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OSU will be in the CFP

okinburg1

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Nov 19, 2004
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Looking at the rankings that came out last night in some detail, I now have my sad realization face on. :(

Alabama (1) wins out - they're in.
Clemson (2) and Miami (3) win out until they meet in the ACC championship - winner in and loser out.
Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in.
Wisconsin (5) loses to either UM or, more likely, OSU - they're out.
Auburn (6) - loses to Alabama - they're out (3 losses).
Georgia (7) - doesn't jump anyone w/no ranked teams left to play - they're out.
ND (8) - doesn't jump anyone as UGA loss doesn't look so good anymore - they're out.
OSU (9) - potential wins against ranked UM and highly ranked Wisconsin - win out and they're in.

One man's (sad) prediction. If ND wins out (which includes ranked Stanford on the road), they might stay ahead of OSU, but my guess is that if OSU wins out their B1G championship win will carry more weight with the committee and they will jump ND and be in at #4.

Thoughts/counter-arguments/musings?
 
Looking at the rankings that came out last night in some detail, I now have my sad realization face on. :(

Alabama (1) wins out - they're in.
Clemson (2) and Miami (3) win out until they meet in the ACC championship - winner in and loser out.
Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in.
Wisconsin (5) loses to either UM or, more likely, OSU - they're out.
Auburn (6) - loses to Alabama - they're out (3 losses).
Georgia (7) - doesn't jump anyone w/no ranked teams left to play - they're out.
ND (8) - doesn't jump anyone as UGA loss doesn't look so good anymore - they're out.
OSU (9) - potential wins against ranked UM and highly ranked Wisconsin - win out and they're in.

One man's (sad) prediction. If ND wins out (which includes ranked Stanford on the road), they might stay ahead of OSU, but my guess is that if OSU wins out their B1G championship win will carry more weight with the committee and they will jump ND and be in at #4.

Thoughts/counter-arguments/musings?
Loser of UM Wisky is out unless UW loses this weekend but beats tOSU in a championship game. UM may not be ranked with they play tOSU as they probably do lose on the road this weekend as they really aren't not good on offense and Wisky has a defense. The iron bowl will be huge this year because AUB would only have 1 loss in conference play and one to Clemson by a TD. If they win out, they get in as Bama will be like tOSU last year. One loss with no title, but name gets them in.
 
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Loser of UM Wisky is out unless UW loses this weekend but beats tOSU in a championship game. UM may not be ranked with they play tOSU as they probably do lose on the road this weekend as they really aren't not good on offense and Wisky has a defense. The iron bowl will be huge this year because AUB would only have 1 loss in conference play and one to Clemson by a TD. If they win out, they get in as Bama will be like tOSU last year. One loss with no title, but name gets them in.
I will be very pleased if OSU does NOT make the CFP. Guess I'm bracing myself for that scenario, just in case.
 
I will be very pleased if OSU does NOT make the CFP. Guess I'm bracing myself for that scenario, just in case.
I don't see how they can. Remember last year when our second loss which was early on was a blowout...well tOSU lost much later and were whooped up on for the nation to see. 2 loss SEC school will get in over them and even ND possibly. If not the committee looks like a bunch of hypocrites. OU looks like they are in. SEC champ will be in...Aub or Bama. Clemson will be in. Miami could be in or the second team from the SEC. If Wisky wins out, they are in. UGa also has a shot to win out and go over tOSU. I don't see tOSU getting in this year, they got killed just 2 weeks ago and lost at home already once this year.
 
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I cant believe OSU could get in over PSU. We beat them last year and they go in. They beat us by 1 at home playing a perfect 2nd half and they are in? I know we blew it with a loss to MSU but there is no way they are a better team than PSU. Btw, i dont thi k either deserves to be in, but least of all OSU. If That game we lost was on a nuetral field we win going away
 
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wiscy beat Michigan and and then an OSU win over Michigan is not that big of a deal.

Georgia beats Bama and both those teams are in.

Miami and Clemson play a very close game and Clemson with 2 losses gets in over OSU with 2 losses.
 
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Interesting scenario the OP points out and it is probably not as implausible as it may seem. That said, I don't see it happening. I do wonder though, what would be "worse" for OSU - not getting into the playoff and going to a New Years Six bowl (not a bad consolation prize) or sneaking into the playoff and getting blown out, adding to the list of blowouts to Clemson, OU and Iowa?
 
