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USC...USC....USC

Not sure that's a given. They fell apart last season and lost 4 out of 5 to close the year.
Seriously, they were not good last year, and if Williams had not bailed them out in several games, they would have had more losses.

And then they had 7 guys drafted and 4 others invited to camp, and have the predictable growing pains of adjusting to Big 10 football to deal with.

I just hope we get a few weeks after Saturday where the pussies on this board refrain from trying to pump up every opponent just to see themselves type.
 
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lol the wrs did not find gaping holes. They had only 167 yards passing and 53 was to running back on one blown play. Plus another 30 some on meaningless last drive
The few yards receiving they had there was no DB within yards of them, none. Watch the game and you will see how open they were.
 
This has been an issue all season and especially since the BG game. It's ridiculous how wide open receivers are against this defense. Also, how many times is a receiver simply going to run five yards past the line of scrimmage into a gaping open space, post up, catch an uncontested pass, and then run five or ten more yards before being tackled? The slant pattern also has been a problem all season.
If this is such a "problem" why are opponents only completing 58 percent of their pass attempts and averaging just 157 yards passing per game?
 
If this is such a "problem" why are opponents only completing 58 percent of their pass attempts and averaging just 157 yards passing per game?
It true. I purposely wait a few days to post my Obli's Observations because I feel the same way. PSU left their WRs open. But then you look at the stats and see that we gave up 6 points and won handily. We aren't covering the spread and scoring the points like I hoped but it is due to the fact that we've only had 8 offensive drives in the last two games. We've given up a lot of first downs but not giving up a lot of points. But, of course, the idea is to score more points than your opponent. When you see the upsets from the weekend, it is a great reminder to be happy with a 1 - 0 weekend.
 
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The D really needs to shut them down. Their receivers are studs. All 6' plus with hands and speed. If PSU lets them get started, it might be a tough day.
USC is going to get some big plays. Miller Moss is averaging 280 yds per game passing and a lot of that has come against ranked opponents. He probably won't panic because he's battle tested against good teams (LSU, Mich, Wisc, Minn).

PSU likes to bring a safety (Reed) up to blitz the QB or provide run support. That leaves a lot of open space in the middle of the field. Possibly only Wheatly or Lane back. I expect USC to take advantage of that with quick release passes to their TEs and WRs on slants. Also trying to beat man coverage by our CBs.

Best case scenario IMO is we hold Moss to 260 yds passing with a 62% completion percentage. Hopefully none of them are break away for TDs. Hold their running game to 110 yds. That would be 370 total yds compared to their average of 440. Hopefully hold them to FGs and win the turnover battle. USC is averaging 31 pts per game. PSU has to hold them to 24 or less.

On offense PSU would have to score more than 24. Let's say 27. PSU is averaging 28 pts vs all teams not named Kent State. USC gave up 27 to Michigan, 21 to Wisconsin, and 24 to Minnesota. Our offense has to perform as good or better than those teams.

JMO
 
Seriously, they were not good last year, and if Williams had not bailed them out in several games, they would have had more losses.

And then they had 7 guys drafted and 4 others invited to camp, and have the predictable growing pains of adjusting to Big 10 football to deal with.

I just hope we get a few weeks after Saturday where the pussies on this board refrain from trying to pump up every opponent just to see themselves type.

I think this is a challenging game. We're rightly favored to win it...but not by a lot.

It's pretty bizarre this notion of vicarious manhood where anyone who thinks the game may not be a walk-over must be a "pussy." Good grief.

Fortunately, the fans aren't the ones playing. But if some of them revel in showing how tough they are from their armchairs, well, to each his own.
 
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USC is going to get some big plays. Miller Moss is averaging 280 yds per game passing and a lot of that has come against ranked opponents. He probably won't panic because he's battle tested against good teams (LSU, Mich, Wisc, Minn).

PSU likes to bring a safety (Reed) up to blitz the QB or provide run support. That leaves a lot of open space in the middle of the field. Possibly only Wheatly or Lane back. I expect USC to take advantage of that with quick release passes to their TEs and WRs on slants. Also trying to beat man coverage by our CBs.

Best case scenario IMO is we hold Moss to 260 yds passing with a 62% completion percentage. Hopefully none of them are break away for TDs. Hold their running game to 110 yds. That would be 370 total yds compared to their average of 440. Hopefully hold them to FGs and win the turnover battle. USC is averaging 31 pts per game. PSU has to hold them to 24 or less.

