Freshmen Lightweight and Heavyweight Success

[RoarLions1]

Posted this on HR, in a thread that started out as a Lee vs Steveson discussion. At times it delved into conversation about the historical successes by freshmen, more at the lighter weights than the upper weights. Didn't bring it here to have a conversation about someone else's recruits, though I think both these guys will have great careers...it was more for a general discussion about the overall question and reasons for lightweight success over upperweight success.

From 2010 through 2017 (8 years, all I have right now), data clearly shows a higher frequency of Freshmen success at the lowest weights, as compared to the highest weights.

-- At 125, there have been 15 freshmen AA's in those 8 years
-- At 285, there have been 5 freshmen AA's in those years, all 5 in the years 2011 and 2012 (Myers, Nelson, McMullen, Telford, and Gwiz)
-- Combining the lowest 3 weights, there have been 33 freshmen AA's in those 8 years
-- Combining the highest 3 weights, there have been 12 freshmen AA's in those 8 years
-- 197 has the lowest number of freshmen AA's, at 3, followed by 184 (4), and 285 (5)
-- Following 125, at 15, 141 and 157 both have 11 freshmen AA's, followed by 174 (10)
-- Conversely, 285 has the highest number of SR AA's, at 30 in those 8 years
-- 125 and 141 have the lowest number of SR AA's, at 17 in those 8 years
-- 184 and 285 are the only weight classes without a freshman National Champ in these 8 years
-- 125 and 174 have had 2 freshmen National Champs in these 8 years

Neither Lee nor Steveson are your average, run-of-the-mill recruits. Both should have extraordinary college careers. All the data shows is the historical challenges, for whatever the reason, experienced at the upper weights in college wrestling.

 

[Brian LB-U]

Interesting stuff, Roar. Are you including redshirt freshmen here or have you narrowed it to just the true freshmen?

 

[Dogwelder]

... All the data shows is the historical challenges, for whatever the reason, experienced at the upper weights in college wrestling.

Good stuff!

Minor quibble: it's hard to understand what "historical challenges" means. Does it mean challenge for any one random upper-weight wrestler? Does it mean challenge for the freshman class as a whole?

It would be more understandable to say that the data shows the relative historical rarity at the upper weights. The data does not say why there is a rarity. The rarity might be due to lower percentage of freshman in the upper weight classes than in the lower weight classes (i.e., a question of quantity). And/or, the rarity might be due to something involving not so much quantity as quality. We can't tell from the data.

 

[RoarLions1]

Interesting stuff, Roar. Are you including redshirt freshmen here or have you narrowed it to just the true freshmen?

True freshmen and RS freshmen are both included as FRESHMEN, same with true and RS sophomores are considered SOPHOMORES, etc.

 

[RoarLions1]

Good stuff!

Minor quibble: it's hard to understand what "historical challenges" means. Does it mean challenge for any one random upper-weight wrestler? Does it mean challenge for the freshman class as a whole?

It would be more understandable to say that the data shows the relative historical rarity at the upper weights. The data does not say why there is a rarity. The rarity might be due to lower percentage of freshman in the upper weight classes than in the lower weight classes (i.e., a question of quantity). And/or, the rarity might be due to something involving not so much quantity as quality. We can't tell from the data.

The comment was intended to encourage discussion on the reasons why.

 

[dunkej01]

meyers told me at a football camp he was doing that his freshman year he was pretty relaxed and didnt feel any pressure because nobody expected it.

as the years passed the pressure increased and wrestling wasnt as f** as it once was.

His run that year and Fickers antics will never be forgotten by this guy.

 

[Callthestall]

I would think it's very similar to what you see in college football. Very few lineman have immediate impact their freshman year because the need to get stronger and more refined for the college game. Yet numerous skilled position players can transition from high school to college without much difficulties.
2 of the strongest upper weight wrestlers I ever saw come out of District 11,Christian Luciano and Jon Trenge would manhandle their opponents in high school. When they wrestled against each other neither one could generate much offense.
It wasn't until Trenge Junior year at Lehigh that he became more refined.
His last match was in NCAA finals against Sanderson when Cael won his 4th title.

 

[horraybeer]

I would think it's very similar to what you see in college football. Very few lineman have immediate impact their freshman year because the need to get stronger and more refined for the college game. Yet numerous skilled position players can transition from high school to college without much difficulties.
2 of the strongest upper weight wrestlers I ever saw come out of District 11,Christian Luciano and Jon Trenge would manhandle their opponents in high school. When they wrestled against each other neither one could generate much offense.
It wasn't until Trenge Junior year at Lehigh that he became more refined.
His last match was in NCAA finals against Sanderson when Cael won his 4th title.

Trenge was only a Sophomore when he wrestled Sanderson in the NCAA finals.

 

[Callthestall]

My bad. I was thinking he won his 2nd state title in 1998 not 1999. I forgot he deferred a year that's how I had him 4 years removed from high school. Sorry, should have looked it up.
I commented about Luciano from Northampton. I was at one match when Trenge and Luciano went head to head. Christian tried to hit a cement job on Jon. I don't know how Trenge didn't get his neck broken. He was as strong as an ox.

 

[RoarLions1]

More interesting data...

-- Recent data shows only 2 weight classes where freshmen outnumber seniors at the NCAA Tournament, 125 and 133, though statistically speaking the numbers are nearly the same, so I'll call it a wash.
-- At 197 and 285, the overall data shows far more seniors (about 34% of the NQ's at these two weights), vs freshmen (about 11% of all NQ's).

I mention this, as it's one reason there are far more AA's at the lower weights than the upper weights. Simply put, there are more freshmen getting to the big dance at the lower weights.

Then the question becomes...how come more freshmen 125's and 133's are making it to the tournament. We have to back up one step. Are there more freshmen starters at the lower weights? That info is not as easy to get.

One factor I've considered, unrelated to the numbers above, is that college muscle for upper weights is more a success factor than at lower weights. The football analogy above sort of makes sense to me.

More to come...

 

[Just another PSU Fan]

career 125lb'rs are RARE ... those kids tend to grow

 

[tikk10]

Then the question becomes...how come more freshmen 125's and 133's are making it to the tournament. We have to back up one step. Are there more freshmen starters at the lower weights? That info is not as easy to get

I think this is partly the case. @KidNittany keeps a spreadsheet of every D1 starters, sorted by weight and by team, and further assigning each wrestler's year (that data point color coded even). Using his spreadsheet and looking at last year's starters (I'm assuming this years' is inherently less reliable at this early point in the season) below is the distribution by class year. The top set of figures is the actual numbers, the below set is the same represented as percentages.

 

[86PSUPaul]

Interesting that at 125 there are actually more true freshman than rs freshman.