Fan Discussion - Recent Rankings and PSU vs tOSU

[RoarLions1]

Looked at The Open Mat and the Flo Rankings from December 4th/5th. Huge difference, and I wanted to understand why. Here's some observations (using tournament scoring);

-- Flo has tOSU #1, with 136.5 Points, followed by PSU with 112 Points, sans bonus.
-- TheOpen Mat has PSU #1, with 124.5 Points, followed by tOSU with 107.5 Points, sans bonus.
-- The difference (-24.5 and +17 points) is a whopping 41.5 points, again sans Bonus Points. How can that be?;
(1) Flo includes #1 Tomasello, TOM does not, worth 20 Points.
(2) Campbell is #8 in Flo, and #9 in TOM, worth 3.5 Points.
(3) Cassar is #5 in TOM, and #9 in Flo, worth 8 Points.
(4) Hall is #1 in TOM, and #2 in Flo, worth 4 Points.
(5) Hayes is #5 in Flo, and #8 in TOM, worth 4.5 Points.
(6) ...plus other smaller differences.
(Note: some of the differences are in the opposing direction, in other words make the difference smaller)


Other info from one or both of these rankings;
-- NC State loses the highest number of ranked wrestlers from this year to next (4), followed by Michigan, Ohio State, and Rutgers (3 each).
-- By predicted points, sans bonus, using Flo, Ohio State loses the most (53.5), followed by NC State (37.5), Missouri (32), Michigan (27.5), and Ok State (25.5).
-- Ohio State has all 10 wrestlers ranked top-8 (AA territory) in the Flo rankings.

 

[pish69]

I like to look at these things head to head..best vs best. and try to predict points including bonus..

1. Retherford vs Snyder PSU +3 (how much more I think Zain will score)
2. Nolf vs Moore PSU +5
3. Nickal vs Nato PSU +9
4. Hall vs Martin PSU +5
5 Joseph vs Bojo PSU even
6 Nevills vs Micah PSU + 2
7. Cassar vs Mckenna OSU +2
8. Lee vs Hayes OSU +2
9. Keener vs Pletcher OSU +4
10. Schnoop vs Cambell OSU +6

So based on my unscientific approach I have PSU out scoring their guys 24-14. So I have PSU winning by 10 at NCAA's. Wihtout Lee makes things much closer and if Martin beats Bo or Jordan finishes above Hall we in trouble

 

[jammenz]

While PSU is #2 in informed posters minds, they'll always be #1 in my heart.

 

[OkieSpladle]

Our team rankings (which also don't include Tomasello, but do factor in past performance including bonus points scored) have Penn State at 144 and Ohio State at 130. With a healthy Tomasello, the Buckeyes would have a small lead.

 

[nitlion6]

I simply caulked it up to a driving need by Flo to rank any old OSU ahead of PSU. By March Flo might actually have 7 PSU kids ranked ahead of OSU, with an in season PSU victory to help with their rankings and they will still have OSU ranked ahead of the Lions.

 

[johnstownsteel]

While PSU is #2 in informed posters minds, they'll always be #1 in my heart.

Can you get us a t-shirt printed up for that?

 

[aalion]

Only in Minnesota

 

[greenmanRD]

I like to look at these things head to head..best vs best. and try to predict points including bonus..

1. Retherford vs Snyder PSU +3 (how much more I think Zain will score)
2. Nolf vs Moore PSU +5
3. Nickal vs Nato PSU +9
4. Hall vs Martin PSU +5
5 Joseph vs Bojo PSU even
6 Nevills vs Micah PSU + 2
7. Cassar vs Mckenna OSU +2
8. Lee vs Hayes OSU +2
9. Keener vs Pletcher OSU +4
10. Schnoop vs Cambell OSU +6

So based on my unscientific approach I have PSU out scoring their guys 24-14. So I have PSU winning by 10 at NCAA's. Wihtout Lee makes things much closer and if Martin beats Bo or Jordan finishes above Hall we in trouble

I think this is a fair approach, but probably a generous one for PSU, I usually prefer to do it by class. I don't have the time to do this right now, but maybe will in the future.

