Just a thought regarding recruits...

[maxxedout]

Do you think/Is it possible that there is diminishing returns when recruiting 4 and 5* recruits?

If you recruit extremely talented recruits 4/5*s who stay 3 years vs 3/4*s that stay 4 years, what gives you the most complete team?

This is perhaps the experiment that PSU and MSU predicate their success upon...

Just a thought.

 

[cjrugger]

 

[GreggK]

Do you think/Is it possible that there is diminishing returns when recruiting 4 and 5* recruits?

If you recruit extremely talented recruits 4/5*s who stay 3 years vs 3/4*s that stay 4 years, what gives you the most complete team?

This is perhaps the experiment that PSU and MSU predicate their success upon...

Just a thought.

Uh, no. I really have a hard time understanding why people don't think stars matter or that having more 5 stars and 4 stars is better than a ton of 3 stars. There is nothing about the last 20 years in college football that would contradict that. Stars matter and the more you have the better. End of story.

 

[mrtailgate]

Only one way to know for sure. Give me every 5 star kid in the next class and we can conduct an experiment to test your hypothesis.

 

[Art]

Take a guess as to what the coaches of the teams in last night's game think.

 

[Lions8286]

Having a team loaded with 4 & 5 star players matters until you come up against another team loaded with 4 & 5 star players. When that happens, coaching tends to take over.

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

Stars matter, and slowly but surely, the 4 & 5 * variety are coming to Penn State. That said, Clemson's recruiting is not traditionally on par with Bama's in terms of 4-5* volume, and they were able to compete with the Tide 2 years in a row. Conversely, Meyer has a roster full of 5* talent and the buckeyes couldn't even win their conference. When coaches can match good players to the perfect system for their talents, then lines between 3-4-5 star athletes can be blurred.

 

[Ranger Dan]

Do you think/Is it possible that there is diminishing returns when recruiting 4 and 5* recruits?

If you recruit extremely talented recruits 4/5*s who stay 3 years vs 3/4*s that stay 4 years, what gives you the most complete team?

This is perhaps the experiment that PSU and MSU predicate their success upon...

Just a thought.

I don't know which football coach said it (not Joe), nor the exact quote, but he basically said that the secret to winning championships is to have a whole lot of good players and a couple of well placed great players. The idea being that too many great players can lead to drama or not caring about the team goals. Of course, great athletic ability and being a team player aren't mutually exclusive, so I guess Saban could try to pick out the great players that were also hard workers and team players. I still think you only need to have a roster full of good players and a few great ones.

 

[krichards]

I'm willing to take our chances with too many high-end recruits. As long as you keep replacing them with high-end recruits, there shouldn't be a problem. And, if you're not going to keep recruiting at a high level, both of your models break down.

 

[UncleRoyBiggins]

No offense, but I think some people around here think too much.

 

[Cpeplion]

Teams loaded with 3 * players compete for conference championships every 4-5 years.

Teams loaded with 4* and higher talent, sprinkled in with a few 3* players here and there compete for championships every year.

 

[Nitt1300]

talent matters
coaching matters
character matters

 

[bjf1991]

I tend to believe a lot of three stars have conditioning issues. From reports I read, 3 stars and low 4s and sometimes 2 stars always have excess fat. Minus a lot of big linemen, 5 stars are the elite athletes. It's near impossible to become an elite athlete with excess fat. I think that is where conditioning and strength programs play big roles. How committed are these kids to becoming better athletes? Russ Westbrook couldn't dunk in high school. He then did a lot of squats lol.

O. M. G

 

[19333lion]

Unfortunately both AL and OSU had very young teams this year and still competed at the highest level. The playing field is very uneven in terms of talent.

 

[Hugh Manatee]

I think there is something to the idea of personality, coachability, and intellect...
Could a rating guru totally swing and miss on these attributes?

 

[ga.lion]

Do you think/Is it possible that there is diminishing returns when recruiting 4 and 5* recruits?

