I wanted to bump this old thread because this talking point, here exhibited (of course) by Dave Jones, was so annoying to me in the offseason.
From Jones' April article:
But Barkley is, without question, good enough where he could be excused for some swagger. I just wish we could see him play with an offense that maximized his talent. And there are many qualifiers and hypotheticals impeding that reality when the 2016 begins. The Nittany Lions will run a lot of inside-zone run game and do the best they can with West Coast-style pass plays that don't overly tax the popgun arm of likely starterTrace McSorley.
The problem, of course, is twofold: First, can Moorhead and new OL coach Matt Limegrover find one tackle and guard combination they can count on to keep hats on hats while Barkley does his stuff. Second, can the tiny McSorley maintain his health while running 8-12 times a game himself? He can be effective running read-option. But can he keep from getting freight trained and hurt?
Whether McSorley can read defenses correctly, take shots at the right time without being fooled and then get the ball downfield well enough to keep safeties out of the box are all major questions. Suddenly, Christian Hackenberg's rifle will not be there to keep them honest. If defenses don't respect McSorley or Tommy Stevens, it'll mean more traffic for Barkley to negotiate.
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And here is an analytics look at Penn State's offense this year...
Penn State's offense: Part of that comes from their apparent growth this season. From 73% and 57% S&P+ performances in the first two weeks to 95% and 93% performances in the last two weeks, the Nittany Lions have shown incredible progress since the beginning of the season.
The two big things that Penn State's offense has going for it: Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley's explosiveness. If you look at their explosive plays, you'll see the same trend: their 113th in 10+ yard plays, but 18th in the number of 40+ yard plays, and 13th in 50+ yard plays.
Penn State's big plays come far more often than average on passing downs rather than standard downs. The Nittany Lions are second in the country in passing downs IsoPPP. They aren't efficient still -- with successful plays on under a third of their passing downs attempts -- but their successful plays are often very explosive on passing downs. That's how Trace McSorley's developed a gunslinger reputation.
And ESPN called McSorley the best QB in the Big Ten at throwing long passes a few weeks ago.
Who throws the best deep ball (20-plus yards in the air)?
Highest QBR: Penn State QB
Trace McSorley (97.2)
Only seven Power 5 quarterbacks have attempted more deep balls than McSorley, as he’s gone 13-of-33 for 600 yards, four TDs and two picks on passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air. It’s also important to note that his 39.4 percent completion rate may seem low, but it’s still higher than the Power 5 average of 34.4 percent. Somewhat ironically, McSorley didn’t have a reputation for a big arm. His predecessor, Christian Hackenberg, did. But Hackenberg finished the 2015 season with an 89.7 QBR on such passes and a 33.9 percent completion rate.
Of course Jones led the charge about "tiny" McSorley's "pop gun arm" and how the PSU offense would suffer without Hack's strong arm to put the fear of God in them (2016 33.6 points per game; 2015 23.2 points per game).
As usual, David Jones is dumb and wrong.