From the Review:
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Full report... Part One
On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys
August 16, 2014
by Bob Tisdale
NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for June 2014 included the bullet point under global highlights (my boldface):
Yikes, it sounds as though it’s a manmade global warming problem. But we know that’s not true because climate models doubled the warming rate of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3+ decades. So even record highs are much better than the temperatures anticipated by the latest and greatest climate models. As an advanced warning, NOAA will be making a similar statement for July 2014.
See the graphs to the right. (Click for full size.) The red horizontal lines are the July 2014 values. NOAA bases their discussions on the ERSST.v3b-based data (bottom graph). The satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2dataset (top graph) serves as a reference. Yup, it’s true. July 2014 global sea surface temperatures are the warmest on record, too.
In this post, we’ll present which ocean basin is showing the elevated sea surface temperature anomalies, and where they’re showing it, and provide what will likely be eventually reported as the reasons for those warm temperatures: strong trade winds and persistent high sea level pressures over eastern Siberia and Alaska.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE TWO NOAA GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY DATASETS DURING THE SATELLITE ERA
Figure 2 presents the monthly global sea surface temperature anomalies for the period of November 1981 to July 2014. The top graph shows the NOAA Reynolds OI.v2 data, which, as noted above, is a satellite-enhanced dataset. The bottom graph is the NOAA ERSST.v3bdata, which NOAA uses in its global land+ocean temperature dataset. ERSST.v3b is a statistically infilled sea surface temperature dataset. Anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010. The Reynolds OI.v2 and ERSST.v3b data are showing close to all-time-high values recently.
Figure 2
Before we move on to illustrating where and why the sea surface temperatures are elevated, there are a few things to discuss.
CLIMATE MODELS CANNOT SIMULATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
It must be kept in mind throughout this post that the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report basically doubled the observed warming rate of the surfaces of the global oceans. Doubled.
Figure 3
In other words, the model mean represents the central tendency of how the climate science community thinks the oceans should have warmed if they were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases, and, in the real world, the oceans only warmed at half that rate for the past 32+ years.
Or to phrase it a little differently, in the models, the warming of the surface of the oceans is forced by manmade greenhouse gases, but in the real world, the ocean surfaces are obviously not as sensitive to manmade greenhouse gases as the climate science community assumes.
Now consider that the data existed before the climate simulations were run. So modelers knew in advance the warming rate of the ocean surfaces for the most of that period.
The modelers knew the answers they were looking for, and somehow doubling the observed warming rate of the surfaces of the global oceans (70% of Earth’s surface) over the past 32 years was the best the modelers could do.
THE NORTH PACIFIC IS CREATING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
If you were to scroll through all the ocean basins presented in the July sea surface temperature update, you’d find that only the North Pacific has shown exceptional warming over the past year or so. But that one ocean basin has had a major impact on sea surface temperatures for the entire Pacific basin and the Northern Hemisphere, both of which are showing record highs recently. In turn, global sea surface temperatures are at record highs.
The North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies during the satellite era, along with the July 2014 value, are shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4
According to the NOAA webpage here, the North Pacific covers about 21% of the surface of the global oceans, or about 77 million sq. km. To put that into perspective, the North Pacific covers almost as much of the globe as Asia, Europe and North America combined (78.5 million sq. km.), so the North Pacific is a chunk of real estate.
Notice in Figure 4 how unusual that warming in 2013 and 2014 appears.
To illustrate how unusual that recent warming is, I determine how far back in time from December 2012 we could go without showing any appreciable warming in the sea surface temperature data of the North Pacific. See Figure 5. The sea surface temperature anomalies of the North Pacific showed basically no warming from January 1989 to December 2012. That 2 ½ decade lack of warming is quite remarkable in a world where greenhouse gases are supposed to be warming the surfaces of the oceans.
Figure 5
CLOSING
I’ve shown throughout this post that the sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific warm in shifts, the results of naturally occurring processes: ENSO and variations in sea level pressure. Not too surprisingly, those are processes climate models still cannot simulate to this day. Climate models will one day be a valuable resource, but we’ll have to wait until modelers can simulate naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that can cause warming of sea surfaces and the oceans to depth. We may be in for a long wait.
With the unusual warming events taking place recently in the North Pacific, global sea surface temperatures are at record high levels. Alarmists will attempt to use that to advance a political agenda. Unfortunately for those trying to advance those policies, climate models serve as the only support for human-induced global warming.
Their not-very-illustrious climate models cannot explain
Animation 2
That, of course, will not stop alarmists from making all sorts of nonsensical claims about the recent sea surface warming, and the mainstream media will join them on the bandwagon.
I’ve shown throughout this post that the sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific warm in shifts, the results of naturally occurring processes: ENSO and variations in sea level pressure. Not too surprisingly, those are processes climate models still cannot simulate to this day. Climate models will one day be a valuable resource, but we’ll have to wait until modelers can simulate naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that can cause warming of sea surfaces and the oceans to depth. We may be in for a long wait.
