One man's view...combine with OP's post...
Dice’s OP was very thoughtful. My comments; 1) our guys will wrestle above their seed (on average), and 2) we’ll score more bonus points than our opponent. But anything can happen at the National Championships, where nothing is guaranteed, and bizarre things do happen.
Listen to Cael. Paraphrased, he says things like “no one will hand us the Championship”, “our guys need to step up and make it happen (when talking about team and individual results)”…among other things. A good listen are the Radio Shows…
Right now, on paper, Penn State and Okie State are neck-and-neck, with a rankings edge for Placement and Advancement Points to the Cowboys. But the matches aren’t wrestled on paper, so I’m giving the Nits the edge. Next are Ohio State, Iowa and Va Tech…with a significant drop after that to a senior-laden Nebraska team, and even the Mizzou Tigers and Big Red. Not enough firepower from those 3 though to become National Champ, my opinion, though one or two could displace any of the top-5, and maybe even reach the podium.
Oklahoma State is good, very good. Wrestle a great tournament, and they may well be 2017 Champs. Not much margin for error though, and that’s their problem. I wouldn’t call anyone on their team a bonus point machine, though Rogers (165) could go on a pin-binge, so beyond some first round wins of the bonus point variety, and maybe a couple in wrestle-backs…huge edge PSU. Then there’s Placement Points. Forget the rankings or seeds, they’re a bad indicator of NCAA finish, and anyone that uses them as gospel needs a history lesson. A Piccininni AA finish would be huge for the Cowboys, but I’m not optimistic that will happen. The rest of their guys have more down-side potential than upside. I’m a Kaid Brock fan, but he’s already at his upside (at #2), and his downside (with Clark, Tomasello, Micic, Montoya, Richards, Gross and a couple others) is more like 4th or 5th. Heil is at his upside (#1), and he’s one takedown or a ride-out, from 2nd or 3rd…not a fan of his style at all. Collica, too, is at his upside (#2), so can only fall. Smith may benefit (move up one spot) if Palacio goes 165, and he does have upside of 1 or 2 slots, so a couple points are possible. Rogers is a wildcard. A little upside (Placement) with lots of downside. He’s a pinner, so Bonus Points are likely, but a 7 minute match with the Lewis’, Cottrell’s, and Valencia’s of the world and he may not AA. Fringe AA, my opinion. Crutchmer (#5), Boyd (#6), Weigel (#4) and Schafer (#7) are all, in my opinion, at or really close to their highest possible finish. Their downside is far greater than any upside, and that loses valuable team points.
Ohio State has, on paper, the 2nd highest bonus point potential as a team. Odds are, recent problems at 125, losing Hayes, and Ryan’s performance at 157, in sum total, will be a placement point killer for tOSU. They’ve still got the 3 big dogs (Tomasello, Jordan, and Snyder), but they’re at they’re upside (all are #1), and 2 of those have major challenges, and BoJo’s health is an unknown. Little Jordan is the real deal, and I think his upside is high (he’s #5 now), so that’s a plus. Then there’s MyMar, but the chance the brackets will open up like the Red Sea again, plus considering his regular season performance, suggest he’s a 7/8 guy at best. They look like the 3rd best team, to me.
Iowa now has more upside than Ohio State, overall. Several of their guys lost at OSU, and were moved down, and I believe the three I’m referring to (Clark at #3, Sorensen at #3, and Stoll at #8), could all best their current ranking. Gilman, is their lone major bonus point contributor, so that is advantage Nits, and advantage Buckeyes. Gilman, Kemerer, and Brooks are at or really close to their upside, so any fall would be disastrous to the Hawks chances. Doubt they’ll get anything out of 141, 165, or 197…so quantity, not just quality, is a factor for them.