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NCAA FLO P4P Rankings Minus the Seniors..Any thoughts?

While we're theorizing: where does Suriano land if he had been healthy?
 
While we're theorizing: where does Suriano land if he had been healthy?
At 16-1 before the injury, with 2 Falls, 2 Tech's, 7 Majors, and 6 Decisions, along with the Gilman loss, I have Nick really close to Brock, Heil, Joseph, and Tomasello, among a couple others. Great for a true freshman, top 15 for sure.
 
1. Zain should be ahead of Snyder
- I don't think there's a lot of separation between the two. That said, during the regular season Zain had his 9-8 (TB-2) win over Sorensen, and his 2-1 win over Collica in the National Duals. By contrast, Snyder's only decisions were at B1Gs to Kroells (14-7) and Medbery (8-5) and to the same two guys at NCAAs (13-7 over Kroells and 6-3 over Medbery in the final). While Zain TFed or pinned everyone he faced at NCAAs, I'm not sure that is enough to move him from 2nd to 1st, and after the two regular season matches I listed above, I would have had Zain 2nd in P4P.
If you go by your criteria, then Zain should be first. Zain had two decision all year. Kyle had four. When it got to crunch time and when the competition got better overall, Zain teched or pinned every opponent at B1Gs and NCAAs. Meanwhile, Kyle had 3 tech falls, 1 major, and 4 decisions. Hardly a dominating performance against better competition. We also have to keep in mind when viewing the regular season that Zain wrestled 19 times, while Snyder wrestled 9 times. It is far easier to have an off night when you wrestle twice as much. That said, Zain was still more dominant from a bonus standpoint even with those two decisions (89% vs 76%).
 
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If you go by your criteria, then Zain should be first. Zain had two decision all year. Kyle had four. When it got to crunch time and when the competition got better overall, Zain teched or pinned every opponent at B1Gs and NCAAs. Meanwhile, Kyle had 3 tech falls, 1 major, and 4 decisions. Hardly a dominating performance against better competition. We also have to keep in mind when viewing the regular season that Zain wrestled 19 times, while Snyder wrestled 9 times. If it far easier to have an off night when you wrestle twice as much. That said, Zain was still more dominant from a bonus standpoint even with those two decisions (89% vs 76%).
To follow up on this, the following is a comparison between Zain and Kyle against top 10 opponents (at the time they wrestled):

Zain:

2 - fall
2 - dec
3 - TF
4 - TF
4 - TF
5 - dec

Kyle:

2 - dec
2 - dec
6 - MD
7 - dec
7 - dec
8 - MD

better quality and more bonus for Zain.
 
Unfortunately, when this topic comes up too many people can't remove the color gold from their head, no matter that the title of the ranking is NCAA P4P.
"Pound for pound costs more than gold.
The longer you play, the more you pay."
-- Grandmaster Flash-tradamus

Translation:
Snyder's gold is not enough.
Snyder did not play enough.
-- Little Old Jive-speaking Lady
 
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Context always helps. First, the Flo P4P rankings after the NCAAs are available at THIS LINK.

Second, you need to keep in mind what their previous P4P ranking was, before NCAAs. Here's the OP's list, with the previous ranking included:

1. Kyle Snyder - (1)
2. Zain - (2)
3. Nolf - (4)
4. Nickal - (10)
5. IMar - (3)
6. Heil - (9)
7. Cenzo - (NR)
8. Hall - (NR)
9. NaTo - (7)
10. Massa - (12)

Cenzo and Hall moving into the top (and 10 & 11 if Seniors are not removed), is pretty remarkable when they were not ranked (i.e., not in the top 20) before NCAAs.

My take on some of the issues raised in the thread:

1. Zain should be ahead of Snyder
- I don't think there's a lot of separation between the two. That said, during the regular season Zain had his 9-8 (TB-2) win over Sorensen, and his 2-1 win over Collica in the National Duals. By contrast, Snyder's only decisions were at B1Gs to Kroells (14-7) and Medbery (8-5) and to the same two guys at NCAAs (13-7 over Kroells and 6-3 over Medbery in the final). While Zain TFed or pinned everyone he faced at NCAAs, I'm not sure that is enough to move him from 2nd to 1st, and after the two regular season matches I listed above, I would have had Zain 2nd in P4P.

