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Penn State offense tied for dead last in the nation in plays of 20+ yards.

PSUWrestlingFanSince2011 said:
If people would actually acknowledge the issue and talk about how we can actually fix it, that would be a good discussion.

People on here cant even acknowledge the issue of our explosive plays eventhough we are dead last in the country. No wonder so many people have left this site, people cant even acknowledge that a stat in which PSU is dead last in the nation in, is a problem.
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I've got no problem with your observations on the subject, though it's definitely become a sore point for Franklin, judging by his comments in the Tuesday presser.

The irony is all this will be settled on the field in Columbus in 9 days. The only thing that matters there is the W...regardless of how it's achieved. I do think some issues on offense may make that more of a challenge. But let's see.

Keep in mind, the Bucks' own O, the running game and OL in particular, didn't look all that great against Maryland, and the Terps' D is not at our level. So there's that.

Meanwhile, just to pour fuel on the fire, here's Stewart Mandel in his fan Q&A column this week. And for God's sake, don't shoot the messenger. I don't necessarily subscribe to everything he says here, but the stats are interesting nonetheless:

>>Penn State blogs are abuzz with the lack of explosive plays this season. Am I crazy for not minding an offense that grinds out long, time-consuming drives that tire out opposing defenses (and still averages 40-plus points/game!)? Pair that with a defense that has a ridiculous stop rate and I’m all the way in. What am I missing? — Jt F., Medford, NJ

I wasn’t aware until this question that Penn State, which has won every game handily — had a low number of explosive plays, so I went to CFBstats and sorted by number of 20-plus yard plays and … what in the world?? The Nittany Lions are tied for 132nd — dead last among all FBS teams — with just 12 in five games. Per TruMedia, they rank 125th nationally in explosive play rate (95th), which it defines as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus yards.

Buddy, that’s not cause for concern, that’s riot-in-the-streets level panic.

Why is this stat important? Because explosive plays are one of the strongest predictors of victory. I asked ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who baked it into his oft-cited SP+ formula, for some stats from the 2023 season. He said teams that produce more 20-plus yard gains than their opponent win 70 percent of the time, and teams that make three more than their opponent win 84 percent of the time. Last year’s four College Football Playoff teams, Georgia (No. 1), TCU (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 10) and Michigan (No. 17), all ranked in the top 20 in 20-plus yard gains.

The Nittany Lions’ lack of explosiveness has not remotely affected them to this point because their defense has allowed just 12 plays of 20-plus yards, tied for third-best nationally. But there’s a notable caveat: Penn State’s four FBS opponents to this point rank 98th (West Virginia), 100th (Illinois), 121st (Iowa) and 131st (Northwestern) in explosive play rate. Everyone else’s defenses are shutting those teams down, too.

After a home date with UMass this week, Penn State takes a huge step up in competition and travels to Ohio State, which is not only more explosive on offense (38th) but, and this may surprise some, leads the country in explosive play rate allowed by its defense (6.5 percent.) Sorry, but the Nittany Lions aren’t going to be able to win that game solely with long, time-consuming drives.

So, OC Mike Yurcich needs to quickly find some answers.

The puzzling part of all this is that Penn State does have guys with big-play history. RB Nick Singleton averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season but has dipped to just 3.8 this season. Top WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith has slipped slightly from 16.2 yards per catch to 14.9. It may be that the offensive line is significantly worse. Or, it may be that James Franklin has been overly conservative because the Nittany Lions didn’t need to do much on offense to beat the teams they’ve played to this point.

If you’re a Penn State fan, though, the most optimistic interpretation would be this whole thing has been a ruse, and Franklin and Yurcich have held off opening up the full playbook until Oct. 21.<<
 
PSUWrestlingFanSince2011 said:
The main reason why I'm so focused on it is bc we can't run the damn ball. If we could actually run the ball then we wouldn't have to be so explosive. I don't see how you think that we can be successful vs OSU and Mich when we can't run the ball and have no explosive plays. You think we're going to consistently drive the ball on Mich and OSU with little 5/7 yard passes? Completing 3rd down after 3rd down like we have vs inferior competition? I dont see it.

