Very fun dual that actually helped PSU’s chances quite a bit! Cael knows the formula for winning, it is thoroughbreds and bonus points. It is looking more like PSU has these again this year. At NCAA’s PSU could have easily had three pins last night, two of ranked opponents. That is a great sign. The likelihood that PSU ends up with 5 finalists (133, 141, 165, 174, 184) went up, and here’s why:
133- RBY looked like he was going to win that match regardless. DeSanto was injured, you just can’t tell whether it was physical or mental. Time will tell. At the moment Iowa is hurting here, a strength has become a weakness. A mental injury is far worse. There is no road map for healing mental injuries. I am pulling for him because wrestling is small in life compared to what will happen after wrestling is over. He is just a kid. RBY has a huge match with Gross (and probably 2). Split with him and he could be the NCAA #1 seed. Win and win the BT tourney and he is the hands down #1.
Even with a split Gross would have 2 losses and be 1-1 with RBY. RBY would have 1 loss. Phillippi will only have 1 loss. Tucker will have 0 losses and both he and Phillippi would be conference champs. This will be a very interesting weight class to seed.
Seeding could be?: 1 - RBY, 2 - Tucker, 3 - Phillippi, 4 - Gross, 5 - DeSanto, 6 - Rivera.
141 – It is looking like Lee and Pletcher, which we will see soon. But don’t count out Woods. And Demas is always dangerous. Lee could earn the #1 here even with a split with Pletcher (if you win the second meeting). Iowa looks to be hurting here. Murin got trucked by Red and Red is second tier. He could grind to AA with a good path but probably DNP.
149 – I wish Verk would do better, but I have nothing bad to say. He is a Division 1 wrestler going against the cream of the crop with Type 1 diabetes. He is one in a million even with his results.
157 – Need Berge back. This weight is wide open below #2. Big jump for PSU possible (but also not necessary). With five finalists and a couple other placers PSU can get there without Berge.
165 – Wow, both these guys have b _ _ ls. I think Marinelli is cutting a bit, that is why his NCAA tournament performances have been subpar. Extremely low bonus rate against Top 16 guys. Favors PSU at NCAAs.
174 – Kemerer looked great, and got it done at home. Hawks are better at duals especially home duals. PSU is better at tournament prep. There is no arguing it, it is all in the data I posted before. Still looks like a coin flip and the important one will only be the last one. Actually benefits Hall to be #2 because he likely gets Kutler in an NCAA semi, who he knows very well and isn’t a big move guy.
184 – Big win for Brooks. Mr. Brooks, watching Aaron on and off the mat makes me proud to be a Penn Stater. His path to an NCAA #2 seed is WIDE OPEN with the win. Assad looks like fringe AA to DNP because this weight is very deep outside the big ten. The guy to watch is Cam Caffey. He is young, strong, and extremely athletic. He could win the big ten. And will you get good Venz or meh Venz?
197 – This loss doesn’t really matter for Shak. It mattered for the team, but he still has Moore and so is going to have limited matches with a meh record. Not going to get seeded high, but based on his past performance (Top 5 bonus rate against Top 16) if he can get back to that level of performance would be a big point gain for PSU.
285 – This loss doesn’t matter as much, his ceiling at this weight this year was #3 and though it got lowered, still a bunch of veterans at this weight from #4 to #10. Not a big blow to take a loss to unbeaten #3 who looks good.
The trend is your friend, and the trend is up.
133- RBY looked like he was going to win that match regardless. DeSanto was injured, you just can’t tell whether it was physical or mental. Time will tell. At the moment Iowa is hurting here, a strength has become a weakness. A mental injury is far worse. There is no road map for healing mental injuries. I am pulling for him because wrestling is small in life compared to what will happen after wrestling is over. He is just a kid. RBY has a huge match with Gross (and probably 2). Split with him and he could be the NCAA #1 seed. Win and win the BT tourney and he is the hands down #1.
Even with a split Gross would have 2 losses and be 1-1 with RBY. RBY would have 1 loss. Phillippi will only have 1 loss. Tucker will have 0 losses and both he and Phillippi would be conference champs. This will be a very interesting weight class to seed.
Seeding could be?: 1 - RBY, 2 - Tucker, 3 - Phillippi, 4 - Gross, 5 - DeSanto, 6 - Rivera.
141 – It is looking like Lee and Pletcher, which we will see soon. But don’t count out Woods. And Demas is always dangerous. Lee could earn the #1 here even with a split with Pletcher (if you win the second meeting). Iowa looks to be hurting here. Murin got trucked by Red and Red is second tier. He could grind to AA with a good path but probably DNP.
149 – I wish Verk would do better, but I have nothing bad to say. He is a Division 1 wrestler going against the cream of the crop with Type 1 diabetes. He is one in a million even with his results.
157 – Need Berge back. This weight is wide open below #2. Big jump for PSU possible (but also not necessary). With five finalists and a couple other placers PSU can get there without Berge.
165 – Wow, both these guys have b _ _ ls. I think Marinelli is cutting a bit, that is why his NCAA tournament performances have been subpar. Extremely low bonus rate against Top 16 guys. Favors PSU at NCAAs.
174 – Kemerer looked great, and got it done at home. Hawks are better at duals especially home duals. PSU is better at tournament prep. There is no arguing it, it is all in the data I posted before. Still looks like a coin flip and the important one will only be the last one. Actually benefits Hall to be #2 because he likely gets Kutler in an NCAA semi, who he knows very well and isn’t a big move guy.
184 – Big win for Brooks. Mr. Brooks, watching Aaron on and off the mat makes me proud to be a Penn Stater. His path to an NCAA #2 seed is WIDE OPEN with the win. Assad looks like fringe AA to DNP because this weight is very deep outside the big ten. The guy to watch is Cam Caffey. He is young, strong, and extremely athletic. He could win the big ten. And will you get good Venz or meh Venz?
197 – This loss doesn’t really matter for Shak. It mattered for the team, but he still has Moore and so is going to have limited matches with a meh record. Not going to get seeded high, but based on his past performance (Top 5 bonus rate against Top 16) if he can get back to that level of performance would be a big point gain for PSU.
285 – This loss doesn’t matter as much, his ceiling at this weight this year was #3 and though it got lowered, still a bunch of veterans at this weight from #4 to #10. Not a big blow to take a loss to unbeaten #3 who looks good.
The trend is your friend, and the trend is up.
