If you clicked on this thread expecting the most knowledgeable, comprehensive, insightful, and accurate 2018 NCAA Wrestling Championship preview on the whole wide interwebs…sorry…that would be RoarLions1; next door on your left. The truth is…I have no idea what’s going to happen this weekend. I’m lucky I can get my shoes on the right feet. But, as long as you’re here….
This will be the third year I have infected this board with a tournament preview. In 2016, we had tennis star Caroline Wozniacki in body paint. In 2017, it was wrestling referee Mike Hagerty in a Tijuana donkey show. I’d call that “trending downward.” In the spirit of reversing that trend, I’ll start by congratulating Caroline on winning her first major championship…the 2018 Australian Open! And in the spirit of fairness, I’ll confess that I have been unable to locate a single credible witness who could confirm that it was actually a donkey…and not a burro…consorting with Mike on that magical Saturday night. Oh, well…I tried. Without further ado….On with the preview! (As always, any known or suspected injuries are addressed, in true journalistic fashion, with reckless speculation.)
125
With all the focus on the Big Ten Big Three, does it feel to you that for an undefeated, top-seeded returning champion, Cruz (LEH) is not getting any love here? I get it, I guess…but I think the guy is legit. Plus, we’ve all heard the questions about each of the leading contenders: 1. Can Tomasello (tOSU) hold 125 and maintain full effectiveness long enough to make it to Saturday night? The “Mini-taur” wrestled only eight matches during the regular season (reckless speculation: doughnut fatigue; nagging nuptial impingement); 2. Can Lee (IOWA) match the best guys from neutral, and win with his superior mat skills? (I’m not on the “suspect gas tank” bandwagon.); 3. Is Suriano (RUT) at or near 100% physically? If so, I like him for the finals. If not…what? #6 maybe? DNP? He missed several late season matches and MFF’ed out of the Big Ten tournament due to mysterious (even by wrestling standards) “issues”: (reckless speculation: kookaburra flu; Mid-Atlantic diphthong inflection). Is he ready for the three-day grind? Tough for me to sort it all out, so I dug deeper, taking an extra look at some of the top contenders against a common opponent. It’s a given that non-qualifier Kuhn (PSU) beats Nico in the room. But, sources far more reliable than mainstream news media (which might include anyone from Tommy Flanagan (Jon Lovitz’s SNL “Yeah…that’s the ticket!” character) to some guy in a hurry to catch a bus trying to sell you a watch) have also whispered that Tomasello beats Nico at weddings, Lee beats Nico in bars (arm bars), Rios (OREST) beats Nico at dances, and Suriano beats Nico on cruiseliners. I have no doubt that Cruz beats him somewhere too. While wearing brown…which might be the greatest feat of all. So…what to make of it all? Without much conviction, I’ll say it comes down to the winner of the Tomasello/Lee semifinal…first takedown wins. “The Wedding Planter” is the call.
Prediction: 1. Tomasello (tOSU); 2. Cruz (LEH); 3. Lee (IOWA); 4. Piccininni (OKST); 5. Rios (OREST); 6.Suriano (RUT); 7. Fausz (NCST); 8. Rivera (NW).
“Don’t miss” match: Tomasello v. Lee possible semi-final
Interesting stat: National Championships: The field-2; Nico-1.
133
My favorite move of the year, by any wrestler: Returning runnerup and top seed Gross (SDSU) took an “L” (his only one of the season), after taking an “L” of a risk to his spotless season record: bumping up to 141 to challenge #1-ranked Meredith (WYO) in their dual meet in January. Gross dropped a 4-2 decision, but…Bravo, Seth! Kudos also to Coach Chris Bono, who was rewarded with a 20-18 team victory, as a cosmic reward for making it happen. #2 is Micic (MICH), who has been on a roll since the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational at the beginning of December, winning 16 a row coming into the tournament. The steady Pletcher (tOSU), the dangerous Brock (OKST), the…umm…earnest (?) Erneste (MIZZ), and the London (sorry…couldn’t think of anything else) Bridges (WYO) also look to be factors here. DeSanto (DREX) is the squirrel up the pantleg of this weight class: As in: “Not my pantleg, thanks…but it sure is fun watching it happen to you!” The freshman, who makes the Tasmanian devil look like a three-toed sloth, has lost only one full match since Mueller (UVA) pitched a pair of shutouts at him at the Cliff Keen. I’ll speculate that the winner comes from among Gross, Micic, and Brock, who put up a solid fight in an 8-5 loss to Gross in the Big 12 tournament finals.
Prediction: 1. Gross (SDSU); 2. Micic (MICH); 3. Brock (OKST); 4. Erneste (MIZZ); 5. Pletcher (tOSU); 6. DeSanto (DREX); 7. Bridges (WYO); 8. Parker (LEH).
“Don’t miss” match: DeSanto v. Terao (AMER), possible blood round
Interesting stat: Zero: the precise level of enthusiasm displayed by last year’s 133-pound champion Cory Clark (IOWA) during his “spontaneous” post-match Hamster toss. To his everlasting credit.
