Penn State Wrestling 2015-2016 YEAR in PREVIEW: Analysis and Predictions

[CholleyVandine]

Brands - Iowa (9 years) 9/9, mean 3.0
Sanderson - PSU (6 years) 6/6, mean 3.2
Sanderson - Career (9 years) 9/9, mean 3.2
John Smith - Career (24 years) 22/24, mean 4.2
Brands - Career (11 years) 9/11, mean 4.4
Tom Ryan - tOSU (9 years) 7/9, mean 5.7
J Rob - Career (30 years) 22/30, mean 6.3

 

[El-Jefe]

Good starting point, but probably not the best metrics:
1. 20 years is too far back -- Cael was a HS sophomore then.
2. Top 10 team placement is not as good of a determinant as team points, for a number of reasons:
- You control your points; you don't control your placement -- other teams factor into that.
- Usually too big of a gap between #1 and #10. In 2015, #10 VT and #11 Michigan combined would just beat Ohio State.

I'll go one step further: data below is normalized by total tourney points each year, which filters out variables such as rules changes, Average Officials, etc. I know this is kinda hard to picture, so for reference: the difference between Cornell and Ohio State is approx 18 team pts/year.

In English: last year Ohio State scored 102 pts. The entire tourney scored 1383 pts --> Ohio State scored 102 / 1383 = 7.4% of all team points scored in 2015. Do the same calculation in all years, then take the average of those percentages.

Data starts in 2010 -- Cael's first year at PSU -- there has been relatively little coaching turnover since then, so the data should be more useful. This does include his first year, when PSU finished 9th. Truncating after #30 (min 1.0% avg pts) -- no need to list all teams.

# Team "Avg %"
1 Penn State 6.8
2 Iowa 6.3
3 Minnesota 5.7
4 Oklahoma State 5.5
5 Cornell 5.3
6 Ohio State 4.2
7 Missouri 3.1
8 Edinboro 3.0
9 Oklahoma 2.9
10 Nebraska 2.9
11 Illinois 2.8
12 Iowa State 2.7
13 Lehigh 2.6
14 Virginia Tech 2.5
15 Wisconsin 2.4
16 Northwestern 2.2
17 Michigan 2.1
18 Oregon State 1.8
19 Pittsburgh 1.7
20 Boise State 1.7
21 Central Michigan 1.6
22 Virginia 1.6
23 American 1.5
24 Kent State 1.5
25 Maryland 1.4
26 Stanford 1.3
27 Northern Iowa 1.3
28 Arizona State 1.1
29 Wyoming 1.1
30 Indiana 1.1

 

[jammenz]

Coaches mean average placing last nine years:

Brands- 3.0
Cael-.... 3.2
Smith....5.4
Jrob......5.4

 

[amalone]

Here are some simple numbers. Listed below in a link are the NCAA National Team Champions from 1928-2015.

In 29 years of coaching at Minnesota, J Robinson has won 3 National Championships. 2001, 2002, 2007

In 6 years of coaching at Penn State, Cael Sanderson won 4 National Titles in a ROW... 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
after a year to assemble a team and then to create a dynasty.

If Cael stays on pace to coach as long as J Robinson has... and stays on pace to win titles at the same clip... He could end up with
20 National TITLES to J's... 3. As I don't see J Robinson ever winning a title when going up against Cael Sanderson as long as Cael is at PENN STATE. A wrestling GIANT... against a team that's trying to "be somebody".

I don't see Minnesota's future teams being anything... other than Penn State's wrestlings... wrestling dummies or mat cleaners.




Like Dylan Ness...

Or Cody Yohn...

Or Scott Schiller.


Link of National Champs attached below.

http://www.ncaa.com/history/wrestling/d1

 

[Nitfan]

Actually my craft is dispensing facts and figures which this partisan board ignores to disparage me. However, this should cheer them up. Here are teams top 10 finishes for the last 20 years. If you finished out of the top ten that year then you were assigned a value of 11. Penn State ends up a surprising tied for 4th/5th with nobody else close. I mean, who knew?

1)........... Iowa 20/20, mean 2.9, median 2.5, mode 1.
2)...... Okie St 19/20, mean 4, median 3.5, mode 3
3)......... Minny 18/20, mean 4.5, median 3, mode 2
4/5)........ PSU 13/20, mean 6.2, median 7.5, mode 11
4/5)....... IA St) 13/20, mean 6.6, median 6, mode 11

You have to go back 2o years to make the

Actually my craft is dispensing facts and figures which this partisan board ignores to disparage me. However, this should cheer them up. Here are teams top 10 finishes for the last 20 years. If you finished out of the top ten that year then you were assigned a value of 11. Penn State ends up a surprising tied for 4th/5th with nobody else close. I mean, who knew?