I think you're right. No way they want the Big completely shut out after all the talking heads spent so much time arguing it's the best conference. I remember one person talking about the committee one time saying that power programs are looked at favorably. Bama and OSU lead that list along with ND and USC following. OSU wins out and beats Wisky, they are in.
 
No two-loss team has ever made the playoffs. Its a fairly short history and that isn't an absolute. But that is what history tells us.
 
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If OSU wins out, I'd agree....and it would be hard to deny the champion of the best conference top to bottom a spot given that they would have wins over PSU, MSU, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Key here is they'd have a conference championship, which likely acts as a tiebreaker if there are other 2 loss teams fighting for the last playoff spot.
 
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Looking at the rankings that came out last night in some detail, I now have my sad realization face on. :(

Alabama (1) wins out - they're in.
Clemson (2) and Miami (3) win out until they meet in the ACC championship - winner in and loser out.
Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in.
Wisconsin (5) loses to either UM or, more likely, OSU - they're out.
Auburn (6) - loses to Alabama - they're out (3 losses).
Georgia (7) - doesn't jump anyone w/no ranked teams left to play - they're out.
ND (8) - doesn't jump anyone as UGA loss doesn't look so good anymore - they're out.
OSU (9) - potential wins against ranked UM and highly ranked Wisconsin - win out and they're in.

One man's (sad) prediction. If ND wins out (which includes ranked Stanford on the road), they might stay ahead of OSU, but my guess is that if OSU wins out their B1G championship win will carry more weight with the committee and they will jump ND and be in at #4.

Thoughts/counter-arguments/musings?

Georgia is going to play a top 5 team in the SEC title game..
 
There are three undesirable scenarios, no one really wants to see:
1. 2-loss team - hasn't been done yet
2. Non-conference winner, OSU was the first last year.
3. Two teams from same conference - not done yet

Last year's PSU victory forced either #1 or #2 to happen, #3 was not likely.

This year, any one or all 3 could happen.

2-loss team (Auburn, Clemson or OSU)
Non-conference winner (Alabama or Miami, I don't see a 2-loss nonconference winner getting in)
2 teams from same conference (SEC likely, not ACC, no way B1G)
 
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Looking at the rankings that came out last night in some detail, I now have my sad realization face on. :(

Alabama (1) wins out - they're in.
Clemson (2) and Miami (3) win out until they meet in the ACC championship - winner in and loser out.
Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in.
Wisconsin (5) loses to either UM or, more likely, OSU - they're out.
Auburn (6) - loses to Alabama - they're out (3 losses).
Georgia (7) - doesn't jump anyone w/no ranked teams left to play - they're out.
ND (8) - doesn't jump anyone as UGA loss doesn't look so good anymore - they're out.
OSU (9) - potential wins against ranked UM and highly ranked Wisconsin - win out and they're in.

One man's (sad) prediction. If ND wins out (which includes ranked Stanford on the road), they might stay ahead of OSU, but my guess is that if OSU wins out their B1G championship win will carry more weight with the committee and they will jump ND and be in at #4.

Thoughts/counter-arguments/musings?

I think ND winning at Stanford would be enough to keep them as the top 2-loss team (over Ohio State). You could even consider ND as a pseudo-Pac 12 champion, especially if Stanford and USC play for the Pac 12 Championship (ND having wins over both).

I think 2-loss ND would go over 1-loss Big Ten Championship loser Wisconsin (though not 0- or 1-loss Big Ten Championship winner Wisconsin). I think 1-loss ACC Championship loser Miami makes the playoff in most scenarios (especially with that win against ND).

I think Ohio State needs 3-loss ND, 3-loss Pac 12 Champion (though Ohio State could get the nod over USC if they both win their conferences with 2 losses), 2+-loss ACC Championship loser Clemson (or 2+-loss ACC Championship loser Miami), and 2-loss SEC Championship loser Georgia (to Alabama) in order to get in the playoff. That's certainly all feasible, but not likely.

With all of that along with Michigan beating Wisconsin and Ohio State, Penn State has a breath of a chance at the playoff, though I think the champion of the Big Ten (Ohio State) or Pac 12 (Stanford or USC) would actually get the spot, even at 3 losses.
 