With Zain, Nolf, Bo and Hall, we will likely score enough bonus to add another finalist. That very well could be the difference. I also think their bottom of the lineup will suffer from the same thing Okie State did last year. Sure, they could have 10 AAs, but they probably won't since I think at least one of these guys will lose in the consolation round. Granted, Snyder is an auto champ for them unless he gets hurt to the point he cannot compete (I mean he beat Medbery and picked up him up on a single leg with busted ribs). Nato is certainly no worse than a 3rd (with a very good chance to be a champion), Myles is no worse than a 3-4th, Moore is no worse than a 3-4th (with a very good chance to be a champion). They will pack a punch the Cowboys could not do last year.

Whereas I look at PSU, and I see
- 3 finalists (Zain and Nolf - maybe all by bonus, both champs, Bo - all by bonus, may not be champ, but very likely to make the final),
- 1 likely finalist (Hall - made this likely because of Bo and Zahid, depends on draw, but Hall will bonus a lot and the guy just wins),
- [if healthy] another likely finalist (Vincenzo - some good guys at this weight and if he isn't healthy he won't be able to navigate it, but if you can beat IMAR you are a likely finalist imo), and
- 1 possible finalist (Nevills vs. Coon hasn't happened yet, and while I favor Coon, I think Nick at least has a chance, win over Kasper helps his bid for a 2/3 seed).

The X-factors will be Cassar, Keener and Lee/Cortez. I think Cassar can get to AA status, and I believe in Lee's ability to AA as well - I think Lee can get there by the end of the year. I'm more bearish on Keener, but we haven't seen him take on higher level competition yet.

A best case scenario for PSU has 6 finalists and 8+ AAs, which is something Ohio State's, albeit great, lineup cannot do. That said, it'll be a fun NCAA Tournament, as I expect there will be twists and turns along the way.

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

I simply caulked it up to a driving need by Flo to rank any old OSU ahead of PSU. By March Flo might actually have 7 PSU kids ranked ahead of OSU, with an in season PSU victory to help with their rankings and they will still have OSU ranked ahead of the Lions.

CP’s team rankings are based off his individual rankings so that probably wouldn’t be the case

 

[PSUisawesome]

I like to look at these things head to head..best vs best. and try to predict points including bonus..

1. Retherford vs Snyder PSU +3 (how much more I think Zain will score)
2. Nolf vs Moore PSU +5
3. Nickal vs Nato PSU +9
4. Hall vs Martin PSU +5
5 Joseph vs Bojo PSU even
6 Nevills vs Micah PSU + 2
7. Cassar vs Mckenna OSU +2
8. Lee vs Hayes OSU +2
9. Keener vs Pletcher OSU +4
10. Schnoop vs Cambell OSU +6

So based on my unscientific approach I have PSU out scoring their guys 24-14. So I have PSU winning by 10 at NCAA's. Wihtout Lee makes things much closer and if Martin beats Bo or Jordan finishes above Hall we in trouble

Seems like a sensible way to look at the teams from a tournament perspective.

 

[nitlion6]

CP’s team rankings are based off his individual rankings so that probably wouldn’t be the case

Going into the PSU Okie St match last year Flo had 7 Penn State wrestlers ranked ahead of Okie State wrestlers, but still had Okie State ranked ahead of the Lions. So while I was exaggerating a bit, based on recent history my intentional exaggeration is within the realm of possibilities. I do not care what Willie or CP claim to the contrary, everything they do is done with an agenda that includes generating clicks and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. They cover wrestling and generating wrestling conversation is a good thing.

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

Going into the PSU Okie St match last year Flo had 7 Penn State wrestlers ranked ahead of Okie State wrestlers, but still had Okie State ranked ahead of the Lions. So while I was exaggerating a bit, based on recent history my intentional exaggeration is within the realm of possibilities. I do not care what Willie or CP claim to the contrary, everything they do is done with an agenda that includes generating clicks and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. They cover wrestling and generating wrestling conversation is a good thing.

Flo had Penn State ranked first going into that dual
https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6031484-2016-2017-ncaa-florankings/15767-a-few-team-changes

 

[Sportfan2017]

The reality is that Ohio State had a great tournament at Cliff Keen....they deserve the current #1 ranking. There is plenty of time for PSU to earn it back. I think anyone who is realistic ...they know that finishing ahead of OSU will be a lot tougher than last year. PSU scores a LOT of bonus points...we all know that. But OSU is almost assuredly positioned this year to score more bonus points than they ever have. I am certainly rooting for PSU ...as always ...but I think PSU will have to have at least 2 more National Champs ( probably 3 ) than OSU to have a realistic chance of winning in March. I sure hope it happens.