141
Disclaimer: It’s clear I don’t know Jack about this weight class, having predicted him (Kevin Jack (NCST)) to win the thing two years ago. So last year, I atoned for the error of my ways, correctly tabbing returning champion #6 Heil (OKST), and promising never to doubt him again. Then I muttered something about a Tijuana donkey show, and his one day becoming President (Heil, not the donkey). And so he did. (Win the tournament, not become President. Or a donkey.) Well, Heil came back to earth a bit this year, a victim of altitude (road loss to #1 seed Meredith (WYO), a few too many close calls to dodge (Jack, Parker (IAST), Meredith again in the Big 12 final), and the new “Heil Rule” (“From now on, when you’re pinned….you’re really pinned. No, really.” (Eierman (MIZZ))). So. Dare I doubt? The weight class sure seems wide open: Meredith took one-point decisions over Heil (twice), Eierman, and Jack, but lost to Diakhomihalis (COR). Eierman pinned Heil and beat Diakomihalis, but lost to Meredith. Zacherl (CLAR) was undefeated until the EWL tournament final. In addition to the Meredith victory, Diakomihalis also has wins over Alber (UNI; twice) and Lee. Sure can’t count him out. Though Meredith is a slight favorite, with Eierman right on his shoulder, I’m having a hard time getting away from McKenna (tOSU) here as I try to come up with a winner; he cruised to the Big Ten tournament championship with a fall and three shutouts. But…let’s see….Cleveland is just 26.8 miles from Heil’s hometown of Brunswick, OH…the altitude is more to his liking (elevation above sea level: Brunswick, OH-1,168 feet; Stillwater, OK-984 feet; Storey Gym, Cheyenne, WY-6,062 feet; Cleveland, OH-571 feet)…I did make a vow, after all…and it’s not like the main challengers didn’t live on the edge once in awhile themselves. Here goes nothing…
Prediction: 1. McKenna (tOSU); 2. Diakomihalis (COR); 3.Eierman (MIZZ); 4. Meredith (WYO); 5. Heil (OKST); 6. Jack (NCST); 7. Lee (PSU); 8. Smith (CMU).
“Don’t miss” match: Zacherl v. Red (NEB) first round
Interesting stat: “Yanni Diakomihalis” is an anagram for “I said: ‘Yo’ mama is a slinky!’" Give or take a few punctuation marks. If you drink enough.
149
We’ve seen several interesting strategies employed in attempts to derail the Zain Train this year, as Retherford (PSU) seeks his third straight title. Amine (MICH) tried the “slap…slap…slap…slap” approach. In response, Zain inflicted six minutes and 30 seconds of the kind of punishment usually reserved for convicted Singaporean vandals, before hot gluing Amine’s shoulder blades to the mat. DeLuca (RUT) went with “Jab…jab…hook. Jab…jab…HOOK”…with the last blow delivered so quickly after the referee’s absolutely final, double-dog dare, “Quit it! I’m not kidding!” warning, it could only have been interpreted as an earnest plea for a quick and painless DQ. Hayes (tOSU) brazenly tried actual wrestling, securing two quick takedowns in a dual meet. His seemingly insurmountable :::cough::: 4-1 lead took a sudden, ugly turn onto 20-4 Tech Fall Parkway. “Slower Traffic….Keep Right.” Zain’s memory persisted through a 10-0 whitewash of Hayes in the Big Ten tournament…that’s 29 consecutive points. And counting. I guess what I’m saying is….Don’t piss this guy off! Hey, Amine: A smile and a hug can go a long way. DeLuca: Instead of bringing the “thunder”…this time, try a “pan of brownies”. Hayes: Uhh…Sorry. Got nothing for ya. Hey, I understand…It’s wrestling. Anything can happen. One wrong move, a slap of the mat, and it’s over. Some of the top challengers… Leeth (MIZZ), Heilmann (UNC), Oliver (CMU), Lewallen (OKST), Thomsen (UNI), and Kolodzik (PRIN))… haven’t gotten their shots yet this season. Top threat, #2 Sorenson (IOWA) took Retherford to OT in a dual meet last year, and lost 6-2 and 2-0 (Big Ten finals) to him this year. Otherwise…all bonus point wins for Zain in 2017-18. So, yes…Anything can happen. But that ain’t the way to bet.
Prediction: 1. Retherford (PSU); 2. Sorenson (IOWA); 3. Deakin (NW); 4. Leeth (MIZZ); 5. Hayes (tOSU); 6. Kolodzik (PRIN); 7. Tsirtsis (ASU); 8. Oliver (CMU).
“Don’t miss” match: Retherford v. Hayes (because it sounds so presidential) possible semifinal
Interesting stat: Six, representing both: 1) Brandon Sorenson’s career losses to Zain Retherford (record vs. Retherford: 0-6; record vs. “not Retherford”: 121-9); and 2) the number of years Brandon’s parents should have waited to have kids; there might have been a multiple-time NCAA champion in the family.
157
Seriously…is there anyone you’d rather send out to win a fight on one leg than Jason Nolf (PSU)? OK…I’ll spot you Daniel LaRusso…but even then, Nolf/Cael Sanderson > LaRusso/Mr. Miyagi, right? If he’s at or near 100%, it’s defending champ Nolf, period. But after he sustained a late season injury (reckless speculation: “What knee?”), a door appears to be ajar. Conversely, a jar does not appear to be a door. (Heffernan (CMU) is no first round picnic, by the way.) The contenders: #1 seed Hidlay (NCST) is undefeated. Last year’s runnerup Lavallee (MIZZ) has lost only to Hidlay, SV-1, 3-1. Kemerer (IOWA) was unbeaten until he was stunned by Jordan (tOSU) in the Big Ten semifinals. Kemerer hasn’t looked 100% to me over his last several matches either (not reckless speculation…but a cold hard fact: I don’t know my butt from a raging spladle.). Possible Nolf/Kemerer quarterfinal knocks one of maybe the best two guys in this weight class out of the chase early. Also lurking are Shields (ASU) (29-2) and Pantaleo, who fought a healthy Nolf to a 6-4 decision in a dual meet, and knocked off Jordan in the Big 10 finals. Team race could be decided right here, with a big possible PSU/tOSU swing. Hard for me to see anyone else cracking this group to take the title. Smart money might be on Hidlay or Pantaleo, but… Big Ten tournament Nolf (pretty darn good) + two weeks of healing = Nolf finds a way.
Prediction: 1.Nolf (PSU); 2. Hidlay (NCST); 3.Lavallee (MIZZ); 4. Kemerer (IOWA); 5. Pantaleo (MICH); 6. Shields (ASU); 7. Jordan (tOSU); 8. Colgan (WYO).
“Don’t miss” match: Kemerer v. Jordan possible consolation semifinal
Interesting stat: 92%, representing the probability that tOSU coach Tom Ryan successfully defends his championship at next year’s Day Toner 500.