If you recruit extremely talented recruits 4/5*s who stay 3 years vs 3/4*s that stay 4 years, what gives you the most complete team?

This is perhaps the experiment that PSU and MSU predicate their success upon...

Just a thought.

Linemen are the hardest to predict so often 3 stars outwork and develop into 5 stars. In regards to skill people give me the 5 star rbs, WRs, QB, and defensive backs and Top tens will be regular.....

 

[LionJim]

Unfortunately both AL and OSU had very young teams this year and still competed at the highest level. The playing field is very uneven in terms of talent.

Going forward PSU is going to be in the top ten talent-wise, year in and year out.

 

[bdgan]

Conversely, Meyer has a roster full of 5* talent and the buckeyes couldn't even win their conference.

I hate OSU as much as anybody but I can't believe you criticize their on field performance. Here's how they've finished in the B1G East.

2012 1st
2013 1st
2014 1st
2015 1st-T
2016 1st-T

This will make the 7th consecutive year that OSU has had the top rated recruiting class in the B1G. I don't think the correlation between recruiting rankings and W-L is a coincidence.

Interestingly PSU is the last team other than OSU to finish with the #1 class in the BiG (2010). OSU finished #2 that year. Unfortunately Bolden & Jones never worked out at QB and players like Fortt & Redd defected during Freeh agency.

 

[tboyer]

Um, no, not end of story and just not true.

5 stars disproportionately come from the south, go to terrible high schools, are poorly prepared, and even if they can get by the admissions office at a place like PSU they couldn't stay eligible. PSU can't recruit these kids; other schools (like OSU and SEC schools) can. For that reason OSU's talent mix will always be different from PSU's.

Yes, of course talent matters, you certainly want 4 star players and a few 5 stars. But you also need leadership and experience and character and fit with the program matter. Easier to measure talent -- 40 times, height, weight. Harder to measure character and work ethic.

Look at the success of Wisconsin, Iowa and -- in the old days -- Nebraska. They produce top 10 teams without top 10 recruiting because they recruit the right people for their system. Look at PSU this year -- lots and lots of 3 stars who have become very good role players, who complement the 4 stars. If stars dictated what happens on the field, PSU certainly wouldn't have had the season it just had.

By contrast, I could find you team after team, including PSU in the late 90s, that had a spectacularly star-heavy recruiting classes that never really lived up to it on the field. Look at Michigan this year -- incredible number of stars, but every time when they faced adversity, they folded. They had talent but not enough leadership.

And I do think the question does need to be asked about how long 5 star players will stay. Most programs don't recruit Jucos (except in cases of exceptional need) because you only get them for 2 years. Well that's all you get a lot of 5 stars for. Sometimes a redshirt year and one year on the field before they're gone -- pretty much the same as a one-and-done.

Uh, no. I really have a hard time understanding why people don't think stars matter or that having more 5 stars and 4 stars is better than a ton of 3 stars. There is nothing about the last 20 years in college football that would contradict that. Stars matter and the more you have the better. End of story.

 

[tboyer]

Linemen are the hardest to predict so often 3 stars outwork and develop into 5 stars. In regards to skill people give me the 5 star rbs, WRs, QB, and defensive backs and Top tens will be regular.....

I do think it's true, skill people and defensive backfield are much more "finished" at the high school level, much easier to predict success. Line and linebacker and TE take time to develop. Of course you want freakish athletes, but you also want kids with a work ethic. A 5 star without character or brains is just not going to work out most of the time.

 

[tboyer]

I think there is something to the idea of personality, coachability, and intellect...
Could a rating guru totally swing and miss on these attributes?

I'm sure they try to take character into account but the ratings gurus usually don't know them as well as the recruiting coaches know them by the time the process is done. PSU has really close relationships with a lot of these guys often long before they make their decisions. PSU is also privy to all the stuff that goes to the admissions office and the NCAA clearinghouse.