2. Cenzo should be ahead of IMar
- that's a tough one. IMar defeated Cenzo two times during the season (dual and B1G semis). He also lost to Isaac Jordan during the regular season (revenged that with a 5-2 victory in the 3rd/4th match at B1Gs) and to Keaton Subjeck (Stanford) during the regular season (revenged that with a 5-1 victory at NCAAs). By contrast, IMar was undefeated during the regular season. Based on their respective records, IMar was ranked #3 in the P4P pre-NCAAs, while Cenzo was not ranked. In the Flo final rankings at 165, Joseph is #1 and IMar is #2. The P4P is less based on what have you done lately, and more based on body of work, and in that case I think that IMar ranked higher than Cenzo is justifiable.
Ok let's look at this "body of work" concept in practice:
Cruz v Gilman ?
Cory (this season) v Brock or NATO or Gross
Cenzo v Imar or Massa
Hall v BoJo or Valencia or Epperly
Bo v Dean
It was wrong at least half the time at the nationals this year. The reason I love wrestling is the wrestle off. You get the starting spot because you win not because a coach "thinks" you should. The only ranking in wrestling that works for me is who beat who the last time they walked out on the mat.
 
These threads always puzzle me. Why do people get all worked up over someone's opinion, especially when the main reason for them putting that opinion out there is to get clicks. These rankings mean exactly bupkus, which is a technical term for NOTHING. :D

I dont think anyone is worked up. I know I am not at all ... just taking part in an off season wrestling season discussion

why does discussion and/or difference of opinion have to equate to being worked up?
 
To follow up on this, the following is a comparison between Zain and Kyle against top 10 opponents (at the time they wrestled):

Zain:

2 - fall
2 - dec
3 - TF
4 - TF
4 - TF
5 - dec

Kyle:

2 - dec
2 - dec
6 - MD
7 - dec
7 - dec
8 - MD

better quality and more bonus for Zain.
True dat...though Snyder was never close to losing.
 
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2017 NCAA FLO P4P Rankings Minus the Seniors..Any thoughts?

1. Kyle Snyder, tOSU
2. Zain Retherford, PSU
3. Jason Nolf, PSU
4. Bo Nickal, PSU
5. Isaiah Martinez, Illinois
6. Dean Heil, OSU
7. Vincenzo Joseph, PSU
8. Mark Hall, PSU
9. Nathan Tomasello, tOSU
10. Logan Massa, Michigan
My biggest beef is that Dean Heil is even on this list. That is all.
 
I have Nick Suriano well before Heil. Yes, yes... undefeated and all that included.
 
I dont think anyone is worked up. I know I am not at all ... just taking part in an off season wrestling season discussion

why does discussion and/or difference of opinion have to equate to being worked up?

Agree, have no problem with your opinions or FLO's opinions even if they may differ from my own in some areas. That is what debating a topic is all about.....differences of opinion based upon the facts.
 
... The reason I love wrestling is the wrestle off. You get the starting spot because you win not because a coach "thinks" you should ...
Not all coaches exclusively use the wrestle off. Doesn't Cael, for example, use Southern Scuffle placements and his own "thoughts" in addition to any wrestle offs? And didn't Verkleeren quit his team because his coach would not let him wrestle off? And didn't the father of Jim Wilson of Stanford raise a stink because the Stanford coach would not let Wilson wrestle off?
 
Flo was ranking wrestlers after nationals, not after the Scuffle. After nationals, Ruth was better than Dean. Joseph was clearly getting better as the season progressed and while he did have close matches against Lewis and Massa, I'm not sure many would have predicted a win for Joseph in those match ups. The match against Martinez simply high lighted the great progress he made as the season progressed. He was better than Martinez after nationals.

I cannot wait for his matches next year against both Imar and Massa. He made incredible progress but I think he is the most susceptible of the PSU national champs.
 
I dont think anyone is worked up. I know I am not at all ... just taking part in an off season wrestling season discussion

why does discussion and/or difference of opinion have to equate to being worked up?

