Playoff Picture (with A&M losing to Auburn/Bama to OU)

[bono47]

Why? You need a team clearly better. This isn't 1994--the goal isn't to run the table--it's just be in the top 12.
It's why I've been telling everyone for weeks at 10-2 we'd be a lock but people refused to accept that FACT
Bama isn't dead--their resume is still on par, if not better, than Miami or SMU
Hell, it might still be better than Indiana's

This original post by you is a microcosm on your larger psychological profile. Obviously click bait.

Your stumping for a 3 loss Alabama team that just lost to 5 loss Oklahoma and a 3 loss Ole Miss team that just lost to a 5 loss Oklahoma team is the perfect example of what is wrong with you. Go ahead and die on this hill.

 

[LandoComando]

This original post by you is a microcosm on your larger psychological profile. Obviously click bait.

Your stumping for a 3 loss Alabama team that just lost to 5 loss Oklahoma and a 3 loss Ole Miss team that just lost to a 5 loss Oklahoma team is the perfect example of what is wrong with you. Go ahead and die on this hill.

I'm dealing with what will likely happen based on reality. That's all. I hope they're left out because we likely play 11 and I want the easier game. I just understand how these things work. It's the Power 2 and everyone else.
Who have Miami and SMU beat? They have a bad loss each as well.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

CFP Rankings are all that matter - my guess would be:

1. Oregon
2. duhO$U
3. Texas
4. PSU
5. ND
6. Miami
7. UGa
8. Tennessee
9. Indiana
10. Boise
11. SMU
12. Bama (but potentially ASU even 'Ole Miss as Bama's loss to Oklahoma was way worse than 'Ole Miss' loss. Bama got thoroughly dominated by OU's running game a la Vanderbilt).

Not sure it matters as a 5th Conference Champ gets in - IOW, whatever SEC team is 12 is out.

 

[LandoComando]

Also remember A&M can still win the SEC and get an auto bid.

 

[LemonEars]

What about Pitt?

If their QB wins the Heisman, as some of the pitt faithful say he should, I think they have a shot.

 

[84Lion]

It's getting to the point where it's getting difficult to justify places in the CFP for these 3-loss SEC teams. The thing is, there really aren't any other teams out there that are making a case for themselves. It's gonna be interesting to see what the rankings are this week, especially how far Bama and Ole Miss drop. Bama's ahead of Ole Miss, but that loss to Oklahoma was brutal - 3 touchdowns. Ole Miss only lost by 1 TD.

I'd guess that Miami, Georgia, and Tennessee move up. The real question is whether SMU moves up enough that even with a CCG loss they might come in ahead of any of the 3-loss SEC teams. In past, it seemed that late-season losses punished a team ("currency"). Will that happen with Bama and Ole Miss?

If (big IF) TAMU would beat UT, then I assume it'd be TAMU-UGA in the SEC championship. Assuming TAMU wins that and gets an auto-bid, I would say that you'd have 4 SEC teams in (Texas, Tennessee, UGA, TAMU) and Alabama and Ole Miss would be shut out.

 

[LandoComando]

If (big IF) TAMU would beat UT, then I assume it'd be TAMU-UGA in the SEC championship. Assuming TAMU wins that and gets an auto-bid, I would say that you'd have 4 SEC teams in (Texas, Tennessee, UGA, TAMU) and Alabama and Ole Miss would be shut out.

This is accurate--unless ND drop a game--then they may get 5 with Bama/Ole Miss the final debate vs ACC #2/Indiana

 

[Lion84]

No way Bama should het in they loomed horrible yesterday and have in the other games they lost.

 

[LandoComando]

No way Bama should het in they loomed horrible yesterday and have in the other games they lost.