We have no idea what happens behind the scenes, but a lot of the time when a top recruit takes a school off their list, it is really the other way around. What gets reported is one half of the story -- what the kid tells the recruiting guru.

 

[cjrugger]

Welcome to another long, long offseason

 

[ChiTownLion]

Look at Michigan this year -- incredible number of stars, but every time when they faced adversity, they folded. They had talent but not enough leadership.

Good point. Someone should add up the total number of stars on every team's 85-man roster and divide by number of wins to determine winning efficiency.

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

I hate OSU as much as anybody but I can't believe you criticize their on field performance. Here's how they've finished in the B1G East.

2012 1st
2013 1st
2014 1st
2015 1st-T
2016 1st-T

This will make the 7th consecutive year that OSU has had the top rated recruiting class in the B1G. I don't think the correlation between recruiting rankings and W-L is a coincidence.

Interestingly PSU is the last team other than OSU to finish with the #1 class in the BiG (2010). OSU finished #2 that year. Unfortunately Bolden & Jones never worked out at QB and players like Fortt & Redd defected during Freeh agency.

And again the team with all of those #1 rated classes and one of the best coaches was 31 points worse than the current NC, which did not have nearly the run of consecutive great classes. And in fact tosu won their NC with a 3* QB. So while 4-5* kids make your team decidedly better and put you in the realm of true contenders, they are not the only ingredient to being a champion.

 

[SEPATOPTEN]

Unfortunately both AL and OSU had very young teams this year and still competed at the highest level. The playing field is very uneven in terms of talent.

Penn State also had a very young team lets not forget.

 

[bsnyds39]

Not having 5 star recruits hasn't really worked out for us.

 

[Fox Chapel Lion II]

You can have all the 3-stars you like and you can coach them up. I'll take as many 5-stars as I can get, and even allowing for guys who don't pan out, guys who are jerks, etc., I will kick your ass.

You might get me once in a while. But I'm going to win the conference and get to the playoffs year, after year, after year.

The biggest reason - I have a BIG margin for error. On the whole, my 5-stars are going to outperform. Even if I have some players who never reach their projections, they are probably going to be contributors and help us somewhere - because they're just such good athletes.

You on the other hand - you have NO margin for error. If some of your 3-star guys don't pan out, they're clogged up wasted scholarships. If they play to their projections, fine. My guys are better and I'm going to win 80%+ of the time. If you get a whole bunch that play lights-out, congratulations, you beat me fair and square. See you next year.

If my 5-star guys go pro after three years (not two, THREE, you gotta be 3 years out of high school), that's fabulous for me. That means they played great ball. If they played great ball, that means we won. Tons of winning. So now every great prospect in America listens to me when I call them , because we win big time. Recruiting is easy for me. I can SELECT which of these great prospects I want. If a guy is sketchy, or maybe is lazy, or an attitude case, or a moron - I just move on to another excellent guy and leave the sketchy guy to be somebody else's problem.

You always, ALWAYS seek to bring in the best possible talent that you can. Talent is what wins games most of the time. It's just playing the percentages. An average coach with great talent can win National Championships. Vince Lombardi with a roster full of average is going to be driving a cab.

 

[pkg5002]

Talking about recruiting.. Man OSU's 2017 class has like 6-7 5* guys! They only have 1 3* guy, and that guy is a kicker.. yeesh! That's just ridiculous!

I feel our 2018 class can be a monster one. We already have 1 5* in Parsons, 1 5* close to committing in Slade and I truly believe when all is said and done, Justin Fields will become a 5*. So that's 3 of them. Currently not a single recruit below 4*. Not a bad way to start of the class!

 

[gorki11]

Do you think/Is it possible that there is diminishing returns when recruiting 4 and 5* recruits?

If you recruit extremely talented recruits 4/5*s who stay 3 years vs 3/4*s that stay 4 years, what gives you the most complete team?