Dont get me wrong I still think we can beat OSU bc of our defense but it would be by a score of 17-14 or something.
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We can't run the ball since we don't have enough explosive plays, yet somehow we're 24th in total rushing.
 
knickslions said:
When you’re undefeated and have the longest streak in country scoring 30 or more you are doing something right. I’m perfectly fine winning this way. We won the other way in 2016 and defense was always on field and lost rose bowl because of it. Ball control with no turnovers and a strong defense wins
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And it's great that we're undefeated and beating teams we're supposed to beat. I couldn't be happier with the improvement since 2021. Infinitely better.

That doesn't alter the fact our season comes down to games against Ohio State and Michigan. These first 6 games are prep of Ohio State. Are we good enough to have the same kind of long sustained drives? Will their defenses wear down like others have because do to that we're relying on the defense to dominate? They're valid questions.

5-0 is great but also expected. Also hoping limited turnovers remains a theme against better talent. Even the best QBs make mistakes.
 
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Jerry said:
I've got no problem with your observations on the subject, though it's definitely become a sore point for Franklin, judging by his comments in the Tuesday presser.

The irony is all this will be settled on the field in Columbus in 9 days. The only thing that matters there is the W...regardless of how it's achieved. I do think some issues on offense may make that more of a challenge. But let's see.

Keep in mind, the Bucks' own O, the running game and OL in particular, didn't look all that great against Maryland, and the Terps' D is not at our level. So there's that.

Meanwhile, just to pour fuel on the fire, here's Stewart Mandel in his fan Q&A column this week. And for God's sake, don't shoot the messenger. I don't necessarily subscribe to everything he says here, but the stats are interesting nonetheless:

>>Penn State blogs are abuzz with the lack of explosive plays this season. Am I crazy for not minding an offense that grinds out long, time-consuming drives that tire out opposing defenses (and still averages 40-plus points/game!)? Pair that with a defense that has a ridiculous stop rate and I’m all the way in. What am I missing? — Jt F., Medford, NJ

I wasn’t aware until this question that Penn State, which has won every game handily — had a low number of explosive plays, so I went to CFBstats and sorted by number of 20-plus yard plays and … what in the world?? The Nittany Lions are tied for 132nd — dead last among all FBS teams — with just 12 in five games. Per TruMedia, they rank 125th nationally in explosive play rate (95th), which it defines as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus yards.

Buddy, that’s not cause for concern, that’s riot-in-the-streets level panic.

Why is this stat important? Because explosive plays are one of the strongest predictors of victory. I asked ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who baked it into his oft-cited SP+ formula, for some stats from the 2023 season. He said teams that produce more 20-plus yard gains than their opponent win 70 percent of the time, and teams that make three more than their opponent win 84 percent of the time. Last year’s four College Football Playoff teams, Georgia (No. 1), TCU (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 10) and Michigan (No. 17), all ranked in the top 20 in 20-plus yard gains.

The Nittany Lions’ lack of explosiveness has not remotely affected them to this point because their defense has allowed just 12 plays of 20-plus yards, tied for third-best nationally. But there’s a notable caveat: Penn State’s four FBS opponents to this point rank 98th (West Virginia), 100th (Illinois), 121st (Iowa) and 131st (Northwestern) in explosive play rate. Everyone else’s defenses are shutting those teams down, too.

After a home date with UMass this week, Penn State takes a huge step up in competition and travels to Ohio State, which is not only more explosive on offense (38th) but, and this may surprise some, leads the country in explosive play rate allowed by its defense (6.5 percent.) Sorry, but the Nittany Lions aren’t going to be able to win that game solely with long, time-consuming drives.

So, OC Mike Yurcich needs to quickly find some answers.

The puzzling part of all this is that Penn State does have guys with big-play history. RB Nick Singleton averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season but has dipped to just 3.8 this season. Top WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith has slipped slightly from 16.2 yards per catch to 14.9. It may be that the offensive line is significantly worse. Or, it may be that James Franklin has been overly conservative because the Nittany Lions didn’t need to do much on offense to beat the teams they’ve played to this point.

