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Playoff Projection

ryoder1 said:
I am arguing they won't jump us. It is crazy to think the NIU loss does not hurt ND. We will see tonight but it is paranoia to think ND gets this preferential treatment. The committee likes us. We have the biggest win vs their biggest win and we have a much better loss plus strength of schedule is far better. What, because they win by 14 points at USC giving up 35? That is the argument? The game was pretty close. I guess it could happen but I don't see it likely.
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My curiosity is what happens with A&M. They are no longer ranked in either of the polls. If the Committee wants to justify Notre Dame over PSU either tonight or post-CCG (if we lose) they pretty much have to have A&M (or Army or Louisville I guess) ranked at a minimum to at least say that ND has a win against a ranked team. Even that isn't enough but it would tip the hand of the CFP Committee if they are even considering having ND leap in the rankings after the CCGs.

If PSU has a win versus a ranked team and ND doesn't and PSU has a loss/losses to only top 10 teams and Notre Dame has a much worse loss and Notre Dame has a much weaker schedule than PSU and Notre Dame played fewer Power 4 teams (8 such teams vs 10 for PSU), it would be pretty mind boggling to have Notre Dame ranked higher than PSU.

Also, worth noting that PSU's SOS is going to be even higher after playing Oregon (win or lose).
 
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doctornick said:
My curiosity is what happens with A&M. They are no longer ranked in either of the polls. If the Committee wants to justify Notre Dame over PSU either tonight or post-CCG (if we lose) they pretty much have to have A&M (or Army or Louisville I guess) ranked at a minimum to at least say that ND has a win against a ranked team. Even that isn't enough but it would tip the hand of the CFP Committee if they are even considering having ND leap in the rankings after the CCGs.

If PSU has a win versus a ranked team and ND doesn't and PSU has a loss/losses to only top 10 teams and Notre Dame has a much worse loss and Notre Dame has a much weaker schedule than PSU and Notre Dame played fewer Power 4 teams (8 such teams vs 10 for PSU), it would be pretty mind boggling to have Notre Dame ranked higher than PSU.

Also, worth noting that PSU's SOS is going to be even higher after playing Oregon (win or lose).
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I agree and have been advocating the same rationale. You cannot justify ND jumping PSU. The only way would have been a very poor PSU performance vs Maryland maybe winning by only 10-14 and a total beatdown of USC by ND. Neither happened.
 
doctornick said:
Sure, but the Committee has rankings to put out tonight, so they can't just count on SMU losing. If they want to "hedge their bets" to avoid the choice among the 3 loss SEC teams, they easiest way is to keep Miami-FL above all of them tonight.
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It will also be interesting to see where they put SMU relative to duhO$U - SMU was 9th in last CFP Rankings and Miami and duhO$U lost in front of them... if the Committee moves SMU up to 7th entering the ACC CCG, it almost certainly means that SMU is in - essentially, moving them in front of all 2-loss eligible CCG participants not making their CCG would be telling (i.e., CCG result will only determine whether they get a 1st RD bye or not - not their participation in CFP). If the Committee moves SMU to 7 (or even 8), it's very doubtful they "penalize" a CCG loss (i.e., solidly in before the CCG - including a potential 1st RD bye and then out of the playoffs with a CCG loss despite the fact that they're are several teams with 2-losses in Regular Season that failed to even qualify for their Conference's Championship Game).
 
Some of the most interesting things to look at for tonight's rankings...

1. Where is SMU ranked? The higher they are (especially if above Tennessee or tOSU), the harder it would be to justify leaving them out if they lose

2. Where is Miami-FL ranked? If they are higher than the 3 loss SEC teams than it is almost certain that the ACC will get 2 teams in (either SMU and Miami-FL if SMU wins or SMU and Clemson if Clemson wins)

3. Which of the 3 loss SEC teams is ranked highest? Since none of them are playing, it would be difficult to justify their order changing after next weekend. If USCe has a chance, it has to be now with the committee saying their win over Clemson puts them above Bama/Ole Miss.