165
Want an indication of how tough the Big Ten tournament is? Stud redshirt freshman Marinelli (IOWA) came into the tournament with no losses (ranked #2 in the country, with a win over returning NC Joseph(PSU))…and left with three, finishing sixth in the tournament. Without wrestling either of the two finalists. Ouch. Thanks for playing. Still, it could have been worse. He held on to a 5 seed for nationals. Drop any lower, and you get a QF match with #3 Joseph, undefeated (31-0) #2 McFadden (VT), or undefeated (14-0) #1 Martinez (ILL), who is shooting for his third national championship in four years. Martinez has lost twice in his career; two years ago to Nolf in a dual meet, and last year to Joseph in the NCAA finals. Lifetime? 2-1 vs. Nolf; 3-1 vs. Joseph. The guy is good…and he’ll need to be. Possible tricky QF with the Rogers (OKST)-Marsteller (LHU) winner, followed by Marinelli or Walsh (RID), whose avenged his only loss (to Marsteller) in the EWL finals. Then there’s Massa (MICH), who finished third last year. Due to injury (reckless speculation: sprained uncle; which runs in the family…well, limps in the family), Massa hasn’t been himself this year (making it difficult to cash a check, among other things), but looked steadily better toward the end of the regular season. He put together a nice Big Ten tournament (beating Marinelli twice) and looks ready to challenge anyone in the field. Lewis (RUT) also deserves mention. (Hey, if I don’t, he will, right?) His four losses this year (to Marinelli, twice, Joseph, and Martinez) were by a total of seven points, and his third place finish in the Big Ten tournament included wins over Marinelli and Vick. Tough, tough weight class.
Prediction: 1. Martinez (ILL); 2. Joseph (PSU); 3. Marinelli (IOWA); 4. Marsteller (LHU); 5. McFadden (VT); 6. Massa (MICH); 7. Lewis (RUT); 8. Walsh (RID).
“Don’t miss” match: Marsteller v.Rogers possible R16
Interesting stat: 14, representing the number of nearfall points given up by Vincenzo Joseph in his last six matches. Michelangelo spent less time on his back in the Sistine Chapel. (Though both did solid work from that position.)
174
Defending champion Hall (PSU) returns, sporting an unblemished 28-0 record. Still, the equally unbeaten (27-0) Valencia (ASU) drew the #1 seed. He lost to Hall in the NCAA semifinals last year on a technical violation (a nasty “Wet Willie”), but retaliated with a 3-2 decision over Hall in the 2017 NWCA All-Star Classic. Though the NWCA match did not count toward the competitors’ 2017-18 records or for NCAA seeding purposes :::wink:::, that bell still rang. Both have beaten most of the other top contenders. Valencia’s season included impressive wins over #4 Kutler (LEH), #5 Amine (MICH), #6 Jordan (tOSU, twice), and #7 Lujan (UNI, twice). Hall has two wins over Kutler, two over Amine, and one each over Jordan and #8 Bernstein (NAVY); #3 Lewis (MIZZ) quietly checks in with an unblemished record himself, returning after a sixth place finish in 2017, when he fell to eventual 165 pound champion Joseph 6-5 on a late takedown in the championship quarterfinals. Lewis, one hard riding son-of-a-gun, wrestled only Lujan (13-10 win) among the top contenders this year. If you carried the math down from above, you already know that Kutler, Amine, and Jordan are a combined 0-9 against Valencia and Hall this season. (If your first reaction to the previous sentence was “I was told there would be no math,” there is little hope for you. Please skip ahead to 184. Or, better yet, to March 18.) Amine has knocked off Jordan twice in the very recent past, and his two losses to Hall were by a point apiece. Jordan is still a tough out and a legitimate contender, and everyone else in the field would probably rather see Lewis on the other side of the bracket. I’ll go with a shaky vote for Valencia over Hall in the finals, in one of the best matches of the evening.
Prediction: 1. Valencia (ASU); 2. Hall (PSU); 3. Lewis (MIZZ); 4. Jordan (tOSU); 5. Kutler (LEH); 6. Amine (MICH); 7. Lujan (UNI); 8. Kocer (SDSU).
“Don’t miss” match: Lewis v. Jordan possible quarterfinal
Interesting stat: 175, the average weight of a mountain sheep in pounds. This probably explains why we have never seen a sheared mountain sheep outside of the 174 pound weight class at an NCAA tournament.
184
Returning champion Nickal (PSU) is the clear favorite to defend. Top challenger Martin (tOSU), who beat Nickal for the 174 pound title two years ago, was front and center in the two most important seconds of the dual meet season: 1) the last second of the Penn State match, when Nickal got a two count for the near fall and a bonus point that represented the margin of victory in PSU’s 19-18 dual meet win; and 2) the last second of the Michigan match, a heartbeat before #5 Abounader (MICH) was able to secure a potentially OT-producing takedown, as the Buckeyes held on to win the dual 18-15. Abounader (MICH) might tell you he’s the * on Nickal’s 27-0* record (I’m no expert…but I’ve seen that called a takedown before.), and is a factor here, along with Preisch (LEH), who missed some time this season (reckless speculation: severely twisted sister), and lost a tight 3-2 decision to Nickal in a dual meet. Renda (NCST) and Zavatsky (VT) from the ACC are also tough outs. 184 Conclusion: Gotta favor the title holder here. Don’t know where that whole “noodle arms” thing came from (oh, wait….yes, I do remember!); they were strong enough to turn Martin at the end of that seven-minute dual match. And, in a grueling three-day tournament, quick pins (which Nickal has been known to produce), are useful time- and energy-savers. Career-wise, Martin has an NCAA title and two Nickal scalps in his pocket. Not bad. Nickal has an NCAA title and six Martin scalps in his. Better. Dynamic, yet solid. High wrestling IQ. Nickal, FTW.
Prediction: 1. Nickal (PSU); 2.Martin (tOSU) ; 3. Preisch (LEH); 4. Renda (NCST); 5. Abounader (MICH); 6. Zavatsky (VT); 7. Foster (UNI); 8. Carr (UTC).
“Don’t miss” match: Venz (NEB) v. Parker (ILL) possible R16 (Round 3 between these two. First two were dynamite.)
