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Penn State Favored by 4.5 at USC

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ryoder1

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Feb 17, 2007
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I know it is a month before this game and very early in the season. Still, this is clearly our biggest game looming and we should be 5-0 heading to LA so never too early for fans to start the chatter. James can say Kent State, Kent State. Kent State and he should. We can look ahead. The fact is USC has been impressive and we were not on Saturday.

A few thoughts/questions:

-This line really surprises me. I thought it would be like a "pickem" game at this point.

-The Vegas boys must think our performance is an anomaly combo of us totally mailing it in and BGSU playing way over their head/out their butt. We played probably a D game overall and they played an A game. Their QB was playing way over his talent level in my opinion but maybe he is that good. Still this POV is not that far fetched.

-These same Vegas boys seem to not be buying USC just yet. How bad is Utah State? Pitching a shutout is good for a D versus any opponent but maybe Utah State is like bottom 10 in the country bad?? I did not see the game and don't know. Gotta think their offense had some kind of a pulse.

-Since we are on the road it tells me Vegas must think we are touchdown favorites in a neutral site, again very surprising.

-So what if anything do we take from this? For me not much although it does help ground me a bit and help me to resist the temptation of dogging us to the point of thinking we are a mid tier B10 team and this USC team is the second coming of their 2004 team.

-My biggest question is how good is the USC defense? Again, is Utah State pathetic? We will need to put up points and probably at least 24 maybe 28-31 to beat USC. If they have a stout to fairly stout defense and if we are unable to get WRs open then well.... Yikes! But don't want to go down that rabbit hole.
 
I'm not buying USC either so none of this is surprising to me. However making any kind of conclusions before teams playing at least 5-6 games is kinda silly. Which is why The Committee doesn't do it, no idea why everyone else does.
 
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rmem said:
I'm not buying USC either so none of this is surprising to me. However making any kind of conclusions before teams playing at least 5-6 games is kinda silly. Which is why The Committee doesn't do it, no idea why everyone else does.
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My thought is they beat at least a pretty good LSU team then pitch a shutout while posting 48 in their two games. The big question going into the season was if their D would be any good. Seems like they are at least decent. Agree it is early but....and this is just me....I would not put my money on us covering 4.5 pts in the Coliseum at this stage. Hoping we look a lot better in the coming games and maybe USC gets exposed a bit (maybe Michigan does it to them next week).
 
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fastlax16 said:
If we beat USC they aren't very good. If we lose to them it's evidence we can't beat good teams. Those are the only options. Thank you for attending my Ted Talk.
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They're probably a good team win or lose but we'll find out. They're definitely the second best team we play
 
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fastlax16 said:
If we beat USC they aren't very good. If we lose to them it's evidence we can't beat good teams. Those are the only options. Thank you for attending my Ted Talk.
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Well, to be fair, in the last decade, PSU hasn't beat many good teams, so your statement is pretty accurate.
 
heckmans said:
Well, to be fair, in the last decade, PSU hasn't beat many good teams, so your statement is pretty accurate.
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The first sentence is incorrect. If we beat them it will be a good win and against a good team on the road. That is a key reason I have big concerns about this game. Franklin's record in these types of games is poor.
 
Vegas sets lines based on their Power Ratings. If we play more "1st half defense vs BG" football between Kent State and USC week, this line will shift.

Additionally, USC plays Michigan and Wisconsin before they play us while we play Illinois and UCLA before going to Los Angeles. These games will affect the data used to determine the line.

At the end of the day, this line is worthless unless it convinces you to bet it. It won't truly be accurate until it's set on Sunday the week of the game and will then move based on the betting done.
 
ryoder1 said:
The first sentence is incorrect. If we beat them it will be a good win and against a good team on the road. That is a key reason I have big concerns about this game. Franklin's record in these types of games is poor.
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That’s because if we beat a good team, then they aren’t very good and if we lose to a good team, it’s because Franklin can’t beat a good team. Kind of a no win situation.
 
How does anyone figure we will be 5 and 0? The way we played Saturday we could have one or two losses by than
 
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Crusher1950 said:
How does anyone figure we will be 5 and 0? The way we played Saturday we could have one or two losses by than
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Because, honestly, most teams that are good have games like Saturday. The key is great teams win them which we did while ND didn't. Kent State is basically a HS team after losing to St Francis. I mean, are you worried about Illinois? Actually maybe you are. Personally I think Saturday was a good wake up call. Stop buying into McAfee hype. You have to earn it.
 
