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Playoff Projection

So I think 8-10 are basically locked in now...

9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame/Georgia (maybe us but unlikely)

If SMU beats Clemson then Bama is in

If Clemson beats SMU then things get interesting. I think Bama is still in.

The #1 seed definitely has the worst draw
 
According to Manuel, non CCG teams CANNOT move ahead of CCG participants. Period.
Makes sense so we are no worse than 6th.

If we beat Oregon and Texas loses our prize for being the top seed is a game vs OSU if they beat Tennessee. If we beat Oregon and Texas wins then we get Georgia if they beat Indiana.
 
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The CFP rankings largely do their own thing and are not beholden to the polls. If anything we typically see the AP and Coaches correspond the following week's poll to what the CFP rankings are.

More specific to this point, the CFP ranking have consistently had Miami-FL higher ranked than the AP/coaches. They seem to rate the Canes higher than the general consensus - so it wouldn't surprise me if Miami-FL is still "in" based on their slot tonight and ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams. I think it could go either way.
There is more evidence of Miami's ineptitude than their place in the CFP. They got a lot of rope because they are Miami, but they are a dumpster fire with zero resume. The CFP committee cannot leave the door open to have 3 ACC teams in the playoff.

Heavy disagree. Not only are the CCGs valid in their own right - actually winning a conference championship where there are prescribed qualification rules and teams largely play the other teams in the season - compared to the mythical "national championship" but having some level of potential chaos going into the CCGs is absolutely part of the fun of college football. It would be boring if there weren't some key stuff still up for grabs.
I guess we won't see eye to eye on this, but there would be nothing worse than to have 3 of your auto-bid teams with byes being ranked outside of the top 12 teams. Even worse, if those teams include 18 and 22
 
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Love this discussion...many valid points and generally respectful with no juvenile name calling. Refreshing!

I've thought about this before, but after reading all of these well reasoned posts (and the chaos I see surfacing from the expanded playoffs) leads me to two conclusions:

1) As meaningful as they are in many ways, we have to get rid of the CCG's. They disadvantage the teams in the championship games (no week off, potential of losing). I know eliminating them leads to some problems with the current mega conferences with not every team playing head to head. But CCG's are dead IMO or should be.

2) The golden domers need to join a conference. They don't deserve any special treatment, they aren't any more special than any of the other top teams. They typically play a decent schedule, but they need to join the grind of tough conference schedule. Why do they get special consideration? If they don't join a major conference they should be marginalized. They have a super rich tradition, but so do many other schools that ditched independent status.
IMHO, The bigger question for ND, is how long they can play a decent schedule? The B2G is a grind. How many B2G teams will be willing to schedule ND as an OOC moving forward? Not much benefit if you're trying to make the playoffs.
They've been filling their schedule with the ACC which likely continues to get weaker overall.
 
Just to be clear, since I think there's some misinformation here regarding the committee

Even more concerning for the ACC was Manuel's answer on whether a 11-1 SMU team, currently ranked No. 9, could drop below Alabama with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game.

"Potentially yes," Manuel said.
 
Just to be clear, since I think there's some misinformation here regarding the committee

Even more concerning for the ACC was Manuel's answer on whether a 11-1 SMU team, currently ranked No. 9, could drop below Alabama with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game.

"Potentially yes," Manuel said.
Potentially? If you have Bama over S Carolina. And S Carolina just beat Clemson on the road, and then SMU goes and loses to Clemson at a neutral site. SMU certainly would drop below Bama. Regardless of if it’s close or not.
 
It means Notre Dame CANNOT pass Penn State REGARDLESS of the outcome on Saturday night. This doesn't lock up the 5 seed however, because if Georgia beats Texas, and PSU loses to Oregon, Texas stays in front of Penn State for the 5 seed.

If you don't want Alabama, root for Texas and/or SMU. I don't WANT Alabama, BUT I believe we can certainly beat them in State College at night, or in the day for that matter. I would RATHER play Arizona State or Clemson.
That's not what he said. He said that non-CCG participants cannot move in relationship to other non-CCG participants. CCG participants can and will move based on performance during their games. So if we get blown out vs Oregon we absolutely can drop thus improving the overall ranking of teams like ND.
 
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That's not what he said. He said that non-CCG participants cannot move in relationship to other non-CCG participants. CCG participants can and will move based on performance during their games. So if we get blown out vs Oregon we absolutely can drop thus improving the overall ranking of teams like ND.
Thank you
 
they are going to have to do some fixing. I am glad we have a 12 team playoff. But if this scenario is correct, PSU may well be better off to start our second team players and take this weekend off. The B1G loser will play ASU then Boise. The B1G winner gets a week off and then plays Tenn or tOSU. We may see both Oregon and PSU try to lose this game. I am only partially kidding. Let's say, one team is winning 17-3 at halftime, do they pull their key players for the second half?

Gd6g4u7WUAAX9td
 
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they are going to have to do some fixing. I am glad we have a 12 team playoff. But if this scenario is correct, PSU may well be better off to start our second team players and take this weekend off. The B1G loser will play ASU then Boise. The B1G winner gets a week off and then plays Tenn or tOSU. We may see both Oregon and PSU try to lose this game. I am only partially kidding. Let's say, one team is winning 17-3 at halftime, do they pull their key players for the second half?

Gd6g4u7WUAAX9td
No one is gonna bench their starters down 14 at the half in the Big Ten Championship.
 