Interesting stat: IV. First Downey generation to snag an NCAA wrestling title. Book it.
197
Tough weight class for me to figure, and I had to study a lot of video before making my picks. Valuable research though: It cracked me up when the Saint Bernard got stuck in the cat door, and even though I know what’s going to happen when that guy steps on the rake, I laugh every single time! Oh…and Wozniacki was a real trooper in that photo shoot. Then there’s the wrestling. Moore (tOSU, 3rd in 2017) held the #1 ranking for most of the regular season before fading, dropping decisions to Cassar (PSU) and Machiavello (NCST) in the final weeks, leaving no clear favorite. Haught (VT, 4th in 2017) has wins over Macchiavello and Boykin (UTC), but got stuck by Miklus (MIZZ) and Moore. Darmstadt (COR) built an impressive resumé, taking down Miklus (MD 9-0) and Rasheed (PSU), and avenged his only loss (to Mattiace (PENN)). Speaking of Miklus…despite an occasional head-scratcher, he’s in the mix too….right? Rasheed’s best win might have come against Cassar in the PSU room, earning the right to represent the team in the post-season. He rocked a mean cradle on the way to a Southern Scuffle title and 12 pins for the year, before falling to Moore in the Big Ten tournament final. Based on my extensive research…I’ll say the winner here comes from among Moore, Haught, and Darmstadt. Conclusions: 1. Darmstadt to win; 2. Don’t step on a rake; 3. You should consider becoming a painter.
Prediction: 1. Darmstadt (COR); 2. Moore (tOSU); 3. Haught (VT); 4. Macchiavello (NCST); 5. Miklus (MIZZ); 6. Rasheed (PSU); 7. Weigel (OKST); 8. Mattiace (PENN).
“Don’t miss” match: Haught v. Miklus possible quarterfinal
Interesting stats: 12 feet, 6 inches: Approximate wingspan of Shakur Rasheed; 12 feet, 7 inches +: Optimum distance to maintain between one’s nose and one’s kneecaps when wrestling Shakur Rasheed.
285
Well…this sure got interesting, didn’t it? The college wrestling world got drenched with a bucketful of new perspective with Coon’s (MICH) stunning (well, maybe not all that stunning in retrospect) dual meet win over multiple NCAA, world, Olympic, Yarygin, and intergalactic champion Snyder (tOSU), in one of the best 3-1 matches you’ll ever see. And an absolutely a fair result it was. Just as was the Big Ten tournament final, when Snyder returned the favor, by the same count, in OT. If nothing else, the 285-pound championship is no longer the foregone conclusion it was thought to be for most of the 2017-2018 season. Hard…no, make that impossible…to imagine anything but a Snyder-Coon final here, with a significant dropoff to the bagful of Nevills (PSU), Kasper (DUKE), Stoll (IOWA), Dhesi (OREST), Butler (STAN), Hall (ASU), and White (OKST) fighting for a lower spot on the podium. Dhesi, Nevills, and Kasper appear to be in the best form of that group coming into the tournament, but barring injury to Snyder or Coon or an unexpected locust plague, they’re all battling for third place. Final college match…team championship possibly in play…rubber match for all-time bragging rights…I have to believe Snyder finds a way to take this.
Prediction: 1. Snyder (tOSU); 2. Coon (MICH); 3. Dhesi (OREST); 4. Nevills (PSU); 5. Kasper (DUK); 6. Stoll (IOWA); 7. Hughes (HOF); 8. Butler (STAN).
“Don’t miss” match: Snyder v. Coon final (Sorry. I think this is the only correct answer.)
Interesting stats: Two miles. Four shoes. I had intended to wrap this thing up with a pre-emptive shot at the inevitable inane blatherings of ESPN reporters Quint Kessenich and Billy Baldwin….but I’ll paraphrase some sage advice once offered by one of my heroes, comic genius/philosopher Steve Martin: “Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, when you do criticize him, you’ve got a one-mile head start…and you’ve got his shoes.” Seems only fair. I’ll see what I can do.
Now…I’ll apologize in advance for the team standings, and refer you back to the first paragraph: “The truth is…I have no idea what’s going to happen this weekend.” After I completed championship and consolation brackets for all ten weight classes, then counted up on fingers and toes, here was the result:
Projected Team Standings:
1. tOSU 150.0
2. Penn State 138.5
3. Missouri 82.5
4. Michigan 79.0
5. NC State 66.0
6. Iowa 64.5
7. Oklahoma State 55.0
8. Lehigh 54.0
9. (tie) Cornell 45.5
Virginia Tech 45.5
Honestly, it feels like I’m wrong, but I wasn’t going to go back and redo a weight class or two to make the final numbers fit a preferred result. I’ll just have to be wrong. (Happily so, I might add.) I know I didn’t pick enough upsets; I never do. I think several key tossup matches might tell the tale, and I seemed to come down on the tOSU side of most of them (Big Ten tournament recency bias?):
Four matches. tOSU favored in one, underdog in one…two tossups. Called them all for tOSU. Four-match parlay pays off pretty good in Vegas, doesn’t it? Ignoring any other upsets or the 20-30% of the other matches I’ll screw up….well, this result is well within the margin of error. Make that “errors.” FWIW…if I had to bet a dollar, I’d bet it on PSU. There. Now I feel better.
Lastly…before you dismiss these predictions as the rantings of a senile old man (which, of course, they are) and Tom drops the ban hammer on me for this blasphemous piece of crap....errr... I mean "work", you should consider this passage, taken word-for-word from last year’s preview:
“Pletcher (tOSU) and Carton (IOWA) could meet early on the backside if seeds hold.”
Oh, sure…anyone could have come up with that…but remember, I was the only prognosticator to stick a neck out and accurately forecast that the match would be held on Mat #....
Oops…willya look at the time! Sorry…gotta run…I’m late for that appointment with my probation officer!
If all goes well with that, I’ll check back in after the tournament.
If not…please send a pan of brownies.
Good luck and good health to all competitors!