4. Is Tennessee higher than Ohio St? If so, it likely means an 8 seed and home game for the Volunteers

5. Does Indiana move at all? Specifically, could they be higher than Ohio St? I think they will ranked #9 and basically slotted into being the visitors in the 7/10 game but perhaps their huge win might change their standing.

6. Does Arizona St jump the SEC teams? If so, they could potentially end up as the #11 seed - as opposed to #12 - with a win. Or maybe even end up with a bye.

7. Is A&M ranked (or Louisville or Army neither of which seems likely)? If the Committee has any intention of having Notre Dame leap PSU then they pretty much have to leave a ND opponent ranked to help to justify it. It also would help with arguing for Texas staying above PSU with the same record.
 
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doctornick said:
My curiosity is what happens with A&M. They are no longer ranked in either of the polls. If the Committee wants to justify Notre Dame over PSU either tonight or post-CCG (if we lose) they pretty much have to have A&M (or Army or Louisville I guess) ranked at a minimum to at least say that ND has a win against a ranked team. Even that isn't enough but it would tip the hand of the CFP Committee if they are even considering having ND leap in the rankings after the CCGs.

If PSU has a win versus a ranked team and ND doesn't and PSU has a loss/losses to only top 10 teams and Notre Dame has a much worse loss and Notre Dame has a much weaker schedule than PSU and Notre Dame played fewer Power 4 teams (8 such teams vs 10 for PSU), it would be pretty mind boggling to have Notre Dame ranked higher than PSU.

Also, worth noting that PSU's SOS is going to be even higher after playing Oregon (win or lose).
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We’ll be #3
 
fastlax16 said:
Which is why its easier to just keep Miami ahead of all 3.
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As much I hate the SEC, I'd rather have any of those 3 in over Miami.
Miami hasn't played a ranked team and they've lost 2 of their last 3 to GT and Syracuse. They also have TD or less wins against:
-Louisville (8-4, 5-3) 5th in ACC
-Cal (6-6, 2-6) 14th in ACC
-VT (6-6, 4-4) 8th in ACC

2 losses in the ACC this year is a dealbreaker. ACC champ should be only team in the CFP
 
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heckmans said:
As much I hate the SEC, I'd rather have any of those 3 in over Miami.
Miami hasn't played a ranked team and they've lost 2 of their last 3 to GT and Syracuse. They also have TD or less wins against:
-Louisville (8-4, 5-3) 5th in ACC
-Cal (6-6, 2-6) 14th in ACC
-VT (6-6, 4-4) 8th in ACC

2 losses in the ACC this year is a dealbreaker. ACC champ should be only team in the CFP
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What if Clemson wins? Are you going to leave SMU out who ran the table in the ACC?
 
doctornick said:
Some of the most interesting things to look at for tonight's rankings...

1. Where is SMU ranked? The higher they are (especially if above Tennessee or tOSU), the harder it would be to justify leaving them out if they lose

2. Where is Miami-FL ranked? If they are higher than the 3 loss SEC teams than it is almost certain that the ACC will get 2 teams in (either SMU and Miami-FL if SMU wins or SMU and Clemson if Clemson wins)

3. Which of the 3 loss SEC teams is ranked highest? Since none of them are playing, it would be difficult to justify their order changing after next weekend. If USCe has a chance, it has to be now with the committee saying their win over Clemson puts them above Bama/Ole Miss.

4. Is Tennessee higher than Ohio St? If so, it likely means an 8 seed and home game for the Volunteers

5. Does Indiana move at all? Specifically, could they be higher than Ohio St? I think they will ranked #9 and basically slotted into being the visitors in the 7/10 game but perhaps their huge win might change their standing.

6. Does Arizona St jump the SEC teams? If so, they could potentially end up as the #11 seed - as opposed to #12 - with a win. Or maybe even end up with a bye.

