There is a lot of talk and speculation on if Penn State still has a chance, who from Iowa can place lower than expected, etc. I'm a bit of a stat nerd so I decided to put it in a sheet. This is my first time doing so, so it may still be a bit of a work in progress but I will clean it up over time.
These are the newest current rankings from Flo.
1. Iowa 144.5
2. Penn State 78
Iowa is 66.5 point favorites based off of rankings without bonus. (note when I add it up Iowa is only 140.5 and 62.5 point favorites. I also had it off by 4 last week so not sure if Flo has the mistake or I do.
Since bonus will also be a factor I have estimated what I think the bonus will be. Currently, I think Iowa has the better bonus potential and I have that bonus score at 22-11. (This could possibly use some work, last year I think the bonus score was Penn State 26.5 to Iowa 13)
Adding Bonus the new scores are:
1. Iowa 162.5
2. Penn State 89
Iowa is 73.5 point favorites.
It sounds like an insurmountable lead to overcome. Iowa is highly favored and I can see why people would think it is over. It's basically the situation where everything must go wrong for Iowa and everything must go right for Penn State. Need some of that PSU Magic! Losing AC hurts bad and it was a large gap with him in the lineup.
As with the talk on Flo radio, this score is basically Iowa's ceiling. They have 9 wrestlers in the top 4 with only Assad able to improve much with currently being ranked at 10. So they can't get much higher.
Penn State only has 4 wrestlers ranked in the top 4 with Berge, Rasheed, Brooks, Nevills all having room to improve their ranking. Technically Meredith does as well although I don't foresee points from him. Berge & Rasheed being the biggest question marks right now where they are at physically. If they both can get to their potential the point difference should begin to narrow albeit still leaving a huge gap.
One more thing is there is a lot of season left, lots of big Ten matches, and the landscape could drastically change for either team with Injuries, etc.
So what is needing to happen for Penn State to win?
Here is my sheet if anyone is interested. This will be updated each time Flo updates their rankings. This is a combo of Flo's ranking, bonus projections, all the positive things for PSU and bad things for Iowa that must happen for the Path to Victory.
Path to Victory!!!
Overview is:
On Penn States' side, there needs to be vast improvements by Verkleeren, Berge, Brooks, Rasheed with everyone else hitting their place or doing slightly better.
On Iowa's side there needs to be disappointing finishes by Murin, Lugo, and slightly not as good of finishes by DeSanto, Young, Kemerer, Warner.
I give Penn State a current 5% chance of winning, which seems high when I say that.
These are the newest current rankings from Flo.
1. Iowa 144.5
2. Penn State 78
Iowa is 66.5 point favorites based off of rankings without bonus. (note when I add it up Iowa is only 140.5 and 62.5 point favorites. I also had it off by 4 last week so not sure if Flo has the mistake or I do.
Since bonus will also be a factor I have estimated what I think the bonus will be. Currently, I think Iowa has the better bonus potential and I have that bonus score at 22-11. (This could possibly use some work, last year I think the bonus score was Penn State 26.5 to Iowa 13)
Adding Bonus the new scores are:
1. Iowa 162.5
2. Penn State 89
Iowa is 73.5 point favorites.
It sounds like an insurmountable lead to overcome. Iowa is highly favored and I can see why people would think it is over. It's basically the situation where everything must go wrong for Iowa and everything must go right for Penn State. Need some of that PSU Magic! Losing AC hurts bad and it was a large gap with him in the lineup.
As with the talk on Flo radio, this score is basically Iowa's ceiling. They have 9 wrestlers in the top 4 with only Assad able to improve much with currently being ranked at 10. So they can't get much higher.
Penn State only has 4 wrestlers ranked in the top 4 with Berge, Rasheed, Brooks, Nevills all having room to improve their ranking. Technically Meredith does as well although I don't foresee points from him. Berge & Rasheed being the biggest question marks right now where they are at physically. If they both can get to their potential the point difference should begin to narrow albeit still leaving a huge gap.
One more thing is there is a lot of season left, lots of big Ten matches, and the landscape could drastically change for either team with Injuries, etc.
So what is needing to happen for Penn State to win?
Here is my sheet if anyone is interested. This will be updated each time Flo updates their rankings. This is a combo of Flo's ranking, bonus projections, all the positive things for PSU and bad things for Iowa that must happen for the Path to Victory.
Path to Victory!!!
Overview is:
On Penn States' side, there needs to be vast improvements by Verkleeren, Berge, Brooks, Rasheed with everyone else hitting their place or doing slightly better.
On Iowa's side there needs to be disappointing finishes by Murin, Lugo, and slightly not as good of finishes by DeSanto, Young, Kemerer, Warner.
I give Penn State a current 5% chance of winning, which seems high when I say that.