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Crusher1950 said:
How does anyone figure we will be 5 and 0? The way we played Saturday we could have one or two losses by than
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Many top teams struggled to put away "subpar" competition on Saturday. One team even lost!

#4 Alabama was a fourth down stop from going down to USF with five minutes to play. Don't let the final score fool you.
#5 Notre Dame LOST to Northern Illinois.
#7 Oregon needed a last second field goal to win versus Boise State.
#15 Oklahoma only beat Houston by 4.
#16 Oklahoma State needed overtime to beat Arkansas.
#17 K-State only beat Tulane by 7.
Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia Tech all lost to unranked teams.

I don't hear anywhere near the same doom and gloom about the other teams listed, except Notre Dame which gets the perennial blasting as overrated.

Penn State had one bad half of defense - adjustments were made at halftime and they held Bowling Green to 89 yards and three points in the second half when the game was on the line.
 
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slykens said:
Many top teams struggled to put away "subpar" competition on Saturday. One team even lost!

#4 Alabama was a fourth down stop from going down to USF with five minutes to play. Don't let the final score fool you.
#5 Notre Dame LOST to Northern Illinois.
#7 Oregon needed a last second field goal to win versus Boise State.
#15 Oklahoma only beat Houston by 4.
#16 Oklahoma State needed overtime to beat Arkansas.
#17 K-State only beat Tulane by 7.
Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia Tech all lost to unranked teams.

I don't hear anywhere near the same doom and gloom about the other teams listed, except Notre Dame which gets the perennial blasting as overrated.

Penn State had one bad half of defense - adjustments were made at halftime and they held Bowling Green to 89 yards and three points in the second half when the game was on the line.
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And K-State had to outscore them by 17 points in the second half to make the comeback.
 
slykens said:
Many top teams struggled to put away "subpar" competition on Saturday. One team even lost!

#4 Alabama was a fourth down stop from going down to USF with five minutes to play. Don't let the final score fool you.
#5 Notre Dame LOST to Northern Illinois.
#7 Oregon needed a last second field goal to win versus Boise State.
#15 Oklahoma only beat Houston by 4.
#16 Oklahoma State needed overtime to beat Arkansas.
#17 K-State only beat Tulane by 7.
Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia Tech all lost to unranked teams.

I don't hear anywhere near the same doom and gloom about the other teams listed, except Notre Dame which gets the perennial blasting as overrated.

Penn State had one bad half of defense - adjustments were made at halftime and they held Bowling Green to 89 yards and three points in the second half when the game was on the line.
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Oklahoma fans are terrified but that's because of their schedule
 
LandoComando said:
Oklahoma fans are terrified but that's because of their schedule
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Tennessee is going to beat OU next week. USC Qb's is going to give PSU fits hopefully they can come up with the win on the west coast.
 
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Our fan base is amazing. Damn near lost to Bowling Green and they talk about who gets to play. Now with Illinois ahead they're going on about SC... SMH.

Just beat Kent State
 
slykens said:
Many top teams struggled to put away "subpar" competition on Saturday. One team even lost!

#4 Alabama was a fourth down stop from going down to USF with five minutes to play. Don't let the final score fool you.
#5 Notre Dame LOST to Northern Illinois.
#7 Oregon needed a last second field goal to win versus Boise State.
#15 Oklahoma only beat Houston by 4.
#16 Oklahoma State needed overtime to beat Arkansas.
#17 K-State only beat Tulane by 7.
Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia Tech all lost to unranked teams.

I don't hear anywhere near the same doom and gloom about the other teams listed, except Notre Dame which gets the perennial blasting as overrated.

Penn State had one bad half of defense - adjustments were made at halftime and they held Bowling Green to 89 yards and three points in the second half when the game was on the line.
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I agree. That said, it won't be as easy to overcome those type of mistakes against Wisconsin, USC, and OSU. I hope the BGSU game set off some alarms for the players and coaches. Still concerned about the LBer depth on defense and the WR depth on offense.
 
