does everyone think DeSanto's improvement jump is much more than RBYs? I think RBY gave him more than a match last year at NCAAs - to the point of a call the one time going off the mat making the difference.
Iowa guys who have a good chance to finish below their ranking...
- Thread starter NittanyChris
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does everyone think DeSanto's improvement jump is much more than RBYs? I think RBY gave him more than a match last year at NCAAs - to the point of a call the one time going off the mat making the difference.
I just want to be clear about one thing. With the exception of Kemerer (who is really only an injury question) and possibly Cassioppi, I believe the rest of these Iowa guys WILL wrestle below their rankings. It's not a pipe dream, praying for bad results. They are overranked now and it will show in March.
The other part of the formula is we need to get our guys healthy so they are hitting on all cylinders at NCAAs. Something Cael has done quite well.
WE ARE!!'
The other part of the formula is we need to get our guys healthy so they are hitting on all cylinders at NCAAs. Something Cael has done quite well.
WE ARE!!'
DeSanto beat a returning NCAA champ (Gross). RBY's improvement might have been similar, but
(1) we don't have that kind of evidence, at least not yet; -- RBY has yet to face an NCAA qualifier this year;
(2) RBY starts from a little further back.
RBY lost that NCAAs match 7-2, so any one call did not make the difference.
DeSanto's jump is for real. Haven't seen enough RBY vs. tough competition this season to comment on him. Jan 31st will shed light on your question.
Alvarez will be a nice test on Sunday for RBY. He has beaten some guys this year including Micky Philippi. However, DeSanto is a favorite to make the finals in March. Anyone who doesn't think DeSanto is a top two guy with Gross isn't being honest.
Not that you are wrong, but DeSanto beat the NCAA champ last year and the runner up the year before that. He was already at the level of knocking off top guys.
1:12 left in match and RBY gets a take down to make it 4-3 him. They reverse the call now RBY is down and has to force a shot. Doesn't get it gets countered and thrown to his back. yes that call decided that match.
Maybe -- but only if we assume DeSanto doesn't escape to tie the match.
I"m not trying to be difficult here. It's just that 1:12 is a lot of time remaining, that lots of things can happen in that time to overcome any one call. Might be different if, say, the ref missed back points or a pin in a wider margin match.
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True. I guess my point is one call completely changed that match. And it was a night and day difference then first time they met. I agree though RBY has not been tested this year at least in public like Austin has.
Interesting topic with some interesting responses(by the way, HR does not claim Lambertt either).
I would suggest letting January play out as these next 3 duals for the Hawks are going to answer a lot of questions about the validity of their rankings.
DeSanto - RBY
Murin- Red, Pletcher and then Lee
Lugo - Sasso
Marinelli - White and Joseph
Kemerer - Laboriola, Romero, and Hall
Assad - Venz and Brooks
Warner - Moore, Schultz, and Rasheed
That is a lot of highly ranked match-ups that will not only be very, very entertaining, but will be a great indicator of what "expected" NCAA points might be for Iowa(and PSU for that matter).
Not to rub it in(well maybe a little), but I am lucky enough to be able to see all of these in person! So pumped that January is finally here.
I would suggest letting January play out as these next 3 duals for the Hawks are going to answer a lot of questions about the validity of their rankings.
DeSanto - RBY
Murin- Red, Pletcher and then Lee
Lugo - Sasso
Marinelli - White and Joseph
Kemerer - Laboriola, Romero, and Hall
Assad - Venz and Brooks
Warner - Moore, Schultz, and Rasheed
That is a lot of highly ranked match-ups that will not only be very, very entertaining, but will be a great indicator of what "expected" NCAA points might be for Iowa(and PSU for that matter).
Not to rub it in(well maybe a little), but I am lucky enough to be able to see all of these in person! So pumped that January is finally here.
So your hope as a fan is another team not being able to live up to billing as opposed to your own guys stepping up? I'm confident that is not what Cenzo meant. But hey, YOU ARE!!
the binder in question is three inches thick not 3 ring...so i here
Just an opinion, but White's reverse wrestling isn't going to threaten Marinelli and Marinelli's hand fighting will wear White out and slow him down very noticeably and drastically.
Good catch.
For Brands, one ring, two rings, no rings—that’s not an excuse to him. It’s all about the inches.
Those are your words. I didn;t see anywhere in the OP that said anything about our guys stepping up. Nice spin though.
Actually, that is not what happened. No TD was awarded and WE challenged that there should have been and it the call was NOT reversed. It was close though as it was still 3-2 with less than 20 seconds left, so RBY certainly closed the gap on DeSanto. Very much looking forward to the dual to see where he stands now.
Neither did I, hence my post.
You mean hence your straw man argument, which as everyone knows is worthless BS.
