yeah, that small plot of land I bought a few years back on Mt. Everest is eventually going to come in handy some day.
National Emergency declared in Texas
- Thread starter JustinTyme
- Start date
yeah, that small plot of land I bought a few years back on Mt. Everest is eventually going to come in handy some day.
You seem to know more than what I have seen.
yeah, pipelines don’t freeze, but gas going through orifices or choke points can ice up the equipment such as meters. Was that the problem? Or did the various motors involved simply fail to start due to the cold? If the former, were the metering stations overloaded due to sudden demand? If the latter, starting the motors before the cold would have prevented failure.
Why would someone select a very small fraction of the available data range, particularly when that portion of the range has seen
1) proven manipulation of the data set by "scientists" to skew temperatures higher (many have been caught doing this Climategate 2.0: New E-Mails Rock The Global Warming Debate (forbes.com) ) and
2) significant systematic measurement error by placing temperature gauges more predominantly in urbanized areas that read consistently up to several degrees warmer than their nearby rural counterparts?
Thank you so much for educating me on how long man has been around. That was immensely helpful. Basing it off of our interaction, I thought perhaps it was yesterday. Specifically, when you came to be.
Maybe you didn't understand this but the gas pipelines froze because they don't contain pure gas. All kinds of stuff including water is in those gas lines.
The letter from the DoE is red herring that some internet nutcases are using as an invented excuse. Even ERCOT isn't claiming this.
For a large fraction of the graph you used, Earth was not inhabitable by humans, the atmosphere would have been toxic. Why would you want to include anything prior to 10,000 years ago??? Just so you can ignore the climate crisis. I get it.
My power and internet finally came back online and I come back to this thread which I see has now fallen into the usual BWI bickering and pointless sh!tshow so I guess I can stop reading it now.
I hope those Texas posters that were impacted are safe and are getting somewhat back to normal. Water is now the #1 issue in Austin, it's shut off for some and city wide we are boiling. Many have burst pipes and damage to sort out. Fortunately mine is up and running and my pipes are intact. Boiling is a minor inconvenience and I'm in a pretty good spot right now which is more than I can say for many others.
I hope those Texas posters that were impacted are safe and are getting somewhat back to normal. Water is now the #1 issue in Austin, it's shut off for some and city wide we are boiling. Many have burst pipes and damage to sort out. Fortunately mine is up and running and my pipes are intact. Boiling is a minor inconvenience and I'm in a pretty good spot right now which is more than I can say for many others.
Simple. In a place like Texas, if you install enough wind turbines and solar and you have some kind of pump (gas or hydro) storage you will always have a dependable amount of renewable power. The wind is always blowing somewhere and Texas has a very strong average solar intensity.
Germany with a much less favorable solar intensity gets 50% of its power from renewables right now (35% comes from wind 5% from solar and the rest from hydro, biomass, geothermal...). Texas could certainly do better.
You are confusing a few things.
1) You brought up a correlation of greenhouse gases to temperature. That proposed correlation would have zero to do with humans. If such a correlation existed, it would have existed before and after humans. Are humans in little gerbil wheels converting greenhouse gases into heat in your mind? The greenhouse effect is one thing but the Earth is a much more complex system than greenhouse effect acting in isolation with no other system feedbacks. The graph that I posted clearly shows that at any time in the Earth's living history that atmospheric CO2 is UNCORRELATED with temperature. You'd need to be a complete moron or totally graphically illiterate to not understand this.
2) Because humans did not yet exist on this Earth does not mean that conditions were inhabitable by humans. Not that it is germane to the failed point you were attempting but the Earth's atmosphere was in fact hospitable to humans for much of the graph. Mammals existed on Earth for about 320 million years and are thought to have first originated in the Carboniferous Period. I'll permit you to ignore the first third of the graph if you aren't capable of understanding point 1 above.
3) Wanting to include the vast majority of the available data IS BEING AS TRANSPARENT AND COMPLETE AS POSSIBLE. It is what real scientists do. Even posters who have been propagandized into
Boring. There are water separators and desiccants to minimize water in the system. Freezing will occur where fluids pass through an orifice in the system. However the freezing is frosting on the outside of the pipe while the fluid warms. The frosting could screw things up. Basic air conditioning physics. If there enough water laying in the system to cause problems it would be because the system had not been active for awhile.
Again. Why didn’t he systems get fired up earlier?
Is global warming now synonymous with climate change? Because I was told they were different.
Germany is trying to build a gas line from Russia.
"Blowing somewhere" is pretty useless if the windmill can't move to always go get it.
