coming off 2 seasons where we've gone 22-5. I'm not even predicting we'll be 15-0 with a national title but the fact that some people are calling for a 7-5 season with 4 of our top 5 toughest games at home just amazes me. Btw I wasn't saying you were Eeyore it's mostly the OP (and a few others).
Expectations are way out of hand or at least unrealistic. (more so btw on the pay board) Lets see, we lose the best RB in a decade or more and the best TE in 2018 and the O will be better?? We lose two D tackles, 4 DBs, and several LBs and the D will be better?? Have trouble with that.
I don't necessarily disagree with your overall point. I'm concerned about the middle of our defense.
On the other hand we are strong at the most important positions on the field.
Quarterback
Offensive Line
Defensive End
Cornerback
I totally disagree with your concern about wide receiver. With Juwan Johnson and likely Justin Shorter(by midseason) we could actually have a one of the bigger WR tandems in college football. I don't actually think we need more size at the other spots because we have Johnson as our #1.
On the other hand we are strong at the most important positions on the field.
Quarterback
Offensive Line
Defensive End
Cornerback
I totally disagree with your concern about wide receiver. With Juwan Johnson and likely Justin Shorter(by midseason) we could actually have a one of the bigger WR tandems in college football. I don't actually think we need more size at the other spots because we have Johnson as our #1.
Hard for me to picture losses in the pre-conf. @Pitt possibly but I think PSU will be stronger and could be overpowering at the LOS this year (the reverse of 2 years ago).
If there are losses it will come from: OSU, @Michigan, MSU, Iowa, @Indiana, Wisconsin..... We know what OSU will be. UM is totally impossible to predict. MSU and Iowa are not nearly as much of a threat at the Beav. Indiana I'm guessing we've seen the high water mark for that program, but if not, they can be tough at home. Wisky probably will be very good but the Beav is tough for them.
If I had to bet it would be 2-3 losses, no B1G championship but another quality bowl. With as much change as there is in the PSU program, 2 losses is a good reload season.
It's not idolatry. UM has a lot of talented players returning. I think they return 9 on defense (Gary, Bush, Hudson, Hill). They have a WR (Black) returning from injury and I'm assuming Patterson will be eligible at QB. Althon has UM ranked #7 (OSU #3, WISC #8, MSU #10, PSU #11). That's 4 opponents ranked higher than PSU so I don't see why a 9-3 prediction is overly negative.
I agree that PSU has a better thing going on for the next few years. But this year I think UM has the upper hand at home with lots of upperclassmen.
I'm not really predicting trouble. I think the ceiling is potentially really high for wideout assuming JJ is healthy and Shorter (and maybe George) ready to play. Thompkins, Polk and Hamler will be very good but they have to have some tall people out there to stretch the D.
It's a POTENTIAL worry because if the freshman aren't ready and JJ isn't healthy, they don't have the size they've had, and that is a big factor in this offense.
UM was very talented last year, but also very young. I agree that they will be a tough out in AA as well, but I don't expect a blowout in that game either. MSU, OSU, PSU, or UM could win the east this year and it wouldn't be a shock to anyone to be honest.
I've been completely unimpressed by Harbaugh's coaching so far, but Michigan has as much talent on its roster as PSU does, maybe more, and Harbaugh's got his back to the wall in the way that Franklin did two years ago. Harbaugh has made the coaching moves he needs to try to fix that offense.
I don't think anybody can predict what Michigan will be like, but simply based on their raw talent they have the potential to be really good. If they aren't, Harbaugh will be gone. This is the make or break year.
People draw way too many conclusions from one game. Just because PSU blew out Iowa in 2016 doesn't mean PSU is that much better than Iowa (which we found out when PSU went to Kinnick). Just because PSU blew out Michigan last year doesn't mean they can't come back really tough this year. The margin between winning a game by 21 points and losing a game is a lot slimmer than it looks.
I don't think it's unreasonable to think the offense CAN be better. McSorley has a chance to be an all-time PSU great and he just happens to play the most important position on the field. If he continues to progress, the sky is the limit for this offense. The OL will be deep and have a number of players who have played a lot of football. And I am one who did not shed any tears when JoeMo left. I'm excited to see the changes Rahne brings and if the bowl game is any indication, that excitement is justified. I think we'll have more than enough offense to allow a green but awfully athletic defense to find its way. Should be a fun season.