If you’re a Penn State fan, though, the most optimistic interpretation would be this whole thing has been a ruse, and Franklin and Yurcich have held off opening up the full playbook until Oct. 21.<<
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Notice the comment about WVU. Smoke and mirrors...Im promising you all it goes bad at some point for them.
 
Jerry said:
I've got no problem with your observations on the subject, though it's definitely become a sore point for Franklin, judging by his comments in the Tuesday presser.

The irony is all this will be settled on the field in Columbus in 9 days. The only thing that matters there is the W...regardless of how it's achieved. I do think some issues on offense may make that more of a challenge. But let's see.

Keep in mind, the Bucks' own O, the running game and OL in particular, didn't look all that great against Maryland, and the Terps' D is not at our level. So there's that.

Meanwhile, just to pour fuel on the fire, here's Stewart Mandel in his fan Q&A column this week. And for God's sake, don't shoot the messenger. I don't necessarily subscribe to everything he says here, but the stats are interesting nonetheless:

>>Penn State blogs are abuzz with the lack of explosive plays this season. Am I crazy for not minding an offense that grinds out long, time-consuming drives that tire out opposing defenses (and still averages 40-plus points/game!)? Pair that with a defense that has a ridiculous stop rate and I’m all the way in. What am I missing? — Jt F., Medford, NJ

I wasn’t aware until this question that Penn State, which has won every game handily — had a low number of explosive plays, so I went to CFBstats and sorted by number of 20-plus yard plays and … what in the world?? The Nittany Lions are tied for 132nd — dead last among all FBS teams — with just 12 in five games. Per TruMedia, they rank 125th nationally in explosive play rate (95th), which it defines as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus yards.

Buddy, that’s not cause for concern, that’s riot-in-the-streets level panic.

Why is this stat important? Because explosive plays are one of the strongest predictors of victory. I asked ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who baked it into his oft-cited SP+ formula, for some stats from the 2023 season. He said teams that produce more 20-plus yard gains than their opponent win 70 percent of the time, and teams that make three more than their opponent win 84 percent of the time. Last year’s four College Football Playoff teams, Georgia (No. 1), TCU (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 10) and Michigan (No. 17), all ranked in the top 20 in 20-plus yard gains.

The Nittany Lions’ lack of explosiveness has not remotely affected them to this point because their defense has allowed just 12 plays of 20-plus yards, tied for third-best nationally. But there’s a notable caveat: Penn State’s four FBS opponents to this point rank 98th (West Virginia), 100th (Illinois), 121st (Iowa) and 131st (Northwestern) in explosive play rate. Everyone else’s defenses are shutting those teams down, too.

After a home date with UMass this week, Penn State takes a huge step up in competition and travels to Ohio State, which is not only more explosive on offense (38th) but, and this may surprise some, leads the country in explosive play rate allowed by its defense (6.5 percent.) Sorry, but the Nittany Lions aren’t going to be able to win that game solely with long, time-consuming drives.

So, OC Mike Yurcich needs to quickly find some answers.

The puzzling part of all this is that Penn State does have guys with big-play history. RB Nick Singleton averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season but has dipped to just 3.8 this season. Top WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith has slipped slightly from 16.2 yards per catch to 14.9. It may be that the offensive line is significantly worse. Or, it may be that James Franklin has been overly conservative because the Nittany Lions didn’t need to do much on offense to beat the teams they’ve played to this point.

If you’re a Penn State fan, though, the most optimistic interpretation would be this whole thing has been a ruse, and Franklin and Yurcich have held off opening up the full playbook until Oct. 21.<<
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That's a bit sobering. The only thing is that sometimes numbers can lie a little, as with OSU this season, because, even with some great weapons like Harrison and their explosive play rank, their offense struggled quite a bit against the only two teams that they've played which had a realistic chance to beat them, and certainly has looked containable. Their o-line also often has looked as uninspiring as our o-line often does. I know that they had a good second half against Maryland, but that mainly was because their defense enabled their offense to grind them down.
 