 

[nitlion6]

Flo had Penn State ranked first going into that dual
https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6031484-2016-2017-ncaa-florankings/15767-a-few-team-changes

Article from February 19th, 2017 giving an overview of the match the headline reads and article refers to #2 Penn State vs. #1 Oklahoma State.

I guess if you have a posted ranking that differs from headline and article rankings your bases are forever covered.

 

[James Toney]

Nato is definitely 125 pound champ this year. Every single time CP salivates over him he refers to him as NCAA champ Nathan Tomasello. I could have sworn he got second at 133 last year? And 3rd the year before that at 125?

I actually like NCAA champ Jason Tsirtis to win in all at 149 this year come to think of it.

 

[NittanyChris]

I stlll think we are the faves in March but we do need some things to go our way, primarily health wise.
1. Need Cenzo at 95% healthy or above. If not, we lose.
2. Keener's health. If he's not a 100% healthy and Cortez is at 33, tOSU should be favored.
3. Lee/Cortez - I am one who believes Lee can AA and therefore the shirt should and will be pulled. Lee's participation eliminates the demand for Keener to be 100% healthy.

That's my 2 cents.
PS - I really love Cassar's chances to AA as well.

 

[nitlion6]

I stlll think we are the faves in March but we do need some things to go our way, primarily health wise.
1. Need Cenzo at 95% healthy or above. If not, we lose.
2. Keener's health. If he's not a 100% healthy and Cortez is at 33, tOSU should be favored.
3. Lee/Cortez - I am one who believes Lee can AA and therefore the shirt should and will be pulled. Lee's participation eliminates the demand for Keener to be 100% healthy.

That's my 2 cents.
PS - I really love Cassar's chances to AA as well.

Just my 3 cents.
125 Ohio State has a huge advantage 18 to 25 points.
133 Ohio State again has an advantage. Pletcher could finish as high as 5th or fall in the blood round, while Keener could be a 7th or 8th or a blood rounder.
141 I think Nick's coming out party will be the Scuffle and i also believe Nick scores as well as McKenna.
149 and 157 are a net 40plus point difference going Penn State's direction.
165 assuming a health Cenzo is a significant PSU point advantage.
174 No matter I figure Bo is third and Mark is probably first, possibly second.
184 is Bo and Myles
197 Moore is the favorite, but certainly not anywhere near prohibitive like Zain, Jason or Snyder, and I think Cassar finished fairly high up the podium.
HWT Snyder is going to be first, but Nick at second should not shock anyone.

When it is all said and done, if both squads have good tournaments, PSU wins. For OSU to win PSU will need to under perform a tad and OSU will need to stick every landing.

 

[dunkej01]

From the smirnof files:

SLee and PDIII might get a lot of B&W band wagon jumpers on come march.

Knocking NaTo and MyMar to 3rd could loom large

 

[pawrestlersintn]

From the smirnof files:

SLee and PDIII might get a lot of B&W band wagon jumpers on come march.

Knocking NaTo and MyMar to 3rd could loom large

From the Maxwell House files...

I'm already sick to my stomach thinking about rooting for what's his name from Carnival Cruise Lines.

 

[slushhead]

Just my 3 cents.
125 Ohio State has a huge advantage 18 to 25 points.
133 Ohio State again has an advantage. Pletcher could finish as high as 5th or fall in the blood round, while Keener could be a 7th or 8th or a blood rounder.
141 I think Nick's coming out party will be the Scuffle and i also believe Nick scores as well as McKenna.
149 and 157 are a net 40plus point difference going Penn State's direction.
165 assuming a health Cenzo is a significant PSU point advantage.
174 No matter I figure Bo is third and Mark is probably first, possibly second.
184 is Bo and Myles
197 Moore is the favorite, but certainly not anywhere near prohibitive like Zain, Jason or Snyder, and I think Cassar finished fairly high up the podium.
HWT Snyder is going to be first, but Nick at second should not shock anyone.

When it is all said and done, if both squads have good tournaments, PSU wins. For OSU to win PSU will need to under perform a tad and OSU will need to stick every landing.

