Playoff Picture (with A&M losing to Auburn/Bama to OU)

[doctornick]

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Bert and Kiffin chiming in...

I mean Bielema is right... if you are sitting there debating between Bama/USCe/Ole Miss then Illinois should be in the conversation too.

 

[lazydave841]

I mean Bielema is right... if you are sitting there debating between Bama/USCe/Ole Miss then Illinois should be in the conversation too.

Illinois' problem is two fold:

1. They don't have any ranked wins. Michigan probably qualifies as their best.
2. They don't have any brand cache and the "Big 10" label doesn't attach as easily as the "SEC" label without back 2 back success.

Do I think they'd beat any if those 3 SEC teams? No.

Should my opinion keep them out? No.

 

[doctornick]

Illinois' problem is two fold:

1. They don't have any ranked wins. Michigan probably qualifies as their best.
2. They don't have any brand cache and the "Big 10" label doesn't attach as easily as the "SEC" label without back 2 back success.

Do I think they'd beat any if those 3 SEC teams? No.

Should my opinion keep them out? No.

I mean don’t get me wrong - I’m not advocating for Illinois or think they are good enough to be there but they can make a case that is comparable but different as the likes of Ole Miss.

I’m increasingly thinking that SMU will make it in with a loss and render the discussion of 3 loss SEC teams to be moot in that circumstance. Of course if SMU wins then it’s still an SEC team getting there or possibly Miami-FL

 

[lazydave841]

I mean don’t get me wrong - I’m not advocating for Illinois or think they are good enough to be there but they can make a case that is comparable but different as the likes of Ole Miss.

I’m increasingly thinking that SMU will make it in with a loss and render the discussion of 3 loss SEC teams to be moot in that circumstance. Of course if SMU wins then it’s still an SEC team getting there or possibly Miami-FL

Another thing that hurts the SEC, ahem, *should* hurt the SEC is the fact they only play 8 conference games. What is the likelihood that the 3 loss teams wouldn't have their 4th loss if they played 9? At 5-3, it's a safe assumption that 1 of them would.

I think where they position SMU tomorrow night will be a good tell. If they are just one spot ahead of the bubble teams, a loss could doom them. If 2 or more, I don't think they get booted.

The thing about Clemson is this: just because they win and qualify doesn't mean the rankings change drastically. They can be considered #16 and still get in as the auto bid.

 

[doctornick]

Another thing that hurts the SEC, ahem, *should* hurt the SEC is the fact they only play 8 conference games. What is the likelihood that the 3 loss teams wouldn't have their 4th loss if they played 9? At 5-3, it's a safe assumption that 1 of them would.

I've been a big proponent of considering "number of games versus Power 4 teams" as at least part of the measurement of SOS. If SEC teams want to play 8 conference games, they should be playing 2 Power 4 teams non-conference then to make up for the smaller conference schedule. Playing 3+ cupcakes is always going to be easier than one with more consistently competitive teams there.

Yeah, Notre Dame, I'm looking at you and your pathetic total of only 8 Power 4 opponents this season.

And full disclosure: I think PSU is terrible with their non-conference opponents the next two seasons. They should cancel the stupid Temple series and add a real team for 2025/26 (home in 2025, away in 2026).

I think where they position SMU tomorrow night will be a good tell. If they are just one spot ahead of the bubble teams, a loss could doom them. If 2 or more, I don't think they get booted.

SMU was already above Indiana and Boise St last week so I suspect they will still have a bit of a buffer there.