Obli's Observations, the big dance version

[Obliviax]

After doing my research, here is the game...

• PSU relies, heavily, on Jalen Pickett. Everyone knows that.
• TAMU will double-team him. He only scored 11 versus Purdue
• That leaves someone unguarded: Funk, Dredd, Wynter, etc. Who will step up? Can they?
• If someone steps up, the double teams will be less frequent freeing up Pickett.
• Funk and Pickett play more minutes, on average than any TAMU player.
• in the meantime, TAMU plays a much more team game although share a weakness with Bigs.
• PSU has two players that average more than 9 PPG, TAMU has five.
• Our best F or C, scoring-wise, is Kebba who averages 3.4 PPG. Our 7th best scorer on the team
• Their Best F or C is Colemen with Marble close behind at both 9.2 PPG
• TAMU has three players averaging over 5 rebounds per game. Two of them Fs
• PSU has two, both of them Gs (Pickett and Lundy)
• We average 4.4 steals a game, TAMU 6.8
• TAMU averages 12.6 assists per game, PSU exceeds that at almost 14
• PSU has SIX players averaging over 40% from the arc while TAMU has THREE. a Huge difference.
• PSU has four players averaging over 75% from the stripe while TAMU has SIX (not counting players with just a few minutes per game). Our top players who go to the stipe went there 110 and 105 times. TAMU has a top two of 192 and 184 times. This could be how games are officiated in a more physical B1G than in the SEC but this is a big disparity.
• Of the Bigs, only one guy is above 70% for free throws for either team (TAMU's Coleman). Fouling down low works to their advantage.

Conclusion?:

• History would show that PSU has to win from 3 point line
• PSU will struggle in the paint for rebounds, FT shooting and scoring.
• While TAMU is not great in the paint, they are much better than us both in scoring and rebounding. If it is a physical game played mostly in the paint, we are toast.
• If it turns into a game at the FT line, TAMU is also favored there. A lot depends on how the game is officiated but we can't allow a big disparity in charity shots

Notes: Not a lot of common opponents, if any, so disparities could simply be SOS and conference in-game culture. However, I think we need to be between 38% and 40% from the 3-point line to win. I also think that most of that will have to come from someone other than Pickett and they'll come in with the mindset to take him out. If someone like Funk or Lundy light it up early, it may take them out of that gameplan.

 

[ednit]

Good analysis. The first 2 games of the B1G tourney, we shot 61% from the FT line (31 of 51). Against Indy and Purdue we were 90%. I hope that part holds up on Thursday.

 

[slykens]

IMO PSU lost versus Purdue by being cold from behind the arc to open the game then by being inexperienced in how to handle the end of the game. The final sequence was painful to watch as they appeared to waste time then mishandled the final shot attempt. (Obviously the two 5+ minute scoring droughts didn't help but they almost overcame all of that at the end) I'm disappointed that they didn't win the game but excited by how hard they played during the tournament.

As someone on Reddit mentioned, Penn State is a bit of a unicorn in how they play - just as you described, everything runs through Pickett and if the perimeter shooters are hot it's going to be a long night for the opponent. Since they don't play like many/most teams, they're something unique to prepare for. I think that helps but certainly doesn't overcome the overall talent disparity.

 

[Obliviax]

IMO PSU lost versus Purdue by being cold from behind the arc to open the game then by being inexperienced in how to handle the end of the game. The final sequence was painful to watch as they appeared to waste time then mishandled the final shot attempt. (Obviously the two 5+ minute scoring droughts didn't help but they almost overcame all of that at the end) I'm disappointed that they didn't win the game but excited by how hard they played during the tournament.

As someone on Reddit mentioned, Penn State is a bit of a unicorn in how they play - just as you described, everything runs through Pickett and if the perimeter shooters are hot it's going to be a long night for the opponent. Since they don't play like many/most teams, they're something unique to prepare for. I think that helps but certainly doesn't overcome the overall talent disparity.

Agree...It is much more difficult to hit threes than layups in the paint, of course. So guards are a lot more prone to tightening up than bigs. And that is why good guards typically win regular season games but Bigs win the playoffs.

A lot depends on how the guards are mentally. Lets hope they come out loose and ready to have fun and NOT being afraid of missing shots. Let fly and see what happens. This is where Shrews has to play head games.

