RYAN VULAKH UPDATED to RUTGERS:
YOU asked for it**….I DELIVER. For the 3rd consecutive year I am posting my Recruiting rankings using the formula I keep tweaking in the hopes that it will not only rank the recruiting classes by numerical order but also assign a numerical value to each team's recruits that will (hopefully) accurately predict the ratio of points you can expect from the class. So if team A has 400 points and team B has 200 points......then you can expect Team A's recruits to double the NCAA output of team B. It doesn't mean they will score 400 points...…..it is a ratio. From looking at the production of top 10 recruits at NCAA and comparing it to the production of those ranked 11-20 and 30-40 etc......I have been trying to come up with a formula that will predict success based on previous patterns. There has been a LOT more data produced on this subject in the last 3-4 years so it should be easier to test. I have used mostly the more recent data because I think the rating agencies are getting better at ranking because there are so many opportunities for the quality wrestlers to perform.....therefore better/larger database to assign rankings.
The trick is to assign point totals that reflect the production disparity of top 10 recruits as compared to the 11-20 and the 21-30 group etc. The point scale I chose is heavily weighted towards the top and goes down at a rate that is supposed to emulate actual results of each group. Here goes:
I used FLO's Big Board 2019 rankings and assigned points accordingly ( after a few test runs ):
1. 150 Pts ....... 6. 121....... 11. 105
2. 142 .............. 7. 117....... 12. 102
3. 135 ........... .. 8. 114....... 13. 100
4. 129 .............. 9. 111.......
5. 125 ............. 10. 108
From 14-20......drop 2 points each placement. So #20 is 88 points. After that......drop 1 point per placement.......Giving #100 5 points Got it? This year's results: INTERMAT rankings in ()
TEAM: Total Points FLO ranking of recruits
1(1) Ohio St.... 535...………….1, 4, 5, 32, 50
2(3) Cornell..... 405...…………10, 15, 21, 61, 69, 78, 98
3(12) Rutgers...402...………...6, 26, 34, 28, 64, 81
4.(2) Az. State.. 393...…………2, 7, 35, 44
5(5) Va. Tech . 250...………...13, 28, 41, 99
6(13) Fres. St. 240...………...12, 52, 54, 71
7(18) N. Colo. 227...………...3, 57, 60
8(8) Okla. St.. 225...………...24, 25, 47
9(4) Wiscon... 216...………...23, 36, 48
10(9) Iowa St. 209...………...11, 20. 89
11(14) Lehigh 194...…………45, 51, 62, 68
12(6) Nebras. 181...………...16, 30, 96
13(16) NC St. 176...………...34, 49, 72, 92
14(11) Mich... 163...………...17, 37
15(10) Illinois 156...………...18, 39
16(17) Penn... 150...………...19, 63, 85
17(7) Okla. ….. 130...………...56, 59, 70
18(19) N Iowa 121...………...14, 82
19(UR) N. Car 114...………...38, 72, 93
19(21) Stanf.. 114...………...8
21(22) PSU.... 111...………...9
22(20) Iowa....101...………...29, 83
23(24).Northwestern. 97………..53, 74, 91
24(UR) Virgin .. 94...…………33, 86
25(UR) PITT ... 88...………...42, 80
26(15) Minn.... 81...………...27
27(HM) Mi. St. 77...………...31
Thoughts:
-Not sure how Intermat didn't rank North Carolina....3 top 100 recruits including Gabe Tagg...who many would have a lot higher than 38 now.
-Not sure how Oklahoma can be so high(7th) with their highest recruit being #56
-Not sure how Rutgers can be so low and behind Oklahoma when Rutgers has 4 top 100 recruits including #6 and #43. How does 56, 59 and 70 beat #6, 43, 64 and 81?... #6 is 50 places HIGHER than #56. #43 is 16 places higher than #59 and #64 is 6 places higher than #70. Then the EXTRA 4th pick at #81 has no comparison. NO logical explanation for Rutgers to be close to Oklahoma...let alone BEHIND. There has to be some serious halucinogins involved here
.
-Not sure how Indiana got ranked without a single top 100 recruit
-Not sure how Northern Colorado can be so low when they got #3 Alirez.....who may outscore many of the teams ranked ahead of them by himself.
-Not sure how Minnesota's is 7 spots above Penn State when they both have one top 100 recruit. Penn State has #9 while Minnesota has #27 ??
-PITT IS RANK…...I mean RANKED
-Compared to last year....the recruits are more spread out among more teams
*Prediction Accuracy void in all States but Catatonic.
** Full Disclosure.....Nobody ask for it
As per usual....if you have any suggestions or complaints.....feel free to call or text to 1-800-BITE ME!
