Hypothetical Penn State - Oklahoma State match-up...?

[Tom McAndrew]

When is the last time PSU scored only 1 bonus point in a dual? I don't know the answer but I'm betting it hasn't been any time soon.

My next guess was the loss to Iowa at the BJC in the 2014-15 season, and that, I believe, is the correct answer.

Crap, now that I think about it, I answered a different question -- when was the last time PSU had no bonus points in a dual? I'll have to dig further to answer the question that NoVa posed.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

When is the last time PSU scored only 1 bonus point in a dual? I don't know the answer but I'm betting it hasn't been any time soon.

I think I've got the answer this time.

Jan. 30, 2015

PSU defeated Michigan, @ Michigan, 19-15. Conaway, Gulibon, Moss, Z. Beitz, and McIntosh had decisions, to account for 15 of PSU's points. Matt Brown had a major decision, over Jake Salazar, which gave PSU 4 points. As such, as best as I can tell, this is the last time that PSU scored only 1 bonus point in a dual.

 

[NittanyChris]

There is absolutely no way that 125 is a tossup at this point. Could Pic win? Sure, Suriano is not unbeatable. However, A tossup implies that it's a 50-50 match and given their pedigrees and what they done so far, Suriano is a significant favorite.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

125 PSU Dec. 3-0
133 OSU Dec 3-3
141 OSU Dec 3-6
149 PSU Dec 6-6
157 PSU MDec 10-6
165 OSU Dec 10-9
174 OSU MDec 10-13
184 PSU Dec 13-13
197 OSU Dec 13-16
285 PSU Dec 16-16

Would give PSU the win on first TD criteria...

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Would give PSU the win on first TD criteria...

Your really think it would go to 7th criteria? I'm thinking it gets decided in our favor at total match points.

 

[johnstownsteel]

I think I've got the answer this time.

Jan. 30, 2015

PSU defeated Michigan, @ Michigan, 19-15. Conaway, Gulibon, Moss, Z. Beitz, and McIntosh had decisions, to account for 15 of PSU's points. Mat Brown had a major decision, over Jake Salazar, which gave PSU 4 points. As such, as best as I can tell, this is the last time that PSU scored only 1 bonus point in a dual.

Well done Tom.

 

[KidNittany]

LOVE the debate of whether a match is a Tossup or Not! It's semantics, which is a hobby of mine anyway. However annoying it is to linguaphobes, Semantics is a vital component of Debate.

I simplify it like this: setting these dual matchup odds centers around whether Wrestler A can be said to be favored and, if so, by how much. I like to leave room for plenty of debate around whether a favored wrestler could still lose (of course he could; it's wrestling after all!), so I keep the meaning of Tossup very strictly defined: a Tossup is only left for situations where even suggesting that one wrestler be favored feels unfit.

So here's mine:
125 Suriano favored over Picc, DEC 3-0. I'll listen to you argue that Picc might be able to beat him, but I can't hear you call it a Tossup.

133 Brock favored over Cortez, DEC (but I wouldn't beef with you if you set it at MD); 3-3.

141 Heil favored over Gulibon, DEC. I can buy any argument against Gulibon at this point, and I'm keeping my promise not to ever sleep on (get it?) Dean Heil again, but come on. Heil's bonus rate in his non-redshirting seasons is 36% on 27 wins and 27% on 32 wins. Dude wins, not disputed--but he doesn't bonus guys as tough as Gulibon. Now, could Gulibon lay down & get decked like he did at Keystone? Sure, but how can you call yourself reasonable if you set this as Bonus? 3-6 OKST

149 zPain favored over Collica, MD. Collica hasn't been bonused since Realbuto mauled him 17 nil in 2015 STL and his only other Bonus L that season was when Dylan Alton decked him at the Scuffle. Last year, the worst of his 9 L's was 6-1 to Sorenson, while the other 8 were all <=3pts. So I get that he's gotten tough and is really hard to score on. But put that next to the run zPain's been on since Sorenson 'held' him to a 4pt shutout in the B1G Final? I dunno, I guess I'd listen to it being set at only a DEC, but I'm setting it, quite reasonably, as zPain favored by Bonus. 7-6 PSU.

