No worries, no need to pull any shirts...

[dicemen99]

With the news of Cortez likely out for the season, posters here (a couple) and elsewhere are speculating about the need to pull Hall's shirt this year. They obviously haven't been paying attention to PSU wrestling over the past six years.

PSU has won their five championships in the past six years mostly on the backs of five core wrestlers each year that scored 10+ points (many times 20+). Only once in the five championships did the five top PSU wrestlers score less than 100 points combined - 2014 with 89.5 - and the average combined point total for the top five wrestlers was 106.4 points combined. In 3 of the 5 years (2011,2012,2016), the top 5 total would have been enough to win the championship. In 2014, the top 7 wrestlers were required to win, in 2013 the top 8 were required to win.

This year PSU seems to have all the right ingredients in place to continue this with six wrestlers currently poised to score a lot of points at nationals - Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Suriano, Nevills & Joseph. I think McCutcheon is a possible AA also.

Year-by-Year

2016 - PSU 123, OK State 97.5
Retherford 28.5
Nolf 22
Megaludis 21
McIntosh 20
Nickal 18
Top 5 total - 109.5 points

2014 - PSU 109.5, Minnesota 104
Taylor 27
Ruth 24.5
Megaludis 15
Retherford 12
Brown 11
Top 5 total - 89.5 points
McIntosh 8.5
English 6.5
Top 7 total - 104.5 points

2013 - PSU 123.5, OK State 119.5
Ruth 26
Taylor 24
Wright 22
Brown 20
Megaludis 18.5
Top 5 total - 110.5 points
D Alton 5
Conaway 3.5
A Alton 2.5
Top 8 total - 121.5 points

2012 - PSU 143, Minnesota 117.5
Taylor 30.5
Ruth 27.5
Molinaro 23
Wright 21
Megaludis 18
Top 5 total - 120 points

2011 - PSU 107.5, Cornell 93.5
Taylor 22
Long 20.5
Ruth 20
Molinaro 20
Wright 20
Top 5 total - 102.5

Point scoring changed in 2013 I believe. Point totals are courtesy of the PSU wrestling club website.

 

[21Guns]

Oklahoma State has ten point getting wrestlers this year. It will take more than what it took in the past. Penn State, is already down to 9, and unless things improve at 141, possibly 8.

 

[dicemen99]

Oklahoma State has ten point getting wrestlers this year. It will take more than what it took in the past. Penn State, is already down to 9, and unless things improve at 141, possibly 8.

I doubt it. How many wrestlers will it take OK State to get 100 points? More than PSU by a few.

 

[diggerpup]

Oklahoma State has ten point getting wrestlers this year. It will take more than what it took in the past. Penn State, is already down to 9, and unless things improve at 141, possibly 8.

You must have skipped a lot of math classes when you were young.

 

[NittanyChris]

With the news of Cortez likely out for the season, posters here (a couple) and elsewhere are speculating about the need to pull Hall's shirt this year. They obviously haven't been paying attention to PSU wrestling over the past six years.

PSU has won their five championships in the past six years mostly on the backs of five core wrestlers each year that scored 10+ points (many times 20+). Only once in the five championships did the five top PSU wrestlers score less than 100 points combined - 2014 with 89.5 - and the average combined point total for the top five wrestlers was 106.4 points combined. In 3 of the 5 years (2011,2012,2016), the top 5 total would have been enough to win the championship. In 2014, the top 7 wrestlers were required to win, in 2013 the top 8 were required to win.

This year PSU seems to have all the right ingredients in place to continue this with six wrestlers currently poised to score a lot of points at nationals - Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Suriano, Nevills & Joseph. I think McCutcheon is a possible AA also.

Year-by-Year

2016 - PSU 123, OK State 97.5
Retherford 28.5
Nolf 22
Megaludis 21
McIntosh 20
Nickal 18
Top 5 total - 109.5 points

2014 - PSU 109.5, Minnesota 104
Taylor 27
Ruth 24.5
Megaludis 15
Retherford 12
Brown 11
Top 5 total - 89.5 points
McIntosh 8.5
English 6.5
Top 7 total - 104.5 points

2013 - PSU 123.5, OK State 119.5
Ruth 26
Taylor 24
Wright 22
Brown 20
Megaludis 18.5
Top 5 total - 110.5 points
D Alton 5
Conaway 3.5
A Alton 2.5
Top 8 total - 121.5 points

2012 - PSU 143, Minnesota 117.5
Taylor 30.5
Ruth 27.5
Molinaro 23
Wright 21
Megaludis 18
Top 5 total - 120 points

2011 - PSU 107.5, Cornell 93.5
Taylor 22
Long 20.5
Ruth 20
Molinaro 20
Wright 20
Top 5 total - 102.5

Point scoring changed in 2013 I believe. Point totals are courtesy of the PSU wrestling club website.