This is perhaps the experiment that PSU and MSU predicate their success upon...

Just a thought.

Ask BAMA and there 5 Nat. Championships under Saban.

 

[HazletonLion]

Ask BAMA and there 5 Nat. Championships under Saban.

So you need to have Bama and Buckeye standards and practices. Are you ready for that ?

 

[royboy]

After seeing what we saw this year, who doubts that PSU under Coach James Franklin is capable of competing for, and winning, a national championship?

 

[Chickenman Testa]

The best recruiter in college sports today, Cael Sanderson, disagrees.

Cael targets extremely high end kids almost exclusively, lands a good number of those he goes full bore on, and is looking at a multi-decade dynasty.

Wrestling recruiting is much smaller scale than football of course, but this model works even easier in football because football scholarships are all full scholarships.

 

[el_norte]

Not sure how this translates to football, so take it FWIW, but ever since Calipari took over at Kentucky I have gawked at every recruiting class he has brought in. I expected a similar run of national championships that Alabama has experienced in football, however, that has not happened.

So, I have taken a look back at recruiting classes since 2009 and compared teams that have one a national championship since. This sample includes the 2009 - 2016 recruiting classes for: Connecticut, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, and Villanova. Again, this is BASKETBALL, so if you don't think the comparison is relevant please don't proceed. Can't say I didn't warn you.

Here are the results:

Connecticut
5 total 5* recruits (average of .625 per class)
12 total 4* recruits (average of 1.5 per class)
10 total 3* recruits (average of 1.25 per class)
27 total recruits
Total * of recruits = 103 (3.81* average per recruit)
2 National Championships (0.4 championships per 5*)

Duke
17 total 5* recruits (average of 2.125 per class)
11 total 4* recruits (average of 1.375 per class)
3 total 3* recruits (average of .375 per class)
31 total recruits
Total * of recruits = 138 (4.45* average per recruit)
2 National Championships (0.12 championships per 5*)

Kentucky
32 total 5* recruits (average of 4 per class)
10 total 4* recruits (average of 1.25 per class)
2 total 3* recruits (average of .25 per class)
44 total recruits
Total * of recruits = 206 (4.68 * average per recruit)
1 National Championship (.03 championships per 5*)
3 additional Final Four appearances

Louisville
2 total 5* recruits (average of .25 per class)
21 total 4* recruits (average of 2.625 per class)
6 total 3* recruits (average of .75 per class)
29 total recruits
Total * of recruits = 112 (3.86* average per recruit)
1 National Championship (0.5 championships per 5*)
1 additional Final Four appearance

Villanova
3 total 5* recruits (average of .375 per class)
12 total 4* recruits (average of 1.5 per class)
7 total 4* recruits (average of .875 per class)
22 total recruits
Total * of recruits = 84 (3.82* average per recruit)
1 National Championship (0.33 championships per 5*)

Read into these arbitrary stats however you choose. But what I see is total domination in recruiting by Kentucky with half the results in terms of championships as teams like Connecticut and Duke who have half the 5* recruits. In my opinion, winning championships takes building solid classes of 4* or high 3* recruits with a handful of game changing 5* recruits that buy into the team's mission. Focusing on only recruiting the 5* athletes results in a team full of self-interested drama queens that care far more about their draft status than winning championships.

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

You can have all the 3-stars you like and you can coach them up. I'll take as many 5-stars as I can get, and even allowing for guys who don't pan out, guys who are jerks, etc., I will kick your ass.

You might get me once in a while. But I'm going to win the conference and get to the playoffs year, after year, after year.

The biggest reason - I have a BIG margin for error. On the whole, my 5-stars are going to outperform. Even if I have some players who never reach their projections, they are probably going to be contributors and help us somewhere - because they're just such good athletes.