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There are three undesirable scenarios, no one really wants to see:
1. 2-loss team - hasn't been done yet
2. Non-conference winner, OSU was the first last year.
3. Two teams from same conference - not done yet

Last year's PSU victory forced either #1 or #2 to happen, #3 was not likely.

This year, any one or all 3 could happen.

2-loss team (Auburn, Clemson or OSU)
Non-conference winner (Alabama or Miami, I don't see a 2-loss nonconference winner getting in)
2 teams from same conference (SEC likely, not ACC, no way B1G)
OSU better not get in. The precedent has been set with PSU last year. Fine. But they better not change their criteria just to get OSU in.

I. WILL. LOSE. IT. IF. THAT. HAPPENS.

And Wexford, I’m not interested in your bullshit rationalizations. OSU got CRUSHED twice. CRUSHED.
 
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I cant believe OSU could get in over PSU. We beat them last year and they go in. They beat us by 1 at home playing a perfect 2nd half and they are in? I know we blew it with a loss to MSU but there is no way they are a better team than PSU. Btw, i dont thi k either deserves to be in, but least of all OSU. If That game we lost was on a nuetral field we win going away

You may have lost by 1 point but you were outgained 529 to 283 yards. That game on a neutral field and you might win, but you also could lose by a couple scores.

Fact neither team is deserving of getting in right now with OSU firmly ahead of you. When it's all said and done though Buckeyes will get in with some help. Go Canes, Go Tide
 
Looking at the rankings that came out last night in some detail, I now have my sad realization face on. :(

Alabama (1) wins out - they're in.
Clemson (2) and Miami (3) win out until they meet in the ACC championship - winner in and loser out.
Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in.
Wisconsin (5) loses to either UM or, more likely, OSU - they're out.
Auburn (6) - loses to Alabama - they're out (3 losses).
Georgia (7) - doesn't jump anyone w/no ranked teams left to play - they're out.
ND (8) - doesn't jump anyone as UGA loss doesn't look so good anymore - they're out.
OSU (9) - potential wins against ranked UM and highly ranked Wisconsin - win out and they're in.

One man's (sad) prediction. If ND wins out (which includes ranked Stanford on the road), they might stay ahead of OSU, but my guess is that if OSU wins out their B1G championship win will carry more weight with the committee and they will jump ND and be in at #4.

Thoughts/counter-arguments/musings?


I predicted OSU's loss to IOWA and I predict they lose to Michigan...this is payback for LY besides being the rivalry that it is...
 
Interesting scenario the OP points out and it is probably not as implausible as it may seem. That said, I don't see it happening. I do wonder though, what would be "worse" for OSU - not getting into the playoff and going to a New Years Six bowl (not a bad consolation prize) or sneaking into the playoff and getting blown out, adding to the list of blowouts to Clemson, OU and Iowa?
Always happy to see OSU get blown out, under any circumstances. :)
 
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No two-loss team has ever made the playoffs. Its a fairly short history and that isn't an absolute. But that is what history tells us.
This may be the year where they are only 3 teams with no or only one loss, so a 2 loss team would have to make the CFP. Only a matter of time until it happens.
 
Michigan would have a decent claim as a 2 loss team if the finish with wins over Wisconsin & O$U. That's not likely to happen but if it did...
 
wiscy beat Michigan and and then an OSU win over Michigan is not that big of a deal.

Georgia beats Bama and both those teams are in.

Miami and Clemson play a very close game and Clemson with 2 losses gets in over OSU with 2 losses.
This is the answer.

Alabama loses SEC championship but finishes 12-1.

Two SEC teams get in (Georgia,Alabama)

ACC 1 loss champ gets in (Clemson/Miami)

Big 12 1 loss Oklahoma gets in.

So a 1 loss Alabama pushes out a 2 loss OSU. Sweet
 
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OSU better not get in. The precedent has been set with PSU last year. Fine. But they better not chage their criteria just to get OSU in.

I. WILL. LOSE. IT. IF. THAT. HAPPENS.

And Wexford, I’m not interested in your bullshit rationalizations. OSU got CRUSHED twice. CRUSHED.