With the unusual warming events taking place recently in the North Pacific, global sea surface temperatures are at record high levels. Alarmists will attempt to use that to advance a political agenda. Unfortunately for those trying to advance those policies, climate models serve as the only support for human-induced global warming.
Their not-very-illustrious climate models cannot explain
- why sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific have warmed at a much lower rate than anticipated during the satellite era, and
- the models cannot explain why the surfaces of the North Pacific stopped warming for almost ¼ of a century. See Animation 2.
Animation 2
That, of course, will not stop alarmists from making all sorts of nonsensical claims about the recent sea surface warming, and the mainstream media will join them on the bandwagon.
==========
Full report... Part One
On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys
August 16, 2014
by Bob Tisdale
NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for June 2014 included the bullet point under global highlights (my boldface):
For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.
Yikes, it sounds as though it’s a manmade global warming problem. But we know that’s not true because climate models doubled the warming rate of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3+ decades. So even record highs are much better than the temperatures anticipated by the latest and greatest climate models. As an advanced warning, NOAA will be making a similar statement for July 2014.
See the graphs to the right. (Click for full size.) The red horizontal lines are the July 2014 values. NOAA bases their discussions on the ERSST.v3b-based data (bottom graph). The satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2dataset (top graph) serves as a reference. Yup, it’s true. July 2014 global sea surface temperatures are the warmest on record, too.In this post, we’ll present which ocean basin is showing the elevated sea surface temperature anomalies, and where they’re showing it, and provide what will likely be eventually reported as the reasons for those warm temperatures: strong trade winds and persistent high sea level pressures over eastern Siberia and Alaska.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE TWO NOAA GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY DATASETS DURING THE SATELLITE ERA
Figure 2 presents the monthly global sea surface temperature anomalies for the period of November 1981 to July 2014. The top graph shows the NOAA Reynolds OI.v2 data, which, as noted above, is a satellite-enhanced dataset. The bottom graph is the NOAA ERSST.v3bdata, which NOAA uses in its global land+ocean temperature dataset. ERSST.v3b is a statistically infilled sea surface temperature dataset. Anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010. The Reynolds OI.v2 and ERSST.v3b data are showing close to all-time-high values recently.
Figure 2
Before we move on to illustrating where and why the sea surface temperatures are elevated, there are a few things to discuss.
CLIMATE MODELS CANNOT SIMULATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
It must be kept in mind throughout this post that the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report basically doubled the observed warming rate of the surfaces of the global oceans. Doubled.
Figure 3
In other words, the model mean represents the central tendency of how the climate science community thinks the oceans should have warmed if they were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases, and, in the real world, the oceans only warmed at half that rate for the past 32+ years.
Or to phrase it a little differently, in the models, the warming of the surface of the oceans is forced by manmade greenhouse gases, but in the real world, the ocean surfaces are obviously not as sensitive to manmade greenhouse gases as the climate science community assumes.
Now consider that the data existed before the climate simulations were run. So modelers knew in advance the warming rate of the ocean surfaces for the most of that period.
- That is, most of simulations from 1981 to present are hindcasts, not forecasts.
The modelers knew the answers they were looking for, and somehow doubling the observed warming rate of the surfaces of the global oceans (70% of Earth’s surface) over the past 32 years was the best the modelers could do.
- That’s climate science in a nutshell.
THE NORTH PACIFIC IS CREATING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
If you were to scroll through all the ocean basins presented in the July sea surface temperature update, you’d find that only the North Pacific has shown exceptional warming over the past year or so. But that one ocean basin has had a major impact on sea surface temperatures for the entire Pacific basin and the Northern Hemisphere, both of which are showing record highs recently. In turn, global sea surface temperatures are at record highs.
The North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies during the satellite era, along with the July 2014 value, are shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4
According to the NOAA webpage here, the North Pacific covers about 21% of the surface of the global oceans, or about 77 million sq. km. To put that into perspective, the North Pacific covers almost as much of the globe as Asia, Europe and North America combined (78.5 million sq. km.), so the North Pacific is a chunk of real estate.
Notice in Figure 4 how unusual that warming in 2013 and 2014 appears.
- BEFORE 2013, THE SURFACE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC HAD NOT WARMED FOR 24 YEARS
To illustrate how unusual that recent warming is, I determine how far back in time from December 2012 we could go without showing any appreciable warming in the sea surface temperature data of the North Pacific. See Figure 5. The sea surface temperature anomalies of the North Pacific showed basically no warming from January 1989 to December 2012. That 2 ½ decade lack of warming is quite remarkable in a world where greenhouse gases are supposed to be warming the surfaces of the oceans.
Figure 5