You could very well be correct. However, there is really no denying that losing Cortez is a big blow. If I had to say today, I think PSU still wins it all. That said, the margin for error just got very small.

 

[nitlion6]

You could very well be correct. However, there is really no denying that losing Cortez is a big blow. If I had to say today, I think PSU still wins it all. That said, the margin for error just got very small.

Losing Cortez is a big blow to the kid and it sux.

 

[dunkej01]

I think our Super 3 is better than any other teams.

Our next 2 create the best big 5 in the country in my opinion.

From there it's just a debate.

If we have 8 AAs hard for any teams to overcome our bonus that actually racks up to be like another AA.

If we have a bad run and only the big 5 AA we can't win i don't think.

I'm betting Cody has run the numbers and likes where we are at.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

I think our Super 3 is better than any other teams.

Our next 2 create the best big 5 in the country in my opinion.

From there it's just a debate.

If we have 8 AAs hard for any teams to overcome our bonus that actually racks up to be like another AA.

If we have a bad run and only the big 5 AA we can't win i don't think.

I'm betting Cody has run the numbers and likes where we are at.

Will be interesting to see how VinJo does the rest of the way as our next 3 and top 6 all could project pretty high.

 

[greenmanRD]

I think we're looking at a situation where we have 3 finalists (all of whom can win the title), 2 other high AAs (Suriano, Nevills), and 1 more AA who could end up in that 3-5 range (Cenzo), then I like our chances to stand atop the podium.

I still don't believe Okie State will end up with 10 AAs either.

 

[LemonPie]

I'm worried. If Nevills or Joseph slips off the podium, might as well get that 2nd place trophy ready. I'm out.

 

[greenmanRD]

I think our Super 3 is better than any other teams.

Our next 2 create the best big 5 in the country in my opinion.

From there it's just a debate.

If we have 8 AAs hard for any teams to overcome our bonus that actually racks up to be like another AA.

If we have a bad run and only the big 5 AA we can't win i don't think.

I'm betting Cody has run the numbers and likes where we are at.

I don't think we'll have 8. I think we're looking good for 6, and maybe 7 if Cutch or Morelli step up.

 

[dicemen99]

I'm worried. If Nevills or Joseph slips off the podium, might as well get that 2nd place trophy ready. I'm out.

Did you actually read the numbers above or just skim it?

 

[21Guns]

I don't think we'll have 8. I think we're looking good for 6, and maybe 7 if Cutch or Morelli step up.

Step WAY up: Currently ranked 14th. 6 places up is AA.

 

[burnsie1983]

I love the OP. I came on to make a similar post....it's not going to be easy, at all. But, the path is clearly there for PSU to win. I think Ok St, and maybe tOSU or Iowa have the potential to beat PSU but I remain cautiously optimistic.

 

[dicemen99]

Step WAY up: Currently ranked 14th. 6 places up is AA.

You are way too hung up on rankings. Rankings are indicative of resume, not predictors of results. You should have learned this over the past six years - most years we were sitting in the same position we are now.

BTW, you are off on Cutch. Currently ranked 10th, 7th, 8th, 12th, 9th, 6th, 6th, 10th, 4th by the various services. That averages out to 8th. Only losses: 3-2 to Pfarr and via banana split pin to Studebaker (who he has defeated before).

 

[burnsie1983]

Dice, Roar, or other willing participant, do you care to make a projection for the 3 other teams I mentioned based on their rankings/your feel on where they'll finish?

 

[dunkej01]

You are way too hung up on rankings. Rankings are indicative of resume, not predictors of results. You should have learned this over the past six years - most years we were sitting in the same position we are now.

BTW, you are off on Cutch. Currently ranked 10th, 7th, 8th, 12th, 9th, 6th, 6th, 10th, 4th by the various services. That averages out to 8th. Only losses: 3-2 to Pfarr and via banana split pin to Studebaker (who he has defeated before).

Dont get all uppity with facts.

This will not stop until nationals is over and then either it will be blown off as it didnt happen all these months or it will be an avalanche of I told you so. It will be epic either way.

