But he was at 133 last year after bulking up. It has been a long time since he wrestled an NCAA match at 125. Plus he has been injured and not many know how he is progressing. My thing is I remember Gilman wearing him out in the 2016 NCAA semis and then pinning him. That was like two years ago. I guarantee you Suriano, Lee, Lizak, and Cruz could all pose problems for Nato. Fix beat him in two straight matches too. All that said no way Nato deserves the number one ranking. Period. All these other dudes are actually on the mat wrestling.
Fan Discussion - Recent Rankings and PSU vs tOSU
- Thread starter RoarLions1
- Start date
But he was at 133 last year after bulking up. It has been a long time since he wrestled an NCAA match at 125. Plus he has been injured and not many know how he is progressing. My thing is I remember Gilman wearing him out in the 2016 NCAA semis and then pinning him. That was like two years ago. I guarantee you Suriano, Lee, Lizak, and Cruz could all pose problems for Nato. Fix beat him in two straight matches too. All that said no way Nato deserves the number one ranking. Period. All these other dudes are actually on the mat wrestling.
Keep in mind. I said I have no problem with the ranking. Just as I would have no problem if it were Nick or Cruz.
The preseason ranking is body of work. NATO earned that. If he doesn’t wrestle come Jan 1 at 125 then I’d knock him down.
My prediction...
Nick
Lee
NATO
Picc
Cruz
Lizak
Someone already pointed out Tomasello won it as a 125 freshman.
I agree with the Cruz and Hall takes.
Rankings are purely subjective. If a kid won a weight last year I think it only makes sense to keep him ranked first as long as he continues to win. A bit more objective.
Here's my beef with the rankings: inconsistent "policy".
Every year, folks gripe about freshmen not being included in preseason rankings. The defense is that the rankings are based strictly on performance -- they are not predictions.
NaTo hasn't competed this season. Fausz hasn't competed in an official capacity this season. Yet a ranking service like InterMat is including them in the rankings. In doing so, they are predicting that the wrestlers will be back in the lineup and at top condition.
But then they stop short of predicting that PDIII will be eligible to wrestle for Iowa. Or that Spencer Lee will forego the redshirt.
If the rankigs are not predictions, then guys who aren't wrestling should all be treated the same, IMO -- they should be excluded from the rankings until they are back on the mat in an official capacity and have a result upon which to base an opinion.
Every year, folks gripe about freshmen not being included in preseason rankings. The defense is that the rankings are based strictly on performance -- they are not predictions.
NaTo hasn't competed this season. Fausz hasn't competed in an official capacity this season. Yet a ranking service like InterMat is including them in the rankings. In doing so, they are predicting that the wrestlers will be back in the lineup and at top condition.
But then they stop short of predicting that PDIII will be eligible to wrestle for Iowa. Or that Spencer Lee will forego the redshirt.
If the rankigs are not predictions, then guys who aren't wrestling should all be treated the same, IMO -- they should be excluded from the rankings until they are back on the mat in an official capacity and have a result upon which to base an opinion.
Last edited:
Nothing better than a good math problem to solve first thing on a Tuesday morning ...
While I do agree the NCAA's are NOT a math problem to solve on the mat, but the rankings version is a math problem to solve. tOSU will continue to be #1 until that math problem has a different outcome.
One thing that can occur is a pigtail which could provide additional bonus, however - NO #1 seeds had pigtail draw in 2017 ...
Why did I spend 4 minutes writing this up? It's Dec 12th --- ANYTHING can happen between now and March!
While I do agree the NCAA's are NOT a math problem to solve on the mat, but the rankings version is a math problem to solve. tOSU will continue to be #1 until that math problem has a different outcome.
One thing that can occur is a pigtail which could provide additional bonus, however - NO #1 seeds had pigtail draw in 2017 ...
Why did I spend 4 minutes writing this up? It's Dec 12th --- ANYTHING can happen between now and March!
Nowadays, don't think any of the top16 seeds are eligible for pigtails?
At the end of the day, rankings don't matter!!
It is, without question, the way I view them...though it's time to reveal my thoughts, as it's not really that black-and-white to me. Hopefully this comes across clearly, and in as few words as possible, apologize in advance though, as it might be wordy.
Rankings don't matter
-- They're a little confusing, each with their own set of "rules" to differentiate them from other ranking services. Including/excluding true freshmen in preseason rankings, including/ excluding the All Star results, including/excluding injured wrestlers, etc. Some are driven by math, others by imperfect humans.
-- They do not determine future performance (wins-losses, bonus vs not-bonus, etc.), and don't determine who will win an upcoming bout, especially between closely ranked wrestlers. Seen A beat B, B beat C, and C beat A too often in 44 years of following college wrestling, and a great number of upsets, among other things.
-- Rankings bring the worst out in some fans. Arguments, name-calling, petty bickering over rankings...really? Happens though, right? My recommendation here is to follow the coaches thoughts, rankings don't matter!!
Rankings DO matter
-- No matter how much I say the rankings don't matter, I ALWAYS return to the thought that they do...yet keep my perspective.
