Flo 285 Preseason Rankings ...
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Interesting. Nevills ranked #9 and Haines can't crack the starting line-up at tOSU. We'll see how the season shakes out, but maybe Cael does know what he's talking about.
Might be a bit early to say Haines isn't cracking the lineup, I'll bet he gives Tavanello a run for his money.
In case you hadn't noticed, Flo ranked Hammond #12 at 165. Does this mean Rasheed "can't crack the starting lineup"? Or maybe CP is going with last year's starter until he gets evidence of a lineup change.
In this case, word is Haines' shoulder injury is still an issue. Last year Flo reported he won the job before the injury. So it's fair to think he could win the job this year if fully recovered.
Would it mean Cael doesn't know what he's talking about if Nevills' broken foot lingered?
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This is borderline blasphemy, but if Nevills goes down injured for large portions of the year, and there isn't a serviceable backup, I think it's fair to say that Cael made a mistake in his recruiting plan somewhere along the line
Unless mystery freshman Sael Canderson comes out of the tunnel to wrestle heavyweight. Then I'd be ok with it.
I agree that you can't predict them. I don't agree that being unable to predict them means not having a viable contingency plan in place, especially since that backup is backing up two weights. To have nobody else to run out there means something went wrong in the planning.
This is a slight, slight, slight criticism in the recruiting over the past 3ish years, which has been NAILS from 125-197
I guess we just disagree. Cassar was the contingency plan, and he got hurt.
Looking back to three years ago. There wasn't a need since we had three guys at heavy for the past three years. You would have to bring in someone during their sophomore year (recruiting cycle before Nevills). It's a hard sell to get another top heavy to commit here with Nevills. Coon, Black and Bradley would be the top three guys. Getting Coon would likely eliminate Nevills and the depth issue comes back into play. The other two would need to redshirt and then possibly sit. Bradley could've been the only one that worked due to the mission, but you can always switch teams so that's no guarantee either. And there's always the trump card: maybe they just don't want to come to PSU.
So what, you grab a walk-on, is that going to make a difference at the tournament? I understand the concern but in the grand scheme if Nevills got hurt, Cael not bringing another body in probably won't make a huge difference with the line-ups of various teams this year. I think AC's emergence gave some breathing room for focusing elsewhere.
Cael is a master recruiter and I think he's doing fine, but all factors considered I'll take this slight "issue" when you have the potential. I see where you're coming from though.
Agreed, wouldn't be a top heavy in that plan, and therefore likely no difference at tournament. Very well might in a dual, though, and I want to win all of those too. If we're judging from a "perfect recruiting" baseline, I don't think forfeiting/having a 184 guy jump up to heavy qualifies. In that scenario, there's another room guy who can grit out decisions/only getting majored.
We're on the same page on the rest though! But this is the internet so we probably still need to pretend we want to fistfight somewhere?
We're on the same page on the rest though! But this is the internet so we probably still need to pretend we want to fistfight somewhere?
Let's look back more than 3 years, because Cael has been hunting the Great Whale for a long time, and things could've been VERY different in a lot of directions. Expanding slightly to include 197 recruits, since they are potential backup heavies.
2010: PSU recruited Spencer Myers -- then the #1 215 in the country, from Selinsgrove -- but he went to Maryland instead. Gingrich and Ruggear walked on.
2011: PSU was the runner-up for Gwiazdowski -- then the #1 215 nationally. PSU was also a finalist for Andrew Campolattano. Collin Campbell arrived but lasted less than 1 full year due to off-the-mat issues.
2012: 3x PA champ John Rizzo opted to play football at Temple. Jimmy Lawson (#3 HWT in 2010) transferred in.
2013: Thomas Haines verballed as a JR. Kyle Snyder committed to Ohio State as a JR. Coon picked Michigan (I don't know if Cael was after him, but Nick Saban was). Brooks Black visited PSU, picked Illinois; word was the coaches were not impressed. Ryan Solomon (197/285) visited PSU, worked out frequently at the NLWC, picked Pitt. Aaron Bradley was very interested in PSU but picked Iowa (and had visited Cal Poly after states). PA runner-up Brandon Smith chose to play football. 2011 PA champ Garth Lakitsky transferred in for a few weeks before leaving school.
2014: PSU landed Nevills; Haines switched to Ohio State. I don't know if PSU pursued Michael Boykin (197), who committed to NC State very late.
2015: National #1 heavy Michael Johnson visited PSU, instead chose Yale football. Jordan Wood committed to Lehigh as a JR. Andrew Dunn picked VT, and Bo Spiller picked Bloomsburg. Tanner Hall (Class of 2011) returned from Mormon mission, committed to Arizona State. Hunter Ritter (197) visited PSU but picked Wisconsin after Kellan Stout committed. 2x PA champ Jan Johnson (197) and PA placer Ryan Monk opted to play football.
This is surely a partial list, as I'm not sure of all the possible heavies the coaches may have been after.
Anyway, point being: coaches have been after starting and backup heavies for a long time, and the road could've forked and twisted in a lot of different directions.
I recognize what you're saying and I always appreciate your insight on this forum. I was just making an observation of where things stand now, thus my comment about "we'll see how the season shakes out."
I love being able to close out a match with a HWT win and to be able to know you have a guy you can count on to close out with a W when the match is on the line is a good feeling. Having said this, when it comes to tournament time, there just doesn't seem to be the bonus point production from the heavies that we see in the other weights. I haven't done any ststistical analysis on this, but from watching the NCAA and BIGs, that's my overall impression. That's why I'd rather take a high school stud/bonus point guy in a lower weight than one at the HWT spot...I guess I'm just not as excited about the point potential at nationals from the heavies and would rather see us go after bonus point potential in the lower weights. Then again, maybe my view is skewed by the hugfests I observed from some of the big guys the past couple of years not named Gwiz.
Having said this, I am excited to have Nevills on the team and am looking forwrd to what he can do on the mat. It's been a while since we've had an offensive-minded big guy.
Your impression would be incorrect. At 2015 NCAA's, 285 had more bonus points than 125, 174, and 184, and was only half a point less than 149, and 1 point below 197.
Placement points, for our 4-year run, were about 57% of our total points, advancement points were about 24%, and bonus points were about 19%...and that's with 2 bonus-point guys that we might not ever see again. Imo, bonus points are huge, as it's like having an extra All-American when you can get 15 points or more, but to win Nationals, you better get the Placement's.
I was going to say "3 bonus-point guys that we might not ever see again" but decided to look up the brackets first.
As much of a big-move guy as Quentin Wright was: he had 1 pin each year at nationals, plus 2 majors in his JR year, for a total of 10 bonus points in 4 years.
That says a lot about how hard it is to amass bonus points at nationals.