I, like you, don't see how OSU can get in. I posted that in another thread. They got BOMBED not once, but twice. I'd say Penn State has a better resume this year, they just can't get to that dang Big 10 title game.

These are all arguments why you have to get to 8 or 16 teams.
 
There are three undesirable scenarios, no one really wants to see:
1. 2-loss team - hasn't been done yet
2. Non-conference winner, OSU was the first last year.
3. Two teams from same conference - not done yet

Last year's PSU victory forced either #1 or #2 to happen, #3 was not likely.

This year, any one or all 3 could happen.

2-loss team (Auburn, Clemson or OSU)
Non-conference winner (Alabama or Miami, I don't see a 2-loss nonconference winner getting in)
2 teams from same conference (SEC likely, not ACC, no way B1G)

I'm with you here. There's a first time for everything. Let's assume Auburn wins out. Not improbable given the way they're playing. They finish 11-2 with loses to Clemson and LSU. Let's also assume Clemson wins out. Not improbable because of Miami's SOS. And so we are left with Clemson, SEC champ Auburn, OU and a one-loss Alabama. A one-loss Alabama trumps a two-blowout loss tOSU. USC will also be 'on the outside looking in' due to the blowout loss at ND. Therefore, I can conceive two P5 conference being left out, Pac12 and Big Ten. Let's face it, Auburn has the hot hand right now. And I'm not sold on Miami being that good. Put them on a neutral field against 8 teams and they wouldn't be favored.
 
This is the answer.

Alabama loses SEC championship but finishes 12-1.

Two SEC teams get in (Georgia,Alabama)

ACC 1 loss champ gets in (Clemson/Miami)

Big 12 1 loss Oklahoma gets in.

So a 1 loss Alabama pushes out a 2 loss OSU. Sweet

I believe Alabama doesn't have to get to the SEC Championship game in order to get in. It trumps tOSU with a record of 11-1. Providing it doesn't get blown out in the Iron Bowl.
 
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You may have lost by 1 point but you were outgained 529 to 283 yards. That game on a neutral field and you might win, but you also could lose by a couple scores.

Fact neither team is deserving of getting in right now with OSU firmly ahead of you. When it's all said and done though Buckeyes will get in with some help. Go Canes, Go Tide

Haha! Right, when all else fails trot out the old we-got-a-lot-more-yards-than-you argument. Not buying it, man. According to that reasoning, Miami won the 1986 national championship.

Listen, I give Ohio State credit for coming back late in the fourth quarter at home to beat a thoroughly gassed Penn State team by one point. But in fact, at this moment in the season, if facts and logic meant anything, the CFP rankings of our teams would be reversed, with Penn State ahead of Ohio State.

We lose by one point on the road against a top-10 team and the very next week, still emotionally hung over from that heartbreak, lose by a field goal on the road against a (then) top-15 team. You guys get blown out at home by a top-10 team and get massacred on the road by Iowa. This is not even a close call.

Alright, IF y'all win out the rest of the way, then no question, you'll earn a ranking ahead of Penn State. Even then, however, you don't belong in the playoff without a LOT of help. But as we know, logic and facts and consistency and fairness are only secondary concerns in this process. Politics rules, and Ohio State is always on the right side of the politics. Penn State...not so much...
 
You may have lost by 1 point but you were outgained 529 to 283 yards. That game on a neutral field and you might win, but you also could lose by a couple scores.

Fact neither team is deserving of getting in right now with OSU firmly ahead of you. When it's all said and done though Buckeyes will get in with some help. Go Canes, Go Tide

Dream on! An 11-1 Bama will get in ahead of younz. And it's probable given the hot hand right now is Auburn. Face it. Ahia State is out. As is ND. As is USC. Out.
 
I believe Alabama doesn't have to get to the SEC Championship game in order to get in. It trumps tOSU with a record of 11-1. Providing it doesn't get blown out in the Iron Bowl.
That would be great. Hadn't thought about Alabama at 11-1 losing to Auburn and then getting into the final 4 but it makes sense. Again Alabama bias over rides OSU bias and OSU having 2 blow out loses.

Watch out though, Gene Smith OSU AD is on the committee.
 
Haha! Right, when all else fails trot out the old we-got-a-lot-more-yards-than-you argument. Not buying it, man. According to that reasoning, Miami won the 1986 national championship.