I won't quibble on details of the other weights, but are you sure you meant net 40+ point difference @ 149 & 157? I could see net 30 combined, but net 40 would suggest Hayes and Jordan are worth only 7th/8th place with a couple of bonus-point victories. Right now they are ranked in the 5/6 range, and they haven't exactly looked like they are at their ceilings. I wouldn't be surprised by only a 20-25 point combined differential if both guys have an excellent tournament (Hayes 3rd/4th, Jordan 4th, plus several bonus victories between them).

 

[NittanyChris]

From the smirnof files:

SLee and PDIII might get a lot of B&W band wagon jumpers on come march.

Knocking NaTo and MyMar to 3rd could loom large

Could definitely see SLee dropping NATO a peg.
However, MyMar looks much improved and I'd be very skeptical about putting PD3 ahead of him.

 

[nitlion6]

I won't quibble on details of the other weights, but are you sure you meant net 40+ point difference @ 149 & 157? I could see net 30 combined, but net 40 would suggest Hayes and Jordan are worth only 7th/8th place with a couple of bonus-point victories. Right now they are ranked in the 5/6 range, and they haven't exactly looked like they are at their ceilings. I wouldn't be surprised by only a 20-25 point combined differential if both guys have an excellent tournament (Hayes 3rd/4th, Jordan 4th, plus several bonus victories between them).

If one finishes 5th and the other 7th, 8th or blood round the difference is right around 40.

 

[ZepGraffiti]

Hall currently ranked 2nd by most services means about zip to me.
But if he & ZV both get to NCAAs undefeated & the Seeding Committee gives Zahid the #1 seed, then it's a problem IMO.

174 seems like a 3-horse race. Hall shouldn't have to go thru both [even tho he can] if he's a 0-loss, returning champ, and wrestled the full schedule. Otherwise, champs should never participate in the All-Star exhibition ever again, no matter how fun.

Just a little preemptive bitching on my part. Seeds could be crucial assuming psu/osu are still 'toss-up' come March.

 

[RoarLions1]

If one finishes 5th and the other 7th, 8th or blood round the difference is right around 40.

Not sure I understand either, nit. Your "if" looks like worst case for tOSU, and even at that, the math doesn't hold up.

Two firsts (40) vs a 5th and 8th, say (15.5), is only a 24.5 difference. Even with Bonus, can't get to 40. And I think slushie's finishes (noted above) for the tOSU guys are likely to be a closer guess to their actual finish. Hope for 20, delighted with 25.

 

[RoarLions1]

Hall currently ranked 2nd by most services means about zip to me.
But if he & ZV both get to NCAAs undefeated & the Seeding Committee gives Zahid the #1 seed, then it's a problem IMO.

174 seems like a 3-horse race. Hall shouldn't have to go thru both [even tho he can] if he's a 0-loss, returning champ, and wrestled the full schedule. Otherwise, champs should never participate in the All-Star exhibition ever again, no matter how fun.

Just a little preemptive bitching on my part. Seeds could be crucial assuming psu/osu are still 'toss-up' come March.

Agree completely, though it did happen...and humans are involved, so who knows. Like you, I know it's early, seeding may be determined by the Mark Hall vs Bo Jordan bout, when compared to ZV vs Bo. Transitive property at it's best and worst.

 

[a_mshaffer]

geez... what are we going to talk about in March?

 

[slushhead]

geez... what are we going to talk about in March?

Iowa.

 

[nitlion6]

Not sure I understand either, nit. Your "if" looks like worst case for tOSU, and even at that, the math doesn't hold up.

Two firsts (40) vs a 5th and 8th, say (15.5), is only a 24.5 difference. Even with Bonus, can't get to 40. And I think slushie's finishes (noted above) for the tOSU guys are likely to be a closer guess to their actual finish. Hope for 20, delighted with 25.

You and I already know Jason and Zain, assuming good health, are combining for something much closer to 55 than 40

I do not believe placing Jordan 5th and assuming a freshman 141 pounder competing at 149 as a "7/8/blood rounder" is very far-fetched.

 

[jschrantz]

geez... what are we going to talk about in March?

Yes, I would encourage the fans to sit back and enjoy the journey.

 

[nitlion6]

geez... what are we going to talk about in March?

By very early March we will be discussing the number of scorers necessary to win a title, and I guarantee we will have more than a couple of us lamenting the team's inability to overcome all of the obstacles placed in their path to another title.