I hope not till Bergy hoists the cup😉
I read your post about power grids near a hospital. I live about 2 blocks from a hospital. I don’t think I’ve lost power in 13-14 years. Except for one circumstance. We had a mini microburst in my neighborhood. Trees down everywhere. Neighbors told transformers blew up. Sounded like fireworks. 2 trees down in my yard. I got home about an hour afterwards and power was already back on. You could see and smell smoke. Looked like a bomb went off
you are an idiot if you think a natural gas line can freeze. that right there shows you know nothing. there is not 'all kinds of stuff" nor water in any natural gas line. a gas fired large power plant can have the water lines it freeze if not freeze protected properly, which could easily be the case in Texas as they were not built to withstand single digit temperatures and sub freezing for 3-4 straight days. but i can assure you not natural gas line 'froze.
Last 10,000 years:
Figure 37. Holocene global temperature change reconstruction. a. Red curve, global average temperature reconstruction from Marcott et al., 2013, figure 1. The averaging method does not correct for proxy drop out which produces an artificially enhanced terminal spike, while the Monte Carlo smoothing eliminates most variability information. b. Black curve, global average temperature reconstruction from Marcott et al., 2013, using proxy published dates, and differencing average. Temperature anomaly was rescaled to match biological, glaciological, and marine sedimentary evidence, indicating the Holocene Climate Optimum was about 1.2°C warmer than LIA. c. Purple curve, Earth’s axis obliquity is shown to display a similar trend to Holocene temperatures. Source: Marcott et al., 2013.
Last 10,000 years:
Figure 37. Holocene global temperature change reconstruction. a. Red curve, global average temperature reconstruction from Marcott et al., 2013, figure 1. The averaging method does not correct for proxy drop out which produces an artificially enhanced terminal spike, while the Monte Carlo smoothing eliminates most variability information. b. Black curve, global average temperature reconstruction from Marcott et al., 2013, using proxy published dates, and differencing average. Temperature anomaly was rescaled to match biological, glaciological, and marine sedimentary evidence, indicating the Holocene Climate Optimum was about 1.2°C warmer than LIA. c. Purple curve, Earth’s axis obliquity is shown to display a similar trend to Holocene temperatures. Source: Marcott et al., 2013.
That graph needs a good hockey stick.
With regard to your point number one there's a guy whose son I coached in baseball who was given a huge severance package to retire early because he was one of the scientist who consistently would not go along with the information that you posted. He said anybody who disagreed with their agenda was paid handsomely to retire early.
Not to make light of the subject but per SNL:
This is the most snow in Texas since Michael Irvin’s Super Bowl party.
😀
This is the most snow in Texas since Michael Irvin’s Super Bowl party.
😀
Yeah. This shows a total difference of 1 deg C over 10,000 years. We are on the road to a 2.5 deg rise by mid 21st century. QEDLast 10,000 years:
Figure 37. Holocene global temperature change reconstruction. a. Red curve, global average temperature reconstruction from Marcott et al., 2013, figure 1. The averaging method does not correct for proxy drop out which produces an artificially enhanced terminal spike, while the Monte Carlo smoothing eliminates most variability information. b. Black curve, global average temperature reconstruction from Marcott et al., 2013, using proxy published dates, and differencing average. Temperature anomaly was rescaled to match biological, glaciological, and marine sedimentary evidence, indicating the Holocene Climate Optimum was about 1.2°C warmer than LIA. c. Purple curve, Earth’s axis obliquity is shown to display a similar trend to Holocene temperatures. Source: Marcott et al., 2013.
The entire gas line didn't "freeze" but enough water was in the lines that in the locations where they needed to flow quickly through small openings (that's called an orifice), the kinetic energy induced temperature drop caused freezing. (Does that make it simple enough for you?) Of course if the lines had been insulated the way they are further north, none of this would have happened. Also the gas suppliers and ERCOT ignored the advice they were given 10 years ago to winterize their equipment.
You are always good for some absolute nonsense. I bet you fell out of your chair. What does a German company wanting to make money off of natural gas have to do with their getting 35% of their power from wind turbines???
The freezing happened. ERCOT couldn't get gas to power plants and they are blaming it on freezing. There is definitely different levels of water in the system. If the frosting was the issue, so be it. ERCOT blamed the issues on frozen gas pipe lines. Clearly it doesn't matter whether it was on the outside (around orifices where interior temp drop could cause frosting on the outside) or not.
Fortunately, you are too stupid to be embarrassed by your stupidity.
A. It’s a Russian company. B. Germany is buying huge amounts of nat gas becaus they know wind ain’t gonna cut it.
So Texas has 1500 wind turbines now. ERCOT expected wind to supply only 7% of needed power. But half of them failed so wind supplied somewhere around 4%. So if wind is to replace evil, terrible, destructive, killing-the-planet fossil fuels Texas would need to build 36,000 more windmills.