On offense PSU would have to score more than 24. Let's say 27. PSU is averaging 28 pts vs all teams not named Kent State. USC gave up 27 to Michigan, 21 to Wisconsin, and 24 to Minnesota. Our offense has to perform as good or better than those teams.

JMO
Yep...a couple of turnovers would be nice as well.
 
USC is going to get some big plays. Miller Moss is averaging 280 yds per game passing and a lot of that has come against ranked opponents. He probably won't panic because he's battle tested against good teams (LSU, Mich, Wisc, Minn).

PSU likes to bring a safety (Reed) up to blitz the QB or provide run support. That leaves a lot of open space in the middle of the field. Possibly only Wheatly or Lane back. I expect USC to take advantage of that with quick release passes to their TEs and WRs on slants. Also trying to beat man coverage by our CBs.

Best case scenario IMO is we hold Moss to 260 yds passing with a 62% completion percentage. Hopefully none of them are break away for TDs. Hold their running game to 110 yds. That would be 370 total yds compared to their average of 440. Hopefully hold them to FGs and win the turnover battle. USC is averaging 31 pts per game. PSU has to hold them to 24 or less.

On offense PSU would have to score more than 24. Let's say 27. PSU is averaging 28 pts vs all teams not named Kent State. USC gave up 27 to Michigan, 21 to Wisconsin, and 24 to Minnesota. Our offense has to perform as good or better than those teams.

JMO

Minnesota held him to 200 yards and 60%...
 
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I think this is a challenging game. We're rightly favored to win it...but not by a lot.

It's pretty bizarre this notion of vicarious manhood where anyone who thinks the game may not be a walk-over must be a "pussy." Good grief.

Fortunately, the fans aren't the ones playing. But if some of them revel in showing how tough they are from their armchairs, well, to each his own.
So talking up West Virginia and Illinois was warranted? Or was it certain people just talking to hear themselves speak?

Some people literally had USC as a loss since the Summer, and it's grating!
 
So talking up West Virginia and Illinois was warranted? Or was it certain people just talking to hear themselves speak?

Some people literally had USC as a loss since the Summer, and it's grating!
There are always concerns about game 1 with new players and coaches but I'll be the first to admit that WVa was less of a challenge than I thought. Greene was a good runner who had more yds running than Singleton last year. He got away from us on a number of plays last year and I was concerned about our LB play this year but it turned out that wasn't a problem.

Illinois turned out to be pretty much as I expected. They are still ranked #23 and it was only a 1 score game with 4 minutes remaining in the game. Those are the kind of games that can flip with a late turnover.

There are also reasons to be concerned about USC. ESPN game predictor gives us a 48% chance to win. Bettors favor PSU by 4 pts. Once again a turnover could make the difference. Franklin doesn't have a great track record in big games. I hope that changes on Saturday. It's a game PSU "should" win. Of course Alabama should have beat Vanderbilt last week.
 
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There are always concerns about game 1 with new players and coaches but I'll be the first to admit that WVa was less of a challenge than I thought. Greene was a good runner who had more yds running than Singleton last year. He got away from us on a number of plays last year and I was concerned about our LB play this year but it turned out that wasn't a problem.

Illinois turned out to be pretty much as I expected. They are still ranked #23 and it was only a 1 score game with 4 minutes remaining in the game. Those are the kind of games that can flip with a late turnover.

There are also reasons to be concerned about USC. ESPN game predictor gives us a 48% chance to win. Bettors favor PSU by 4 pts. Once again a turnover could make the difference. Franklin doesn't have a great track record in big games. I hope that changes on Saturday. It's a game PSU "should" win. Of course Alabama should have beat Vanderbilt last week.
Most have it 5.5 points, which is not small for a road team. Not that I care what those degenerates say, especially since we haven't covered several large spreads recently.
 
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Landon Tengwall video on some USC/PSU matchups. He says Miller Moss will probably be the best QB PSU sees this year. And points out that the USC head coach is a highly regarded offensive guru. Notes that USC runs a counter play well and they have a very good running back to do it with.

 
Most have it 5.5 points, which is not small for a road team. Not that I care what those degenerates say, especially since we haven't covered several large spreads recently.
Correct. If the road team is favored by 5.5 that's significant. The expectation is this is a comfortable win. That doesn't mean 42-3 but similar to Illinois. Despite the score the Illinois game never felt in doubt. If we play a solid game this one won't be either.
 
Landon Tengwall video on some USC/PSU matchups. He says Miller Moss will probably be the best QB PSU sees this year. And points out that the USC head coach is a highly regarded offensive guru. Notes that USC runs a counter play well and they have a very good running back to do it with.