You need 12 teams
The problem is people still think of this as "deserving"--the only job is to get the top 12 teams which is hindered by 5 at large bids
Miami lost to GT and hasn't beat anyone
SMU lost to BYU (finally exposed) and hasn't beat anyone
If not Bama or Ole Miss--who?
I don't understand why fans want to reward playing weak schedules

 

[olelion]

4 Locks (can lose next week)
Texas
Oregon
Ohio State
Penn State

4 Win and In
Georgia (might be a lock now)
Indiana (has to beat Purdue--and should)
Tennessee (Vandy)
Notre Dame (USC)

Auto bids
ACC (SMU/Miami)
Big XII
Boise State

1 spot left
Bama/Ole Miss or the SMU/Miami loser if the committee wants to piss of the SEC


1 Oregon (8 Georgia vs Tennessee)
2 Texas (7 Notre Dame vs 10 Indiana)
3 ACC (6 Penn State vs. 11 Bama/Ole Miss/ACC runner up)
4 Boise State (5 Ohio State vs 12 Big XII)

Big XII conference champion is not a lock

 

[LandoComando]

Big XII conference champion is not a lock

Big XII/Tulane I guess would be more accurate
I think the Big XII stay ahead of them though since Tulane lost to K-State
I don't think Army has any chance to get in if they win the American
Maybe I'm missing someone but....the Big XII seems pretty safe this morning

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Big XII conference champion is not a lock

No, but the highest ranked 5th Conference Champion is.... doesn't much matter wether it's a B12 team or AAC team - either way, a 12th ranked SEC team is out.

 

[84Lion]

If not Bama or Ole Miss--who?
I don't understand why fans want to reward playing weak schedules

Well, Bama played Mercer last week, and Western Kentucky to open the season. They did play Wisconsin (at Wisky) but Wisky got their butt kicked by Nebraska yesterday and needs a win (against Minnesota) next week to become bowl-eligible. Aside from that, SEC teams only play an 8-team conference schedule.

And Ole Miss? Well, they've played Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. Their losses were all within one score, so there's that.

One thing you have to remember is the SEC bias - in the AP poll, week 1, you had UGA #1, Texas #3, Bama #4, Ole Miss #6. It's going to take a few seasons (and some post-season losses) before the SEC is seen as mortal.

 

[NoBareFeet]

Going to bed but for those saying CCG shouldn't negatively impact a team
If Boise State falls to Colorado State (let's just say) should an 11-2 Boise State still be in with a loss to Oregon and wins over....literally no one.

UNLV and Wazzu are as good or better wins than any we have...

 

[LandoComando]

Well, Bama played Mercer last week, and Western Kentucky to open the season. They did play Wisconsin (at Wisky) but Wisky got their butt kicked by Nebraska yesterday and needs a win (against Minnesota) next week to become bowl-eligible. Aside from that, SEC teams only play an 8-team conference schedule.

And Ole Miss? Well, they've played Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. Their losses were all within one score, so there's that.

One thing you have to remember is the SEC bias - in the AP poll, week 1, you had UGA #1, Texas #3, Bama #4, Ole Miss #6. It's going to take a few seasons (and some post-season losses) before the SEC is seen as mortal.

All of this is great. Now sell another team. The argument is SMU or Miami. Loom at SOS and SOR.

 

[heckmans]

Florida State was undefeated and won but they were dropped
Losing a title game when you haven't played anyone all year matters.

If that's true, then they shouldn't be ranked there now.

 

[LandoComando]

If that's true, then they shouldn't be ranked there now.

They shouldn't be--see what happened to FSU last year and they won
If SMU or Miami gets blown out they're done.

 

[lazydave841]

UNLV and Wazzu are as good or better wins than any we have...

How many P4 wins do either have?

 

[RickinDayton]

This Tuesday's rankings could set things up for the ACC #2 vs SEC #4 debate.

If SMU is ranked above Ole Miss and Bama, they are setting up for the ACC ccg loser to get in.

If SMU is ranked below one or both SEC teams, they are setting up for the SEC #4 to get in above the ACC ccg loser.

I think right now, the SEC #4 is probably Ole Miss. They were 2 spots lower than Bama coming into today's game. They lost by a TD; Bama lost by 3 TDs and were effectively shutdown by OU. Both will drop, but how far?