 

[21Guns]

Dont get all uppity with facts.

This will not stop until nationals is over and then either it will be blown off as it didnt happen all these months or it will be an avalanche of I told you so. It will be epic either way.

Or Cael will burn Mark Hall's redshirt.

 

[dunkej01]

Or Cael will burn Mark Hall's redshirt.

In which case my "or" applies again.

 

[LemonPie]

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

Our bottom 4 is a little better, but we're talking maybe a difference of 3 points?

tOSU basically has the same formula. We better be rooting for Micah to lose to Sorensen and get the 4-seed. If Micah makes the final, they 90% chance they have four in the finals. If Martin and Moore make AA, and one of Nevills or Joseph fall short, I'm sure they have enough to overcome the bonus points by PSU.

Iowa can also do 4 finalists and have a path to 1st.

 

[El-Jefe]

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

Our bottom 4 is a little better, but we're talking maybe a difference of 3 points?

tOSU basically has the same formula. We better be rooting for Micah to lose to Sorensen and get the 4-seed. If Micah makes the final, they 90% chance they have four in the finals. If Martin and Moore make AA, and one of Nevills or Joseph fall short, I'm sure they have enough to overcome the bonus points by PSU.

Iowa can also do 4 finalists and have a path to 1st.

Advance congratulations to Cenzo for winning the national title as a freshman!

 

[NoVa Lion]

Did you actually read the numbers above or just skim it?

Dice, you should know better than to bring up facts to the delusional. LOL

 

[diggerpup]

it comes

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

Our bottom 4 is a little better, but we're talking maybe a difference of 3 points?

tOSU basically has the same formula. We better be rooting for Micah to lose to Sorensen and get the 4-seed. If Micah makes the final, they 90% chance they have four in the finals. If Martin and Moore make AA, and one of Nevills or Joseph fall short, I'm sure they have enough to overcome the bonus points by PSU.

Iowa can also do 4 finalists and have a path to 1st.

NATO is NOT = Zain.

You really have trouble with understanding tournament scoring.

Zain will bonus / pin his way thru quarters and probably semis. And could MD again in the final.

NATO might be ranked #1 but he is hardly a lock for the 133 final.

Even if NATO wins 133, Zain will still score 3-4 even 5 more points than NATO at nationals, and those 4-5 points probably covers what PSU is losing with the loss of Cortez.

 

[dicemen99]

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

Our bottom 4 is a little better, but we're talking maybe a difference of 3 points?

tOSU basically has the same formula. We better be rooting for Micah to lose to Sorensen and get the 4-seed. If Micah makes the final, they 90% chance they have four in the finals. If Martin and Moore make AA, and one of Nevills or Joseph fall short, I'm sure they have enough to overcome the bonus points by PSU.

Iowa can also do 4 finalists and have a path to 1st.

I agree in principle with this post and people who write off tOSU are making a big mistake. Their dual holes don't mean much in March. Zain = Tomasello, though, is reaching and the 3 points you reference becomes a lot more when you factor in bonus.

 

[LemonPie]

it comes



NATO is NOT = Zain.

You really have trouble with understanding tournament scoring.

Zain will bonus / pin his way thru quarters and probably semis. And could MD again in the final.

NATO might be ranked #1 but he is hardly a lock for the 133 final.

Even if NATO wins 133, Zain will still score 3-4 even 5 more points than NATO at nationals, and those 4-5 points probably covers what PSU is losing with the loss of Cortez.

Nato and Snyder scored 10 bonus points last year. Snyder will likely up his bonus rate. The most Nolf and Nickal can score is 20. So yes, they are in the same neighborhood as Nolf and Zain if Nato (the favorite) can win his weight. Obviously I wasn't using "=" in absolute terms. Micah and BoJo could outplace Suriano and Nickal as well

 

[LemonPie]

Advance congratulations to Cenzo for winning the national title as a freshman!

I know. This is a scenario where we need Joseph to hang with a national champ in scoring. But it's a lock, right?

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Additional data point - the all conquering Bojo (who has yet to even conquer his own extended family mind you) once again in a walking boot

 

[LemonPie]

Nolf 1st 28 points
Zain 1st 28 points
Nickal 2nd 20 points
Suriano 2nd 17 points
Nevills 4th 15.5 points
Joseph DNP 3.5 points

112


Snyder 1st 27 points
Tomasello 1st 25 points
Jordan 2nd 19 points
Jordan 2nd 19 points
Moore 4th 14 points
Martin 6th 11 points

115


Would the bottom 4 make up the difference? Maybe not. Really need Nevills and Joseph to AA, and they will be counting on Moore (in a weak weight) and a former national champ. A slip up from Joseph or Nevills could be costly.