-- For reasonable fans, they create conversation, debate, and dialogue. I love this!! For myself, hearing a differing opinion creates understanding, and a fresh way of looking at the rankings, and hopefully my comments do the same with others. Listening to learned folks, who bring to the table fact-based discussion points, is FUN. Yet the opposite, for me, is not true...too much of the kool-aid, colored glasses, whatever, regardless of team, and conversation degrades into a downward spiral. Anger results too often. Sad.
-- Rankings determine seeds. This is mostly factual. Each conference gets to rank each weight class, then those (coaches) rankings are compiled, and it's one factor in determining seeding at NCAA's. For 2017-18, for example, PSU (Cael, Cody and Casey) will rank 174, with other B1G coaching staffs responsible for the other 9 weights. I am confident in saying that most staffs use "rankings" from their favorite services to determine their coach's rankings. How else could they do it, not seeing many of the wrestlers during the season? And at the end of the day, seeds do matter, therefore rankings matter!!
It is, without question, the way I view them...though it's time to reveal my thoughts, as it's not really that black-and-white to me. Hopefully this comes across clearly, and in as few words as possible, apologize in advance though, as it might be wordy.
Rankings don't matter
-- They're a little confusing, each with their own set of "rules" to differentiate them from other ranking services. Including/excluding true freshmen in preseason rankings, including/ excluding the All Star results, including/excluding injured wrestlers, etc. Some are driven by math, others by imperfect humans.
-- They do not determine future performance (wins-losses, bonus vs not-bonus, etc.), and don't determine who will win an upcoming bout, especially between closely ranked wrestlers. Seen A beat B, B beat C, and C beat A too often in 44 years of following college wrestling, and a great number of upsets, among other things.
-- Rankings bring the worst out in some fans. Arguments, name-calling, petty bickering over rankings...really? Happens though, right? My recommendation here is to follow the coaches thoughts, rankings don't matter!!
Rankings DO matter
-- No matter how much I say the rankings don't matter, I ALWAYS return to the thought that they do...yet keep my perspective.
-- For reasonable fans, they create conversation, debate, and dialogue. I love this!! For myself, hearing a differing opinion creates understanding, and a fresh way of looking at the rankings, and hopefully my comments do the same with others. Listening to learned folks, who bring to the table fact-based discussion points, is FUN. Yet the opposite, for me, is not true...too much of the kool-aid, colored glasses, whatever, regardless of team, and conversation degrades into a downward spiral. Anger results too often. Sad.
-- Rankings determine seeds. This is mostly factual. Each conference gets to rank each weight class, then those (coaches) rankings are compiled, and it's one factor in determining seeding at NCAA's. For 2017-18, for example, PSU (Cael, Cody and Casey) will rank 174, with other B1G coaching staffs responsible for the other 9 weights. I am confident in saying that most staffs use "rankings" from their favorite services to determine their coach's rankings. How else could they do it, not seeing many of the wrestlers during the season? And at the end of the day, seeds do matter, therefore rankings matter!!
TRUE, changed a couple years ago. Here's the language from the Manual...
"Further, all pigtail (play-in) matches will be randomly selected from the pool of unseeded wrestlers."
Im interested a little in how this the NWCA all star match doesnt count. If Mark and Valencia go undefeated through conferences it means they both beat Bo twice plus everyone else put in front of them.
Does mark get the #1 seed since last year isnt supposed to count or does Valencia get it because NWCA isnt supposed to count.
Im guessing there will be a strong SOS push by those pushing for the #1.
Does mark get the #1 seed since last year isnt supposed to count or does Valencia get it because NWCA isnt supposed to count.
Im guessing there will be a strong SOS push by those pushing for the #1.
Seems like a done deal they will hold the all star match against Mark. Unless BoJo screws up it will be a Mark BoJo semi. I don't see Mark or Zahid dropping anything this year and I see BoJo rising to the occasion. This semi will be boring-epic- and another chapter in Mark's amazing story.
I'll speculate that is very unlikely to happen.
I don't see it as a done deal. May be wrong, though I believe this is the exact discussion that will happen behind closed doors, assuming both Hall and Valencia are undefeated (long way to go, so just qualifying). The Committee should consider who's the returning champ.
Fyi, the following team's coaches will be doing the Coaches Rankings for 174...
Navy
PSU
Northern Illinois
North Carolina
Appalachian State
South Dakota State
Edinboro
Arizona State
Interesting that both PSU and Arizona State get randomly selected for ranking 174!!
Do PSU and ASU get the weigh in on their own guys or they "go out of the room" like the football playoff committee?
If anyone were to show a willingness to bet against your speculation take the bet. I can not imagine easier made money.
A Valencia Jordan semi would be one for the ages. Jordan was smelling blood in their last match it could be his finest hour beating Zahid to make it onto the big stage. Might happen. I think whoever beats Jordan to get into the finals will have a Psychological edge. Might work better for Mark to be seeded second. Any quarter finals spoilers out there?
You never know when Lewis is going to break someone from top. I count him as a threat. Of course, he is more likely to be a semifinalist against one of the Big 3.