How they reshuffle #11 to #17 will be important. 14, 15, and 16 all lost. Clemson and South Carolina could be as high as 11/12 with the winner of their game being in position for a backdoor playoff spot. I assume Miami is in the ACC ccg with a win over Syracuse (holding the tiebreaker over Clemson due to beating Louisville while Clemson lost to them).

Somebody mentioned it above: South Carolina could get the hype this week. With a win vs Clemson they would have 3 ranked wins down the stretch and a 6 game win streak. However, they also lost to both Ole Miss and Bama and if we compare scores, Ole Miss comes out the better again.

My rankings guess (how i think they look Tuesday):

1 Oregon
2 Ohio State
3 Texas
4 Penn State
5 Notre Dame
6 Miami
7 Georgia
8 Tennessee
9 Indiana
10 Boise State
11 SMU
12 Ole Miss
---------------
13 Clemson
14 Bama
15 South Carolina
16 Arizona State*
17 Tulane
18 BYU
19 Iowa State
20 Illinois
21 A&M
22 Missouri
23 UNLV
24 Kansas State
25 Colorado

Bye seeds: 1 Oregon, 2 Texas, 3 Miami, 4 Boise State
1st round:
5 OSU vs 12 Arizona State
6 PSU vs 11 SMU
7 Notre Dame vs 10 Indiana
8 UGA vs Tennessee

Ole Miss 1st team out TODAY, not assuming any wins/losses for future ccgs.

Question, is the Big 12 champion guaranteed in? Or can they be left out? I'm assuming they are in.

Has anyone watched a complete SMU game? I have nut but I know they have real speed at RB & WR and an excellent dual threat QB. Not sure about their defense.

 

[LandoComando]

Has anyone watched a complete SMU game? I have nut but I know they have real speed at RB & WR and an excellent dual threat QB. Not sure about their defense.

I've watched them a decent amount...they aren't that impressive. They're well coached like Indiana which is why I think they beat Miami but they're not a team anyone should fear

 

[lazydave841]

Has anyone watched a complete SMU game? I have nut but I know they have real speed at RB & WR and an excellent dual threat QB. Not sure about their defense.

I saw them early in the year. Week 0. Nevada. They weren't very impressive then. Squeaked out a win late there.

Saw some of the Duke game. Seemed improved. Duke plays good defense, but their offense makes ours look like the '99 Rams. Duke chanced a 2 pt conversion in OT and lost.

They will struggle vs any defense with a pulse if they make the playoff. Vs Miami in the hypothetical ccg will probably be a shootout like every Miami game.

 

[Delcolion915]

Alabama is in. Exactly as I said earlier. According to the latest coaches poll, Alabama will be in. The only question is whether they get the 11 or the 12.

However according to the poll, PSU will hold the 5 if they lose to Oregon over ND, UNLESS Texas loses, then they get the 6.

 

[Delcolion915]

More than half of my projections have us hosting Alabama in the first round which will be the toughest of all the home first round games.

Edit: 2nd toughest. Ohio State will have Tennessee who beat Alabama.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Alabama is in. Exactly as I said earlier. According to the latest coaches poll, Alabama will be in. The only question is whether they get the 11 or the 12.

However according to the poll, PSU will hold the 5 if they lose to Oregon over ND, UNLESS Texas loses, then they get the 6.

Not necessarily if Clump-son wins the ACC CCG.....

In that case, both the B12 and ACC champ would currently be outside the Top 12 right now.... and would eliminate 11 and 12 from bracket.

 

[Delcolion915]

Not necessarily if Clump-son wins the ACC CCG.....

In that case, both the B12 and ACC champ would currently be outside the Top 12 right now.... and would eliminate 11 and 12 from bracket.

You best believe if Clemson beats SMU, they're putting Alabama in over SMU

 

[rrdd2021]

I usually like to bet (just a little, not much) om CF but I'm staying away from picking a NC this year as anyone of 6 to 8 teams could win it all including Miami and OSU - even after their crappy showings yesterday.