You on the other hand - you have NO margin for error. If some of your 3-star guys don't pan out, they're clogged up wasted scholarships. If they play to their projections, fine. My guys are better and I'm going to win 80%+ of the time. If you get a whole bunch that play lights-out, congratulations, you beat me fair and square. See you next year.

If my 5-star guys go pro after three years (not two, THREE, you gotta be 3 years out of high school), that's fabulous for me. That means they played great ball. If they played great ball, that means we won. Tons of winning. So now every great prospect in America listens to me when I call them , because we win big time. Recruiting is easy for me. I can SELECT which of these great prospects I want. If a guy is sketchy, or maybe is lazy, or an attitude case, or a moron - I just move on to another excellent guy and leave the sketchy guy to be somebody else's problem.

You always, ALWAYS seek to bring in the best possible talent that you can. Talent is what wins games most of the time. It's just playing the percentages. An average coach with great talent can win National Championships. Vince Lombardi with a roster full of average is going to be driving a cab.

Good post, and for the most part, I agree. But look no further than our own school the past 2 years - we had a 4-5* QB who was far less successful than a 3* QB (albeit with a worse OL and offensive scheme). Why? Hack never matched our system. He had more raw talent, but was outclassed by TM, who's skills set was more in line with the system. The question then becomes, which is MORE important - the players or the system?

 

[Fox Chapel Lion II]

Good post, and for the most part, I agree. But look no further than our own school the past 2 years - we had a 4-5* QB who was far less successful than a 3* QB (albeit with a worse OL and offensive scheme). Why? Hack never matched our system. He had more raw talent, but was outclassed by TM, who's skills set was more in line with the system. The question then becomes, which is MORE important - the players or the system?

Very legit. You want to get the most talented guys who can do what you want them to do.

Example - Urban Meyer. He's not going to recruit a 5-star pro-style, drop back QB (Hack). Not that he would think Hack is a bad player, he just doesn't do what UM wants to do. When he targets his style of dual-threat QB's, he goes hard after the very best ones out there. Meyer is not going to take his chances finding overlooked diamonds-in-the-rough, he wants to get consensus top prospects.

I will never attack Hackenberg personally, as a player, I never thought he was very good. (without question he was the best we had and he DID have the golden arm). But no one will criticize OB for going after him, he just didn't work out the way everybody hoped. Same with our guys like Bolden, Newsome and Jones - we either had a bad eval process or it just didn't work, God knows we had other issues going on at that time, but they were outstanding prospects. Bolden was a terrible player, but Michigan and Michigan State both wanted him bad. Odds are you bring in 3 players rated so high, at least one is going to be a hell of a player. I will happily take my chances going that route.

 

[grinagrin]

Very legit. You want to get the most talented guys who can do what you want them to do.

Example - Urban Meyer. He's not going to recruit a 5-star pro-style, drop back QB (Hack). Not that he would think Hack is a bad player, he just doesn't do what UM wants to do. When he targets his style of dual-threat QB's, he goes hard after the very best ones out there. Meyer is not going to take his chances finding overlooked diamonds-in-the-rough, he wants to get consensus top prospects.

I will never attack Hackenberg personally, as a player, I never thought he was very good. (without question he was the best we had and he DID have the golden arm). But no one will criticize OB for going after him, he just didn't work out the way everybody hoped. Same with our guys like Bolden, Newsome and Jones - we either had a bad eval process or it just didn't work, God knows we had other issues going on at that time, but they were outstanding prospects. Bolden was a terrible player, but Michigan and Michigan State both wanted him bad. Odds are you bring in 3 players rated so high, at least one is going to be a hell of a player. I will happily take my chances going that route.

In defence of Hackenberg, had the coaches and the system not changed, it's safe to say that Hack would've "worked out the way everybody hoped."

 

[tboyer]

5 star HS wrestlers don't expect to get paid what football players get paid.

Auburn won a national championship quite recently with a QB who was auctioned off by his father to the highest bidder-- Auburn boosters won the auction, and their team won a championship, so I'm sure they feel the investment was worthwhile.