The Coaches Rankings, for each of the eight coaching staffs that provide the information for each weight class, is done in advance, and includes "their guys". Even after that, there can be debate after pre-seeds are done, amongst the coaches, though no public politicking is allowed.
TOM does the sensible thing and removes inactive wrestlers from their rankings.
I still don't see it. Assuming the best (and in this case, what is very likely), Zain and Nolf will bring in about 55 points, which is exactly what they did last year. If Hayes and Jordan both finish 5th (where they are both ranked right now by Flo and Intermat), you're looking at about 11 or 12 points for each of them. Say 23 for them combined, and you have a difference of 32 points. Getting to 40 really would involve a best case for us and a bad (almost worst case) result for OSU.
Although March is a long ways off, the current rankings favor OSU. Nato (ranked 1st) is about 24 points better than the zero points we will get. At 133, Pletcher (4th) will likely bring in about 12 points, to the 3 or 4 points Keener might get. At 141, McKenna (6th) will score 9 or 10, while Cortez or Lee (possibly AA at 8th) is going to get us about 5 or 6 points. At 149 and 157, discussed above, we may have a net gain somewhere in the vicinity of 32. That has us down about 5 points midway through.
165 will be huge in determining the team champion. If a healthy Joseph takes 1st or even 2nd, we could see a gain of 15-20 points. A sub-par Joseph could result in a net gain of only 7-11 points. 174 will also be very telling. A 2nd for Mark and a 3rd for BoJo would give us about an extra 5 points. At 184, Bo beating MyMar in the finals will give us a gain of about 7 points. Using a midpoint for Joseph (13 points) has us up by about 20 points heading into the final two weight classes.
If both Moore and Snyder win, that's a total of about 50 points. Even if Cassar can AA at 8th place, he'll bring us about 6 to 8 points. Nevills taking 2nd or 3rd place will bring us 15-20 points. So that's 21-28 points, which leaves us short by 22-29 in those last 2 weights, and short by 2-9 points overall. I would consider that to be within the margin of error at this early point in the season, but I do think it's off base for any of us to say things have to work out perfectly for OSU in order for them to win it all. As of right now, things just need to go according to seed to make this a dead heat.
Man, don't let the rankings get to you. They are not giving away any points at the NCAA tourney based on rankings. The kids will have to earn it.
Valencia recently did a "7 Minutes" piece with Andy Hamilton and touched upon his matches with Hall and Jordan.
He is a very candid guy, and I found this to be a refreshing read. If you didn't know who was being interviewed, you might assume it was a PSU guy at times...
LINK
Oh, and he comments directly on the All Star match vs. Hall and its relevance to his ranking.
He is a very candid guy, and I found this to be a refreshing read. If you didn't know who was being interviewed, you might assume it was a PSU guy at times...
LINK
Oh, and he comments directly on the All Star match vs. Hall and its relevance to his ranking.
As it plays out we will see.
What could happen is OSU has 10 AAs with 5 champions and we all go "wow.
What probably happens is OSU wrestles a strong tournament and scores a lot of points, but not with 10AAs nor 5 champs and every scenario at every weight is not going to end up with the best possible outcome for every OSU wrestler.
Penn State wrestles a strong tournament and scores lots of points.
It might even come down to whether Spencer wrestles and knocks Tomasello down a step on the 125 podium.
This year should have some team suspense. If so think of the final match. Do people want to see Snyder as the last match against Nevillis? Team title hangs in the balance with whether or not a bonus point is secured?
Maybe the last match is Zain and the team championship is still up for grabs.
My guess is Bo and Myles step center circle and winner takes all. The biggest question may become whether Tommy Ryan postpones his Aruba trip to watch this last match.
I would expect that the last match will be either 184 or 174, depends who is there obviously, but you could make a case for Bo/Myles or Zahid/Mark if it is down to those two. You could even make an argument for 165 if it's Vincenzo/IMAR again.
I would bet heavily it will be World and Olympic Champ Kyle Snyder against whichever overmatched opponent makes it to the finals.
Career accomplishments definitely dictate Snyder as the choice, which is why it will receive significant consideration.
There are other worthy considerations.
Hall vs either Vallencia or BoJo.
Zain wrestling for 3rd title possible 2nd hodge
Nolf for entertainment
Lee vs Rutgers' kid or NATO
Or my choice
Bo and Myles, the history between the two, champ vs champ and team considerations.
Last edited:
Or Heil against anyone. Must grow the sport by showcasing exciting wrestling. (Sorry for typing in a sarcastic tone)
For someone who reveals his sarcastic talent as readily as most people surrender a tooth, you do it very well.
Interesting stat:
Zain and Heil have had an identical number of matches in their careers against guys ranked in the top 20, 39 opponents. Zain has bonused 18 of those guys, and Heil has bonused none. ZERO!
I am shocked that Zain's bonus rate is less than 50% against top 20 guys, simply shocked.
Just checked wrestlestats. Using their results and rankings, including Zain's losses, 13 of the 21 non-bonus matches against top 20 wrestlers happened his true freshman season.
I think this was you're second ironic post in this thread. You hitting the egg nog?