Love how he showed a play that worked vs USC then showed our version of it then explains why ours failed.

The said play (4th and 3 pass to Fleming), couple things to add.

1. Fleming doesn't get 1st down plus a yard depth. The way the DB broke, he was going to have to be led, make the catch, fall forward.

2. Free rusher. Allar probably needs to set his feet quicker and take the hit. He short arms the throw which gives the DB extra time and forces Fleming to drift back to the ball.

3. Inside DB wasn't nearly as deep on the snap as USC played this vs LSU. Tre runs an Arrow route instead of the quick slant. Muddys up the pick more for Fleming than it did the DB.

4. Because we didn't motion Kaytron to the right to chip or outright try to block, the free rush took away any 2nd read. Warren beats his man and is wide open. Tre probably comes open as well, but he's looking back to see if we got the 1st down. Love the concept (we do it quite a bit out of Trips, multiple 1st downs and even a score or 2 to Warren and Singleton) but it needs fleshed out and practiced more for precision.
 
Franklin doesn't have a great track record in big games. I hope that changes on Saturday. It's a game PSU "should" win.

what the hell does this even mean? If Franklin supporters tried to argue wins against unranked teams were big wins people like you would laugh in their faces.

If unranked USC is a big game. All top 25 opponents are big games. Let's define games he should win as games he's favored in? Taking a look at matchups against top 25 opponents where PSU is favored since 2016:

7-3 in the regular season as a favorite against top 25 opponents.
3-2 in bowls as a favorite if bowl record still matters.

The regular season losses were:
MSU in 2021. 30-27
Minnesota in 2019. 31-26
MSU in 2017. 27-24
 
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Big games = Michigan and Ohio State--winning this won't move the needle for anyone
Those that refuse to criticize him will overreact as a big win
Those that refuse to give him any credit will say it's a meaningless win
Most of us will see it as him doing a great job beating teams he should
 
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Big games = Michigan and Ohio State--winning this won't move the needle for anyone
Those that refuse to criticize him will overreact as a big win
Those that refuse to give him any credit will say it's a meaningless win
Most of us will see it as him doing a great job beating teams he should

Its a game without a lot of upside from a perception standpoint. I won't call it a lose-lose, because a win would definitely not be a loss, although some would find shit to nitpick. But the only way I see it moving the needle in a W is if we blow them out, which is unlikely.

A loss would definitely move the needle the wrong way though and for talking heads it will be a "big game" in the event its an L.
 
Its a game without a lot of upside from a perception standpoint. I won't call it a lose-lose, because a win would definitely not be a loss. But the only way I see it moving the needle is if we blow them out, which is unlikely.

A loss would definitely move the needle the wrong way though and for talking heads it will be a "big game" in the event its an L.
I agree regarding a loss
Not sure what a blowout would do--it might make the people in the middle happier until Ohio State.
 
I see it this way: USC has the most talented overall roster that PSU has faced this season and likely will until the Ohio State game. To me, it's just a measuring stick to see if PSU can beat them without relying on their depth to wear down teams, as they do with those lacking roster depth.

I also find this matchup interesting, especially with it being a road game, which brings its own set of challenges.
 
What’s interesting here is the massive advantage PSU has in the trenches. In recent years, UM and tOSU have destroyed us at the LOS and won easily. In this case, PSU has a huge advantage on BOTH the OLine and DLine and it will produce a solid victory.
PSU 34
USC 20

WE ARE!!!
 
What’s interesting here is the massive advantage PSU has in the trenches. In recent years, UM and tOSU have destroyed us at the LOS and won easily. In this case, PSU has a huge advantage on BOTH the OLine and DLine and it will produce a solid victory.
PSU 34
USC 20

WE ARE!!!
Agree. Mich beat USC this year with there OL play where they had to replace 4-5 starters from last years team. If you watched them, against USC they appeared not to skip a beat. They just out muscled USC's DL. If they can do it, we should be able to also.
 
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The few yards receiving they had there was no DB within yards of them, none. Watch the game and you will see how open they were.

Not for noth'in, but UCLA only averaged 7.9 yards per completion on their 22 completions - that's not very good at all. If they were that totally uncovered they would have had significant YAC, but again, they're yards per completion was not good.
 