SR/BHF
This will be the third year I have infected this board with a tournament preview. In 2016, we had tennis star Caroline Wozniacki in body paint. In 2017, it was wrestling referee Mike Hagerty in a Tijuana donkey show. I’d call that “trending downward.” In the spirit of reversing that trend, I’ll start by congratulating Caroline on winning her first major championship…the 2018 Australian Open! And in the spirit of fairness, I’ll confess that I have been unable to locate a single credible witness who could confirm that it was actually a donkey…and not a burro…consorting with Mike on that magical Saturday night. Oh, well…I tried. Without further ado….On with the preview! (As always, any known or suspected injuries are addressed, in true journalistic fashion, with reckless speculation.)
125
With all the focus on the Big Ten Big Three, does it feel to you that for an undefeated, top-seeded returning champion, Cruz (LEH) is not getting any love here? I get it, I guess…but I think the guy is legit. Plus, we’ve all heard the questions about each of the leading contenders: 1. Can Tomasello (tOSU) hold 125 and maintain full effectiveness long enough to make it to Saturday night? The “Mini-taur” wrestled only eight matches during the regular season (reckless speculation: doughnut fatigue; nagging nuptial impingement); 2. Can Lee (IOWA) match the best guys from neutral, and win with his superior mat skills? (I’m not on the “suspect gas tank” bandwagon.); 3. Is Suriano (RUT) at or near 100% physically? If so, I like him for the finals. If not…what? #6 maybe? DNP? He missed several late season matches and MFF’ed out of the Big Ten tournament due to mysterious (even by wrestling standards) “issues”: (reckless speculation: kookaburra flu; Mid-Atlantic diphthong inflection). Is he ready for the three-day grind? Tough for me to sort it all out, so I dug deeper, taking an extra look at some of the top contenders against a common opponent. It’s a given that non-qualifier Kuhn (PSU) beats Nico in the room. But, sources far more reliable than mainstream news media (which might include anyone from Tommy Flanagan (Jon Lovitz’s SNL “Yeah…that’s the ticket!” character) to some guy in a hurry to catch a bus trying to sell you a watch) have also whispered that Tomasello beats Nico at weddings, Lee beats Nico in bars (arm bars), Rios (OREST) beats Nico at dances, and Suriano beats Nico on cruiseliners. I have no doubt that Cruz beats him somewhere too. While wearing brown…which might be the greatest feat of all. So…what to make of it all? Without much conviction, I’ll say it comes down to the winner of the Tomasello/Lee semifinal…first takedown wins. “The Wedding Planter” is the call.
Prediction: 1. Tomasello (tOSU); 2. Cruz (LEH); 3. Lee (IOWA); 4. Piccininni (OKST); 5. Rios (OREST); 6.Suriano (RUT); 7. Fausz (NCST); 8. Rivera (NW).
“Don’t miss” match: Tomasello v. Lee possible semi-final
Interesting stat: National Championships: The field-2; Nico-1.
133
My favorite move of the year, by any wrestler: Returning runnerup and top seed Gross (SDSU) took an “L” (his only one of the season), after taking an “L” of a risk to his spotless season record: bumping up to 141 to challenge #1-ranked Meredith (WYO) in their dual meet in January. Gross dropped a 4-2 decision, but…Bravo, Seth! Kudos also to Coach Chris Bono, who was rewarded with a 20-18 team victory, as a cosmic reward for making it happen. #2 is Micic (MICH), who has been on a roll since the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational at the beginning of December, winning 16 a row coming into the tournament. The steady Pletcher (tOSU), the dangerous Brock (OKST), the…umm…earnest (?) Erneste (MIZZ), and the London (sorry…couldn’t think of anything else) Bridges (WYO) also look to be factors here. DeSanto (DREX) is the squirrel up the pantleg of this weight class: As in: “Not my pantleg, thanks…but it sure is fun watching it happen to you!” The freshman, who makes the Tasmanian devil look like a three-toed sloth, has lost only one full match since Mueller (UVA) pitched a pair of shutouts at him at the Cliff Keen. I’ll speculate that the winner comes from among Gross, Micic, and Brock, who put up a solid fight in an 8-5 loss to Gross in the Big 12 tournament finals.
Prediction: 1. Gross (SDSU); 2. Micic (MICH); 3. Brock (OKST); 4. Erneste (MIZZ); 5. Pletcher (tOSU); 6. DeSanto (DREX); 7. Bridges (WYO); 8. Parker (LEH).
“Don’t miss” match: DeSanto v. Terao (AMER), possible blood round
Interesting stat: Zero: the precise level of enthusiasm displayed by last year’s 133-pound champion Cory Clark (IOWA) during his “spontaneous” post-match Hamster toss. To his everlasting credit.
141
Disclaimer: It’s clear I don’t know Jack about this weight class, having predicted him (Kevin Jack (NCST)) to win the thing two years ago. So last year, I atoned for the error of my ways, correctly tabbing returning champion #6 Heil (OKST), and promising never to doubt him again. Then I muttered something about a Tijuana donkey show, and his one day becoming President (Heil, not the donkey). And so he did. (Win the tournament, not become President. Or a donkey.) Well, Heil came back to earth a bit this year, a victim of altitude (road loss to #1 seed Meredith (WYO), a few too many close calls to dodge (Jack, Parker (IAST), Meredith again in the Big 12 final), and the new “Heil Rule” (“From now on, when you’re pinned….you’re really pinned. No, really.” (Eierman (MIZZ))). So. Dare I doubt? The weight class sure seems wide open: Meredith took one-point decisions over Heil (twice), Eierman, and Jack, but lost to Diakhomihalis (COR). Eierman pinned Heil and beat Diakomihalis, but lost to Meredith. Zacherl (CLAR) was undefeated until the EWL tournament final. In addition to the Meredith victory, Diakomihalis also has wins over Alber (UNI; twice) and Lee. Sure can’t count him out. Though Meredith is a slight favorite, with Eierman right on his shoulder, I’m having a hard time getting away from McKenna (tOSU) here as I try to come up with a winner; he cruised to the Big Ten tournament championship with a fall and three shutouts. But…let’s see….Cleveland is just 26.8 miles from Heil’s hometown of Brunswick, OH…the altitude is more to his liking (elevation above sea level: Brunswick, OH-1,168 feet; Stillwater, OK-984 feet; Storey Gym, Cheyenne, WY-6,062 feet; Cleveland, OH-571 feet)…I did make a vow, after all…and it’s not like the main challengers didn’t live on the edge once in awhile themselves. Here goes nothing…
Prediction: 1. McKenna (tOSU); 2. Diakomihalis (COR); 3.Eierman (MIZZ); 4. Meredith (WYO); 5. Heil (OKST); 6. Jack (NCST); 7. Lee (PSU); 8. Smith (CMU).
