My Comprehensive Prediction Thread

[mvattivo]

Someone posted an awesome spreadsheet where you simply put ('D', 'M', 'T' or 'F') beside the winners name for the type of win, and it automatically fills everything in for you and tally's everything up. I knew that I was definitely showing homerism in many places, but, I didn't realize how badly until I saw the numbers at the end. Sure, I'm lenient with their placement, but, I don't think anything is Looney Tunes. However, I clearly went overboard on the bonus.....oh well. The only teams that I did bonus points for was PSU, OSU, Iowa, tOSU and Michigan. The others are just based on placement with regular decisions. Here we go:

Team Scores

1 Penn State 170
2 Ohio State 95
3 Iowa 86
4 Oklahoma State 85.5
5 Michigan 53.5
6 Cornell 52.5
7 Minnesota 43.5
8 Missouri 42
9 Nebraska 42
10 Rutgers 42

Top Individual Scores

1 (1) Jason Nolf (PSU) Penn State 28
2 (1) Bo Nickal (PSU) Penn State 26
3 (1) Myles Martin (OHST) Ohio State 25.5
4 (3) Spencer Lee (IOWA) Iowa 24
5 (2) Anthony Cassar (PSU) Penn State 22
6 (1) Mark Hall (PSU) Penn State 21
7 (3) Nick Suriano (RUT) Rutgers 20
8 (1) Yianni Diakomihalis (COR) Cornell 20
9 (2) Micah Jordan (OHST) Ohio State 20
10 (1) Anthony Ashnault (RUT) Rutgers 20
11 (1) Alex Marinelli (IOWA) Iowa 20
12 (2) Vincenzo Joseph (PSU) Penn State 19
13 (2) Joey McKenna (OHST) Ohio State 18.5
14 (1) Daton Fix (OKST) Oklahoma State 18
15 (2) Shakur Rasheed (PSU) Penn State 18
16 (2) Kollin Moore (OHST) Ohio State 18
17 (1) Derek White (OKST) Oklahoma State 17
18 (3) Nick Lee (PSU) Penn State 16.5
19 (1) Sebastian Rivera (NW) Northwestern 16
20 (2) Tyler Berger (NEB) Nebraska 16

125

1. Spencer Lee (IOWA)
2. Sebastian Rivera (NW)
3. Ronnie Bresser (ORST)
4. Nicholas Piccininni (OKST)
5. Vitali Arujau (COR)
6. Pat Glory (PRIN)
7. Jack Mueller (UVA)
8. Sean Russell (MINN)
R12 Brent Fleetwood (NDSU)
R12 Ryan Millhof (ASU)
R12 Michael McGee (ODU)
R12 Rayvon Foley (MSU)

133

1. Nick Suriano (RUT)
2. Daton Fix (OKST)
3. Mickey Phillipi (PITT)
4. Austin Desanto (IOWA)
5. Roman Bravo-Young (PSU)
6. Stevan Micic (MICH) *Obviously predicting health issues*
7. Ethan Lizak (MINN)
8. John Erneste (MIZZ)
R12 Luke Pletcher (OHST)
R12 Tariq Wilson (NCST)
R12 Montorie Bridges (WYO)
R12 Charles Tucker (COR)

141

1. Yianni Diakomihalis (COR)
2. Joey McKenna (OHST)
3. Nick Lee (PSU)
4. Jaydin Eierman (MIZZ)
5. Josh Alber (UNI)
6. Mitch McKee (MINN)
7. Tristan Moran (WISC)
8. Michael Carr (ILL)
R12 Kaid Brock (OKST)
R12 Kanen Storr (MINN)
R12 Max Murin (IOWA)
R12 Dom Demas (OU)

149

1. Anthony Ashnault (RUT)
2. Micah Jordan (OHST)
3. Matthew Kolodzik (PRIN)
4. Mitch Finesilver (DUKE)
5. Austin O'Connor (UNC)
6. Brady Berge (PSU)
7. Brock Mauller (MIZZ)
8. Joshua Heil (CAMP)
R12 Kaden Gfeller (OKST)
R12 Justin Oliver (NCST)
R12 Pat Lugo (IOWA)
R12 Jarret Degan (ISU)

