OT: Irma track
- Thread starter LionJim
- Start date
Katrina pounded Mississippi but in NO it was a failure of the levy's and the city's infrastructure that created the most damage that contributed more than anything to that disaster. FNN didn't report much on Harvey until it was right up on the coast. It came out of nowhere. They were much to focused on Russia as was MSNBC.
If you are going to MSNBC or CNN for your weather then you have a lot more problems than that... National and Global weather centers are predicting anything more than the potential for this to be one of the worst storms to ever hit the US. If this storm comes up through the Leeward Islands (The Bahamas) there will be devastation that will rival Harvey (and not from a water perspective). We should all be hoping this gets pushed further North and then pulled out to sea... and there is another storm hot on Irma's heels as well.
You're right, I don't. Jose is drafting on Irma and there is a third disturbance just coming off the African coast.
I saw a longer-term prediction this morning, where it made a dogleg at Havana and continued on to pass over Tampa Bay. It's not going to be pretty.
Massive storm. Hope people evacuate and/or or take major precautions, to be safe.
For some historical perspective, from the web...
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Labor Day Hurricane 1935
– Most Intense On Record
September 4, 2017
On Labor Day, 1935 the Florida Keys
were hit by a category 5 hurricane with 185 MPH winds.
The storm then went up the coast and flooded North Carolina and Maryland.
06 Sep 1935, Page 1 – The Express at Newspapers.com
This came a few weeks after
the worst dust storm and
most intense rainfall on record.
On May 31, 1935 Woodward Ranch, Texas set the world record with 22 inches of rain in less than three hours.
Colorado got nearly that much rain a few hours earlier.
Extreme Weather: A Guide & Record Book – Christopher C. Burt – Google Books
CO2 was 305 PPM at the time. If we had a repeat of 1935 weather, "experts" would say they were 100% certain it was due to 400 PPM CO2.
– Most Intense On Record
September 4, 2017
On Labor Day, 1935 the Florida Keys
were hit by a category 5 hurricane with 185 MPH winds.
The storm then went up the coast and flooded North Carolina and Maryland.
06 Sep 1935, Page 1 – The Express at Newspapers.com
This came a few weeks after
the worst dust storm and
most intense rainfall on record.
On May 31, 1935 Woodward Ranch, Texas set the world record with 22 inches of rain in less than three hours.
Colorado got nearly that much rain a few hours earlier.
Extreme Weather: A Guide & Record Book – Christopher C. Burt – Google Books
CO2 was 305 PPM at the time. If we had a repeat of 1935 weather, "experts" would say they were 100% certain it was due to 400 PPM CO2.
Hurricane expert:
‘#Irma should reach 200 mph winds’
Posted by Anthony Watts
Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says today:
190 mph is the record in the Atlantic, for Hurricane Allen in 1980:
‘#Irma should reach 200 mph winds’
Posted by Anthony Watts
Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says today:
Eye continues to warm now +20°C … if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma should reach 200 mph.
190 mph is the record in the Atlantic, for Hurricane Allen in 1980:
Allen is the only hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (305 km/h),[nb 1] thus making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed.
Until Hurricane Patricia in 2015, this was also the highest sustained winds in the entire Western Hemisphere.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-expert-irma-should-reach-200-mph-winds/Until Hurricane Patricia in 2015, this was also the highest sustained winds in the entire Western Hemisphere.
I'm in Sarasota also. Went to Home Depot on Cattleman this morning. It was crazy with all the plywood and lumber being purchased.
Hurricane expert:
‘#Irma should reach 200 mph winds’
Posted by Anthony Watts
Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says today:
Eye continues to warm now +20°C … if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma should reach 200 mph.
190 mph is the record in the Atlantic, for Hurricane Allen in 1980:
Allen is the only hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (305 km/h),[nb 1] thus making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed.https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-expert-irma-should-reach-200-mph-winds/
Until Hurricane Patricia in 2015, this was also the highest sustained winds in the entire Western Hemisphere.
Hey TJ, you kept me updated through Matthew last year so please keep posting info as you get it. It's appreciated.
I have beach front property in northern Florida and want to be prepared for the worst. Thanks
With each passing day the probability will either rise or fall. I hope like hell it turns, but if that is 30% today, it could easily be 50% in 2 days. Basically people cannot wait until Friday in So Florida to bail...even if it misses.
I suppose you're missing the point. It is not 30%. It never was. That prediction was made 4 days ago based on one scenario.
Even if it is 100% people can get out in plenty of time for Friday.
LdN
As of 5pm today:
Looks as if we'll miss the worst case scenario (i.e., getting stronger and wetter over the Gulf).
Looks as if we'll miss the worst case scenario (i.e., getting stronger and wetter over the Gulf).
Satellite loops of Irma can be seen here:
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.co...ical-atlantic/tropical-west-atlantic-vis.html
bwifan
Well-Known Member
Sorry don't share the Euro runs.... You have to pay a nice chunk of change to get access and they are quite aggressive in protecting their rights on their model going after people who post images without their consent
bwifan
Well-Known Member
Unless you are in the keys... takes up to 3 days to evacuate and sounds like they are looking at starting tomorrow. Large vacation week and even with the roads all 1 way leading out too many people they start with Key West and work North from Key to Key
What's up with the UKM model (purple line). Unless the storm jumps immediately NE 200 miles, it isn't even following the moment path.As of 5pm today:
Looks as if we'll miss the worst case scenario (i.e., getting stronger and wetter over the Gulf).