“Don’t miss” match: Zacherl v. Red (NEB) first round
Interesting stat: “Yanni Diakomihalis” is an anagram for “I said: ‘Yo’ mama is a slinky!’" Give or take a few punctuation marks. If you drink enough.
149
We’ve seen several interesting strategies employed in attempts to derail the Zain Train this year, as Retherford (PSU) seeks his third straight title. Amine (MICH) tried the “slap…slap…slap…slap” approach. In response, Zain inflicted six minutes and 30 seconds of the kind of punishment usually reserved for convicted Singaporean vandals, before hot gluing Amine’s shoulder blades to the mat. DeLuca (RUT) went with “Jab…jab…hook. Jab…jab…HOOK”…with the last blow delivered so quickly after the referee’s absolutely final, double-dog dare, “Quit it! I’m not kidding!” warning, it could only have been interpreted as an earnest plea for a quick and painless DQ. Hayes (tOSU) brazenly tried actual wrestling, securing two quick takedowns in a dual meet. His seemingly insurmountable :::cough::: 4-1 lead took a sudden, ugly turn onto 20-4 Tech Fall Parkway. “Slower Traffic….Keep Right.” Zain’s memory persisted through a 10-0 whitewash of Hayes in the Big Ten tournament…that’s 29 consecutive points. And counting. I guess what I’m saying is….Don’t piss this guy off! Hey, Amine: A smile and a hug can go a long way. DeLuca: Instead of bringing the “thunder”…this time, try a “pan of brownies”. Hayes: Uhh…Sorry. Got nothing for ya. Hey, I understand…It’s wrestling. Anything can happen. One wrong move, a slap of the mat, and it’s over. Some of the top challengers… Leeth (MIZZ), Heilmann (UNC), Oliver (CMU), Lewallen (OKST), Thomsen (UNI), and Kolodzik (PRIN))… haven’t gotten their shots yet this season. Top threat, #2 Sorenson (IOWA) took Retherford to OT in a dual meet last year, and lost 6-2 and 2-0 (Big Ten finals) to him this year. Otherwise…all bonus point wins for Zain in 2017-18. So, yes…Anything can happen. But that ain’t the way to bet.
Prediction: 1. Retherford (PSU); 2. Sorenson (IOWA); 3. Deakin (NW); 4. Leeth (MIZZ); 5. Hayes (tOSU); 6. Kolodzik (PRIN); 7. Tsirtsis (ASU); 8. Oliver (CMU).
“Don’t miss” match: Retherford v. Hayes (because it sounds so presidential) possible semifinal
Interesting stat: Six, representing both: 1) Brandon Sorenson’s career losses to Zain Retherford (record vs. Retherford: 0-6; record vs. “not Retherford”: 121-9); and 2) the number of years Brandon’s parents should have waited to have kids; there might have been a multiple-time NCAA champion in the family.
157
Seriously…is there anyone you’d rather send out to win a fight on one leg than Jason Nolf (PSU)? OK…I’ll spot you Daniel LaRusso…but even then, Nolf/Cael Sanderson > LaRusso/Mr. Miyagi, right? If he’s at or near 100%, it’s defending champ Nolf, period. But after he sustained a late season injury (reckless speculation: “What knee?”), a door appears to be ajar. Conversely, a jar does not appear to be a door. (Heffernan (CMU) is no first round picnic, by the way.) The contenders: #1 seed Hidlay (NCST) is undefeated. Last year’s runnerup Lavallee (MIZZ) has lost only to Hidlay, SV-1, 3-1. Kemerer (IOWA) was unbeaten until he was stunned by Jordan (tOSU) in the Big Ten semifinals. Kemerer hasn’t looked 100% to me over his last several matches either (not reckless speculation…but a cold hard fact: I don’t know my butt from a raging spladle.). Possible Nolf/Kemerer quarterfinal knocks one of maybe the best two guys in this weight class out of the chase early. Also lurking are Shields (ASU) (29-2) and Pantaleo, who fought a healthy Nolf to a 6-4 decision in a dual meet, and knocked off Jordan in the Big 10 finals. Team race could be decided right here, with a big possible PSU/tOSU swing. Hard for me to see anyone else cracking this group to take the title. Smart money might be on Hidlay or Pantaleo, but… Big Ten tournament Nolf (pretty darn good) + two weeks of healing = Nolf finds a way.
Prediction: 1.Nolf (PSU); 2. Hidlay (NCST); 3.Lavallee (MIZZ); 4. Kemerer (IOWA); 5. Pantaleo (MICH); 6. Shields (ASU); 7. Jordan (tOSU); 8. Colgan (WYO).
“Don’t miss” match: Kemerer v. Jordan possible consolation semifinal
Interesting stat: 92%, representing the probability that tOSU coach Tom Ryan successfully defends his championship at next year’s Day Toner 500.