1)........... Iowa 20/20, mean 2.9, median 2.5, mode 1.
2)...... Okie St 19/20, mean 4, median 3.5, mode 3
3)......... Minny 18/20, mean 4.5, median 3, mode 2
4/5)........ PSU 13/20, mean 6.2, median 7.5, mode 11
4/5)....... IA St) 13/20, mean 6.6, median 6, mode 11

 

[Nitfan]

You have to go back 20 years to make the Goophers significant. They are like the Dallas Cowboys, living in the past !

 

[seeyajohn]

You have to go back 20 years to make the Goophers significant. They are like the Dallas Cowboys, living in the past !

????????

 

[jschrantz]

????????

It's not quite that bad, the Gophers have been relevant recently and are typically a factor in the conference. As annoying as Jammies can be, let's slow down.

 

[Minnesotaflyer]

I live here. Buddies with one ex gopher wrestler and another super fan. They are not very optimistic this season. They may not finish in the top 8 in Nationals.

 

[jschrantz]

I live here. Buddies with one ex gopher wrestler and another super fan. They are not very optimistic this season. They may not finish in the top 8 in Nationals.

They won't be Top 8, not close this year

 

[JUBAN]

Pretty sad that a 67 year old man (he said he was born in 1948) wastes his time trolling message boards. That's something a 16 year old dipshit on 4chan hopped up on Mountain Dew and Funyuns does.

Tres pathetique!

Carefull Chickenman....there's a lot of us old timers who "troll" these sites....I too was born in '48.

 

[lionlover]

Here are some simple numbers. Listed below in a link are the NCAA National Team Champions from 1928-2015.

In 29 years of coaching at Minnesota, J Robinson has won 3 National Championships. 2001, 2002, 2007

In 6 years of coaching at Penn State, Cael Sanderson won 4 National Titles in a ROW... 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
after a year to assemble a team and then to create a dynasty.

If Cael stays on pace to coach as long as J Robinson has... and stays on pace to win titles at the same clip... He could end up with
20 National TITLES to J's... 3. As I don't see J Robinson ever wining a title when going up against Cael Sanderson as long as Cael is at PENN STATE. A wrestling GIANT... against a team that's trying to "be somebody".

I don't see Minnesota's future teams being anything... other than Penn State's wrestlings... wrestling dummies or mat cleaners.




Like Dylan Ness...

Or Cody Yohn...

Or Scott Schiller.


Link of National Champs attached below.

http://www.ncaa.com/history/wrestling/d1

LOL, the outline of your footprint is indented about six inches deep in Jammies throat!

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Carefull Chickenman....there's a lot of us old timers who "troll" these sites....I too was born in '48.

I hear you, but participating and trolling are different things altogether.

Hell, when I retire, I'll be camped out on boards like this.

 

[jammenz]

NWCA National Duals championships:

Minnesota 8
PSU..........1

 

[jammenz]

I hear you, but participating and Identity Correcting are different things altogether. Hell, when I retire, I'll be camped out on boards like this.

fify

 

[El-Jefe]

NWCA National Duals championships:

Minnesota 8
PSU..........1

"Titles" nobody cares about except Jammenz and possibly Foley:
Minnesota 8
PSU 1

 

[Nitfan]

Coaches mean average placing last nine years:

Brands- 3.0
Cael-.... 3.2
Smith....5.4
Jrob......5.4

Try last 5 !!!!

 

[amalone]

"Titles" nobody cares about except Jammenz and possibly Foley:
Minnesota 8
PSU 1

And Mike Moyer, Rob Koll and cronies.

Jammenz... NCAA Champion is the one and only team Wrestling CHAMP.

NWCA... Stands for... NOT WORTH CACA!!!

 

[dunkej01]

NWCA National Duals championships:

Minnesota 8
PSU..........1

I have to admit, I didnt see that one coming. You should probably admit, that typing that even for you felt a little icky......

 

[lauren68]

I would have to say Minnie probably leads the field in hats with different slogans.

 

[amalone]

There's probably some kid in a 3rd World country wishing he had a NCWA National Dual Championship tee shirt. Ship him the one you made for yourself Jammie. It will have the same significance to him as your statement had to us.

 

[jammenz]

Pre-Cael PSU record vs Minny 6-10.

Cael winless in five attempts, 0-4-1.

 

[jerot]

Jammie is the King of All Trolls!
This is like Ali - Foreman!

 

[El-Jefe]

Pre-Cael PSU record vs Minny 6-10.

Cael winless in five attempts, 0-4-1.

So what you're saying is that Cael Sanderson's arrival at Penn State elevated Minnesota's program. Kinda like how the Goofers won 0 national championships before Penn State joined the B10.