7. Is A&M ranked (or Louisville or Army neither of which seems likely)? If the Committee has any intention of having Notre Dame leap PSU then they pretty much have to leave a ND opponent ranked to help to justify it. It also would help with arguing for Texas staying above PSU with the same record.
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1. This is the one. AP/Coaches have them at 7/8. IF SMU wins, it's easy. If Clemson wins, it's a problem. They shouldn't, but ACC probably gets 2 in that case and bumps an SEC team, simply b/c they won't be able to justify dropping SMU.
2. AP and coaches both have Miami at 14. I'd expect the CFP committee to also have them OUT with no chance to get it.

6. B12 champion - If #12 AZSt (10-2) beats #16 Iowa St (10-2), they'll be 11-2, and will have wins against #24, #19, #16. If IA St wins, they'd be 11-2 and have wins over #24 and #12.

If Boise loses, it gets interesting. Their only current loss is to Oregon(#1) by 3. They have a win against UNLV (#22) and the CCG will be a rematch. Imagine this scenario:
If #10 Boise loses the CCG (MWC champ would be #22)
If #18 Clemson wins the CCG
That means Clemson gets a bye as #18 and UNLV gets a bye at #22.
Does Boise drop below #10 and lose a spot in the playoff from Clemson/UNLV champ getting an auto-bid

In Summary:
SMU is in regardless
If SMU loses, ACC gets 2
If Boise also loses the CCG and Clemson wins the CCG, this thing is a farce in its first year
 
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KCLion said:
What if Clemson wins? Are you going to leave SMU out who ran the table in the ACC?
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SMU has to be in regardless so they get 2 if clemson wins. FWIW, I said "should" only get one, not would only get one. The potential mayhem of upsets in the CCG in the ACC/MWC/B12 is further fuel on the need to cancel the the CCGs
 
heckmans said:
2. AP and coaches both have Miami at 14. I'd expect the CFP committee to also have them OUT with no chance to get it.
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The CFP rankings largely do their own thing and are not beholden to the polls. If anything we typically see the AP and Coaches correspond the following week's poll to what the CFP rankings are.

More specific to this point, the CFP ranking have consistently had Miami-FL higher ranked than the AP/coaches. They seem to rate the Canes higher than the general consensus - so it wouldn't surprise me if Miami-FL is still "in" based on their slot tonight and ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams. I think it could go either way.
 
heckmans said:
SMU has to be in regardless so they get 2 if clemson wins. FWIW, I said "should" only get one, not would only get one. The potential mayhem of upsets in the CCG in the ACC/MWC/B12 is further fuel on the need to cancel the the CCGs
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Heavy disagree. Not only are the CCGs valid in their own right - actually winning a conference championship where there are prescribed qualification rules and teams largely play the other teams in the season - compared to the mythical "national championship" but having some level of potential chaos going into the CCGs is absolutely part of the fun of college football. It would be boring if there weren't some key stuff still up for grabs.
 
KCLion said:
What if Clemson wins? Are you going to leave SMU out who ran the table in the ACC?
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I would--they didn't play Clemson or Miami to run the table in the ACC. They avoid Ga Tech and Syracuse as well. Louisville was their only decent ACC win. Second best was...Duke???
 
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doctornick said:
Sure, but the Committee has rankings to put out tonight, so they can't just count on SMU losing. If they want to "hedge their bets" to avoid the choice among the 3 loss SEC teams, the easiest way is to keep Miami-FL above all of them tonight.
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I love the language in this post. It's exactly the kind of thing I would expect from a committee rather than a computer algorithm.

"If they want ...." implies human bias. That kind of thing is simply unfair.
 
My predictions for the brackets after 7pm:

12-Arizona st vs 5 Notre Dame
11-Alabama vs 6 Penn State
10 Indiana vs 7 Georgia
9 Ohio State vs 8 Tennessee

1 Oregon
2 Texas
3 SMU
4 Boise State

Yep. ND will jump us.
 
