Maryland lol Penn state will be 20 point favorites at least. Minnesota based on what. There are no signs those teams will be Penn state
Football Penn State opens as 4.5-point underdogs versus Ohio State
- Thread starter Richie O
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Ohio State has been far from dominant, even against real poor competition. They, like us, Oregon, Georgia, Alabama, Texas etc. have played down to their competition all year, especially for a half or more. You do this too often and you can get bit. Gotta remember that OSU was at home this weekend. Their only real game was Oregon and that was a loss.
Just real hard to pick a favorite - at this time - for the NC. There are 6 to 8 teams that have a realistic shot
I might be grasping at straws but I feel like this game, at long last, might be refereed fairly, taking a huge edge away from OSU. With the playoff in existence a single OSU loss doesn’t knock them out of contention. In fact, in terms of what is best for the BIG, a Penn State win would almost certainly secure three bids for the league. No way a 2-loss OSU with losses to only top 5 opponents at their places gets left out.
Money was coming in fast on Ohio State because of the uncertainty around Allar--smart to pull it
Minny is a road game and will try to play us ugly, rock-fight football and hope we play down to them. It should be the toughest game outside of OSU, but with Allar I don't see them being within +10 unless they dominate Illinois and soundly beat Rutgers (perception rides on Illinois game for them and whether we have Drew or not).
Maryland tends to psych themselves out vs us. I think we roll them hard regardless.
Historically, unless your name is Georgia, losing to a top 5 team when *you* are a top 5 team means hardly any change in the rankings after the game. Finishing with one loss and not having to play in the Big 10 Championship game, while also making the playoffs... there are worse things. Some would argue it is the better path. I'd rather only play the Duck$ once instead of twice.
If we lose...worst case we're 6th
And I agree...the better path is not playing in the CCG if possible.
OSU looked pretty dominant until Oregon & Nebraska. They played #1 Oregon even and only lost because their QB made a mistake and ran the clock out.
IMO their only weakness was yesterday against Nebraska which was surprising consider the way they got smoked by Indiana. I assume that was a letdown performance after Oregon. Don't sell them and their $20 million + payroll short.
They were in close games (like everyone else) most of the year until later in 2nd half. Their oline has not been great, QB average, D not as advertised. Oregon was their best game. They could break out against us, but I expect a good game.
Is Minny much better than Wisky? I doubt that beat USC in the Coliseum. Seem to have equal talent to Wisky?
Honestly, I'm not sure how I would rate them. Wisconsin just can't compete for 4 quarters against teams with superior talent. Minnesota has the worst loss of them both (UNC week 1), but perhaps the better win (over USC).
Looking at their upcoming schedules, both could be fighting for bowl eligibility in their season ending game. Minnesota is a road favorite going to Illinois this week, which kind of shocked me. FPI favors Wisconsin 60/40 today as well.
I'm still not sure how I would rate either teams talent. Maybe slight edge Minnesota due to QBs, but I think Fickell is a better coach than Fleck. I don't think Wisky has the roster to run what they are trying yet while Minny seems to have a similar offensive style, but their QB1 is healthy.
The more I look, the similar they appear.
I just don't see Minny as much of a threat to us even without Allar. Same storyline as Wisky, not enough talent to hang with us for 4 quarters. Last night's game should have been 35-10 (gift Wisky FG after ridiculous broken play punter scramble and Fleming drop that was going to be a TD or inside 5). And remember the environment was supposed to be so difficult for us that we handled well. Going to be no different vs Minny and no night game.
Watching the OSU-Neb replay as I type this. Buckeyes aren’t playing great, especially along the offensive line. And the QB is certainly not as dynamic as the guys they’ve had the last decade or more.
Having said that, I see a lot of the speed and athletic ability in individuals that has given PSU fits the past several meetings. Their back seven on D fly to the football and play very physical.
The first half vs USC’s speed does not inspire confidence for this week, no matter the PSU quarterback. I can also see big problems if PSU has to play a reserve at right tackle.
Hope I’m wrong, but I can see OSU winning by approx 10 in a very low scoring game.
After that, I believe PSU should win out the rest of the regular season.
Having said that, I see a lot of the speed and athletic ability in individuals that has given PSU fits the past several meetings. Their back seven on D fly to the football and play very physical.
The first half vs USC’s speed does not inspire confidence for this week, no matter the PSU quarterback. I can also see big problems if PSU has to play a reserve at right tackle.
Hope I’m wrong, but I can see OSU winning by approx 10 in a very low scoring game.
After that, I believe PSU should win out the rest of the regular season.
Imagine this. We lose to tOSU but win every other game. Osu beats Indiana but they win their other games. Indiana wins every other game. OSU beats Oregon in the B1G championship.
That leaves four one loss teams. Oregon or tOSU would win the B1G and both would be in the playoff. Indy or PSU would come in third and fourth. Would the B1G get four teams in the 12 team playoff?
It's just as interesting if you assume all of the above, except Oregon beats tOSU in the BIG Championship (in another very close game), leaving a 2-loss tOSU, whose only losses are to what would be the #1 undefeated squad. Would they dare keep tOSU out of the playoff? Would they include all 4 of those Big Ten squads, or would they include a 2-loss tOSU and exclude a 1-loss Big Ten squad?