By the end of March we will be discussing how unbelievable the kids on the team truly are.

I imagine by March 31 we will talk about all the amazing recruits coming into the program and we will return to having fun at the expense of HR.

 

[RoarLions1]

You and I already know Jason and Zain, assuming good health, are combining for something much closer to 55 than 40

I do not believe placing Jordan 5th and assuming a freshman 141 pounder competing at 149 as a "7/8/blood rounder" is very far-fetched.

1st 20 Points, not counting Bonus Zain & Jason 40 Points total
5th 10 Points, not counting Bonus Micah 10 Points
R12 2 Points, not counting Bonus Ke-Shawn 2 Points

Best case for us, and I believe tOSU has upside here, though we can go with it. 28 Point difference (my previous post had 24.5, as it assumed an 8th Place finish for Ke-Shawn).
Add 15 Bonus for Zain/Nolf, and 7 or so for Hayes/Jordan, and it's 36 Points, but uses every pro-PSU, anti-tOSU scoring possibility.

40 is in the realm of possibility...yes. Looking at the range of possibilities, and assuming good health for all, it's the extreme high end. 20 or so, to me is the extreme low end. I'd call 30 a reasonable number, with anything between 20 and 40 as possible.

 

[jschrantz]

Sounds like we are starved for the real season to start in January

 

[PSU Mike]

Just gotta beat Tosu kids in any F2F opportunities b/w 133 & 184. Can’t imagine winning at the two higher weights, but if Cassar could muster a F2B, who knows.

 

[FineMaterial]

Some facts would be really useful in this discussion. Injury facts in particular. Is Cenzo a little dinged up or is his leg being held on by a thread? With the PSU staff it's impossible to tell.

 

[tomsc]

geez... what are we going to talk about in March?

How the point totals are expected to turn out for the 2019 NCAA's.

 

[diggerpup]

Someone needs to explain to be how NaTo can continue to hold a #1 ranking this deep into December when:

1. He’s injured.
2. He hasn’t wrestled.
3. He’s changing weights from 2016.
4. He has a leg injury, so how is he maintaining conditioning ?
5. He has a leg injury, so how’s he even making this cut ?
6. Suriano’s only true loss was 3-2 to the wrestler who pinned NaTo in 2016 NCAA semis.


From my vantage point, it looks like a big plate of Fuzzy Math with a side order of Fake News.

 

[jammenz]

You may remember when Jimmy Gulibon was the pre-season #1 after moving up a weight class, AKA Dean who? And this surprises you?

 

[minnhawkeye]

I have always felt a defending champion should be ranked #1 at the start of a new season. They won it last and no matter where or rank they came from they beat who was on the mat.
All star matches don't count they say so Hall should be ranked #1.
Nato has never won a title and why should be ranked #1? Cruz won it last year he is the champ till someone beats him way I look at it.

 

[pish69]

I have always felt a defending champion should be ranked #1 at the start of a new season. They won it last and no matter where or rank they came from they beat who was on the mat.
All star matches don't count they say so Hall should be ranked #1.
Nato has never won a title and why should be ranked #1? Cruz won it last year he is the champ till someone beats him way I look at it.

NATO won as a freshman. If I’m not mistaken he’s finished 1,3,3. No problem giving him number one ranking. Much better body of work than Cruz or Suriano

 

[dicemen99]

Not sure I understand either, nit. Your "if" looks like worst case for tOSU, and even at that, the math doesn't hold up.

Two firsts (40) vs a 5th and 8th, say (15.5), is only a 24.5 difference. Even with Bonus, can't get to 40. And I think slushie's finishes (noted above) for the tOSU guys are likely to be a closer guess to their actual finish. Hope for 20, delighted with 25.

I have to agree with nitlion, I don't think that 5th and 7th for M. Jordan and Hayes is worst case at all. I think it is pretty fair and objective.

Hayes is ranked high, but it would not surprise me one bit if he took 5th, took 8th, or got knocked out in the R12 or R16 with a bad bracket. Mid AA seems ok for Jordan but he is also a bit undersized - or rather under muscled at this point, his frame seems fine for a 157, but seeing him in person he is not at all large for the weight. I don't see him even remotely in the ballpark with Nolf or Kemerer and I think there are guys at that weight who will give him trouble with their size.