Delcolion915 said:
My predictions for the brackets after 7pm:

12-Arizona st vs 5 Notre Dame
11-Alabama vs 6 Penn State
10 Indiana vs 7 Georgia
9 Ohio State vs 8 Tennessee

1 Oregon
2 Texas
3 SMU
4 Boise State

Yep. ND will jump us.
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On what basis will Notre Dame jump us? They were in a battle with USC. We pounded Maryland. Texas A&M is now out of top 25. Illinois will move up in rankings. I don’t mind debating guys but at least have a valid point.
 
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Glad I was wrong. But now listen to Manuel saying that the outcomes of conference games DO matter.
 
They never said they didn't matter
SMU has to beat Clemson or they're out and Bama is in. That's why he's saying that. We all knew that
 
Delcolion915 said:
According to Manuel, non CCG teams CANNOT move ahead of CCG participants. Period.
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So that wouldn't protect UGa or SMU as they are already behind teams not playing in CCGs??? Trying to understand precisely what this means - does it mean that SMU is protected from all teams currently behind them except for Clumpson???
 
Delcolion915 said:
Lol Ohio State gifted the home game vs Tennessee
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"Gifted" though? Ohio State has wins over PSU and Indiana and a "good loss" vs Oregon and a "bad loss" versus Michigan

Tennessee has a win over Bama and a "good loss" vs Georgia and a "bad loss" versus Arkansas.

Ohio State's resume is actually better so unless you have a heavy weight on "losing more recently", it actually makes sense for Ohio State to have the edge.
 
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Love this discussion...many valid points and generally respectful with no juvenile name calling. Refreshing!

I've thought about this before, but after reading all of these well reasoned posts (and the chaos I see surfacing from the expanded playoffs) leads me to two conclusions:

1) As meaningful as they are in many ways, we have to get rid of the CCG's. They disadvantage the teams in the championship games (no week off, potential of losing). I know eliminating them leads to some problems with the current mega conferences with not every team playing head to head. But CCG's are dead IMO or should be.

2) The golden domers need to join a conference. They don't deserve any special treatment, they aren't any more special than any of the other top teams. They typically play a decent schedule, but they need to join the grind of tough conference schedule. Why do they get special consideration? If they don't join a major conference they should be marginalized. They have a super rich tradition, but so do many other schools that ditched independent status.
 
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CJFisJoePaII said:
So that wouldn't protect UGa or SMU as they are already behind teams not playing in CCGs??? Trying to understand precisely what this means - does it mean that SMU is protected from all teams currently behind them except for Clumpson???
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It means Notre Dame CANNOT pass Penn State REGARDLESS of the outcome on Saturday night. This doesn't lock up the 5 seed however, because if Georgia beats Texas, and PSU loses to Oregon, Texas stays in front of Penn State for the 5 seed.

If you don't want Alabama, root for Texas and/or SMU. I don't WANT Alabama, BUT I believe we can certainly beat them in State College at night, or in the day for that matter. I would RATHER play Arizona State or Clemson.
 
doctornick said:
Some of the most interesting things to look at for tonight's rankings...

1. Where is SMU ranked? The higher they are (especially if above Tennessee or tOSU), the harder it would be to justify leaving them out if they lose

2. Where is Miami-FL ranked? If they are higher than the 3 loss SEC teams than it is almost certain that the ACC will get 2 teams in (either SMU and Miami-FL if SMU wins or SMU and Clemson if Clemson wins)

3. Which of the 3 loss SEC teams is ranked highest? Since none of them are playing, it would be difficult to justify their order changing after next weekend. If USCe has a chance, it has to be now with the committee saying their win over Clemson puts them above Bama/Ole Miss.

4. Is Tennessee higher than Ohio St? If so, it likely means an 8 seed and home game for the Volunteers

5. Does Indiana move at all? Specifically, could they be higher than Ohio St? I think they will ranked #9 and basically slotted into being the visitors in the 7/10 game but perhaps their huge win might change their standing.

