If Indiana beats OSU
- Thread starter fastlax16
- Start date
Possibly OSU
The best scenario is for PSU is for Michigan and OSU to both beat Indiana. Of course Michigan winning seems like a long shot.
I know that IU's schedule hasn't been daunting, but they've demolished almost every team that they've played. They already should be ranked ahead of PSU and, if they had Gs or Longhorns or Buckeye stickers on their helmets, they'd definitely be ranked in the top 5.
In your scenario, IMO, IU would be ranked ahead of PSU, but PSU would be ranked ahead of OSU.
I believe that IU will dismantle this Michigan team, although it would be to PSU's benefit if Michigan won. At this point, I believe that many of Michigan's draftable players probably are getting close to making a "business decision" in the words of Antonio Pierce, if they already hadn't reached that point.
If Indiana beats Ohio State, I will be astounded. Indiana is much like the pitters. Great record as a result of a putrid schedule. Indiana played 3 cupcakes in their OOC schedule and then played a bunch of Big 10 bottom feeders so far. I will be surprised if Ohio State doesn't beat them by 4 touchdowns.
IU handily beat the team that PSU is playing tomorrow, and also won at UCLA much more handily than PSU beat them at home. I have a feeling that if PSU beats Washington, it won't be by the margin that IU beat them.
My point is that IU is a tremendous football team in this particular season, and probably is better than PSU and several other teams in which they currently are ranked behind just because they're IU.
Honest and sincere question here regarding your assessment of Indiana's schedule. How do you differentiate IU and PSU this year?
I think it's fair to say that the average PSU opponent has been marginally better than the average IU opponent, but if a team is supposedly in the top 10, is there an impactful difference between playing poor teams and ~average teams?
OSU will certainly tell us more about IU than the rest of their schedule when they play in Columbus. PSU lost by a TD, but worth noting that PSU played at home and didn't score an offensive TD. They threatened on 2, but didn't execute. IDK, perhaps PSU would beat IU by two TDs, but I think it's tough to make that case confidently, based on the available information.
PSU only beat Iliinois by 14 at home in a night game, and Illinois has a primitive offense compared to IU. I find it hard to believe that this PSU team would beat any team with a pulse by 14 plus points, let alone a team that probably should be ranked no lower than #5 right now.
Last year Indiana finished 3-9 (1-8 in the conference). Their 2024 Rivals recruiting rank was #65 in the country. It makes no sense that all of a sudden they are the Kansas City Chiefs.
That's what coaching and getting the most out of players, and as it appears, higher performance than what they were recruited as. Who knows how'll they will fare the next two weeks, but they have been crushing people with playing sound and efficient football.
Probably OSU, but how the teams look over the next 4 games will influence this.
I feel like this differs from the Bama/UGA dynamic simply because OSU would have losses to undefeated teams. That Vandy loss is being propped up by voters keeping Vandy near 25.
They're basically a free agent team this season compared to last season's team.
Assuming Oregon and Indiana finish 12-0, then after the CCG, both teams should be ranked in the top 5. Ohio State would have 2 losses against undefeated teams and one win against an otherwise undefeated team (Penn State). I don't know how you could rank other than this order:
B1G CCG winner
B1G CCG loser
OSU
PSU
B1G probably would get 4 into the playoff, but PSU would have the worst seeding of the 4.
B1G CCG winner
B1G CCG loser
OSU
PSU
B1G probably would get 4 into the playoff, but PSU would have the worst seeding of the 4.
It's not a sure thing that PSU gets into the playoffs at 10-2 unless Indiana is also 10-2.
I can't imagine the BiG getting less than 3 teams so I'm rooting for Indiana to lose twice. It would also help if USC could beat ND.
If PSU loses one of their remaining 4 games, at 10-2 I believe they are on the outside looking in. At that point they have to hope for help.
If Oregon and Indiana get to the CCG with no losses, that should help PSU as they (along with Miami and BYU, presumably) would be the only undefeated regular season teams. Some thought needs to be given to potential CCG losers. SMU and Iowa State could wind up in the conversation. I'm thinking there might not be enough at-large spots left for 4 B1G teams. Your point about ND is well-taken.
Assuming SEC and B1G each get 3 in (CCG winner, loser, and 1 at-large), ACC gets 2 (SMU beats Miami, both get in), Big 12 gets 2 (Iowa State beats BYU, both get in), that's 10 teams right there. Put it this way, that PSU loss to OSU was huge.