165
Want an indication of how tough the Big Ten tournament is? Stud redshirt freshman Marinelli (IOWA) came into the tournament with no losses (ranked #2 in the country, with a win over returning NC Joseph(PSU))…and left with three, finishing sixth in the tournament. Without wrestling either of the two finalists. Ouch. Thanks for playing. Still, it could have been worse. He held on to a 5 seed for nationals. Drop any lower, and you get a QF match with #3 Joseph, undefeated (31-0) #2 McFadden (VT), or undefeated (14-0) #1 Martinez (ILL), who is shooting for his third national championship in four years. Martinez has lost twice in his career; two years ago to Nolf in a dual meet, and last year to Joseph in the NCAA finals. Lifetime? 2-1 vs. Nolf; 3-1 vs. Joseph. The guy is good…and he’ll need to be. Possible tricky QF with the Rogers (OKST)-Marsteller (LHU) winner, followed by Marinelli or Walsh (RID), whose avenged his only loss (to Marsteller) in the EWL finals. Then there’s Massa (MICH), who finished third last year. Due to injury (reckless speculation: sprained uncle; which runs in the family…well, limps in the family), Massa hasn’t been himself this year (making it difficult to cash a check, among other things), but looked steadily better toward the end of the regular season. He put together a nice Big Ten tournament (beating Marinelli twice) and looks ready to challenge anyone in the field. Lewis (RUT) also deserves mention. (Hey, if I don’t, he will, right?) His four losses this year (to Marinelli, twice, Joseph, and Martinez) were by a total of seven points, and his third place finish in the Big Ten tournament included wins over Marinelli and Vick. Tough, tough weight class.
Prediction: 1. Martinez (ILL); 2. Joseph (PSU); 3. Marinelli (IOWA); 4. Marsteller (LHU); 5. McFadden (VT); 6. Massa (MICH); 7. Lewis (RUT); 8. Walsh (RID).
“Don’t miss” match: Marsteller v.Rogers possible R16
Interesting stat: 14, representing the number of nearfall points given up by Vincenzo Joseph in his last six matches. Michelangelo spent less time on his back in the Sistine Chapel. (Though both did solid work from that position.)
174
Defending champion Hall (PSU) returns, sporting an unblemished 28-0 record. Still, the equally unbeaten (27-0) Valencia (ASU) drew the #1 seed. He lost to Hall in the NCAA semifinals last year on a technical violation (a nasty “Wet Willie”), but retaliated with a 3-2 decision over Hall in the 2017 NWCA All-Star Classic. Though the NWCA match did not count toward the competitors’ 2017-18 records or for NCAA seeding purposes :::wink:::, that bell still rang. Both have beaten most of the other top contenders. Valencia’s season included impressive wins over #4 Kutler (LEH), #5 Amine (MICH), #6 Jordan (tOSU, twice), and #7 Lujan (UNI, twice). Hall has two wins over Kutler, two over Amine, and one each over Jordan and #8 Bernstein (NAVY); #3 Lewis (MIZZ) quietly checks in with an unblemished record himself, returning after a sixth place finish in 2017, when he fell to eventual 165 pound champion Joseph 6-5 on a late takedown in the championship quarterfinals. Lewis, one hard riding son-of-a-gun, wrestled only Lujan (13-10 win) among the top contenders this year. If you carried the math down from above, you already know that Kutler, Amine, and Jordan are a combined 0-9 against Valencia and Hall this season. (If your first reaction to the previous sentence was “I was told there would be no math,” there is little hope for you. Please skip ahead to 184. Or, better yet, to March 18.) Amine has knocked off Jordan twice in the very recent past, and his two losses to Hall were by a point apiece. Jordan is still a tough out and a legitimate contender, and everyone else in the field would probably rather see Lewis on the other side of the bracket. I’ll go with a shaky vote for Valencia over Hall in the finals, in one of the best matches of the evening.
Prediction: 1. Valencia (ASU); 2. Hall (PSU); 3. Lewis (MIZZ); 4. Jordan (tOSU); 5. Kutler (LEH); 6. Amine (MICH); 7. Lujan (UNI); 8. Kocer (SDSU).
“Don’t miss” match: Lewis v. Jordan possible quarterfinal
Interesting stat: 175, the average weight of a mountain sheep in pounds. This probably explains why we have never seen a sheared mountain sheep outside of the 174 pound weight class at an NCAA tournament.
184
Returning champion Nickal (PSU) is the clear favorite to defend. Top challenger Martin (tOSU), who beat Nickal for the 174 pound title two years ago, was front and center in the two most important seconds of the dual meet season: 1) the last second of the Penn State match, when Nickal got a two count for the near fall and a bonus point that represented the margin of victory in PSU’s 19-18 dual meet win; and 2) the last second of the Michigan match, a heartbeat before #5 Abounader (MICH) was able to secure a potentially OT-producing takedown, as the Buckeyes held on to win the dual 18-15. Abounader (MICH) might tell you he’s the * on Nickal’s 27-0* record (I’m no expert…but I’ve seen that called a takedown before.), and is a factor here, along with Preisch (LEH), who missed some time this season (reckless speculation: severely twisted sister), and lost a tight 3-2 decision to Nickal in a dual meet. Renda (NCST) and Zavatsky (VT) from the ACC are also tough outs. 184 Conclusion: Gotta favor the title holder here. Don’t know where that whole “noodle arms” thing came from (oh, wait….yes, I do remember!); they were strong enough to turn Martin at the end of that seven-minute dual match. And, in a grueling three-day tournament, quick pins (which Nickal has been known to produce), are useful time- and energy-savers. Career-wise, Martin has an NCAA title and two Nickal scalps in his pocket. Not bad. Nickal has an NCAA title and six Martin scalps in his. Better. Dynamic, yet solid. High wrestling IQ. Nickal, FTW.
Prediction: 1. Nickal (PSU); 2.Martin (tOSU) ; 3. Preisch (LEH); 4. Renda (NCST); 5. Abounader (MICH); 6. Zavatsky (VT); 7. Foster (UNI); 8. Carr (UTC).
“Don’t miss” match: Venz (NEB) v. Parker (ILL) possible R16 (Round 3 between these two. First two were dynamite.)
Interesting stat: IV. First Downey generation to snag an NCAA wrestling title. Book it.