Yeah, sounds like a plan....
Let us set the parameters. Wind failed. Fossil failed. The grid failed. Ercot failed. Fossil management failed. The DOE failed. Agree?
How do we fix going forward:
1. Wind. Winterize the current wind turbines. Several million. Build thousands more turbines to have sufficient capacity for spikes. Tens or hundreds of millions to build. My opinion is this is outlandishly expensive and may not prevent a similar fiasco. Your position is the turbines will pay off in the long term financially and help the planet.
2. Fossil. Proper maintenance including winterization. The cost should not be too much as it should have happened but didn’t for reasons which are unknown now. Call this a million a year, but it should already be in the budget. Power plants around the world work fine with this maintenance, including Siberia. Do you disagree?
3. Ercot. Ercot talked about winterization in a zoom call. Apparently that was all they did. Further, they tried to maximize wind while cutting way back on fossil and nuclear. I say they did so without proper planning For weather and fossil capacity availability.
4. DOE. Can we agree that the memo regarding waiving emissions standards is legit? If so the DOE said Ok but placed restrictions which delayed response. I know you wish to place blame purely on fossil but the delay meant the fossils weren’t fired up until after it got cold. If all the equipment had been started before it got cold, failures would likely have been minimal—in my uneducated guess. We will see after the future investigations.
What does Texas do now? Fix their fossil problems or wind problems? One million or hundreds of millions? Just my opinion but the basic outline is fairly accurate although some details will be wrong.
Disclaimer: Unlike the rest of you, I am not an expert on power generation, transmission, or grid management- nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn last night.
But it does seem to me that if a state is going to choose to not be a part of even a regional grid that that state should make sure that it's grid is built, maintained, and managed well enough to handle not only the usual but also the unusual. Otherwise, one might make the observation that the people in charge are "all hat, no cattle".
But it does seem to me that if a state is going to choose to not be a part of even a regional grid that that state should make sure that it's grid is built, maintained, and managed well enough to handle not only the usual but also the unusual. Otherwise, one might make the observation that the people in charge are "all hat, no cattle".
Since we know that wind turbines work fine in Manitoba and Germany all winter long, maybe they just need turbines that have been winterized. Or maybe they need a combination of turbines and solar and nuclear with some storage based on compressed air or pump storage or both.
No, you keep to your factually challenged story that renewables can't be a reliable part of the grid. The entire world has already woken up to the fact that it can be and will.
1. I would like to see where you get your price tag on winterizing turbines. It's a cost that has been absorbed in most of the rest of the world, Colorado, Canada, Germany, Sweden, etc. All of those places have thriving economies and aren't rationing energy the last I checked.
2. Fossil fuels are the primary culprit in our ongoing climate crisis (aka global warming). The climate crises that is going on right now. We need to reduce usage of fossil as much as possible.
3. ERCOT. Where is the data showing that ERCOT cut way back on fossil and nuclear while trying to maximize wind??? This is a made up backstory being circulated by politically motivated hacks.
ERCOT always planned to use whatever resources they had, and that included about 7% of their expected load from wind. The reality is that when you have wind turbines on-line, you use them because thats the economy of installed wind power. However, ERCOT always planned to backfill energy need with gas since gas turbines can be started up very quickly (although this time, not so much). When the weather came, the load increased to the HIGHEST IN THE HISTORY of ERCOT a level they did not predict. The same wind turbines that were expected to produce 7% of course produced less (that's how percentages work). However ERCOT SPOKESMAN SAID THE TURBINES PRODUCED MORE kW*hr THAN EXPECTED. So, they produced more energy than expected. (I assume this low expectation is because they didn't winterize).
4. DOE letter. This is a red herring. The only thing clear from that letter is that the DoE agreed to ERCOT's request to waive clean air standards in the event they needed to do so in response to the winter storm. There's no evidence that ERCOT delayed start-up of any power plants due to this agreement. The only known significant price changes occurred this week due to a huge jump in market price on natural gas. Thousands of consumers in Texas are getting stuck with huge bills due to this (unregulated energy market). The DoE never collected any fees related to this speculated effect.
1. A Technician earlier this thread mentioned some of the things that would have to be done which I would guesstimate to cost some significant coin. Otherwise it would be part of the base model. 1500 turbines times ?? $1000 $50,000 $100,000??
2. If that is your only calculus, then skip all other discussion and throw away your air conditioner. Then kick back and watch how many people die in this And any subsequent event.
3. Ercot planned poorly. This has been discussed. But if wind was only expected to supply 7% then it is irrelevant to a solution for next year. How much will it cost to make it relevant? By the way, wind miserably failed in the initial spike in demand.