 

[LandoComando]

I usually like to bet (just a little, not much) om CF but I'm staying away from picking a NC this year as anyone of 6 to 8 teams could win it all including Miami and OSU - even after their crappy showings yesterday.

Miami? Miami has one of the worst defenses in the country

I agree that maybe 6 teams could win (Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Tennessee--it goes to 7 if Bama or USCe gets in) but Miami wasn't a contender before they lost to Syracuse. SMU has a better shot IMO

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

You best believe if Clemson beats SMU, they're putting Alabama in over SMU

Really? SMU is ranked 7th in Coaches Poll just released - up two spots and in front of a duhO$U team that just lost their second game to a 5-loss team. If the CFP Rankings are the same, SMU goes into ACC Championship Game #7 - if they lose, it is extremely doubtful they "penalize" SMU for playing in a CCG (something Alabama is not having to do).

 

[doctornick]

Alabama is in. Exactly as I said earlier. According to the latest coaches poll, Alabama will be in. The only question is whether they get the 11 or the 12.

However according to the poll, PSU will hold the 5 if they lose to Oregon over ND, UNLESS Texas loses, then they get the 6.

The CFP rankings don’t necessarily follow the other poll results. I’m actually quite curious as to how the CFP rankings treat SMU, Miami-FL, Bama and USCe this week. That will tell us a lot about who is getting in depending on the ACC championship result.

 

[The ticket guy]

I lied--who needs sleep--real quick

Top 16 on Tuesday IMO
1 Oregon
2 Ohio State
3 Texas
4 Penn State
--------------HUGE GAP-------------
5 Notre Dame
6 Georgia
7 Tennessee
8 Miami
9 Boise State
10 SMU
11 Indiana
12 Arizona State
---------------
13 Bama
14 Ole Miss
15 South Carolina
16 Clamson

Georgia should be 5 but I doubt they do that yet

No way does S Carolina stay at 15 coming off a huge road win against their bitter rival Clemson. Over the past 6 weeks they are the best team coming into the playoffs

 

[LandoComando]

No way does S Carolina stay at 15 coming off a huge road win against their bitter rival Clemson. Over the past 6 weeks they are the best team coming into the playoffs

I agree. This was before that game.

 

[Delcolion915]

I agree. This was before that game.

So you are saying South Carolina is going to be ahead of Alabama on Tuesday?

 

[LandoComando]

So you are saying South Carolina is going to be ahead of Alabama on Tuesday?

No...again, that's not what was said
I don't understand why reading is such a challenge for you

 

[lazydave841]

I’ll say one: Jack Sawyer could play on my team any day.

I think he's had a great year. His best by far.

No way does S Carolina stay at 15 coming off a huge road win against their bitter rival Clemson. Over the past 6 weeks they are the best team coming into the playoffs

I just wonder if the committee is ready to move them ahead of Bama or Ole Miss. Both beat South Carolina, one very convincingly. Are they really that much better or did the schedule get easier?

 

[Delcolion915]

Alabama will be ranked ahead of South Carolina on Tuesday. Write it down. Stone Cold lock.

 

[lazydave841]

Alabama will be ranked ahead of South Carolina on Tuesday. Write it down. Stone Cold lock.

I think a strong argument could be made for Ole Miss to be ranked higher than both.

 

[lazydave841]

Bert and Kiffin chiming in...

 

[The ticket guy]

I think he's had a great year. His best by far.



I just wonder if the committee is ready to move them ahead of Bama or Ole Miss. Both beat South Carolina, one very convincingly. Are they really that much better or did the schedule get easier?

It will come down to the eye test...what team is playing best at the moment... and right now that is S Carolina

 

[doctornick]

At this point, most of the teams are set and most of the slots are largely determined. I'm expecting that these are the results...