I look at it this way. The Penn State program in 2018 feels a lot like it did in the late 1970's to me. The team is as talented as the best teams in the country and is led by a young, energetic, charismatic coach. Most importantly, the program is HUNGRY to take the next step towards making the CFB playoff and a national championship. No one is resting on the laurels of past success, which tends to happen to even the best of programs from time to time. As a result, no one on our schedule really wants to play us, particularly at Beaver Stadium. Can't wait for the season!
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
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+1, except MSU. They may end up being good or very good, but I don’t see them winning the east. Still up for grabs though...
Michigan being ranked #7 is an absurdity based on their track record. What did Athlon have them at last year, preseason? Probably the same dumb top 10 prediction. Athlon can write what they want, but until Harbaugh can finish better than 3rd in his own division, I won't drink the Michigan kool aid. I was listening to Mark Packer, the afternoon college football guy on ESPNU last week, and he doesn't see Michigan finishing better than 3rd in the division again. He's right!
They return a ton as well this year and outside of one bad year Dantonio has done more with less IMO. I wouldn't put them as the favorite, but they certainly have an outside shot at this.
Plenty of talent on this roster. PSU is getting to the point of reloading versus rebuilding at most positions. Playmaking quarterback is the #1 position in college football and PSU has one in Trace that is both a proven playmaker with a ton of experience. That alone makes them a viable contender in any game. Oline returns 5 guys with starting experience (Bates, Gonzo, Wright, Fries, and McGovern) with multiple underclassmen to provide some high quality depth. Sanders was the #1 RB in the area a few years ago and learned from the best PSU has ever had, not concerned about Sanders ability to make plays. Defensive end position is going to be really good and getting to the QB is probably the #1 requirement of a good defense. Cornerback play is also going to be elite.
I don't see any possibility of a September road game loss. We play Illinois and the hapless pitters on the road in September. Both these games will be scrimmages against glorified high school teams before the real season starts with Ohio State.
Buchholz said that Hansard is stuffing OL during the one on one drills. He indicated that Hansard is a real stud DT in the works. 318 lbs. and quick.
"I don't think it's unreasonable to think the offense CAN be better".
We lose the best offensive player in the history of Penn State football.
We lose the best catching tight end in the history of Penn State football.
We lose a record setting wide receiver who played at a level very very close to the best wide receivers in the history of Penn State football ...
All three of those players were on the field at the same time and accounted for a huge percentage of the yards, first downs, and scoring for Penn State the past two years (especially 2017) ... we lose all of them at once and you really think we can be better? Really?
In addition, we lose a very proven offensive coordinator, a quality wide receiver coach, and a running back coach. I don't know what that impact will be, but I am willing to bet we won't "be better".
I expect we will score fewer points, gain fewer yards, and have a smaller scoring margin than 2017. Do I think we are going drop to a 5 or 6 loss season? No, but I am in the 8-4 to 10-2 range with an expected 9-3 record.
The offense can be better.
Simply:
Trace and the OLine should only be better, and Gesicki, who wasn't really used all that well, is the only big loss, considering that Sanders has a ton of tools.
Nobody we lost on defense was that great, as the draft will show. Allen may go in the first few rounds, but had deficiencies.
I don't think anyone should be fearful of doing worse than last year, provided that the coaches do their jobs, and injuries don't pile up.
Trace and the OLine should only be better, and Gesicki, who wasn't really used all that well, is the only big loss, considering that Sanders has a ton of tools.
Nobody we lost on defense was that great, as the draft will show. Allen may go in the first few rounds, but had deficiencies.
I don't think anyone should be fearful of doing worse than last year, provided that the coaches do their jobs, and injuries don't pile up.
There are no guarantees in sports, but I think things would have to go terribly wrong to only get to 7 wins.
- any one concerned about the WR position is crazy. This will be one of the strengths of the team
- We have a 3 year starter at qb who can read defenses very well
- oline should be a big strength
- definite unknown at RB, but talent is there
- TE could have better blocking but definite concern but this team will not be lacking playmakers catching the ball
My real concern is the Defense up the middle.