 

[PSU Soupy]

Agree...It is much more difficult to hit threes than layups in the paint, of course. So guards are a lot more prone to tightening up than bigs. And that is why good guards typically win regular season games but Bigs win the playoffs.

A lot depends on how the guards are mentally. Lets hope they come out loose and ready to have fun and NOT being afraid of missing shots. Let fly and see what happens. This is where Shrews has to play head games.

I agree with so much in your posts on this thread, but in my experience good guard play, especially good point guard plate is the most critical aspect of winning in tournament time. PSU has the good point guard play....which is a positive for us, but getting Texas A&M.....and then Texas in back to back games if we win number 1 is a tough road.

 

[indynittany]

Trap game for them. They want Texas.

I expect Pickett and Lundy to play well. If Wynter and Funk are feeling it, they can beat anybody.

 

[Obliviax]

Trap game for them. They want Texas.

I expect Pickett and Lundy to play well. If Wynter and Funk are feeling it, they can beat anybody.

I don't think so. They got passed over last year, after a 22-win season, and their coach caught hell for criticizing the NCAA for not selecting them. Last year, they lost in the NIT championship game to Xavier.

I don't know how a college basketball player would not be uber-motivated playing in the single-elimination NCAA tournament for the first time.

 

[The Spin Meister]

I don't think so. They got passed over last year, after a 22-win season, and their coach caught hell for criticizing the NCAA for not selecting them. Last year, they lost in the NIT championship game to Xavier.

I don't know how a college basketball player would not be uber-motivated playing in the single-elimination NCAA tournament for the first time.

True for most games in most areas. But this is Texas. It’s like it was once a whole different country. All the media, fans, students, social media…. Will all be about the Big Matchup!
Hopefully, get the players to brush off that unknown team from back East…..

 

[Obliviax]

True for most games in most areas. But this is Texas. It’s like it was once a whole different country. All the media, fans, students, social media…. Will all be about the Big Matchup!
Hopefully, get the players to brush off that unknown team from back East…..

If the players buy into that they deserve to lose. But I’d be shocked. This is a big game for them, as it is for every team

 

[bdgan]

After doing my research, here is the game...

• PSU relies, heavily, on Jalen Pickett. Everyone knows that.
• TAMU will double-team him. He only scored 11 versus Purdue
• That leaves someone unguarded: Funk, Dredd, Wynter, etc. Who will step up? Can they?
• If someone steps up, the double teams will be less frequent freeing up Pickett.
• Funk and Pickett play more minutes, on average than any TAMU player.
• in the meantime, TAMU plays a much more team game although share a weakness with Bigs.
• PSU has two players that average more than 9 PPG, TAMU has five.
• Our best F or C, scoring-wise, is Kebba who averages 3.4 PPG. Our 7th best scorer on the team
• Their Best F or C is Colemen with Marble close behind at both 9.2 PPG
• TAMU has three players averaging over 5 rebounds per game. Two of them Fs
• PSU has two, both of them Gs (Pickett and Lundy)
• We average 4.4 steals a game, TAMU 6.8
• TAMU averages 12.6 assists per game, PSU exceeds that at almost 14
• PSU has SIX players averaging over 40% from the arc while TAMU has THREE. a Huge difference.
• PSU has four players averaging over 75% from the stripe while TAMU has SIX (not counting players with just a few minutes per game). Our top players who go to the stipe went there 110 and 105 times. TAMU has a top two of 192 and 184 times. This could be how games are officiated in a more physical B1G than in the SEC but this is a big disparity.
• Of the Bigs, only one guy is above 70% for free throws for either team (TAMU's Coleman). Fouling down low works to their advantage.

Conclusion?:

• History would show that PSU has to win from 3 point line
• PSU will struggle in the paint for rebounds, FT shooting and scoring.
• While TAMU is not great in the paint, they are much better than us both in scoring and rebounding. If it is a physical game played mostly in the paint, we are toast.
• If it turns into a game at the FT line, TAMU is also favored there. A lot depends on how the game is officiated but we can't allow a big disparity in charity shots

Notes: Not a lot of common opponents, if any, so disparities could simply be SOS and conference in-game culture. However, I think we need to be between 38% and 40% from the 3-point line to win. I also think that most of that will have to come from someone other than Pickett and they'll come in with the mindset to take him out. If someone like Funk or Lundy light it up early, it may take them out of that gameplan.

I agree when Pickett can't get into the paint he also can't kick it out to perimeter shooters.