#1/2 seeds: Big Ten champ and SEC champ
#3 seed: ACC champ (definitely if SMU wins, possible it could be Boise St or the Big 12 champ if Clemson wins)
#4 seed: Boise St if they win, Big 12 champ if UNLV wins

#5/6/7 seeds: some combination of Big Ten championship loser, SEC champ loser, Notre Dame. My guess would be Oregon > Texas > PSU > Notre Dame > Georgia

#8/9 seeds: Ohio State and Tennessee in some order. Either could be the 8 seed and host, but I'm pretty much expecting the 8/9 game to be those two teams.

#10 seed: Indiana. This is there most likely landing spot, though I suppose I could see them potentially take #9 (instead of tOSU) or go to #11 if the playoff committee was to jumble things up

#11 seed: this is the most interesting spot to me as it seems the most likely landing place for the one real contested spot. It's possible Maimi-FL could settle here if the CFP Committee believes in them (I don't). I think SMU has a great shot at this if they lose (would definitely get it over Miami-FL). Otherwise, it could be a 3 loss SEC team, with the likely question being Bama vs USCe. Personally I'd pick USCe over Bama due to "better" losses with similar schedule difficulties but I'm expecting Bama to get the pick. I think Ole Miss is out.

#12 seed: seems like the likely landing spot for the Big 12 champ, but.... who knows. The committee might bump up that team to something like #10 or 11 and put the last at large team here instead. If UNLV wins, they definitely will go here and the Big 12 champ gets a bye. If Clemson wins and Boise and Arizona St win, then there's a chance that Clemson ends up here instead.

We'll be able to fit in a bunch of these pieces more accurately after the ranking this week since a number of the teams won't play and thus shouldn't really move (so we can at least see where Tennessee vs Ohio St vs Indiana for example is). Also, it will make it more clear if Miami-FL has a chance and maybe an idea of whether SMU is likely if they lose the ACC championship.

 

[LandoComando]

At this point, most of the teams are set and most of the slots are largely determined. I'm expecting that these are the results...

#1/2 seeds: Big Ten champ and SEC champ
#3 seed: ACC champ (definitely if SMU wins, possible it could be Boise St or the Big 12 champ if Clemson wins)
#4 seed: Boise St if they win, Big 12 champ if UNLV wins

#5/6/7 seeds: some combination of Big Ten championship loser, SEC champ loser, Notre Dame. My guess would be Oregon > Texas > PSU > Notre Dame > Georgia

#8/9 seeds: Ohio State and Tennessee in some order. Either could be the 8 seed and host, but I'm pretty much expecting the 8/9 game to be those two teams.

#10 seed: Indiana. This is there most likely landing spot, though I suppose I could see them potentially take #9 (instead of tOSU) or go to #11 if the playoff committee was to jumble things up

#11 seed: this is the most interesting spot to me as it seems the most likely landing place for the one real contested spot. It's possible Maimi-FL could settle here if the CFP Committee believes in them (I don't). I think SMU has a great shot at this if they lose (would definitely get it over Miami-FL). Otherwise, it could be a 3 loss SEC team, with the likely question being Bama vs USCe. Personally I'd pick USCe over Bama due to "better" losses with similar schedule difficulties but I'm expecting Bama to get the pick. I think Ole Miss is out.

#12 seed: seems like the likely landing spot for the Big 12 champ, but.... who knows. The committee might bump up that team to something like #10 or 11 and put the last at large team here instead. If UNLV wins, they definitely will go here and the Big 12 champ gets a bye. If Clemson wins and Boise and Arizona St win, then there's a chance that Clemson ends up here instead.

We'll be able to fit in a bunch of these pieces more accurately after the ranking this week since a number of the teams won't play and thus shouldn't really move (so we can at least see where Tennessee vs Ohio St vs Indiana for example is). Also, it will make it more clear if Miami-FL has a chance and maybe an idea of whether SMU is likely if they lose the ACC championship.

I agree with all of this--the only "change" I'd make is ASU could end up as high as 3 if Clemson and UNLV win. They might pass Boise State regardless. ASU's been looking pretty solid recently. I do think Ole Miss is out--Miami should be out but might not be