Now, I do think all 6 will AA, but we are really cutting it close.

 

[El-Jefe]

Additional data point - the all conquering Bojo (who has yet to even conquer his own extended family mind you) once again in a walking boot

Jordan = Robles!

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Jordan = Robles!

 

[21Guns]

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

Our bottom 4 is a little better, but we're talking maybe a difference of 3 points?

tOSU basically has the same formula. We better be rooting for Micah to lose to Sorensen and get the 4-seed. If Micah makes the final, they 90% chance they have four in the finals. If Martin and Moore make AA, and one of Nevills or Joseph fall short, I'm sure they have enough to overcome the bonus points by PSU.

Iowa can also do 4 finalists and have a path to 1st.

Easy with that whole "facts" thing...it doesn't play well with the myopia crowd.

 

[CowboyUp61]

Dear Cael,

burn Halls shirt, insert Nick Lee at 141, and pull Jimmy down to 133 (weight descent rules be damned!), so these guys can have a rest.

That much math has to wear them out, even if done over a two hour spread.

 

[nitlion6]

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

.

I have to admit with a cursory look this appears to be a valid perspective.
Points wise Nolf and Snyder appear equally dominant.
Tomasello if he wins isn't bonusing his way to a championship. Zain scores 28 points, Tomasello at best 24.
Nickal and Jordan may match places, but Nickal scores more.
I'm going with PSU being minimum 6 points ahead after comparing these 3.

Little Jordan may equate Suriano, but right now Jordan looks more like 4 or 5 while Nick looks 2 or 3.
Martin may fix what ails him, but as of right now I struggle to imagine Martin placing anything close to Joseph.

Moore = Nevillis? First, until I see Moore and Matt wrestle I am inclined to believe Moore = McCutcheon. Second, I am anxious to see how Nick deals with Stoll. If Nick's athleticism enables him to repeatedly attack Stoll successfully that would indicate Nick is a likely Saturday night participant. If Nick struggles with Stoll and Moore were to have a spectacularly successful tournament they could prove equal.

The two sets of 6 are not equal. The seperation most likely is at least 15, probably closer to 20 points.

 

[Real-Lion]

With the news of Cortez likely out for the season, posters here (a couple) and elsewhere are speculating about the need to pull Hall's shirt this year. They obviously haven't been paying attention to PSU wrestling over the past six years.

PSU has won their five championships in the past six years mostly on the backs of five core wrestlers each year that scored 10+ points (many times 20+). Only once in the five championships did the five top PSU wrestlers score less than 100 points combined - 2014 with 89.5 - and the average combined point total for the top five wrestlers was 106.4 points combined. In 3 of the 5 years (2011,2012,2016), the top 5 total would have been enough to win the championship. In 2014, the top 7 wrestlers were required to win, in 2013 the top 8 were required to win.

This year PSU seems to have all the right ingredients in place to continue this with six wrestlers currently poised to score a lot of points at nationals - Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Suriano, Nevills & Joseph. I think McCutcheon is a possible AA also.

Year-by-Year

2016 - PSU 123, OK State 97.5
Retherford 28.5
Nolf 22
Megaludis 21
McIntosh 20
Nickal 18
Top 5 total - 109.5 points

2014 - PSU 109.5, Minnesota 104
Taylor 27
Ruth 24.5
Megaludis 15
Retherford 12
Brown 11
Top 5 total - 89.5 points
McIntosh 8.5
English 6.5
Top 7 total - 104.5 points

2013 - PSU 123.5, OK State 119.5
Ruth 26
Taylor 24
Wright 22
Brown 20
Megaludis 18.5
Top 5 total - 110.5 points
D Alton 5
Conaway 3.5
A Alton 2.5
Top 8 total - 121.5 points

2012 - PSU 143, Minnesota 117.5
Taylor 30.5
Ruth 27.5
Molinaro 23
Wright 21
Megaludis 18
Top 5 total - 120 points

2011 - PSU 107.5, Cornell 93.5
Taylor 22
Long 20.5
Ruth 20
Molinaro 20
Wright 20
Top 5 total - 102.5

Point scoring changed in 2013 I believe. Point totals are courtesy of the PSU wrestling club website.