-Windsor and Givens will be a step up in talent from last years starters of Cothran and Cothren. The problem is the depth, but the talent is better than its ever been
- Lb is a concern. I think athletically we will be better but the experience will hurt early
- I’m not concerned about DB at all. In fact, I think it will be really really good
- at safety, I loved Marcus Allen’s personality and run support, but I think he was a weakness in coverage. Apke was a complete unknown last year. He was ok. I think the potential for more INT’s in the secondary is there
- any one concerned about the WR position is crazy. This will be one of the strengths of the team
- We have a 3 year starter at qb who can read defenses very well
- oline should be a big strength
- definite unknown at RB, but talent is there
- TE could have better blocking but definite concern but this team will not be lacking playmakers catching the ball
My real concern is the Defense up the middle.
-Windsor and Givens will be a step up in talent from last years starters of Cothran and Cothren. The problem is the depth, but the talent is better than its ever been
- Lb is a concern. I think athletically we will be better but the experience will hurt early
- I’m not concerned about DB at all. In fact, I think it will be really really good
- at safety, I loved Marcus Allen’s personality and run support, but I think he was a weakness in coverage. Apke was a complete unknown last year. He was ok. I think the potential for more INT’s in the secondary is there
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To me, it's easy. The Lions will be 12-0. That's the way I look at every season. Why go nuts looking at the schedule and trying to figure out Ws and Ls?
Don't forget we have an OC with one game of play calling under his belt against an overmatched Wasington team on a neutral field.
Good breakdown. The younger less experienced players will have to mature quickly for this team to win 10 games. The talent is there, but an injury @ any of those positions you highlighted could be troublesome.
Wasn't that "overmatched" Washington team ranked in the top 5 in total defense? And the fact that we have a new OC is one of the reasons I think our offense has a chance to be better.
Since it's clear you didn't even read my post, no sense in going back and forth. But you're right, we lost a lot on offense. Not saying it definitely will happen but the whole can certainly be better than the sum of the parts. I don't think that concept is really that shocking. And having a 3 year all-B1G calibre QB at the helm makes the idea even less shocking.
Boy would it be nice to knock off OSU and resume control of the Big Ten in a rebuilding year. That game at the Beav is going to be gigantic.
Indeed it was. I hope you are right. As they say, that's why they play the games.
Don’t shoot me for being the messenger, but I suspect this year’s offense is going to be more “run-centric” with the pass coming off the combination of (a) PSU wanting to establish a reliable running game, and (b) teams not knowing who to defend other than Saquon.
+1....A lot of the experts who picked Washington over us did so because of the reputation of their defense. They looked very marginal against our offense. 579 yards or so.
I suspect we will miss SB’s very-overlooked receiving yards, but there is NO DOUBT in my mind we will rush for more yards this year than last year because 1) the OL has to be better 2) any blocking from the TE position will be an improvement and 3) our OC is not going to start every fudging running play with our QB & RB meeting at “x”, counting 1-1,000, 2-1,000 and 3-1,000.....and then deciding who is going to run the ball!
I don’t even try to analyze or predict any longer. I just enjoy the ride once football season starts and hope it is a great one.
FSU lost a top qb in the first game and had to play a true freshman. That's not us.
9-3 is not the floor...last year that was the floor. 4 or 5 losses, while not likely, is absolutely possible with this team. This team, on paper, isn't as good as last year's team which went 10-2.
That was a great day for the PSU O-line, almost kind of a milestone game. They really handled some highly regarded D-tackles and very good linebackers. If that was a taste of what they'll be able to do this fall, the PSU offense is going to be a real problem for most teams.
If the PSU O-line can get to the top tier of B10 lines this year -- and that seems to be a realistic goal -- then games against mid-tier defenses just aren't going to be very suspenseful, which I would love. I would love to tune into PSU-Maryland every year knowing it will be a blowout.
My York Brethren! I love your optimism.
I expect a 9-10 win season, and I will be damn proud to be wrong when we take the natty!
Just remember these are kids and the team in skill positions is now young once again. The good news is that this time around, we had chance to build real depth and experience prior to our starters being thrust out onto the field. 9 wins, 10 with a bowl win. Higher if we avoid a throwaway loss and we beat UM/OSU and MSU (in particular).
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