6. Does Arizona St jump the SEC teams? If so, they could potentially end up as the #11 seed - as opposed to #12 - with a win. Or maybe even end up with a bye.

7. Is A&M ranked (or Louisville or Army neither of which seems likely)? If the Committee has any intention of having Notre Dame leap PSU then they pretty much have to leave a ND opponent ranked to help to justify it. It also would help with arguing for Texas staying above PSU with the same record.
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So to answer my questions...

1. So didn't really move up much (just Miami-FL falling below them) but still 2 spots ahead of Bama. Will be interesting to see what happens if they lose.

2. Miami-FL took a tumble to #12 below Bama so they are out

3. It's Bama, no particular surprise. Putting Miami-FL right after them even widens the gap with their 2 loss SEC peers.

4. Ohio St then Tenn. So it looks very likely that the Buckeyes will host the Volunteers

5. Indiana didn't move, so they look like they are locked into the #10 seed. The only difference could be if SMU loses but doesn't drop at all and Indiana ends up #11

6. The Big 12 teams stayed lower, so the Big 12 champ is going to be the #12 seed unless Clemson or UNLV win. If Clemson wins, Boise St will be #3 if they win, but it will be interesting whether it is Clemson at #4 or ASU/ISU there - could go either way since Clemson would have a more impressive CCG win.

7. A&M isn't ranked... but Army snuck back in. Everyone root for Tulane this weekend to make sure ND doesn't have a ranked win. Of note, Texas doesn't have a win over a currently ranked team at all (unlike PSU).
 
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mhlarch said:
1) As meaningful as they are in many ways, we have to get rid of the CCG's. They disadvantage the teams in the championship games (no week off, potential of losing). I know eliminating them leads to some problems with the current mega conferences with not every team playing head to head. But CCG's are dead IMO or should be.
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Why is it a disadvantage? The loser if they make the playoff still has a week off before the first round game. And it's a chance for a meaningful title.

And, more importantly, the CCG is revenue for the conferences directly. And the TV networks love those games. They aren't going to give that up.
 
doctornick said:
Why is it a disadvantage? The loser if they make the playoff still has a week off before the first round game. And it's a chance for a meaningful title.

And, more importantly, the CCG is revenue for the conferences directly. And the TV networks love those games. They aren't going to give that up.
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Playing an extra game while others are resting us always a disadvantage. There's no need to the CCGs. Playoff should be set today with us hosting ASU and, if we win playing Boise. Instead we're playing a game where the winner gets the worse draw of Ohio State/Tennessee.
 
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doctornick said:
Why is it a disadvantage? The loser if they make the playoff still has a week off before the first round game. And it's a chance for a meaningful title.

And, more importantly, the CCG is revenue for the conferences directly. And the TV networks love those games. They aren't going to give that up.
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Good and valid points. But why not put every team on the same standing? A week off after a grueling season. Does an extra game for the best teams benefit them before entering a tough playoff? I like the CCG's but I want a level playing field for all playoff teams. I don't care if the TV networks love them and make a ton of money off them. What is fair for ALL playoff teams? I agree it won't happen in the near term because of the money involved.
 
mhlarch said:
Good and valid points. But why not put every team on the same standing? A week off after a grueling season. Does an extra game for the best teams benefit them before entering a tough playoff? I like the CCG's but I want a level playing field for all playoff teams. I don't care if the TV networks love them and make a ton of money off them. What is fair for ALL playoff teams? I agree it won't happen in the near term because of the money involved.
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To me, it's not the rest that is that important - you still get a week off in the worse case of losing and there's an argument that having 2 weeks off starts to cause rustiness.

I think the bigger argument against the CCG is playing a competitive game can lead to injuries before the playoffs. And I'll admit I have no answer for that.

But I love the CCGs so I don't want them going away. Personally, I tend to be more interested in them than the playoff games.
 
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