I want Cassar to have a shot to wrestle off with Clutch...It's not fair at all if he does not get that shot....Cassar is very good...I like Matt but he is not going to do much at Nationals...IMO....That hurts us....

 

[El-Jefe]

I want Cassar to have a shot to wrestle off with Clutch...It's not fair at all if he does not get that shot....Cassar is very good...I like Matt but he is not going to do much at Nationals...IMO....That hurts us....

So it's not fair if the coaches instead attempt to get Cassar a 6th year? Or determine that he's not doing well enough at practice to warrant a wrestle-off? Wait, I forgot they're not the only ones at practice.

And I'd hate to see what you'd write about Mouse if you didn't like him. Jeez, he is a top 10 wrestler at his weight, maybe top 5, and he's not going to do much at nationals?

 

[LemonPie]

Cutch top 5? Lol

Can't wait for the snoozer against Wilcke

 

[lobo lion]

Nolf = Snyder
Zain = Tomasello
Nickal = Jordan
Suriano = M. Jordan
Joseph = Martin
Nevills = Moore

Our bottom 4 is a little better, but we're talking maybe a difference of 3 points?

tOSU basically has the same formula. We better be rooting for Micah to lose to Sorensen and get the 4-seed. If Micah makes the final, they 90% chance they have four in the finals. If Martin and Moore make AA, and one of Nevills or Joseph fall short, I'm sure they have enough to overcome the bonus points by PSU.

Iowa can also do 4 finalists and have a path to 1st.

Snyder seems to be more of a takedown artist than a fall man. In last year's tourney, he had 1 fall, 1 tech fall, 1 major decision and 2 decisions. I don't think he will match Nolf in bonus points.

 

[21Guns]

Cutch top 5? Lol

Can't wait for the snoozer against Wilcke

Wilcke gave Weigel all he wanted. That is not automatic.

 

[21Guns]

Snyder seems to be more of a takedown artist than a fall man. In last year's tourney, he had 1 fall, 1 tech fall, 1 major decision and 2 decisions. I don't think he will match Nolf in bonus points.

Snyder is one of the top 5 pound for pound wrestlers in the nation, maybe the world: If they need pins, he'll pin everyone until Saturday night. Walz included.

 

[NittanyLion84]

With the news of Cortez likely out for the season, posters here (a couple) and elsewhere are speculating about the need to pull Hall's shirt this year. They obviously haven't been paying attention to PSU wrestling over the past six years.

PSU has won their five championships in the past six years mostly on the backs of five core wrestlers each year that scored 10+ points (many times 20+). Only once in the five championships did the five top PSU wrestlers score less than 100 points combined - 2014 with 89.5 - and the average combined point total for the top five wrestlers was 106.4 points combined. In 3 of the 5 years (2011,2012,2016), the top 5 total would have been enough to win the championship. In 2014, the top 7 wrestlers were required to win, in 2013 the top 8 were required to win.

This year PSU seems to have all the right ingredients in place to continue this with six wrestlers currently poised to score a lot of points at nationals - Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, Suriano, Nevills & Joseph. I think McCutcheon is a possible AA also.

Year-by-Year

2016 - PSU 123, OK State 97.5
Retherford 28.5
Nolf 22
Megaludis 21
McIntosh 20
Nickal 18
Top 5 total - 109.5 points

2014 - PSU 109.5, Minnesota 104
Taylor 27
Ruth 24.5
Megaludis 15
Retherford 12
Brown 11
Top 5 total - 89.5 points
McIntosh 8.5
English 6.5
Top 7 total - 104.5 points

2013 - PSU 123.5, OK State 119.5
Ruth 26
Taylor 24
Wright 22
Brown 20
Megaludis 18.5
Top 5 total - 110.5 points
D Alton 5
Conaway 3.5
A Alton 2.5
Top 8 total - 121.5 points

2012 - PSU 143, Minnesota 117.5
Taylor 30.5
Ruth 27.5
Molinaro 23
Wright 21
Megaludis 18
Top 5 total - 120 points

2011 - PSU 107.5, Cornell 93.5
Taylor 22
Long 20.5
Ruth 20
Molinaro 20
Wright 20
Top 5 total - 102.5

Point scoring changed in 2013 I believe. Point totals are courtesy of the PSU wrestling club website.

I'm not sure you know what you got yourself into, now all you have to do is repeat this post 20,000 times between now and March, just to keep pace with the pull Hall's shirt crowd.