When the investigation ends and the university issue a written statement, I think it is fair to say that regardless of Meyer's fate, 75% of that statement is going to be about how OSU has zero tolerance for domestic abuse, is committed to supporting victims, etc.... So how can they take that position and still say they will allow Urban to remain as HC, the most visible position within the university? Will they put him on some sort of probation? Vow to educate him? IMHO it is simply not going to be plausible for OSU to reach any decision other than to terminate him.
For those who say, "if he reported it, he is safe", I honestly don't think it is going to make any difference if he reported it. All that means is Gene Smith also loses his job, as will anyone above Smith who was aware of the 2015 allegation. Don't lose sight of the fact that Urban hires and fires his assistants. Could the university have forced him to terminate Smith? Sure. But certainly they did not come to Urban and say "we forbid you from firing Zack Smith over this incident". So he may well have reported it, and perhaps the "investigators" came back to him and said "this is he said/she said" so we are not going to terminate him based on his actions, but if you feel he is toxic you can certainly do what you think is best for your program". So my point is, at some point this comes back to Urban to defend why he kept Smith on staff even though he knew of 2009 and 2015. All of the text messages to Urban's wife, and her responses... that's just piling on additional layers of insulation for the University to rely on when they terminate Urban.
Lastly, as we saw over the weekend, even though Herman may not have been the source for the initial story, there are also rumors out there that another former assistant at OSU, Tim Beck, may have been a source. Beck was a assistant for Meyer at OSU for a few years and is now OC at Texas. Anyone who has an ax to grind with Meyer is going to come out of the woodwork to provide details that may undermine any denials Urban may make.
So, IMHO, the only way Urban can keep his job is if he truly did not know of anything other than '09 and '15, was kept completely in the dark by Gene Smith as to any 2015 investigation, never heard anything from his wife relative to the texts, never had an assistant tell him Smith was toxic... and OSU is willing to suffer the embarrassment of admitting they were aware of two incidents of alleged domestic abuse, were willing to keep the alleged abuser and are now willing to keep the people who made the decision to keep the alleged abuser.