157 Nolf favored over JoJo, MD. Same reasoning here. Yes, JoJo held him to a DEC once, but he also couldn't stop an 11-3 major in MSG. I'd listen to setting as a DEC, but I'm not gonna. 11-6 PSU

165 Vincenzo vs Chandler Rogers, Tossup. I think this one's pretty hard to argue against being a tossup, isn't it? With these two resumes, including Eye Tests in non-folkstyle results, since Cenzo has so few D1 results yet? I'd listen to a case made for either to win, but not to be favored. But to give a team score, we have to pick, so let's give a DEC to Rogers to see how close it can get. 11-9 PSU

174 Crutchmer over Morelli DEC. I'd listen to Crutchmer being set as strongly favored. Half of Morelli's last 6 L's have been by Bonus after all, but I haven't see enough of Healthy Crutchmer yet this year to set it as such. 11-12 OKST

184 Nickal over Boyd, DEC. Nickal's too good and consistent and Boyd too inconsistent to set this any other way, right? I mean, could Nickal get too cray and lose? Sure, but setting odds, how can you not say he's favored? 14-12 PSU.

197 McCutcheon vs Weigel, Tossup. Two R12 finishers here, one with multiple W's over AAs (Mouse: Dudley 3x, Zavatsky 2x, Ophir Bernstein, Sammy Brooks, Miklus), one with 1 W over an AA (Weigel: Pat Downey). New weight for Mouse and Weigel held Pfarr to a DEC already this year, so for the sake of more team-race-closeness, I'll give it to Weigel. 14-15 OkSt.

285 Nevills over A. Schaffer, Tossup. I'm more inclined to set Nevills as the favorite, based merely on his being a natural HWT and Schaffer bumping up from 197, but I just spent 10mins looking at their records, and Nevills' big Ws at the time, got weaker & weaker as Riley Shaw & Denzel Dejournette never earned AA. While Schaffer's W over 2x AA Kroells already this year looks good on paper. By the time these two meet, it'll be easier to set Nevills as the fave, as 5 dudes ahead of him in current rankings are still on his schedule (Snyder, Medberry, Stolle, Kroells & Black). For now, we'll call it a Tossup and give the W to Nevills.

Which, in a very favorable to OkSt setup, leaves PSU with a tight 17-15 dual win.

Switching over from Odds-setting to personal Picks, I'd go with Cenzo & McCutcheon to get Ws and for zPain, Nolf & Nickal to out-bonus whatever Brock and/or Crutchmer could come up with, so that the final score looks more like 23-9 than 17-15.

As has been the case many times during this Cael-led run, bad things would have to happen at too many weights for PSU, for OkSt to have a chance to win, heading into the final bout.

This analysis tugs at my heartstrings, bravo

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

Your really think it would go to 7th criteria? I'm thinking it gets decided in our favor at total match points.

Must've been moved down, that used to be higher up.

 

[RoarLions1]

Your really think it would go to 7th criteria? I'm thinking it gets decided in our favor at total match points.

Must've been moved down, that used to be higher up.

For dual meets, since ties were eliminated after 2010-2011, total match points has been a higher criteria.

 

[jtothemfp]

This analysis tugs at my heartstrings, bravo

Haha, is yours a mind that tends to get stuck over-considering Meaning, too, Kid?

 

[jtothemfp]

Agree 1000%. That said, it's on Oklahoma State's competition schedule this year, and was not last year. With it, they have 16 competition dates (max allowed) in 2016-17, so it's feasible the starters will be there.

Tikk & I asked OkieSpladle about this, and he said he thinks we'll see Full Poke in Reno:

 

[NoVa Lion]

Crap, now that I think about it, I answered a different question -- when was the last time PSU had no bonus points in a dual? I'll have to dig further to answer the question that NoVa posed.

Actually, I was fine with your answer as my point wasn't the exactly one bonus point but that few bonus points in a dual. In any case we don't have many duals in recent history where we only scored one bonus (or zero) point(s).

 

[RoarLions1]

Thanks for taking the next step, jto & tikk!!

 

[CowboyUp61]

Mikey T been telling you all along full team to Reno, don't you trust him?

JTO, the Cornell dual is in Stillwater. And of course I have to miss it, kids are both in tournaments that Friday/Saturday Was looking forward to Dean/Boyd, Heil/Koll, and Smith/Palacio-assuming both wrestle.

 

[pish69]

Tikk & I asked OkieSpladle about this, and he said he thinks we'll see Full Poke in Reno:

NICE!!!

Most excited to see Suriano vs Picc and Bo vs Boyd

 

[Ja1339]

Does anyone care to provide an update to this based on the OSU results from the Scuffle? Perhaps we'll have a better feel after our matches this weekend.

 

[jack66]

Does anyone care to provide an update to this based on the OSU results from the Scuffle? Perhaps we'll have a better feel after our matches this weekend.

It's odd, one month into the season we've learned more about OSU than we've learned about ourselves.