I love that 5 of the top 8 are PSU...Just makes me smile. Also, I can easily see one more making the top ten before long. Although someone will need to lose. Hopefully Heil or IMAR
 
Not all coaches exclusively use the wrestle off. Doesn't Cael, for example, use Southern Scuffle placements and his own "thoughts" in addition to any wrestle offs? And didn't Verkleeren quit his team because his coach would not let him wrestle off? And didn't the father of Jim Wilson of Stanford raise a stink because the Stanford coach would not let Wilson wrestle off?
I started in 1977 and now my son does and I have never heard of anything but wrestle offs to include Mark Hall winning his. That having been said you probably have a point. ( not sarcastically) what is it?
 
I think IMar should be ahead of Joseph P4P. 2 titles vs. 1, he's beaten Joseph twice and has 2 career losses (Joseph had 4 last year).
 
If Zain wrestles a 189 lber with 30% body fat. Zain's pinning his azz
Didn't Zain pin former HWT Livingston 5x in a row in practice with the power half, so Livingston asked Zain to teach it to him?
 
I think IMar should be ahead of Joseph P4P. 2 titles vs. 1, he's beaten Joseph twice and has 2 career losses (Joseph had 4 last year).

i know this list excludes seniors ... but lets include them here for sake of argument

would you still rank Dean over Nickal?
 
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i know this list excludes seniors ... but lets include them here for sake of argument

would you still rank Dean over Nickal?

That's a good question, it would be really close, but I would probably lean Bo since Bo holds the sole win over Dean in NCAA competition. However, Dean's resume makes it tough, especially given how close that match was.
 
i know this list excludes seniors ... but lets include them here for sake of argument

would you still rank Dean over Nickal?
I think Nickal because they each have a loss; Nickal's arguably to a lesser opponent (Martin a champ at 174 but with numerous losses this year) but Bo beating Dean. Maybe Dean stays ahead on total body of work if Bo didn't otherwise also have a monster bonus year, pinning something like half the 184 podium.
 
I think IMar should be ahead of Joseph P4P. 2 titles vs. 1, he's beaten Joseph twice and has 2 career losses (Joseph had 4 last year).
So you would also be of the mindset that the 2016 Penn State football team should not have gone to the playoffs as their body of work didn't deserve it, even though at the end of the season, they (and I would include USC at this point), were playing as good as anybody in any conference. Unfortunately for football, a panel of 'experts' determines who is invited to the dance. In wrestling, your mat performance determines who gets invited to the dance. My sole point remains that at end of the season Cenzo was as good as anyone in his weight class and beat a two time national champion to win his first national championship. He therefore should be ranked, P4P, above anyone else in that weight class based on that performance. We tend to let body of work sometimes overshadow impressive performances which occur in the latter half/end of a season as a team and/or an individual matures and things click. When it counted the most, Cenzo was the best; determined on the mat where it should be determined and not by wrestling 'experts'.
 
i know this list excludes seniors ... but lets include them here for sake of argument

would you still rank Dean over Nickal?

Not a chance would I rank Dean over Nickal. I think Nickal would win a rematch 7or 8 out of 10 times.
 
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This kind of stuff is just so weird to me. Why are you taking it so personally that I feel this way regarding Vincenzo and IMar?

So you would also be of the mindset that the 2016 Penn State football team should not have gone to the playoffs as their body of work didn't deserve it, even though at the end of the season, they (and I would include USC at this point), were playing as good as anybody in any conference. Unfortunately for football, a panel of 'experts' determines who is invited to the dance.

This is nothing like the football team at all. P4P rankings don't exist in football.

My sole point remains that at end of the season Cenzo was as good as anyone in his weight class and beat a two time national champion to win his first national championship.

He was, obviously, and he won the national championship. He should be the number 1 ranked wrestler in his class (and is). That doesn't mean he should be number 1 pound-for-pound over all of them regardless of circumstance.

We tend to let body of work sometimes overshadow impressive performances which occur in the latter half/end of a season as a team and/or an individual matures and things click.

You see, I feel exactly the opposite. I think people tend to favor recency bias more than they favor overall resumes. Especially when doing a pound-for-pound rankings list, we must evaluate overall resume. We have to favor NCAA Tournament performance since it is the business end of the season, but we can't disregard prior performance either.