157

1. Jason Nolf (PSU) *Co-Hodge*
2. Tyler Berger (NEB)
3. Hayden Hidlay (NCST)
4. Alec Pantaleo (MICH)
5. Ryan Deakin (NW)
6. Kaleb Young (IOWA)
7. Steve Bleise (MINN)
8. Ke-Shawn Hayes (OHST)
R12 Larry Early (ODU)
R12 Josh Humphreys (LEH)
R12 Taleb Rahmani (PITT)
R12 Christian Pagdilao (ASU)

165

1. Alex Marinelli (IOWA) *OW* - I'd love for Cenzo to prove me wrong AGAIN
2. Vincenzo Joseph (PSU)
3. Chance Marsteller (LH)
4. Josh Shields (ASU)
5. Evan Wick (WISC)
6. Logan Massa (MICH)
7. Isaiah White (NEB)
8. Mekhi Lewis (VT)
R12 Joseph Smith (OKST)
R12 Bryce Steiert (UNI)
R12 Andrew Fogarty (NDSU)
R12 Demetrius Romero (UVU)

174

1. Mark Hall (PSU)
2. Zahid Valencia (ASU)
3. Daniel Lewis (MIZZ)
4. Myles Amine (MICH)
5. Jordan Kutler (LEH)
6. Jacobe Smith (OKST)
7. David McFadden (VT)
8. Taylor Lujan (UNI)
R12 Mikey Labriola (NEB)
R12 Dylan Lydy (PUR)
R12 Brit Wilson (UNI)
R12 Devin Skatzka (MINN)

184

1. Myles Martin (OHST)
2. Shakur Rasheed (PSU)
3. Zachary Zavatsky (VT)
4. Maxwell Dean (COR)
5. Ryan Preisch (LEH)
6. Taylor Venz (NEB)
7. Emery Parker (ILL)
8. Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT)
R12 Samuel Colbray (ISU)
R12 Lou Deprez (BING)
R12 Nick Reenan (NCST)
R12 Drew Foster (UNI)

197

1. Bo Nickal (PSU) *Co-Hodge*
2. Kollin Moore (OHST)
3. Preston Weigel (OKST)
4. Patrick Brucki (PRIN)
5. Jacob Warner (IOWA)
6. William Miklus (ISU)
7. Benjamin Honis (COR)
8. Jay Aiello (UVA)
R12 Tom Sleigh (VT)
R12 Eric Schultz (NEB)
R12 Rocco Caywood (ARMY)
R12 Nathan Traxler (STAN)

285

1. Anthony Cassar (PSU)
2. Derek White (OKST)
3. Gable Steveson (MINN)
4. Amar Dhesi (ORST)
5. Jordan Wood (LEH)
6. Trent Hillger (WISC)
7. Thomas Haines (LH)
8. Youssif Hemida (MD)
R12 Conan Jennings (NW)
R12 Matt Stencel (CMU)
R12 Mason Parris (MICH)
R12 Demetrius Thomas (PITT)

 

[I.J.W.T.]

Can you post a link to the spreadsheet?

 

[mvattivo]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/7741wqhaop6bivj/2019ncaaChampionshipsV1.xlsx?dl=0

 

[diggerpup]

Gotta stop with this nonsense of scoring 170.

Yes, we are prohibitive favorites... but let’s not act like a bunch of cocky homers.

No one has touched 150 since Oklahoma State (153) in 2005.

 

[McScoreley]

Gotta stop with this nonsense of scoring 170.

Yes, we are prohibitive favorites... but let’s not act like a bunch of cocky homers.

No one has touched 150 since Oklahoma State (153) in 2005.

Makes it all the more crazier we got to 146.5 with Suriano out in 2017 and Cutch/Jimmy bouncing in R12. I don't think it was certain that Nick wins that year (Cruz was hot) but I think he'd at least make the finals, which puts us at 162.5 (with no bonus)

 

[mvattivo]

Gotta stop with this nonsense of scoring 170.