I'll take a stab at it
125 - Picc is tough but Suriano is tougher. 3-0
133 - Brock looks good, we're still uncertain about Cortez. 3-4
141 - Heil is as boring as ever, but he'll get the decision. 3-7
149 - Collica has improved, major will be tough for Zane. 6-7
157 - If they wrestled right now Smith would be in for a world of hurt.10-7
165 - Either could win big, I'll give them the 1st toss-up. 10-10
174 - Crutch will have his hands full but I'll give him a slight edge. 10-13
184 - Boyd will do well to hold it to a D. 13-13
197 - Weigel is their most overrated wrestler, we get 2nd toss-up. 16-13
285 - Schafer is off to a good start, but NN is more skilled. 19-13

 

[orange nole]

125 Suriano clear favorite, possible bonus. This is no tossup, I'll stay with a decision, PSU 3-0
133 Brock clear favorite, and bonus. He's not that much more of a favorite over Cortez than Suriano is over Picc, however. There's a big dasparity in both matches, OSU 4-3
141 Heil clear favorite. Due to his style, not sure if this will get to a major or not. I don't believe it did last year. Gonna stay with a decision, OSU 7-3
149 Retherford a clear favorite, stays at a major though TIED
157 Nolf clear favorite, I'll keep it at a major again. If they wrestled tomorrow, I think Nolf would tech or pin him. Smith has much to get back after injury, PSU 11-7
165 I'm gonna split 165 and 197 between the two teams. It looks like, according to updated rankings, each team has a guy who is a very slight favorite over the other. I'll give 165 to Penn State and 197 to OSU, PSU 14-7
174 Crutchmer slight-moderate favorite over Gino/Shakur. It should be close, but either of those two guys have shown little propensity to pull these types of matches out, PSU 14-10
184 Nickal slight-moderate favorite. Boyd is solid, should be close, but I think it'll be one of those matches that looks a lot closer than it really was, kinda like Boyd wrestled against Dean a few days ago. Nickal dec, PSU 17-10
197 Already discussed, Weigal dec, PSU
17-13
285 Nevills slight favorite. I'm still trying to figure out just how good Nevills is/can be, and pay a lot of attention to each match he wrestles. Schafer is kind of an enigma for me as well, a lot of heavy's are. I'm pretty confident Nevills wins here, maybe a 6-3 type of match with a couple TD's and RT

Final PSU 20 OSU 13

I still think NCAA's could go either way though unless Mark Hall wrestles, in which case OSU would need a lot to go right and much would have to go wrong for PSU to win. Oklahomy State has a fantastic team that's very consistent and deep. Every guy is a threat to AA. The next couple months are going to be very interesting, love a classic team race

 

[orange nole]

It's odd, one month into the season we've learned more about OSU than we've learned about ourselves.

I'll take a stab at it
125 - Picc is tough but Suriano is tougher. 3-0
133 - Brock looks good, we're still uncertain about Cortez. 3-4
141 - Heil is as boring as ever, but he'll get the decision. 3-7
149 - Collica has improved, major will be tough for Zane. 6-7
157 - If they wrestled right now Smith would be in for a world of hurt.10-7
165 - Either could win big, I'll give them the 1st toss-up. 10-10
174 - Crutch will have his hands full but I'll give him a slight edge. 10-13
184 - Boyd will do well to hold it to a D. 13-13
197 - Weigel is their most overrated wrestler, we get 2nd toss-up. 16-13
285 - Schafer is off to a good start, but NN is more skilled. 19-13

You and I were very close, and I didn't see your post before I wrote mine. Funny how we even approached 165/197 the same way

 

[BDB57]

I still think NCAA's could go either way though unless Mark Hall wrestles, in which case OSU would need a lot to go right and much would have to go wrong for PSU to win. Oklahomy State has a fantastic team that's very consistent and deep. Every guy is a threat to AA. The next couple months are going to be very interesting, love a classic team race

With that in mind (should we meet in the "National Duals"), I strongly advise that Coach Smith has a couple of his guys take a "dive" and have take the dual loss with the hope that Cael does not pull Mark Hall's RS this year!

 

[James P. Whitters III]

125- PSU dec. 3-0
133- OSU MD 3-4
141- OSU dec. 3-7
149 PSU MD 7-7
157 PSU MD 11-7
165 PSU dec. 14-7
174 OSU dec. 14-10
184 PSU dec. 17-10
197 PSU dec.20-10
285 PSU dec. 23-10

flip 197 and still comfortable at 20-13. flip 165 as well and still 17-16 PSU.