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bcspsu said:
That's a bit sobering. The only thing is that sometimes numbers can lie a little, as with OSU this season, because, even with some great weapons like Harrison and their explosive play rank, their offense struggled quite a bit against the only two teams that they've played which had a realistic chance to beat them, and certainly has looked containable. Their o-line also often has looked as uninspiring as our o-line often does. I kno that they had a good second half against Maryland, but that mainly was because their defense enabled their offense to grind them down in the second half.
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Agreed.

Stats have their place and can sometimes tell an important story, but you know the old saying: There's lies...damn lies...and statistics.

Because you can always find a statistic to support any case you want to make.
 
Jerry said:
At this point, I count West Virginia as a good win against a good team. Same for Iowa.
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Jerry said:
At this point, I count West Virginia as a good win against a good team. Same for Iowa.
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WVU has overachieved so far this season; if they beat Oklahoma State, they should finish no worse than 8-4 or even 9-3. As for Iowa, they most likely will end up winning at least 8 and probably 9 games because of their schedule.

Unfortunately, our win against Illinois is being dimisnished because it appears as if they are going to have a poor season.
 
Jerry said:
Agreed.

Stats have their place and can sometimes tell an important story, but you know the old saying: There's lies...damn lies...and statistics.

Because you can always find a statistic to support any case you want to make.
Click to expand...
It's almost the only stat we aren't good in.

In my opinion, our offensive line is much better this year versus last year even though we have less long runs this year. It seems like 4-5 yards a carry are a given this year versus last year when we seemed to struggle even when playing subpar opponents. It seemed like we always had several plays that got stuffed in the backfield and that isn't happening this year.

Yes, I wish we saw more big plays but you can't be good at everything and we've only played 5 games.
 
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wilbury said:
It's almost the only stat we aren't good in.

In my opinion, our offensive line is much better this year versus last year even though we have less long runs this year. It seems like 4-5 yards a carry are a given this year versus last year when we seemed to struggle even when playing subpar opponents. It seemed like we always had several plays that got stuffed in the backfield and that isn't happening this year.

Yes, I wish we saw more big plays but you can't be good at everything and we've only played 5 games.
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It's also hard to have explosive pass plays when you don't run passing routes to get the explosive pass plays. I mean, in the NU game, it took until the fourth quarter for Allar to throw deep passes, both of which were missed in the endzone.

As for the lack of explosive runs, the only running back who appears capable of making explosive runs right now is Potts, because it seems like he actually tries to make some moves once he gets past the line of scrimmage, whereas Allen and Singleton seem to run right into tacklers. The backs need to do more to create some explosive runs, and I don't think that they've done that.
 
PSUWrestlingFanSince2011 said:
You can say what you want about our offense, but if you think that this doesn't need to be improved then you don't know football.

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Not sure anyone says that the offense doesn’t need to improve. The entire teams needs to re-assess, and improve every week. In my view, the offense is improving ( incrementally) every week, with some occasional lapses.….growing pains occur. Your cited data are clearly legitimate, but up to this point, they are moot. The team has won pretty easily by 30+ points per game ( and could have scored more in each). The NEED for long yardage plays has not existed. This offense, although young and developing, is talented and pretty balanced…..and that should concern opponents. The offensive line, while not exceptional, is solid, and developing better chemistry every week. They will be good if they remain generally uninjured . The running backs are very good, and more importantly, effective…..regardless of decreased YPC. They have demonstrated previously that they have the ability to break off big plays at any time. They may not have done so yet this year, but they are a “loaded gun” to every defense they face. The WR’s are athletic, and solid. They have shown flashes of excellence, but they need to (and will) develop better chemistry and ball skills as they move forward. They are a solid weapon, and will become more dangerous as the year unfolds ( assuming limited injuries). Add this to a largely suffocating and athletic defense, this substantially mitigates any acute concerns re: lack of big play data points. —If we were losing, or barely winning, those data points would be of greater concern. — The 40,000 foot view seems to indicate that this team is on the right track, and has time to develop. Data points can be a good guide/tool, but that’s all they are. ***Also Pretty sure the coaches have been holding back multiple play sets that have big play potential. — Given our athletes , I’m betting our playbook is MUCH bigger….and more dangerous . Winning by 30+ every game essentially negates the coaches need to use them. JMO
 
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Jerry said:
I've got no problem with your observations on the subject, though it's definitely become a sore point for Franklin, judging by his comments in the Tuesday presser.

