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OT: Irma track

PSU77sh said:
Son's college roommate flew to St. Maarten last Thursday to start his first year of med school. They are looking for a direct hit starting shortly and through the night. He is holed up with his roommate in his dorm with food, water, and metal shutters covering the window. His birthday is tomorrow. I texted his mom that it will be a birthday he will remember forever. Hoping all in Irma's path are spared.
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My grandson TJ started his first year of med school in Antigua. He contacted my son at 10pm last night, at around 1:30 am this morning was the last we heard from him. Naturally no one slept last night waiting for details of his wellbeing.

Just got word from my wife, Karen, while posting that the grandson texted my son…..saying “ I’m fine , all is good”.
 
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T J said:
View embedded media
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In the site video, a model is tracking Irma farther west. It is an outlier vs other model predictions that have it running east of Florida's center and up the coast, but so far that outlier model has a good track record. So it's worth considering.

Many eyes are on the potential for tracking above the bigger islands and not being dampened by that land. That may keep it stronger and possibly bump it into the gulf, west of the center of Florida.

Developing...
 
step.eng69 said:
My grandson TJ started his first year of med school in Antigua. He contacted my son at 10pm last night, at around 1:30 am this morning was the last we heard from him. Naturally no one slept last night waiting for details of his wellbeing.

Just got word from my wife, Karen, while posting that the grandson texted my son…..saying “ I’m fine , all is good”.
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Great to hear!
 
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step.eng69 said:
My grandson TJ started his first year of med school in Antigua. He contacted my son at 10pm last night, at around 1:30 am this morning was the last we heard from him. Naturally no one slept last night waiting for details of his wellbeing.

Just got word from my wife, Karen, while posting that the grandson texted my son…..saying “ I’m fine , all is good”.
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Good deal.
 
T J said:
The Weatherbell.com site has some good Free coverage, including graphs, analysis and videos.

Hopefully, this link will take you to the Irma updates and coverage page.

Enjoy!

https://www.weatherbell.com/irma-feed
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Wind speeds of 180 mph translate to around 76 pounds per square foot of pressure. For instance, say your body area is about (7 sq. ft). This would be the normal projected area subjected to the wind pressure of 76 psf.

If you were outside exposed to Irma’s wind, you would have to resist about 500 pounds pushing you around.
 
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step.eng69 said:
Wind speeds of 180 mph translate to around 76 pounds per square foot of pressure. For instance, say your body area is about (7 sq. ft). This would be the normal projected area subjected to the wind pressure of 76 psf.

If you were outside exposed to Irma’s wind, you would have to resist about 500 pounds pushing you around.
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Like ...

Chas Wright coming at you
with a downfield block.
​
 
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Ian said:
the media will stir it up to the point you'd think north korea will be launching a HBomb on Miami. The Fake News Network will be all over it and portray doomsday scenario's. nevertheless, a run on Home Depot supplies and water should be a course of action right now.
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It is not "fake news". This "fake news" bs is getting way out of hand and, in this case, dangerous. Please keep your stupidity to yourself. Irma is a category 5 hurricane and the best science that we have has it heading towards Florida. What is fake about that? As a South Florida Resident who is well within the cone, I do not appreciate your flippant attitude and misuse of the term "fake news". People within the cone should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. The "doomsday scenario" that you call "fake news" is a definite possibility.
 
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My son, daughter-in-law and grandson are in Miami Springs. Even though they are not YET in an evacuation zone, they aren't taking any chances. Moved the patio furniture inside and are evacuating to family in Atlanta.
 
Nittany Ned2 said:
FWIW, I just got off a conf call with our regional manager in Central FL, he's an Iowa grad, we try not to hold that against him. :). He just told his employees they were free to work from wherever for the next week. Since we are not tied to brick and mortar our operations will not miss a beat.

If it were me, my wife and I would square the house away and take off for "the Big Easy". We can both work from the hotel during the day and take in the culture and food at night.
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Hope you're kidding . . .
 
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GFS model just ran and massive hit for Miami and entire east coast of Florida before finally making landfall near Savannah. Eye passed about 3 miles from Miami which is worst case scenario. Ukmet model ran a little bit ago and showed almost same solution and almost always the euro model the highest resolution and most accurate does a similar solution as ukmet. So I am expecting the euro to show a big hit on Miami and eastern coast of florida when it runs this afternoon. I am heading for Tampa to ride it out. I want no parts of this storm. Cat 1-2 I will ride out. Seeing the pics coming now of St Maarten I know I want no parts of 150-200mph winds and flooding. The video is downright frightening. Time to get out of dodge while I can, don't feel like dying this weekend
 
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step.eng69 said:
I don't believe he is.
I also thought Ned was kidding about the Iowa grad being a regional manager. :cool:
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New Orleans as a refuge during a hurricane??? Because you can always trust weather and/or hurricane forecasters to be 100% right. (Where is the eye roll when I need it?)
 