I don't begrudge someone who wants to put Vincenzo over IMar, I disagree with it. I think there's a good argument to make for Vincenzo (i.e. a Championship win and the most emphatic win over either of IMar's wins against him). However, I went with IMar's overall body of work, wins over Nolf, Joseph, Jordan, Massa, and many others, over Joseph's. If Joseph wins the title next year or beats IMar again in a regular season dual, then yea, I think Joseph will have every right to being ranked ahead of IMar.

Stop making it out like I'm somehow anti-PSU or anti-Joseph, I'm not.

So I have to ask, going into this season, should Myles Martin have been ahead of Bo Nickal in P4P just because he beat him in the title match? Because I thought that was ridiculous since Bo was 3-1 against him going into the season.

When it counted the most, Cenzo was the best; determined on the mat where it should be determined and not by wrestling 'experts'.

This is the first time I've been called an expert in wrestling, and I thank you.
 
Re: the Imar/Joseph conversation can understand why folks would go with either. I personally think Joseph earned a higher ranking based on his improvement (which was awesome this year) but the situation is similar to MyMar and Nickal last year. Very close matches and the winner hit one big move to seal it, similar seasons, idk how many people (esp. PSU fans) would've went MyMar over Nickal last year in the P4P department at the end though. I sure wouldn't have. Tough call
 
This kind of stuff is just so weird to me. Why are you taking it so personally that I feel this way regarding Vincenzo and IMar?


This is nothing like the football team at all. P4P rankings don't exist in football.



He was, obviously, and he won the national championship. He should be the number 1 ranked wrestler in his class (and is). That doesn't mean he should be number 1 pound-for-pound over all of them regardless of circumstance.



You see, I feel exactly the opposite. I think people tend to favor recency bias more than they favor overall resumes. Especially when doing a pound-for-pound rankings list, we must evaluate overall resume. We have to favor NCAA Tournament performance since it is the business end of the season, but we can't disregard prior performance either.

I don't begrudge someone who wants to put Vincenzo over IMar, I disagree with it. I think there's a good argument to make for Vincenzo (i.e. a Championship win and the most emphatic win over either of IMar's wins against him). However, I went with IMar's overall body of work, wins over Nolf, Joseph, Jordan, Massa, and many others, over Joseph's. If Joseph wins the title next year or beats IMar again in a regular season dual, then yea, I think Joseph will have every right to being ranked ahead of IMar.

Stop making it out like I'm somehow anti-PSU or anti-Joseph, I'm not.

So I have to ask, going into this season, should Myles Martin have been ahead of Bo Nickal in P4P just because he beat him in the title match? Because I thought that was ridiculous since Bo was 3-1 against him going into the season.



This is the first time I've been called an expert in wrestling, and I thank you.
This kind of stuff is just so weird to me. Why are you taking it so personally that I feel this way regarding Vincenzo and IMar?



This is nothing like the football team at all. P4P rankings don't exist in football.



He was, obviously, and he won the national championship. He should be the number 1 ranked wrestler in his class (and is). That doesn't mean he should be number 1 pound-for-pound over all of them regardless of circumstance.



You see, I feel exactly the opposite. I think people tend to favor recency bias more than they favor overall resumes. Especially when doing a pound-for-pound rankings list, we must evaluate overall resume. We have to favor NCAA Tournament performance since it is the business end of the season, but we can't disregard prior performance either.

I don't begrudge someone who wants to put Vincenzo over IMar, I disagree with it. I think there's a good argument to make for Vincenzo (i.e. a Championship win and the most emphatic win over either of IMar's wins against him). However, I went with IMar's overall body of work, wins over Nolf, Joseph, Jordan, Massa, and many others, over Joseph's. If Joseph wins the title next year or beats IMar again in a regular season dual, then yea, I think Joseph will have every right to being ranked ahead of IMar.

Stop making it out like I'm somehow anti-PSU or anti-Joseph, I'm not.

So I have to ask, going into this season, should Myles Martin have been ahead of Bo Nickal in P4P just because he beat him in the title match? Because I thought that was ridiculous since Bo was 3-1 against him going into the season.



This is the first time I've been called an expert in wrestling, and I thank you.
Nothing personal on my part, just trying to make a point. We disagree and that is okay. BTW the wrestling 'experts' I referenced created the list which kicked off all this discussion.
 