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RickinDayton said:
it won't be as easy to overcome those type of mistakes against Wisconsin, USC, and OSU.
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Of those 3, only OSU has proven in recent years of playing mistake free football.

I don't think Wisconsin has an offense as good as BG does. Or at least they haven't shown it yet.

USC has the offense, but Nichols scored 21 on LSU and kept their game close for awhile so maybe the "USC offense is great" is premature? Still curious about the defense.

Everybody has flaws. Too much dwelling on ours and ignoring those of our opponents.
 
Caught Trojan Colin on Fox today and as predicted after 2 games he has Moss winning the Heisman, Lynn winning d coordinator of the year, his beloved Trojans winning the Big Ten and playing Texas for the National championship.
 
Delcolion915 said:
Caught Trojan Colin on Fox today and as predicted after 2 games he has Moss winning the Heisman, Lynn winning d coordinator of the year, his beloved Trojans winning the Big Ten and playing Texas for the National championship.
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Was he on something? Maybe he smelled some pride person's sidewalk turd who lives out there.
 
Delcolion915 said:
Caught Trojan Colin on Fox today and as predicted after 2 games he has Moss winning the Heisman, Lynn winning d coordinator of the year, his beloved Trojans winning the Big Ten and playing Texas for the National championship.
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That guy is such a joke. Someone just can him already.
 
lazydave841 said:
Of those 3, only OSU has proven in recent years of playing mistake free football.

I don't think Wisconsin has an offense as good as BG does. Or at least they haven't shown it yet.

USC has the offense, but Nichols scored 21 on LSU and kept their game close for awhile so maybe the "USC offense is great" is premature? Still curious about the defense.

Everybody has flaws. Too much dwelling on ours and ignoring those of our opponents.
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Yep and I'm as guilty as anybody in magnifying our flaws while minimizing our opponent's.

USC does concern me but they do need a larger "body of work" (can't believe I just used that annoying phrase). I am very curious how they look vs Michigan. I think that will be a noon start so 9am for them. Will Michigan play any better than what they showed versus Texas? They have below average QBs so that is their problem.
 
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lazydave841 said:
Of those 3, only OSU has proven in recent years of playing mistake free football.

I don't think Wisconsin has an offense as good as BG does. Or at least they haven't shown it yet.

USC has the offense, but Nichols scored 21 on LSU and kept their game close for awhile so maybe the "USC offense is great" is premature? Still curious about the defense.

Everybody has flaws. Too much dwelling on ours and ignoring those of our opponents.
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I kept saying that LSU is VASTLY overrated with two freshman corners. Nichols St exposed them also. In fact, Nicholls scored more touchdowns than SC did in the first half. Nevermind though, USC is glorious and everyone's darling after week two. Again, if they go in to Ann Arbor and hang 28 on Michigan then they are for real. It might not take 28 the way Michigan is struggling offensively.
 
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ryoder1 said:
I am very curious how they look vs Michigan. I think that will be a noon start so 9am for them. Will Michigan play any better than what they showed versus Texas? They have below average QBs so that is their problem.
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Michigan will at least give us a barometer for what they are. It's safe to say, Michigan must improve a bit and isn't a playoff contender today.
 
I don't know if my opinion has changed all that much of USC since prior to the start of the season. Regardless of USC's first two games, we knew a conference game on the road at USC would provide some elevated level of difficulty. And we always knew Lincoln Reilly would have a decent to high-powered passing offense.

Are even more sure of that because of how they performed against LSU? LSU had one of the worst defenses in P5 last year. Absolute swiss cheese. And they're lofty ranking a season ago came primarily on the back of the number one offense in America + the heisman winner at QB. So not only did we expect their defense to suck, it was a reasonable opinion to think their offense would fall off as well. The biggest variable here seems to be USC's improved defense.

A lot can change in the next three weeks but I don't think the gameplan changes. Defend the run and force long 3rd downs - and our DL needs to get after Moss in the pass rush. Hopefully the run game travels to California, and use Allar to keep the defense off balance with Wallace, Warren, Singleton in the passing game.
 
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TheWizardofCamelot said:
I don't know if my opinion has changed all that much of USC since prior to the start of the season. Regardless of USC's first two games, we knew a conference game on the road at USC would provide some elevated level of difficulty. And we always knew Lincoln Reilly would have a decent to high-powered passing offense.