Yes, we are prohibitive favorites... but let’s not act like a bunch of cocky homers.

No one has touched 150 since Oklahoma State (153) in 2005.

I admitted that it was very homerish. I simply entered the data and put through what it spit out.

I don't think we will score anything close to 170. I'm guessing around 140ish.

 

[diggerpup]

Makes it all the more crazier we got to 146.5 with Suriano out in 2017 and Cutch/Jimmy bouncing in R12. I don't think it was certain that Nick wins that year (Cruz was hot) but I think he'd at least make the finals, which puts us at 164.5 (with no bonus)

Thanks. That’s kind of my point

To break Iowa’s all-time 170, we would need 1 more finalist to have a shot.

Someone from 133/149 would need to take 3rd or higher, and we don’t have a 125. Or we find a 6th champ.

150 is rarified air and I think PSU passes it.

170 is an historic record. I can’t stand Iowa at all, but that 170 is a helluva record & accomplishment. That 170 number should be respected in this sport.

 

[McScoreley]

I agree and the 146.5 came with a near perfect run from our 5 champs and Nevills getting 5th.

To get to 170, you'd need that kind of perfection from everyone basically with a roster like ours.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I agree and the 146.5 came with a near perfect run from our 5 champs and Nevills getting 5th.

To get to 170, you'd need that kind of perfection from everyone basically with a roster like ours.

With the current scoring Iowa would have scored 160.5 points that year. They would have lost the extra advancement point for winning 9 first round matches and 0.5 points for winning their first consy at 285.

 

[bigs22]

I ran my bracket and was surprised to see that I had us down for 159.5. Higher than I expected. That was the scoring with
RBY - 8
Lee - 4
Berge - DNP - R12
Nolf - 1
Cenzo - 1
Mark - 1
Shak - 2
Nickal - 1
Cassar - 3

I’m seeing through blue tinted glasses, sure, but there is room for a bit of variance both ways.

Also, one FUN and informative thing I like to do is go through the brackets for the top teams with their absolute best case and absolute worst case scenarios to see how they line up. (I try a reasonable best and worst case - no injuries figured in, only wins within a reasonable possibility, so a worst case scenario for Bo is just first with less bonus. the backside is pretty neat, seeing how you can mix and match to get favorable matchups.)

Anyways our every guys best case scenario got us 184. That would be RBY - 3, Nick - 2, Berge - 3, Shak - 2 and everyone else winning with solid bonus. (If you want to yell at me about not believing in Nick and Shak go for it)

For the top four I had
Best Prediction Worst

PSU 184 159.5 110
OSU 163 110 63
tOSU 128 103.5 75.5
Iowa. 136 86 50.5

Initial thoughts, we could wrestle a horrible tournament and still be in it potentially. Okie State has an absurd amount of variance, but Geer and Jojo’s paths make that fairly obvious, they both have the potential for some really rough draws following an early loss. Then throw in guys like Brock and Gfeller and they could really have an interesting weekend good or bad.

I’ve been doing this type of thing for a few years now (since the last year people were worried about Minnesota) and Ohio State has the least variance I have ever seen. Myles, Mckenna, Jordan, and Moore are all pretty locked in their areas and then you have the rest that either have no AA shot or practically no chance to get out of the 7th place match.

I was pretty tough on Iowa overall, but you can justify just about anyone off the podium except Spencer, Bull, and Warner. As I played with the brackets I found the Lugo-Gfeller bout to be huge, with the loser finishing at the R12 and the winner ending up dropping into Berge in the R12. So only one of those three AAing in most cases.

The 2-4 are all in striking distance and could really go either way. They have some important potential matchups. Moore-Weigel-Warner will be big. Picc-Spencer, 133, Lugo-Gfeller.

Overall it should be a really FUN tournament, especially for us.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Gotta stop with this nonsense of scoring 170.

Yes, we are prohibitive favorites... but let’s not act like a bunch of cocky homers.

No one has touched 150 since Oklahoma State (153) in 2005.

Actually, in 2017 using the same scoring system that was in place in 2015 we would have scored 154 points without he who must not be named.