197
Tough weight class for me to figure, and I had to study a lot of video before making my picks. Valuable research though: It cracked me up when the Saint Bernard got stuck in the cat door, and even though I know what’s going to happen when that guy steps on the rake, I laugh every single time! Oh…and Wozniacki was a real trooper in that photo shoot. Then there’s the wrestling. Moore (tOSU, 3rd in 2017) held the #1 ranking for most of the regular season before fading, dropping decisions to Cassar (PSU) and Machiavello (NCST) in the final weeks, leaving no clear favorite. Haught (VT, 4th in 2017) has wins over Macchiavello and Boykin (UTC), but got stuck by Miklus (MIZZ) and Moore. Darmstadt (COR) built an impressive resumé, taking down Miklus (MD 9-0) and Rasheed (PSU), and avenged his only loss (to Mattiace (PENN)). Speaking of Miklus…despite an occasional head-scratcher, he’s in the mix too….right? Rasheed’s best win might have come against Cassar in the PSU room, earning the right to represent the team in the post-season. He rocked a mean cradle on the way to a Southern Scuffle title and 12 pins for the year, before falling to Moore in the Big Ten tournament final. Based on my extensive research…I’ll say the winner here comes from among Moore, Haught, and Darmstadt. Conclusions: 1. Darmstadt to win; 2. Don’t step on a rake; 3. You should consider becoming a painter.
Prediction: 1. Darmstadt (COR); 2. Moore (tOSU); 3. Haught (VT); 4. Macchiavello (NCST); 5. Miklus (MIZZ); 6. Rasheed (PSU); 7. Weigel (OKST); 8. Mattiace (PENN).
“Don’t miss” match: Haught v. Miklus possible quarterfinal
Interesting stats: 12 feet, 6 inches: Approximate wingspan of Shakur Rasheed; 12 feet, 7 inches +: Optimum distance to maintain between one’s nose and one’s kneecaps when wrestling Shakur Rasheed.
285
Well…this sure got interesting, didn’t it? The college wrestling world got drenched with a bucketful of new perspective with Coon’s (MICH) stunning (well, maybe not all that stunning in retrospect) dual meet win over multiple NCAA, world, Olympic, Yarygin, and intergalactic champion Snyder (tOSU), in one of the best 3-1 matches you’ll ever see. And an absolutely a fair result it was. Just as was the Big Ten tournament final, when Snyder returned the favor, by the same count, in OT. If nothing else, the 285-pound championship is no longer the foregone conclusion it was thought to be for most of the 2017-2018 season. Hard…no, make that impossible…to imagine anything but a Snyder-Coon final here, with a significant dropoff to the bagful of Nevills (PSU), Kasper (DUKE), Stoll (IOWA), Dhesi (OREST), Butler (STAN), Hall (ASU), and White (OKST) fighting for a lower spot on the podium. Dhesi, Nevills, and Kasper appear to be in the best form of that group coming into the tournament, but barring injury to Snyder or Coon or an unexpected locust plague, they’re all battling for third place. Final college match…team championship possibly in play…rubber match for all-time bragging rights…I have to believe Snyder finds a way to take this.
Prediction: 1. Snyder (tOSU); 2. Coon (MICH); 3. Dhesi (OREST); 4. Nevills (PSU); 5. Kasper (DUK); 6. Stoll (IOWA); 7. Hughes (HOF); 8. Butler (STAN).
“Don’t miss” match: Snyder v. Coon final (Sorry. I think this is the only correct answer.)
Interesting stats: Two miles. Four shoes. I had intended to wrap this thing up with a pre-emptive shot at the inevitable inane blatherings of ESPN reporters Quint Kessenich and Billy Baldwin….but I’ll paraphrase some sage advice once offered by one of my heroes, comic genius/philosopher Steve Martin: “Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, when you do criticize him, you’ve got a one-mile head start…and you’ve got his shoes.” Seems only fair. I’ll see what I can do.
Now…I’ll apologize in advance for the team standings, and refer you back to the first paragraph: “The truth is…I have no idea what’s going to happen this weekend.” After I completed championship and consolation brackets for all ten weight classes, then counted up on fingers and toes, here was the result:
Projected Team Standings:
1. tOSU 150.0
2. Penn State 138.5
3. Missouri 82.5
4. Michigan 79.0
5. NC State 66.0
6. Iowa 64.5
7. Oklahoma State 55.0
8. Lehigh 54.0
9. (tie) Cornell 45.5
Virginia Tech 45.5
Honestly, it feels like I’m wrong, but I wasn’t going to go back and redo a weight class or two to make the final numbers fit a preferred result. I’ll just have to be wrong. (Happily so, I might add.) I know I didn’t pick enough upsets; I never do. I think several key tossup matches might tell the tale, and I seemed to come down on the tOSU side of most of them (Big Ten tournament recency bias?):
- Tomasello-Lee. Dead tossup.
- McKenna-Meredith. If the favored Meredith wins, McKenna would finish anywhere from 3 to 6.
- Moore-Macchiavello/Rasheed. Moore a slight favorite, but lost to Macchiavello head-to-head just a few weeks ago. And if Rasheed could make it here, and win….
- Snyder-Coon. Dead tossup.
Four matches. tOSU favored in one, underdog in one…two tossups. Called them all for tOSU. Four-match parlay pays off pretty good in Vegas, doesn’t it? Ignoring any other upsets or the 20-30% of the other matches I’ll screw up….well, this result is well within the margin of error. Make that “errors.” FWIW…if I had to bet a dollar, I’d bet it on PSU. There. Now I feel better.
Lastly…before you dismiss these predictions as the rantings of a senile old man (which, of course, they are) and Tom drops the ban hammer on me for this blasphemous piece of crap....errr... I mean "work", you should consider this passage, taken word-for-word from last year’s preview:
“Pletcher (tOSU) and Carton (IOWA) could meet early on the backside if seeds hold.”
Oh, sure…anyone could have come up with that…but remember, I was the only prognosticator to stick a neck out and accurately forecast that the match would be held on Mat #....
Oops…willya look at the time! Sorry…gotta run…I’m late for that appointment with my probation officer!
If all goes well with that, I’ll check back in after the tournament.
If not…please send a pan of brownies.
Good luck and good health to all competitors!
SR/BHF
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