ENJOY!!
YOU asked for it**….I DELIVER. For the 3rd consecutive year I am posting my Recruiting rankings using the formula I keep tweaking in the hopes that it will not only rank the recruiting classes by numerical order but also assign a numerical value to each team's recruits that will (hopefully) accurately predict the ratio of points you can expect from the class. So if team A has 400 points and team B has 200 points......then you can expect Team A's recruits to double the NCAA output of team B. It doesn't mean they will score 400 points...…..it is a ratio. From looking at the production of top 10 recruits at NCAA and comparing it to the production of those ranked 11-20 and 30-40 etc......I have been trying to come up with a formula that will predict success based on previous patterns. There has been a LOT more data produced on this subject in the last 3-4 years so it should be easier to test. I have used mostly the more recent data because I think the rating agencies are getting better at ranking because there are so many opportunities for the quality wrestlers to perform.....therefore better/larger database to assign rankings.
The trick is to assign point totals that reflect the production disparity of top 10 recruits as compared to the 11-20 and the 21-30 group etc. The point scale I chose is heavily weighted towards the top and goes down at a rate that is supposed to emulate actual results of each group. Here goes:
I used FLO's Big Board 2019 rankings and assigned points accordingly ( after a few test runs ):
1. 150 Pts ....... 6. 121....... 11. 105
2. 142 .............. 7. 117....... 12. 102
3. 135 ........... .. 8. 114....... 13. 100
4. 129 .............. 9. 111.......
5. 125 ............. 10. 108
From 14-20......drop 2 points each placement. So #20 is 88 points. After that......drop 1 point per placement.......Giving #100 5 points Got it? This year's results: INTERMAT rankings in ()
TEAM: Total Points FLO ranking of recruits
1(1) Ohio St.... 535...………….1, 4, 5, 32, 50
2(3) Cornell..... 405...…………10, 15, 21, 61, 69, 78, 98
3(12) Rutgers...402...………...6, 26, 34, 28, 64, 81
4.(2) Az. State.. 393...…………2, 7, 35, 44
5(5) Va. Tech . 250...………...13, 28, 41, 99
6(13) Fres. St. 240...………...12, 52, 54, 71
7(18) N. Colo. 227...………...3, 57, 60
8(8) Okla. St.. 225...………...24, 25, 47
9(4) Wiscon... 216...………...23, 36, 48
10(9) Iowa St. 209...………...11, 20. 89
11(14) Lehigh 194...…………45, 51, 62, 68
12(6) Nebras. 181...………...16, 30, 96
13(16) NC St. 176...………...34, 49, 72, 92
14(11) Mich... 163...………...17, 37
15(10) Illinois 156...………...18, 39
16(17) Penn... 150...………...19, 63, 85
17(7) Okla. ….. 130...………...56, 59, 70
18(19) N Iowa 121...………...14, 82
19(UR) N. Car 114...………...38, 72, 93
19(21) Stanf.. 114...………...8
21(22) PSU.... 111...………...9
22(20) Iowa....101...………...29, 83
23(24).Northwestern. 97………..53, 74, 91
24(UR) Virgin .. 94...…………33, 86
25(UR) PITT ... 88...………...42, 80
26(15) Minn.... 81...………...27
27(HM) Mi. St. 77...………...31
Thoughts:
-Not sure how Intermat didn't rank North Carolina....3 top 100 recruits including Gabe Tagg...who many would have a lot higher than 38 now.
-Not sure how Oklahoma can be so high(7th) with their highest recruit being #56
-Not sure how Rutgers can be so low and behind Oklahoma when Rutgers has 4 top 100 recruits including #6 and #43. How does 56, 59 and 70 beat #6, 43, 64 and 81?... #6 is 50 places HIGHER than #56. #43 is 16 places higher than #59 and #64 is 6 places higher than #70. Then the EXTRA 4th pick at #81 has no comparison. NO logical explanation for Rutgers to be close to Oklahoma...let alone BEHIND. There has to be some serious halucinogins involved here
-Not sure how Indiana got ranked without a single top 100 recruit
-Not sure how Northern Colorado can be so low when they got #3 Alirez.....who may outscore many of the teams ranked ahead of them by himself.
-Not sure how Minnesota's is 7 spots above Penn State when they both have one top 100 recruit. Penn State has #9 while Minnesota has #27 ??
-PITT IS RANK…...I mean RANKED
-Compared to last year....the recruits are more spread out among more teams
*Prediction Accuracy void in all States but Catatonic.
** Full Disclosure.....Nobody ask for it
As per usual....if you have any suggestions or complaints.....feel free to call or text to 1-800-BITE ME!
ENJOY!!
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