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This kind of stuff is just so weird to me. Why are you taking it so personally that I feel this way regarding Vincenzo and IMar?


This is nothing like the football team at all. P4P rankings don't exist in football.



He was, obviously, and he won the national championship. He should be the number 1 ranked wrestler in his class (and is). That doesn't mean he should be number 1 pound-for-pound over all of them regardless of circumstance.



You see, I feel exactly the opposite. I think people tend to favor recency bias more than they favor overall resumes. Especially when doing a pound-for-pound rankings list, we must evaluate overall resume. We have to favor NCAA Tournament performance since it is the business end of the season, but we can't disregard prior performance either.

I don't begrudge someone who wants to put Vincenzo over IMar, I disagree with it. I think there's a good argument to make for Vincenzo (i.e. a Championship win and the most emphatic win over either of IMar's wins against him). However, I went with IMar's overall body of work, wins over Nolf, Joseph, Jordan, Massa, and many others, over Joseph's. If Joseph wins the title next year or beats IMar again in a regular season dual, then yea, I think Joseph will have every right to being ranked ahead of IMar.

Stop making it out like I'm somehow anti-PSU or anti-Joseph, I'm not.

So I have to ask, going into this season, should Myles Martin have been ahead of Bo Nickal in P4P just because he beat him in the title match? Because I thought that was ridiculous since Bo was 3-1 against him going into the season.



This is the first time I've been called an expert in wrestling, and I thank you.
This kind of stuff is just so weird to me. Why are you taking it so personally that I feel this way regarding Vincenzo and IMar?



This is nothing like the football team at all. P4P rankings don't exist in football.



He was, obviously, and he won the national championship. He should be the number 1 ranked wrestler in his class (and is). That doesn't mean he should be number 1 pound-for-pound over all of them regardless of circumstance.



You see, I feel exactly the opposite. I think people tend to favor recency bias more than they favor overall resumes. Especially when doing a pound-for-pound rankings list, we must evaluate overall resume. We have to favor NCAA Tournament performance since it is the business end of the season, but we can't disregard prior performance either.

I don't begrudge someone who wants to put Vincenzo over IMar, I disagree with it. I think there's a good argument to make for Vincenzo (i.e. a Championship win and the most emphatic win over either of IMar's wins against him). However, I went with IMar's overall body of work, wins over Nolf, Joseph, Jordan, Massa, and many others, over Joseph's. If Joseph wins the title next year or beats IMar again in a regular season dual, then yea, I think Joseph will have every right to being ranked ahead of IMar.

Stop making it out like I'm somehow anti-PSU or anti-Joseph, I'm not.

So I have to ask, going into this season, should Myles Martin have been ahead of Bo Nickal in P4P just because he beat him in the title match? Because I thought that was ridiculous since Bo was 3-1 against him going into the season.



This is the first time I've been called an expert in wrestling, and I thank you.
Nothing personal on my part, just trying to make a point. We disagree and that is okay. BTW the wrestling 'experts' I referenced created the list which kicked off all
this discussion.
Sounds personal to me.
 
We also get giddy with our rankings and wins perhaps forget some important things.

Imar is damn good. It's almost as if the finals is an indicator of what will happen going forward. What I know is he has only lost twice. There's a reasonable chance this tilts back in his favor as he goes to work and watch film.

Valencia v Hall will happen again and....each match is going to look like the last one....close and unpredictable in the outcome. I feel like Zahid is the lost guy in this conversation, lost only due to a very tight difficult loss to Mark.
 
We also get giddy with our rankings and wins perhaps forget some important things.

Imar is damn good. It's almost as if the finals is an indicator of what will happen going forward. What I know is he has only lost twice. There's a reasonable chance this tilts back in his favor as he goes to work and watch film.

Valencia v Hall will happen again and....each match is going to look like the last one....close and unpredictable in the outcome. I feel like Zahid is the lost guy in this conversation, lost only due to a very tight difficult loss to Mark.

i think Hall will face a Valencia again, but Im not sure it will be Zahid. I wouldnt be shocked to see him up at 184 next year, and Anthony at 174...
 
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