I just gotta agree with Dave here!
Once O'Brien got here, and started running the no-huddle, spread offense, Iowa has NOT compared to Penn State!
I'd like to think this way but...there isn't a big sample size. When O'Brien blew them out at Iowa City that was one of those games where everything went right for PSU and everything went wrong for Iowa (such as they lost two starting O-linemen in about a 10 minute streth). Last year's game at the Beav was the same way -- it was PSU's best execution of the season.
The spread, and PSU's speed, should match up well against a BBDB type defense, but if this game goes Iowa's way, PSU drives will bog down as they approach the red zone and then the speed is less of an advantage.
In that sense Franklin is right, the shock plays are actually important to winning the game because PSU is scoring from 35-50-60 yards out and not having to win a grind in the red zone.
I think Iowa's recent troubles against PSU are largely powered by the same thing as Iowa's previous successess -- it has to do with recruiting and players. The great Iowa teams always had at least one world class defensive linemen who disrupted the PSU offense, they always had one great corner, and then solid players across the rest of the D. This year they have one great corner and one great DE, though they're young.
Offensively, those great Iowa teams had a solid O-line but the difference was when they had all-B1G caliber players at running back and wideout. They have the running back now in Wadley. I don't know about receiver, but they seem to be better at wideout than they were last year.
I just don't see a blowout in part because it's time for this game to revert to the mean. It's time to have a pretty gritty hard-fought game. I could see PSU pulling away in the 4th Q to win by 2 scores. The line seems about right to me.
Turnovers would change the complexion. I really don't see PSU committing a lot of turnovers because of their experience. Iowa may need to worry about INTs given their young QB and the kind of secondary play we've see out of PSU so far this year. Their QB is going to have to be very cautious because PSU has been great at disguising coverages and dropping people into passing lanes at the last second.
If I were Iowa, I would run the ball and throw screens to Wadley till PSU demonstrates they can consistently stop it. If Iowa has to drop back to pass, the advantage shifts to the PSU D.