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bwifan said:
GFS model just ran and massive hit for Miami and entire east coast of Florida before finally making landfall near Savannah. Eye passed about 3 miles from Miami which is worst case scenario. Ukmet model ran a little bit ago and showed almost same solution and almost always the euro model the highest resolution and most accurate does a similar solution as ukmet. So I am expecting the euro to show a big hit on Miami and eastern coast of florida when it runs this afternoon. I am heading for Tampa to ride it out. I want no parts of this storm. Cat 1-2 I will ride out. Seeing the pics coming now of St Maarten I know I want no parts of 150-200mph winds and flooding. The video is downright frightening. Time to get out of dodge while I can, don't feel like dying this weekend
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God speed bwi, will be thinking of you and yours.
 
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bwifan said:
GFS model just ran and massive hit for Miami and entire east coast of Florida before finally making landfall near Savannah. Eye passed about 3 miles from Miami which is worst case scenario. Ukmet model ran a little bit ago and showed almost same solution and almost always the euro model the highest resolution and most accurate does a similar solution as ukmet. So I am expecting the euro to show a big hit on Miami and eastern coast of florida when it runs this afternoon. I am heading for Tampa to ride it out. I want no parts of this storm. Cat 1-2 I will ride out. Seeing the pics coming now of St Maarten I know I want no parts of 150-200mph winds and flooding. The video is downright frightening. Time to get out of dodge while I can, don't feel like dying this weekend
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Good luck. Leaving beachside Brevard to head to Ocala. This looks really bad.
 
bwifan said:
GFS model just ran and massive hit for Miami and entire east coast of Florida before finally making landfall near Savannah. Eye passed about 3 miles from Miami which is worst case scenario. Ukmet model ran a little bit ago and showed almost same solution and almost always the euro model the highest resolution and most accurate does a similar solution as ukmet. So I am expecting the euro to show a big hit on Miami and eastern coast of florida when it runs this afternoon. I am heading for Tampa to ride it out. I want no parts of this storm. Cat 1-2 I will ride out. Seeing the pics coming now of St Maarten I know I want no parts of 150-200mph winds and flooding. The video is downright frightening. Time to get out of dodge while I can, don't feel like dying this weekend
Click to expand...

Good luck and let us know when you & yours are OK.
 
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Omar81 said:
New Orleans as a refuge during a hurricane??? Because you can always trust weather and/or hurricane forecasters to be 100% right. (Where is the eye roll when I need it?)
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New Orleans is a perfect place for this storm. If it travels up the east coast, he is fine. If it passes Florida and heads into the gulf, he'll have more than enough time to leave New Orleans and head back home.
 
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bwifan said:
I am heading for Tampa to ride it out. I want no parts of this storm. Cat 1-2 I will ride out. Seeing the pics coming now of St Maarten I know I want no parts of 150-200mph winds and flooding. The video is downright frightening. Time to get out of dodge while I can, don't feel like dying this weekend
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keep us posted, bwifan.

appears you are about experience, first-hand, the downside of your recent move to FL. But you're a weather nut, so hopefully you'll safely experience this dynamic.
 
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Tom McAndrew said:
keep us posted, bwifan.

appears you are about experience, first-hand, the downside of your recent move to FL. But you're a weather nut, so hopefully you'll safely experience this dynamic.
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Planning on viewing it from a distance... smart enough to know you don't mess with high cat 4 or 5 canes... as much as I would love to experience it first hand I don't feel like dying this weekend.
 
ForesterGump said:
Bastardi has it coming up the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Its backed up with the European model. Looks like landfall on Monday in South Carolina as a Cat 4.
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We're supposed to take Bastardi's as the expert call?? It's not like he does his own modeling, he predicts/guesses based on the european model which has a history as the most accurate of all models, not much of a "call" on his part.
 
ChiTownLion said:
Is Joe Bastardi a Penn State grad?
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Of course yes. When I used to lift in Rec with him, he used to have a pseudo-Bruce Springsteen look. Trained arms and shoulders, never had a leg day or at least looked like it. Wore a black leather jacket in all the time. Married a PSU gymnast I believe.
 
Three hurricanes at once now fellas, Wow. Katia headed for Mexico.
 
tgar said:
Three hurricanes at once now fellas, Wow. Katia headed for Mexico.
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Thinking people realize that the peak hurricane season is very short. During the 20 days centered around September 10th, three churning hurricanes is not unusual.
Hurricane%2Bseasonal%2Bfrequency.gif
 
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