4. OK the DOE letter is legit. The DOE set the prices before any spikes in demand or gas prices. You say that the exorbitant price was offset by the gas price spike. DOE didn’t know that price beforehand, so again you make something up.
I would posit that if you go nuclear you don't need all the rest of that worthless and environmentally harmful crap.
BTW, Germany disagrees about how well windmills work. In case you haven't figured it out yet, it's why they want that gas line from the worst country and greatest threat to US democracy on this earth.
Germany is already at 50% renewables and is committed to go to 100% by 2050. I don't know how the pipeline figures into anything but as another poster pointed out, it's a Russian company that wants to build it.
It’s a Russian company that is building it.......because Germany has contracted to buy huge amounts of nat gas. Man you are truly ignorant of reality.
1. Whatever the technician quoted, I would like to see the actual numbers to Texas from a legit quote. Since other places are doing it economically, in fact most places using wind turbines are in northern latitudes all year round. So your numbers must be off base.
2. Yeah the climate crisis is real. It's the biggest challenge of the 21st century.
3. Repeat: Wind delivered what ERCOT expected. The actual demand dwarfed what they had hoped for. Their own spokesperson said wind actually over-delivered. And if they had winterized, it would have been the only thing delivering. Of course they ignored the recommendations from a decade ago and didn't require anyone to winterize. That's what happens when the fox runs the henhouse.
4. The DOE letter is a red herring that only right wing hacks are using as a diversion. There's zero evidence or even a comment from ERCOT that the pricing in the letter drove any decisions. Of course it didn't because the way a grid works is you provide power on-demand. There's no storage on the grid! There's no evidence that ERCOT told the gas or coal plants not to operate during the storm because of higher rates.
In fact Texas customers are getting bills of over $1000s right now because of the natural gas pricing. (Some folks got $200K bills but they were told it was in error). This wasn't a DoE price control (which in fact doesn't exist since nobody has paid it) it was market driven.
Nonsense, the purpose of the pipeline is to offset oil and coal use, but it is definitely controversial in Germany.
So you're either ignorant or just lie for the hell of it.
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Despite some "facebook posts"
VERIFY: Energy Department gave Texas an emergency OK to exceed pollution limits
Claims online say that the US Energy Department denied requests from Texas’ electricity distributor to operate at maximum levels. The claims are not true.
www.khou.com
To get a simple explanation of what happened.
How Texas’ Drive for Energy Independence Set It Up for Disaster (Published 2021)
Texas has refused to join interstate electrical grids and railed against energy regulation. Now it’s having to answer to millions of residents who were left without power in last week’s snowstorm.
And if you think ERCOT is run by wild-eyed windmill loving liberals:
Texas governor’s biggest donors: Energy industry that failed
AUSTIN, Texas >> As frozen Texas reels under one of the worst electricity outages in U.S. history, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has blamed grid operators and iced-over wind turbines but gone easier on another culprit: an oil and gas industry that is the state’s dominant business and his biggest...
www.staradvertiser.com
You cite some fact checker who doesn’t address the issue we have talked about since the memo leaked. DOE waived the emissions only so far and so long as needed. DOE didn’t expressly state power up now. Further any such power would be charged at sky high rates designed to discourage use of the waiver.Despite some "facebook posts"
VERIFY: Energy Department gave Texas an emergency OK to exceed pollution limits
Claims online say that the US Energy Department denied requests from Texas’ electricity distributor to operate at maximum levels. The claims are not true.
To get a simple explanation of what happened.
How Texas’ Drive for Energy Independence Set It Up for Disaster (Published 2021)
Texas has refused to join interstate electrical grids and railed against energy regulation. Now it’s having to answer to millions of residents who were left without power in last week’s snowstorm.www.nytimes.com
And if you think ERCOT is run by wild-eyed windmill loving liberals:
Texas governor’s biggest donors: Energy industry that failed
AUSTIN, Texas >> As frozen Texas reels under one of the worst electricity outages in U.S. history, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has blamed grid operators and iced-over wind turbines but gone easier on another culprit: an oil and gas industry that is the state’s dominant business and his biggest...
The only number I actually quoted was 1500 turbines. I ask what a retrofit would cost. I would guess $1000 is lowball and that is $1.5mm. I would recommend jumping all over that but I would guess the real number is much higher.
Again, if climate your only issue you don’t need to discuss anything. You just need trillions of $ to implement the green new deal whether it works or not.
management screwed up the grid plan. So how do you fix it? How many turbines do you need to build? You can do the math because you don’t believe anyone else.
DOE discouraged using the waiver by using a huge number for the price. I don’t know if that drove decisions by ercot any more than you do.
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