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Heavy disagree. Not only are the CCGs valid in their own right…
What makes a CCG more valid than just naming Oregon the champ as was done for decades prior to NU?

This expanded CFP has made CCGs an unnecessary opportunity for injuries to occur to limited teams forced to play an additional game compared to other playoff participants.
 
they are going to have to do some fixing. I am glad we have a 12 team playoff. But if this scenario is correct, PSU may well be better off to start our second team players and take this weekend off. The B1G loser will play ASU then Boise. The B1G winner gets a week off and then plays Tenn or tOSU. We may see both Oregon and PSU try to lose this game. I am only partially kidding. Let's say, one team is winning 17-3 at halftime, do they pull their key players for the second half?

Gd6g4u7WUAAX9td
So no one is going to "try to lose this game" but some of us have been explaining for months that the 5 seed is likely the best seed.
 
they are going to have to do some fixing. I am glad we have a 12 team playoff. But if this scenario is correct, PSU may well be better off to start our second team players and take this weekend off. The B1G loser will play ASU then Boise. The B1G winner gets a week off and then plays Tenn or tOSU. We may see both Oregon and PSU try to lose this game. I am only partially kidding. Let's say, one team is winning 17-3 at halftime, do they pull their key players for the second half?

Gd6g4u7WUAAX9td
You know Boise only loss was a fg at Oregon as time ran out and they were up a td with 9 minutes left or so. Best is to win the conference and get the bye. It’s one less game to play and having to play Tenn or OSU after they beat each other up is okay and my opinion better then playing extra game
 
What makes a CCG more valid than just naming Oregon the champ as was done for decades prior to NU?

This expanded CFP has made CCGs an unnecessary opportunity for injuries to occur to limited teams forced to play an additional game compared to other playoff participants.
This
Oregon, SMU, Arizona State and Texas won their conferences based on the regular season results--skip the CCGs
 
You know Boise only loss was a fg at Oregon as time ran out and they were up a td with 9 minutes left or so. Best is to win the conference and get the bye. It’s one less game to play and having to play Tenn or OSU after they beat each other up is okay and my opinion better then playing extra game
It's not--our odds of beating SMU and ASU are likely better than beating just Ohio State on a neutral field. Maybe Tennessee pulls an upset but I find that unlikely even after the Michigan debacle.
 
No one is gonna bench their starters down 14 at the half in the Big Ten Championship.
What is worth more, land grant trophy or big ten championship trophy? Answer, they are equal. Both are worthless in the era of the Natty playoff.

Asked another way, would you rather win the B1G or get deeper into the playoff?
 
What is worth more, land grant trophy or big ten championship trophy? Answer, they are equal. Both are worthless in the era of the Natty playoff.

Asked another way, would you rather win the B1G or get deeper into the playoff?
This is the smartest thing you've ever said...proud moment for me.
 
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You know Boise only loss was a fg at Oregon as time ran out and they were up a td with 9 minutes left or so. Best is to win the conference and get the bye. It’s one less game to play and having to play Tenn or OSU after they beat each other up is okay and my opinion better then playing extra game
Boise is a good team. They are all good teams. But I’d rather play Boise than TN or GA.
 
I'd much rather stay the 5 seed than move up to #1 or #2.

If they're going to keep this format, they need to allow the higher seeds the option to "defer" and drop down to a lower seed.

A home game v. ASU followed by a 2nd rounder vs. Boise St. >>>>>>>>> a bye and a 2nd round matchup v. OSU or Georgia.
 
they are going to have to do some fixing. I am glad we have a 12 team playoff. But if this scenario is correct, PSU may well be better off to start our second team players and take this weekend off. The B1G loser will play ASU then Boise. The B1G winner gets a week off and then plays Tenn or tOSU. We may see both Oregon and PSU try to lose this game. I am only partially kidding. Let's say, one team is winning 17-3 at halftime, do they pull their key players for the second half?

Gd6g4u7WUAAX9td
If we win and Texas wins then we most likely have Georgia in the 2 vs 7 matchup if they get by Indiana at home. And if we lose and Texas loses then probably Alabama in the 6 vs 11 game.

There is not going to be an easy game but I would rather take my chances with ASU or Iowa State then Boise versus a bye then either OSU or Georgia in all likelihood. The other thing to look at is that quarterfinal game is a neutral site bowl game. No home field advantage. A Georgia or OSU travels well so we could be outnumbered by them.
 
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If we win and Texas wins then we most likely have Georgia in the 2 vs 7 matchup if they get by Indiana at home. And if we lose and Texas loses then probably Alabama in the 6 vs 11 game.

There is not going to be an easy game but I would rather take my chances with ASU or Iowa State then Boise versus a bye then either OSU or Georgia in all likelihood. The other thing to look at is that quarterfinal game is a neutral site bowl game. No home field advantage. A Georgia or OSU travels well so we could be outnumbered by them.
Yep...the difference is, if we win, we get a bye before our next game. If we lose, we have to play a lower-ranked team and have an extra game before getting to the Natty with no bye week.
 
This
Oregon, SMU, Arizona State and Texas won their conferences based on the regular season results--skip the CCGs

With the next expansion coming, I think the ccgs end up being a thing of the past soon and in the event of a tie, some tiebreaker will be used. In most cases, the tiebreaker should be for the auto bid. We can have co Champs if needed for the record books.
 
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