Listen, I give Ohio State credit for coming back late in the fourth quarter at home to beat a thoroughly gassed Penn State team by one point. But in fact, at this moment in the season, if facts and logic meant anything, the CFP rankings of our teams would be reversed, with Penn State ahead of Ohio State.

We lose by one point on the road against a top-10 team and the very next week, still emotionally hung over from that heartbreak, lose by a field goal on the road against a (then) top-15 team. You guys get blown out at home by a top-10 team and get massacred on the road by Iowa. This is not even a close call.

Alright, IF y'all win out the rest of the way, then no question, you'll earn a ranking ahead of Penn State. Even then, however, you don't belong in the playoff without a LOT of help. But as we know, logic and facts and consistency and fairness are only secondary concerns in this process. Politics rules, and Ohio State is always on the right side of the politics. Penn State...not so much...

All else fails??? Nothing failed, we beat you!!! I don't need excuses when referring to that game because WE WON. You saying you should get effort points because it was close and I'm saying you were lucky it was that close. In fact (I don't think you know what that word means by the way you use it) the only thing that matters is we won and you lost.

We have the same record, with a head to head win. If you actually think PSU is better or should be ranked ahead of OSU as of right now you're just a giant homer.
 
Dream on! An 11-1 Bama will get in ahead of younz. And it's probable given the hot hand right now is Auburn. Face it. Ahia State is out. As is ND. As is USC. Out.

I am fully aware that Bama will be ahead of us with 1 loss and haven;t claimed otherwise. In fact I wrote how we will all be supporting Bama and Miami from here on out.

We're def not out though. Auburn is the only 2 loss team ahead of us and they're about to get loss #3 pretty soon.
 
I think ND winning at Stanford would be enough to keep them as the top 2-loss team (over Ohio State). You could even consider ND as a pseudo-Pac 12 champion, especially if Stanford and USC play for the Pac 12 Championship (ND having wins over both).

I think 2-loss ND would go over 1-loss Big Ten Championship loser Wisconsin (though not 0- or 1-loss Big Ten Championship winner Wisconsin). I think 1-loss ACC Championship loser Miami makes the playoff in most scenarios (especially with that win against ND).

I think Ohio State needs 3-loss ND, 3-loss Pac 12 Champion (though Ohio State could get the nod over USC if they both win their conferences with 2 losses), 2+-loss ACC Championship loser Clemson (or 2+-loss ACC Championship loser Miami), and 2-loss SEC Championship loser Georgia (to Alabama) in order to get in the playoff. That's certainly all feasible, but not likely.

With all of that along with Michigan beating Wisconsin and Ohio State, Penn State has a breath of a chance at the playoff, though I think the champion of the Big Ten (Ohio State) or Pac 12 (Stanford or USC) would actually get the spot, even at 3 losses.

1. Clemson
2. OU
3. Auburn
4. Bama

It's not inconceivable given how hot Auburn is right now. And I'm not sold on Miami. That leaves The Ahia State on the outside looking in. I hate to admit it but as The Ahia State goes so goes PSU. We're riding their coat tails. The higher their ranking the higher ours.
 
Pretty simple.

0-Alabama (1) wins out - they're in (@ Auburn, *Georgia?)
1-Clemson (2) wins out - they're in. (SCar, *Miami)
0-Miami (3) wins out - they're in. (*Clemson)
1-Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in. (*TCU)
0-Wisconsin (5) wins out - they're in. (Michigan, *O$U)
2-Auburn (6) - wins out - they're in. (Alabama, *Georgia?)
1-Georgia (7) - wins out - they're in. (GTech, *Bama/Aub)

2-ND (8) – needs a lot of help! (@ Stanford)
2-OSU (9) – wins out – they’re in? (@ Mich, *Wisconsin)
2-PSU (10) – needs a lot of help!
2-USC (11) – needs a lot of help! (*Stanford?)

*League Championship Game
 
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I am fully aware that Bama will be ahead of us with 1 loss and haven;t claimed otherwise. In fact I wrote how we will all be supporting Bama and Miami from here on out.

We're def not out though. Auburn is the only 2 loss team ahead of us and they're about to get loss #3 pretty soon.

Fair enough. You should take the time to watch the Auburn-Georgia game.
 
