most likely #1 vs #2 ncaa finals

[PSUbluTX]

Seeing Roar's comment in another thread about his prediction for the most likely #1 vs #2 finals match (he had Snyder/Coon followed by Nickal/Martin) made me wonder how likely we are to see #1 vs #2 at each weight class. I'd be interested in your take on the most to least likely. Apologies if there's a thread on this already. I didn't see one.

Here's my breakdown of most likely #1/#2 finals by weight with predicted winner bolded if the match were to happen:

1st: Snyder/Coon 285
2nd: Retherford/Sorenson 149
3rd: Nickal/Martin 184
4th: Valencia/Hall 174
5th: Gross/Micic 133
6th: Meredith/Eierman 141
7th: Cruz/NaTo 125
8th: IMar/McFadden 165
9th: Hidlay/Lavallee 157
10th: Moore/Darmstadt 197

 

[matter7172]

I'd put 157 at the 10 slot.

 

[PSUbluTX]

I'd put 157 at the 10 slot.

Good catch. That's a typo. I actually have it at #9 (fixed). Only doesn't get #10 due to uncertainty about Nolf's status.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Good list, but I would maybe move 197 up to #7 and slide the others (7 thru 9) down accordingly. Oh yeah, and put 157 at #10.

 

[ksmith02]

I don't think Nolf's status would make a difference to be honest. No way Lavallee makes the finals.

 

[razpsu]

So is Suriano wrestling. What is his deal. Can he compete to beat osu.

 

[tabenn]

So is Suriano wrestling. What is his deal. Can he compete to beat osu.

Suriano is wrestling.the question is how healthy is he.

 

[PSUbluTX]

For some added perspective, I went back and looked at the past 6 years for a sample of how often #1 met #2 in the NCAA finals and who prevailed. I’m a little surprised that matchup doesn’t happen more often. Here’s what I found:

Total finals matches b/n 2012-2017: 60
#1 vs #2 Matchups: 26/60 (43.33%)
#1 Prevailed: 17/26 (65.38%)
#2 Prevailed: 9/26

Lower Seeded Finals Matchups: 34/60
Higher Seed Prevailed: 29/34 (85.29%)
Lower Seed Prevailed: 5/34

Totals
Higher Seed Prevailed: 46/60 (76.67%)
Lower Seed Prevailed: 14/60 (5 of these winners were PSU wrestlers, 3 from last year’s finals — Cenzo, Mark & Bo)

 

[RD41]

Here is my very humble opinion on the matter. Rooting to see the 1st match on the list as I am very excited to see a winner take all rubber match between Capt America & the Rocket Scientist.

1st: Snyder/Coon 285
2nd: Valencia/Hall 174
3rd: Retherford/Sorenson 149
4th: Nickal/Martin 184
5th: Gross/Micic 133
6th: Meredith/Eierman 141
7th: Moore/Darmstadt 197
8th: Cruz/NaTo 125
9th: IMar/McFadden 165
10th: Hidlay/Lavallee 157

If Nolf is healthy hard to pick anyone else on his side to make the finals. I think #1 & 2 are the only matches on the list that are going to happen. The others match ups would be more surprising that not if they were to occur. Of course, that is why they actually wrestle the tournament. Cannot wait for Thursday.

 

[PSUbluTX]

If Nolf is healthy hard to pick anyone else on his side to make the finals. I think #1 & 2 are the only matches on the list that are going to happen. The others match ups would be more surprising that not if they were to occur. Of course, that is why they actually wrestle the tournament. Cannot wait for Thursday.

Agreed. But if the above stats hold up, 4 of these matches should happen. Your top 4 seem VERY likely to me.