I would say that NittanyChris is pretty blatantly suggesting that Iowa will under perform because that's what Iowa has done for the last decade. Has nothing to do with our guys not exceeding expectations. Iowa just doesn't preform when it counts.
good points but the final score isn't always indicative of how the match would have unfolded if...
True I was stating opinion when I said the TD happened. Well mine and Desanto's opinion considering her returned to the mat in the down position. Go get him RBY!!!!
I didn’t see you mention USA and apple pie. Hence YOU ARE a communist Benedict Arnold?Neither did I, hence my post.
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After they collided with the scorers table. DeSanto ran to the middle and immediately took the down position. He thought he got taken down but he was 100% prepared to escape and start shooting again. I love RBY obviously but you're right, there was a lot more match to be wrestled. Now maybe if there were 5 seconds left, it's a different story.
I think Chris missed a step. It’s January and rankings will change a lot over the next two months. I believe he expressly stated they are currently over ranked. The next two weeks will be telling as the conference duals will expose any weakness.
Looking at the detail (NCAA Results), going back five years ('15-'19) to make sure the data was sufficient, here's what was discovered; both PSU's and Iowa's results are not that disimilar when comparing seeds to actual results.
For wrestlers that finished at their seed or higher (done this way because a #1 seed can't finish higher than champ), both teams (compiling 5 years totals) ended in the high 60's, percent-wise. In other words, nearly 70% of Penn State and Iowa wrestlers finished at or above their seed.
Another way looked at; % of wrestlers that finished within 2 places of their seed. PSU was 83%, Iowa 77%, again very close, suggesting over three-fourths of the guys wrestle close to seed. Of those that didn't, it's equally split between guys that wrestled more than two places higher and those that wrestled two places lower.
There is agreement that Penn State has peaked in March in the past. But what the data suggests is that Iowa hasn't done badly themselves, and this year they have more horses. The next two months plus is sure gonna be fun.
For wrestlers that finished at their seed or higher (done this way because a #1 seed can't finish higher than champ), both teams (compiling 5 years totals) ended in the high 60's, percent-wise. In other words, nearly 70% of Penn State and Iowa wrestlers finished at or above their seed.
Another way looked at; % of wrestlers that finished within 2 places of their seed. PSU was 83%, Iowa 77%, again very close, suggesting over three-fourths of the guys wrestle close to seed. Of those that didn't, it's equally split between guys that wrestled more than two places higher and those that wrestled two places lower.
There is agreement that Penn State has peaked in March in the past. But what the data suggests is that Iowa hasn't done badly themselves, and this year they have more horses. The next two months plus is sure gonna be fun.
There is one major factor that skews your stats. The last several years Penn State has had a lot better seeds than Iowa. The better the seed the less opportunity to outperform that seed (or not at all with the #1 seed). So in this case, Penn State's nearly 70% looks better than Iowa's nearly 70%. (I appreciate that you fit in an 83% in your analysis...)
I was in the lower bowl for that session. RBY gets the takedown, I see a review/pause and just start watching other matches. Wasn't concerned at all. I was directly behind RBY and Desanto. There was no way that was not a takedown. Possibly the worst call I've ever seen.
RBY had ONE leg, never had two. Was not close to a TD. See link. Go to 7:10 in the video and watch for yourself.
Thank you for the video. It does look like RBY had only one leg and very briefly, so there was not control. What is the rule?
What I also get from the video is that the table should be further from the action. And/or the whole table should be made out of foam.
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You missed my point entirely. Iowa is overranked at multiple positions now. My hope is that, combined with Hall, Cenzo and Lee winning titles and others stepping up gives us a good chance to win it all.
But thanks for your misguided response anyway.
With Kemerer I’d be more concerned about the shoulder than the knee. It’s a pretty weak weight class and I’d slot Kem as the second best guy, but health is obviously a big concern with him. I hated watching him injury default out of the consis. IIRC, the female trainer essentially sprinted on the mat and yelling “No mas!”
Agree, no TD.
What I got from the video...if you are tied up for 30 seconds, just a couple head fakes will get your opponent a stall call. WTF.
Granted the data isn't perfect, none will be. The way I dealt with the element you mention, is to include equaling your seed along with performing better, so the #1's are mostly accounted for. For example, in the five years studied, there were 10 PSU #1 seeds. 7 won, three came in second. Of the 7 PSU #2 seeds, 5 were equal or better than seed, one placed third, and one did not place. The small numbers of highly seeded PSU guys falling below their seed is about equal to Iowa's, so little to no impact on the overall review.
During the long tie up, it was interesting to see RBY very determined to not move his right arm from its protective position. He really did not want Desanto to wind up with inside control. Desanto did some half-assed movements, but RBY did zero movements. If the ref felt like he had to punish somebody, I can see why he would choose RBY to punish.
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