Ohio State is comfortably in at 11-2 with 2 losses to the number 1 team. There isn't even a two second debate. The question is do the keep the 5 seed to fall. They still get a home game.
I don't understand how anyone thinks an 11-2 Big Ten team that lost a CCG is even remotely out.
Indiana is the only team that even has to worry with 2 losses.
Another thought to this is there are scenarios where two undefeated teams square off in the ACC and Big 12 Championship games .. does that guarantee those 4 squads entry into the playoff, thereby potentially limiting the squads that can qualify from the SEC and Big 10? The SEC still has a cannibalization process to work through - those top squads have at least 1 loss already, and they all play at least 1 game against one of the other top squads, so you're going to see most of the top SEC squads with at least 2 losses. 1 or 2 may make it out with 1 loss.
How much does the perceived superiority and relative SOS factor in to allow the SEC to "jump" teams with better records? ESPN's FPI already has a 2-loss Bama over undefeated teams in other major conferences.
I'm not getting into the nooks and crannies of it, because I'm not THAT interested in it, and there are far too many unknowns at this point ... but it *could* be interesting to see what happens ... although these things typically have a way of sorting themselves out so it's clearer who should be selected.
That's not a far-fetched scenario, and it underscores why we don't want to have two losses and end up entrusting our fate to the tender mercies of the committee. History hasn't been kind to us in those kinds of scenarios.
I mean, 5 bids will be automatic...and it looks like the competition for the other 7 will include various 1-loss teams to include Notre Dame. Then add in the SEC and its propaganda machine pounding the table...ask Florida State about that.
In sum, I think we're pretty safe with 1 loss. 2 losses...not so much.
"Pretty safe with 1 loss"--so, to be clear, now you're claiming an 11-1 Penn State with a loss to Ohio State is only "pretty safe"
I--people need to comprehend this is a 12 team playoff. The top 9 teams in the rankings are locks to make the playoff. At 10-2 there's no chance we're outside the top 9. None. And that's assuming the ACC, Big XII and G5 winners are all outside the top 12
Sounds reasonable.
Penn State opens as 4.5-point underdogs versus Ohio State
Penn State has opened as a 4.5-point underdogs versus Ohio State ahead of next Saturday's game.pennstate.rivals.com
yep. I think we beat Indy in tie breakers assuming we both end up with a single loss. But two losses and we may well be out. here are the tie breakers
- The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
- The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
- The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
- The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
- UCLA
- MD
- NW
- NE
- Washington
- Sparty
- UM
- tOSU
- Purdue
- ILL
- UCLA
- USC
- Wisconsin
- tOSU
- Washington
- Purdue
- Minn
- MD
There really isn't anything here I can dispute. Their defense might not seem like they are producing a bunch of stats, but teams don't score a lot on them.
A better offense (and coaching decisions) would have gotten at least 6 more points than Nebraska did (Rhule played for TDs and failed miserably, going '78 Sugar Bowl on 4 plays inside the 10), perhaps even 14. Will we have a better offense Saturday? In theory, sure. Home field advantage to boot (Nebraska was at Columbus).
This was a tough game to start with. Allar's health has made it considerably tougher even if Beau plays an excellent game.
Actually, he was recruited by PSU until he was injured in his senior season. At that point the interest fell off.
And if he were recruited long enough to commit, he most likely would have transferred out (does anybody think he beats out Clifford, Levis, Allar to start?) And we would then be hearing "they wouldn't let me play" commentary.
It is what it is. How many times have we played Iowa and we hear about some 4th or 5th year PA 2* we overlooked who is now their starter? This gets brought up so many times when you are a blue blood. It's a human interest story to add flavor to a game.
If it motivates Howard, so be it. Maybe he gets too hyped up and throws 3 pick 6s. I can dream too.
Ohio State fans deserve that for bashing McCord even if McCord was horrific that week.
While I want PSU to win, I don't wish anything bad for Howard. He's actually a friend of my son's. I don't personally know him, but my son knows him well.
...I'm trying to remember the last time a spurned QB came into Beaver Stadium...?
Oh, that's right...https://youtu.be/244zcOSgmh8?si=bEj1jraPrzo3CK8D
Oh, that's right...https://youtu.be/244zcOSgmh8?si=bEj1jraPrzo3CK8D
Last week, the defense finally stepped up and had 13 tackles for a loss. JT Tumalaoa has been above average but has generally not lived up to the hype at defensive end although he had a tackle for a loss last week. Sawyer has been consistently good and will probably be a late first round draft pick. The two interior defensive lineman are very good and strong. Over the last year and a half the linebackers have been only average but Cody Simon had a breakout game against Nebraska and had numerous tackles for a loss. Arvill Reese is the third linebacker and is viewed as a potential star once he starts starting. Denzel Burke looked terrible against Oregon but had a real good game against Nebraska going against slower receivers. The game against Nebraska was probably the best game the defense has played in a year and a half. The DBs are generally very good.
If your starting tackle is injured and doesn't play, this could be a mirror game where both defenses shred the offensive line of the opposing team.
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I saw 3.5 which is surprising to me BUT the USC line surprised me as well so...who knows
I'm curious if bets are coming in assuming Allar is playing or if people are overreacting to the Nebraska game--but either way it's trending toward us.
Tell your son to tell him that whining about not getting a scholarship to PSU is not a good look.
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