The irony is all this will be settled on the field in Columbus in 9 days. The only thing that matters there is the W...regardless of how it's achieved. I do think some issues on offense may make that more of a challenge. But let's see.

Keep in mind, the Bucks' own O, the running game and OL in particular, didn't look all that great against Maryland, and the Terps' D is not at our level. So there's that.

Meanwhile, just to pour fuel on the fire, here's Stewart Mandel in his fan Q&A column this week. And for God's sake, don't shoot the messenger. I don't necessarily subscribe to everything he says here, but the stats are interesting nonetheless:

>>Penn State blogs are abuzz with the lack of explosive plays this season. Am I crazy for not minding an offense that grinds out long, time-consuming drives that tire out opposing defenses (and still averages 40-plus points/game!)? Pair that with a defense that has a ridiculous stop rate and I’m all the way in. What am I missing? — Jt F., Medford, NJ

I wasn’t aware until this question that Penn State, which has won every game handily — had a low number of explosive plays, so I went to CFBstats and sorted by number of 20-plus yard plays and … what in the world?? The Nittany Lions are tied for 132nd — dead last among all FBS teams — with just 12 in five games. Per TruMedia, they rank 125th nationally in explosive play rate (95th), which it defines as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus yards.

Buddy, that’s not cause for concern, that’s riot-in-the-streets level panic.

Why is this stat important? Because explosive plays are one of the strongest predictors of victory. I asked ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who baked it into his oft-cited SP+ formula, for some stats from the 2023 season. He said teams that produce more 20-plus yard gains than their opponent win 70 percent of the time, and teams that make three more than their opponent win 84 percent of the time. Last year’s four College Football Playoff teams, Georgia (No. 1), TCU (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 10) and Michigan (No. 17), all ranked in the top 20 in 20-plus yard gains.

The Nittany Lions’ lack of explosiveness has not remotely affected them to this point because their defense has allowed just 12 plays of 20-plus yards, tied for third-best nationally. But there’s a notable caveat: Penn State’s four FBS opponents to this point rank 98th (West Virginia), 100th (Illinois), 121st (Iowa) and 131st (Northwestern) in explosive play rate. Everyone else’s defenses are shutting those teams down, too.

After a home date with UMass this week, Penn State takes a huge step up in competition and travels to Ohio State, which is not only more explosive on offense (38th) but, and this may surprise some, leads the country in explosive play rate allowed by its defense (6.5 percent.) Sorry, but the Nittany Lions aren’t going to be able to win that game solely with long, time-consuming drives.

So, OC Mike Yurcich needs to quickly find some answers.

The puzzling part of all this is that Penn State does have guys with big-play history. RB Nick Singleton averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season but has dipped to just 3.8 this season. Top WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith has slipped slightly from 16.2 yards per catch to 14.9. It may be that the offensive line is significantly worse. Or, it may be that James Franklin has been overly conservative because the Nittany Lions didn’t need to do much on offense to beat the teams they’ve played to this point.

If you’re a Penn State fan, though, the most optimistic interpretation would be this whole thing has been a ruse, and Franklin and Yurcich have held off opening up the full playbook until Oct. 21.<<
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Wow great post. Thank you.
 
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CJFisJoePaII said:
Or the fact that their leading the Conference in Scoring Offense and are nearly tied for 1st in Total Offense per game (duhO$U 434.4 ypg, then PSU 430.4 ypg). They also lead the Conference in Total First Downs Gained, Red Zone Offense, RZ TDs, RZ TD Conversion Rate and Time of Possession.
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mmhm
 
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