That said, all take care. I just drove from Austin to Galveston (thru downtown Houston) this weekend to take my daughter back to grad school. The Galveston Island was deserted. But, no damage, and I drove around a lot looking. I believe there were only three couples in the Tremont Hotel. Immediate seating at Gaidios, which normally has an hour wait. Beach was empty. Even with the record daily rain in Galveston for a 24 hour period, everything was open on the worst hit area (the Strand). I was really surprised all roads were open on the drive as well thru Houston. Normally takes around 4 hours on weekends, but made it there in 3:15
Only issue I ran into was the bar we went to to watch the Aggie/UCLA game did not have iceberg lettuce for a wedge salad
Again, all take care. My friend was supposed to go to Gainsville this weekend for a women's v-ball tournament, but he just cancelled.
Hurricane expert Maue: extrapolating scale,
#Irma could be a “Category 6”
Posted by Anthony Watts
Dr. Ryan Maue said this morning:
Hurricane #Irma is still intensifying.
Now up to 155-knots (180 mph) Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.
Now up to 155-knots (180 mph) Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.
NWS says: (bold mine)
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several mesovortices rotating within with eye.
The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.
A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory.
This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records.
Chem on September 5, 2017
Our ability to measure details such as the speed of the winds at many various points in the hurricane have improved drastically– year by year, decade by decade.
As our ability to measure improves, we will set many new records.
In this case, it is not necessarily true that the wind speed is higher than it has been ever before,
but most likely that we are now able to better detect the maximum wind speed, even when the hurricane is way out in the middle of an ocean.
Our ability to measure details such as the speed of the winds at many various points in the hurricane have improved drastically– year by year, decade by decade.
As our ability to measure improves, we will set many new records.
In this case, it is not necessarily true that the wind speed is higher than it has been ever before,
but most likely that we are now able to better detect the maximum wind speed, even when the hurricane is way out in the middle of an ocean.
- Gloateus on September 5, 2017
Possibly worse in the LIA [Little Ice Age], due to steeper temperature gradient.
The Divine Wind typhoon which sank the Mongol invasion fleet off Japan however was a pretty bad Medieval WP [Medieval Warm Period] storm.
The 1609 hurricane which marooned by ancestor John Rolfe on Bermuda and inspired Shakespeare’s Tempest might have been a Cat 5.
List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_17th_century
List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century
Note the Great Storm of 1703 during the Maunder Minimum, worst in British history.
Also Great Louisiana hurricane of 1722,
the Great Gust of 1724 on the Atlantic coast,
the Boston storm of 1727 and
Great Hurricane of 1752 in SC.
"The size of the area of high winds is impressive.
I don’t think that I have ever seen such a wide spread of winds at high speed in a hurricane before."
Jose? Well Trump better build that damn wall before we let another Jose in the country.You're right, I don't. Jose is drafting on Irma and there is a third disturbance just coming off the African coast.
I saw a longer-term prediction this morning, where it made a dogleg at Havana and continued on to pass over Tampa Bay. It's not going to be pretty.
I'm ready. I prefer a fight.
Godspeed.
I feel like a jerk for rooting for it to stay away from where my daughter lives, no matter that it's going to go where it damn well pleases. That said, I realize that this storm is going to affect a lot of good people, many who visit this board regularly. Be safe, be well, take care of your families.
Well, that's certainly an ironic post
Hurricane Barkley is also a Catagory 5, and is scheduled to hit directly on Beaver Stadium, and all over the Pitt defense, at exactly 3:30 pm this Saturday. Warnings have been issued, but I'm afraid they will be fruitless, as there is no evacuation possible until around 7:30 pm.
You can root for a NE course out into the Atlantic, and cooler waters dissipate the storm and it ends up as just another rainy day in the British Isles.
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Clears the tip of Florida and gains unparalleled strength turning north into gulfs warm waters. Yikes
This whole scenario reminds me of the words of Lilly Tomlin, " It's going to get a lot worse before it gets worse ".As of 5pm today:
Looks as if we'll miss the worst case scenario (i.e., getting stronger and wetter over the Gulf).
Son's college roommate flew to St. Maarten last Thursday to start his first year of med school. They are looking for a direct hit starting shortly and through the night. He is holed up with his roommate in his dorm with food, water, and metal shutters covering the window. His birthday is tomorrow. I texted his mom that it will be a birthday he will remember forever. Hoping all in Irma's path are spared.
I'm surprised they haven't moved most of these games in the deep south to Thursday or Friday yet. If they don't move them by tomorrow, there are going to be a lot of postponed games into next week on Monday or Tuesday. But hey, it's the NCAA, so rest assured that if they CAN screw it up, they WILL screw it up.
As of 5pm today:
Looks as if we'll miss the worst case scenario (i.e., getting stronger and wetter over the Gulf).
#toomuchscienceforian
Other than extreme South Florida, there's no reason to postpone any other games.