Are even more sure of that because of how they performed against LSU? LSU had one of the worst defenses in P5 last year. Absolute swiss cheese. And they're lofty ranking a season ago came primarily on the back of the number one offense in America + the heisman winner at QB. So not only did we expect their defense to suck, it was a reasonable opinion to think their offense would fall off as well. The biggest variable here seems to be USC's improved defense.

A lot can change in the next three weeks but I don't think the gameplan changes. Defend the run and force long 3rd downs - and our DL needs to get after Moss in the pass rush. Hopefully the run game travels to California, and use Allar to keep the defense off balance with Wallace, Warren, Singleton in the passing game.
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We still may not know a lot about the USC defense by the week of our game. Here is their schedule leading up to facing us.

@ Michigan
Wisky home
@ Minny

None of these teams have a great or even good offense. Their defense could look good in these games but it may not tell us a lot because they have not been challenged by a very good offense. We will be the the best offense they will have faced and hopefully we can overwhelm their D.

With that said their D is improved versus last year but how much improved because they were pathetic last year.
 
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ryoder1 said:
We still may not know a lot about the USC defense by the week of our game. Here is their schedule leading up to facing us.

@ Michigan
Wisky home
@ Minny

None of these teams have a great or even good offense. Their defense could look good in these games but it may not tell us a lot because they have not been challenged by a very good offense. We will be the the best offense they will have faced and hopefully we can overwhelm their D.

With that said their D is improved versus last year but how much improved because they were pathetic last year.
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Good points. One thing I would add is that Michigan and Wisky are going to try and run the ball. If they're successful, then I like our chances shoving Allen/Singleton down their throats.
 
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TheWizardofCamelot said:
Good points. One thing I would add is that Michigan and Wisky are going to try and run the ball. If they're successful, then I like our chances shoving Allen/Singleton down their throats.
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Yes that will be telling if they have success. Although if their passing games are ineffective and not that much of a threat then USC could stack the box and stop the run. Michigan has the TE, Loveland, so maybe he provides a threat and weapon for them to at least have some success throwing and then they can run Edwards at them.
 
Their QB, Moss looked pretty dam good against LSU, and their WR's ran routes that were lights out over what our WR's have run. I think this game is definitely trouble for us since the USC WR's have always caused us problems.
 
No way to measure how good you're going to be weeks from now. Some teams start great and don't improve, while others suck and end up being very good. Then you have the yo-yo, or the fall off the cliff. Only thing that matters is if you like the line now, bet it, because it's sure to move somewhere.
 
ryoder1 said:
I know it is a month before this game and very early in the season. Still, this is clearly our biggest game looming and we should be 5-0 heading to LA so never too early for fans to start the chatter. James can say Kent State, Kent State. Kent State and he should. We can look ahead. The fact is USC has been impressive and we were not on Saturday.

A few thoughts/questions:

-This line really surprises me. I thought it would be like a "pickem" game at this point.

-The Vegas boys must think our performance is an anomaly combo of us totally mailing it in and BGSU playing way over their head/out their butt. We played probably a D game overall and they played an A game. Their QB was playing way over his talent level in my opinion but maybe he is that good. Still this POV is not that far fetched.

-These same Vegas boys seem to not be buying USC just yet. How bad is Utah State? Pitching a shutout is good for a D versus any opponent but maybe Utah State is like bottom 10 in the country bad?? I did not see the game and don't know. Gotta think their offense had some kind of a pulse.

-Since we are on the road it tells me Vegas must think we are touchdown favorites in a neutral site, again very surprising.

-So what if anything do we take from this? For me not much although it does help ground me a bit and help me to resist the temptation of dogging us to the point of thinking we are a mid tier B10 team and this USC team is the second coming of their 2004 team.

-My biggest question is how good is the USC defense? Again, is Utah State pathetic? We will need to put up points and probably at least 24 maybe 28-31 to beat USC. If they have a stout to fairly stout defense and if we are unable to get WRs open then well.... Yikes! But don't want to go down that rabbit hole.
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Why even post silly nonsense as this, the coaches are still trying to evaluating the team for the qualities needed to sustain a winning season.
 
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