That said, I think Purdue was unique. Pickett could back his defender down in the paint but he still couldn't shoot over Edey. Same with Clary. He'd blow past his man but Edey would be there.

Purdue pressured the guards at the perimeter because they could rely on Edey if the got beat.

PSU has more than 2 players averaging 9 ppg.

Pickett 18
Lundy 14
Funk 12
Wynter 9

 

[bdgan]

ESPN gives us a 33% chance. We overcame similar odds before so we'll see what happens.

Crappy pairing due to crappy 10 seed.

 

[SR108]

After doing my research, here is the game...

• PSU relies, heavily, on Jalen Pickett. Everyone knows that.
• TAMU will double-team him. He only scored 11 versus Purdue
• That leaves someone unguarded: Funk, Dredd, Wynter, etc. Who will step up? Can they?
• If someone steps up, the double teams will be less frequent freeing up Pickett.
• Funk and Pickett play more minutes, on average than any TAMU player.
• in the meantime, TAMU plays a much more team game although share a weakness with Bigs.
• PSU has two players that average more than 9 PPG, TAMU has five.
• Our best F or C, scoring-wise, is Kebba who averages 3.4 PPG. Our 7th best scorer on the team
• Their Best F or C is Colemen with Marble close behind at both 9.2 PPG
• TAMU has three players averaging over 5 rebounds per game. Two of them Fs
• PSU has two, both of them Gs (Pickett and Lundy)
• We average 4.4 steals a game, TAMU 6.8
• TAMU averages 12.6 assists per game, PSU exceeds that at almost 14
• PSU has SIX players averaging over 40% from the arc while TAMU has THREE. a Huge difference.
• PSU has four players averaging over 75% from the stripe while TAMU has SIX (not counting players with just a few minutes per game). Our top players who go to the stipe went there 110 and 105 times. TAMU has a top two of 192 and 184 times. This could be how games are officiated in a more physical B1G than in the SEC but this is a big disparity.
• Of the Bigs, only one guy is above 70% for free throws for either team (TAMU's Coleman). Fouling down low works to their advantage.

Conclusion?:

• History would show that PSU has to win from 3 point line
• PSU will struggle in the paint for rebounds, FT shooting and scoring.
• While TAMU is not great in the paint, they are much better than us both in scoring and rebounding. If it is a physical game played mostly in the paint, we are toast.
• If it turns into a game at the FT line, TAMU is also favored there. A lot depends on how the game is officiated but we can't allow a big disparity in charity shots

Notes: Not a lot of common opponents, if any, so disparities could simply be SOS and conference in-game culture. However, I think we need to be between 38% and 40% from the 3-point line to win. I also think that most of that will have to come from someone other than Pickett and they'll come in with the mindset to take him out. If someone like Funk or Lundy light it up early, it may take them out of that gameplan.

The hell with research and analytics,

We win because, “WE ARE” !!

 

[LongJakk]

Ncaa games are typically called tighter than B1G games. The upshot is that the grabbing of our guys going around screens that we've endured all season should be lessened. Also, the continuous hacks on Picketts arms and arm bars to slow his drive in the lane should also get called in the tournament.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

we won the games at the end of the regular season with Lundy not playing well, then won the games in the BTT with Funk not doing much. the team is pretty deep i like their chances

 

[The Spin Meister]

Ncaa games are typically called tighter than B1G games. The upshot is that the grabbing of our guys going around screens that we've endured all season should be lessened. Also, the continuous hacks on Picketts arms and arm bars to slow his drive in the lane should also get called in the tournament.

But Pickett needs to be careful. The way he repeatedly pushes guys backwards to get position may draw a lot of calls. He may have to adapt quickly if the refs are calling a tighter game.

 

[Waltwam]

Trap game for them. They want Texas.

I expect Pickett and Lundy to play well. If Wynter and Funk are feeling it, they can beat anybody.

I really think Dread is going to be a key in moving forward. If he is confident and plays well (good shooting) it will make a huge difference and would be a big shot in the arm!

 

[indynittany]

I really think Dread is going to be a key in moving forward. If he is confident and plays well (good shooting) it will make a huge difference and would be a big shot in the arm!

Totally agree with Dread. He's a wild card offensively. If he's feeling it, look out!

This team has gotten contributions from a lot of guys, including the freshmen. I like that they'll be in the underdog role and they have senior leadership.

House money! No pressure. Have fun!