You may have lost by 1 point but you were outgained 529 to 283 yards. That game on a neutral field and you might win, but you also could lose by a couple scores.

Fact neither team is deserving of getting in right now with OSU firmly ahead of you. When it's all said and done though Buckeyes will get in with some help. Go Canes, Go Tide

OSU is not "firmly" ahead of PSU. Yards gained aren't points in the board. 1 point is 1 point. The facts are OSU lost 2 games in non-competitive fashion (one at home and one to a CFP non-ranked team in extreme fashion - in the same environment where PSU won). PSU has lost 2 games in competitive fashion (both to CFP ranked teams on the road). The MSU was impressive win but at home. And the rest of OSU's blowouts were against very weak opponents.

PSU and OSU should be basically dead even...at this point. If OSU beats Mich and Wisc for the B10 champ then yes OSU will then be firmly ahead of PSU.
 
Looking at the rankings that came out last night in some detail, I now have my sad realization face on. :(

Alabama (1) wins out - they're in.
Clemson (2) and Miami (3) win out until they meet in the ACC championship - winner in and loser out.
Oklahoma (4) wins out - they're in.
Wisconsin (5) loses to either UM or, more likely, OSU - they're out.
Auburn (6) - loses to Alabama - they're out (3 losses).
Georgia (7) - doesn't jump anyone w/no ranked teams left to play - they're out.
ND (8) - doesn't jump anyone as UGA loss doesn't look so good anymore - they're out.
OSU (9) - potential wins against ranked UM and highly ranked Wisconsin - win out and they're in.

One man's (sad) prediction. If ND wins out (which includes ranked Stanford on the road), they might stay ahead of OSU, but my guess is that if OSU wins out their B1G championship win will carry more weight with the committee and they will jump ND and be in at #4.

Thoughts/counter-arguments/musings?

I'd be fine with OSU getting in...Barrett likely has another flop on national TV and PSU gets a shot against a quality opponent in the NY6 bowl. PSU comes out better looking like they did last year.
 
OSU is not "firmly" ahead of PSU. Yards gained aren't points in the board. 1 point is 1 point. The facts are OSU lost 2 games in non-competitive fashion (one at home and one to a CFP non-ranked team in extreme fashion - in the same environment where PSU won). PSU has lost 2 games in competitive fashion (both to CFP ranked teams on the road). The MSU was impressive win but at home. And the rest of OSU's blowouts were against very weak opponents.

PSU and OSU should be basically dead even...at this point. If OSU beats Mich and Wisc for the B10 champ then yes OSU will then be firmly ahead of PSU.

Basically dead even yes they are, it's why we're ranked right next to each other. When I say firmly I just mean you can't be ranked ahead of us until we lose a game. With the same record and head to head loss, there's a clear choice who to rank higher I'm just reiterating that.
 
All else fails??? Nothing failed, we beat you!!! I don't need excuses when referring to that game because WE WON. You saying you should get effort points because it was close and I'm saying you were lucky it was that close. In fact (I don't think you know what that word means by the way you use it) the only thing that matters is we won and you lost.

We have the same record, with a head to head win. If you actually think PSU is better or should be ranked ahead of OSU as of right now you're just a giant homer.

I don't know if we're better but hell yes, we should be ranked ahead of you at this moment in the season for the reasons I gave.

As for your statement that "the only thing that matters is that we won and you lost," yes, except for some odd reason that didn't matter so much last year, remember? Oh wait, that's right, it didn't matter last year because of our blowout loss to Michigan. Except this year your team got blown out to a lesser team than Michigan, but apparently that doesn't matter now either.

It's all so confusing. Well not really. There's actually a simple explanation: Ohio State is on the right side of the politics. Penn State...not so much. If you don't see that obvious reality, then you must be a giant homer.
 
This is the answer.

Alabama loses SEC championship but finishes 12-1.

Two SEC teams get in (Georgia,Alabama)

ACC 1 loss champ gets in (Clemson/Miami)

Big 12 1 loss Oklahoma gets in.

So a 1 loss Alabama pushes out a 2 loss OSU. Sweet

Bama is not losing...Clemson game last year has them...angry...Don't think Miami loses either...

Bama , Miami , Oklahoma and 4th ( could very well be Wisconsin ...).

OSU out after losing to Michigan...
 
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