What’s interesting here is the massive advantage PSU has in the trenches. In recent years, UM and tOSU have destroyed us at the LOS and won easily. In this case, PSU has a huge advantage on BOTH the OLine and DLine and it will produce a solid victory.
PSU 34
USC 20

WE ARE!!!
I don't know about the point spread but this is true, PSU's Oline and Dline are the strengths of the team so far this year. And that looks like PSU's most important matchup advantage for Saturday.
 
You're skipping the solar differential as well - when you travel east-to-west, travel day doesn't just "feel like a longer day" - it is in fact, and reality, a longer day. I clearly said coast-to-coast, not from the middle of the Country to West Coast.
If you fly from Tokyo to Dallas, you arrive before you left. You might pass yourself in the airport.
 
Get ready for Eye Test.

PSU and Oregon both lose only to OSU. Who is in the Big Ten Championship game?
Oregon has a much stronger SOS. They play Boise St., tOSU, ILL, UM, Washington, and Wisconsin. Based on this, if both O and PSU have one loss to tOSU, Oregon would go. Here are the tie breakers

  1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
  2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
  3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
  4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
  5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
  6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
I'd actually be fine with that. I'd be happy only having one loss and beating USC, Washington and everyone else on our schedule. We'd certainly be in the playoff and get a first-round bye.
 
Not for noth'in, but UCLA only averaged 7.9 yards per completion on their 22 completions - that's not very good at all. If they were that totally uncovered they would have had significant YAC, but again, they're yards per completion was not good.
Our DB's reacted quickly. Take another look at the game, their WR's were clearly open. Look at the one down the sidelines for 20 ++ yards. No one near him!
 
Oregon has a much stronger SOS. They play Boise St., tOSU, ILL, UM, Washington, and Wisconsin. Based on this, if both O and PSU have one loss to tOSU, Oregon would go. Here are the tie breakers

  1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
  2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
  3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
  4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
  5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
  6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
I'd actually be fine with that. I'd be happy only having one loss and beating USC, Washington and everyone else on our schedule. We'd certainly be in the playoff and get a first-round bye.
Their SOS isn't that much different. We both play OSU, ILL, PUR, WASH, WISC, & MD. Oregon played Boise State who is likely a bit better than WVa.

They also play Michigan who we think is better than Minnesota but maybe not. Michigan is 4-2 and could still lose to Oregon, Indiana, Illinois, and OSU. That could easily be 4 or 5 losses. Minnesota is 3-3 and must still play Illinois, PSU, and WISC. They are also probably a 5 loss team.
 
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Oregon has a much stronger SOS. They play Boise St., tOSU, ILL, UM, Washington, and Wisconsin. Based on this, if both O and PSU have one loss to tOSU, Oregon would go. Here are the tie breakers

  1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
  2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
  3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
  4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
  5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
  6. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
I'd actually be fine with that. I'd be happy only having one loss and beating USC, Washington and everyone else on our schedule. We'd certainly be in the playoff and get a first-round bye.
There is no head to head and non conference games are irrelevant. Assuming we both went 8-1 and lost to tOSU, it would come down to the #4 criteria and the SOS of conference games. Ignoring common opponents, it comes down to the conference record of MSU & Michigan (Oregon’s opponents) to USC & Minnesota (PSU’s opponents).
 
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There is no head to head and non conference games are irrelevant. Assuming we both went 8-1 and lost to tOSU, it would come down to the #4 criteria and the SOS of conference games. Ignoring common opponents, it comes down to the conference record of MSU & Michigan (Oregon’s opponents) to USC & Minnesota (PSU’s opponents).
And I'd rather Oregon have to play an extra game so it should be interesting if that plays out which seems relatively likely.
 
GZed4JmWgAEmJHE
 
Yes, UCLA WR's found gaping holes in our zone defense Saturday. I hope PSU gets this corrected this week. There was no DB within 10 yards of some of the receptions made by UCLA's WR's.
The why couldn't they score more than 11 points? I mean... gaping holes? No DB within 10 yards of receptions? Very strange.
 
Franklin doesn't have a great track record in big games.
He actually does. Except the only two teams that were better than they were. 100% win everywhere else, as long as the starters are playing. Also, the best winning percentage in the Big 10 over any other coach who ever walked the sidelines. Winning % matters.
 
He actually does. Except the only two teams that were better than they were.
PSU was ranked #2 in the nation when they blew a big Q4 lead to lose to OSU by 1 in 2017. Several other losses were when OSU was ranked just a few spots above PSU (2018, 2019, 2023).

PSU was 4-5 in 2020 and 7-6 in 2021 so Franklin obviously hasn't been 100% for everybody but OSU & UM.
 
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