No that is known as a gambler's fallacy... a term well known, I think, on the Iowa team....
NCAA Brackets and discussion
- Thread starter RB-Old
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I don’t think Woods results have anything to do with Marinelli’s, Kemerer’s Eierman’s, etc…
Psycho's path:
- R1: 31 Mayfield (NW)
- R2: 15 Cassella (Binghamton) or 18 Brady (VT)
- Qtrs: 7 Olejnik (OKST) or 10 Amine
- Semis: 3 Ramirez or 6 Caliendo
Meanwhile, Hamiti vs. Carr in the quarters, winner gets O'Toole.
I foresee a lot of bonus points from Mitchell with that draw.Psycho's path:
- R1: 31 Mayfield (NW)
- R2: 15 Cassella (Binghamton) or 18 Brady (VT)
- Qtrs: 7 Olejnik (OKST) or 10 Amine
- Semis: 3 Ramirez or 6 Caliendo
Meanwhile, Hamiti vs. Carr in the quarters, winner gets O'Toole.
Utterly ridiculous that they seeded Starocci so he will see #1 Seed in Quarters - just totally screwing over the #1 Seed. Just utter silliness that Carter is seeing #1 Seed in 2nd RD of NCAA Tournament.
I actually like Franek’s draw to get to the semis. Kellar round 2 is tough but hasn’t faced much competition. Teemer will be tough in the quarters but his losses are to Robb (6-4) and Chittum (9-5). Franek beat Chittum and Robb twice. Would probably mean Shapiro in the semis and not likely to win that.
Watch Cody Chuttum at 14 here. It went to 2nd OT against #5 Ryder Downey and he was the aggressor. Seems like a big spread for a 2UTB match.Levi's path:
- R1: pigtail winner between 32 Wilcox (anOSU) vs. 33 Stampoulos (Buffalo)
- R2: 16 Travis (OKST) or 17 Mauller (Missouri)
- Qtrs: 8 Robb or 9 Lewan
- Semis: 4 Scott (NC State) or 5 Downey (N. Iowa)
Could be worse: Shapiro got Chittum in R2.
1. The difference between 3rd and 9th is 8.5 points.
2. Projecting team scores assuming bracket goes chalk and no bonus is a waste of time.
Agree on Chittum, but not for that reason.
If losing in OT were some kind of rationale, then Lewan should be higher than 9.
True - maybe CP is just wasting everyone's time (again).
it's just not everyday you see tOSU that far down on a list.
Kasak v Abas is deceptively interesting. I think the seed is probaly wrong for Abas. He seems to be ranked anywhere between 9-15, not 26.
157 is absolutely crazy. Probable second round matches are
Levi vs Mauller
Lewan vs Robb
Downey vs Andonian
Blockhus vs Scott
Shapiro vs Chittum
Lee vs Cardenas
Kellar vs Franek
Swensen/Zerban vs Teemer
Those are some fire matches especially for the second round
I think MM, Kasak, and Truax got wonderful draws. I know Parco beat Lovett but I feel that Kasak matches up really well with Parco. Mesenbrink got the dream draw. Even Peyton Hall who wrestles KOT super tough is up top. I’ll be shocked if MM doesn’t make the finals. I could see Bernie making the finals as well. Not predicting it but he has it set up pretty nicely
Nagao definitely the toughest and Bartletts isn’t easy especially for the 2 seed
Levi vs Mauller
Lewan vs Robb
Downey vs Andonian
Blockhus vs Scott
Shapiro vs Chittum
Lee vs Cardenas
Kellar vs Franek
Swensen/Zerban vs Teemer
Those are some fire matches especially for the second round
I think MM, Kasak, and Truax got wonderful draws. I know Parco beat Lovett but I feel that Kasak matches up really well with Parco. Mesenbrink got the dream draw. Even Peyton Hall who wrestles KOT super tough is up top. I’ll be shocked if MM doesn’t make the finals. I could see Bernie making the finals as well. Not predicting it but he has it set up pretty nicely
Nagao definitely the toughest and Bartletts isn’t easy especially for the 2 seed
The correlation would be burn out and injury due to the same training regimen.
The real land mines there are Chittum vs Shapiro and Zerban vs Teemer
Teemer’s draw is ridiculous for a 2 seed. Zerban then Franek then Shapiro then Haines. If he runs that gauntlet, he deserves it.
Clearly there's some warm fuzzies for Griffith because as we're constantly told, his 165 NC singlehandedly save Stanford's program.
Also Teemer with Zerban then Franek. Not confident in either of those for himLevi's path:
- R1: pigtail winner between 32 Wilcox (anOSU) vs. 33 Stampoulos (Buffalo)
- R2: 16 Travis (OKST) or 17 Mauller (Missouri)
- Qtrs: 8 Robb or 9 Lewan
- Semis: 4 Scott (NC State) or 5 Downey (N. Iowa)
Could be worse: Shapiro got Chittum in R2.
I just watched the Hendrickson/Bastida match and it was interesting Bastida scored twice on counters. Also, WH had a look on his face after Bastida put him on his back that looked the look on Derek White's face when Cassar was getting swipes.
There's a downside in having a third of your matches end in a fall under a minute and winning 80% by Fall. most of them in the first period. Too many opponents ranking below 100 where you aren't being challenged. When GK got a couple really low ranked opponents, he got quick pins too.
Bastida isn't to be underestimated, but Hendrickson got frustrated by Bastida's defense and had he wrestled a little better, perhaps with the benefit of more ranked guys he'd have probably squeaked it out.
lol. What about projecting them based on wrestlestat predictions?
(Which I hope to see you do.)
Can’t wait to see Manning’s tweet in 2031.
It’s like you do probabilities using division of fractions rather than multiplication.
That would put Kemp opposite Lewis, but as an 8, it’s still Starocci vs Mekhi in the quarters.
With a little bit of sense, the committee would have looked at the bracket the stats alone produced and said let’s drop Carter to the 10 seed so we don’t have Lewis and Carter in the QFs.
Same with some other weights where guys that just wrestled meet each other early.
March Madness selection committee does things like this. But wrestling is too stupid.
Matthews is good, but he's got a very tough first round match against Mitch Moore. There's a decent chance Beau vs Matthews doesn't even happen.
A 10 seed just screws the 2 seed in the quarters, although it does give us a Carter / Lewis final, so I see your point there.
Another option is Carter at 12, which guarantees he doesn't see a top 3 seed until the semis.
Well, at the risk of being stoned, if Carter were at 100% he’d be as much of a no-doubter as possible in sports vs anyone. The question is at what percentage of full capacity will Carter be wrestling? 80%, 50%, less? I certainly hope it’s 80% or greater, but if it’s 50% or less vs Lewis then who knows what happens? Ok, let the stoning commence!
Beau has been playing with fire all year. Low scoring close bouts. Somehow needs to find more offense!
I feel very confident that Beau will make the finals, and equally as confident that he will force me to increase my Lisinopril dosage in the process.
I like Rip Van Winkle too. It's about time this conversation turned to bourbon!
The vibe I'm getting is that Carter is as healthy as any wrestler on the team at the moment. Maybe even healthier since he didn't have to wrestle 10 days ago. I'm not worried at all about his knee, and his MFFs at B1Gs were strictly precautioary.
I predict he uses a younger profile pic by then.
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