But it's kind of a pointless discussion.

Franklin will go after the best talent that is a fit with Penn State academically and also a fit with the kind of program he wants to run. That means there will be quite a few 4 star and 5 star players Penn State will NOT be recruiting for all sorts of reasons.

And there will be a much larger number of 4- and 5-star players who are not interested in PSU because of having to be an actual college student and go to class and stuff, and not getting a nice off-campus apartment and a nice car to drive like they do in Columbus.

Some of those players will unfortunately end up playing for PSU opponents, but you can't control what you can't control.

I don't think at this point that Franklin is going to lose recruits because of lack of effort.

But I hope people here don't lose sight of what Penn State is and what it isn't. I don't want Penn State to try to be Ohio State or some SEC school -- though I am hoping PSU will be competitive. But PSU has always been different from the typical big time football program and I hope it continues to be different.

It will be very interesting to see what the graduation rate will be for this group of players who earned a #4 national ranking as largely freshman and sophomores. I hope it will be high. I'm pretty sure it will be.

The best recruiter in college sports today, Cael Sanderson, disagrees.

Cael targets extremely high end kids almost exclusively, lands a good number of those he goes full bore on, and is looking at a multi-decade dynasty.

Wrestling recruiting is much smaller scale than football of course, but this model works even easier in football because football scholarships are all full scholarships.

 

[gorki11]

So you need to have Bama and Buckeye standards and practices. Are you ready for that ?

You don't know for sure if BAMA and OSU standadrs and practices are not legit and with in the rules. That is what many people say w/out proof just because they can't get those recruits. But at the same time I saw a documentary about how bad the corruption really is. Not saying at BAMA or OSU but across the nation.

 

[Fox Chapel Lion II]

In defence of Hackenberg, had the coaches and the system not changed, it's safe to say that Hack would've "worked out the way everybody hoped."

Very fair statement.

 

[Fox Chapel Lion II]

5 star HS wrestlers don't expect to get paid what football players get paid.

Auburn won a national championship quite recently with a QB who was auctioned off by his father to the highest bidder-- Auburn boosters won the auction, and their team won a championship, so I'm sure they feel the investment was worthwhile.

But it's kind of a pointless discussion.

Franklin will go after the best talent that is a fit with Penn State academically and also a fit with the kind of program he wants to run. That means there will be quite a few 4 star and 5 star players Penn State will NOT be recruiting for all sorts of reasons.

And there will be a much larger number of 4- and 5-star players who are not interested in PSU because of having to be an actual college student and go to class and stuff, and not getting a nice off-campus apartment and a nice car to drive like they do in Columbus.

Some of those players will unfortunately end up playing for PSU opponents, but you can't control what you can't control.

I don't think at this point that Franklin is going to lose recruits because of lack of effort.

But I hope people here don't lose sight of what Penn State is and what it isn't. I don't want Penn State to try to be Ohio State or some SEC school -- though I am hoping PSU will be competitive. But PSU has always been different from the typical big time football program and I hope it continues to be different.

It will be very interesting to see what the graduation rate will be for this group of players who earned a #4 national ranking as largely freshman and sophomores. I hope it will be high. I'm pretty sure it will be.

I don't know what they do at Ohio State or Alabama. I really don't care all that much. I know that there is a hell of a lot less funny stuff coming out of Columbus under Meyer than what they had with Sweater.

I want to win and win BIG. And I want to do it with great athletes who are great people and belong in college. If it's harder that way, so be it. That is why CJF is making the money he makes. It's not the easy way. It's not SUPPOSED to be the easy way. Get it done and don't tell me why you cant do it.

If all I want is great athletes I have the Steelers nine miles down the river from me. If all I want is eggheads playing at football, I'll root for CMU or Dartmouth. No thanks. I'm shooting for the moon and I want it all.