Our chances certainly took a hit yesterday, but we’re still alive. Many of the one loss teams still play each other yet. In the end, I think we’re going to need Clemson to be upset again to sneak into the 4th spot.
Playoff chances
- Thread starter aquapong
- Start date
Our playoff chances are near non existent. Our chances of an appearance in the B10 championship are near non existent. OSU must lose 2 for that to happen.
CJF and staff have a motivational mountain to climb the next two weeks especially if Bates and Buck are out for long. Keeping this team looking forward after this loss is a real important challenge to the program going forward.
CJF and staff have a motivational mountain to climb the next two weeks especially if Bates and Buck are out for long. Keeping this team looking forward after this loss is a real important challenge to the program going forward.
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Just need to regroup, control what we can control, and win out. --We'll see how it shakes down. Playoffs aren't likely......but not impossible either. Much can occur in the next 6 weeks
At this point, I hope we can win out. Michigan state won't be a pushover and we still have Nebraska and Maryland which will be tough.
Barring total chaos, we are looking at probably a Florida bowl or maybe another bowl like Fiesta....wherever the playoffs aren't located.
Barring total chaos, we are looking at probably a Florida bowl or maybe another bowl like Fiesta....wherever the playoffs aren't located.
B10 Championship near impossible at this point. However, playoffs, we need to pull a 2016 OSU. Unfortunately we know the committee can change the rules whenever they want, but if we go off recent precedent, having only 1 loss or less is step 1.
Aside from winning out, the simple things:
OSU loses 1 more, Best chance Michigan, Iowa (I would say Wisconsin but we will need OSU to beat them for their loss #2)
Wisconsin loses 2, Best chance Michigan, Iowa, and OSU in Championship game
The above sets us up for the best chance to be the Big Ten rep in the playoffs just like it did last year for OSU. The biggest risk from the committee in this scenario is using the "no signature win" argument that OSU had last year against Oklahoma. But it is what it is.
From there, its a battle of the other 1 loss teams. Need to root for 1 more loss from ND, Oklahoma & Clemson. We should get in over 1 loss TCU, Washington, and Miami (likely). I would likely assume both Alabama and Georgia are getting in at this point. But 2 losses from UGA also possible with a game against Auburn left.
Aside from winning out, the simple things:
OSU loses 1 more, Best chance Michigan, Iowa (I would say Wisconsin but we will need OSU to beat them for their loss #2)
Wisconsin loses 2, Best chance Michigan, Iowa, and OSU in Championship game
The above sets us up for the best chance to be the Big Ten rep in the playoffs just like it did last year for OSU. The biggest risk from the committee in this scenario is using the "no signature win" argument that OSU had last year against Oklahoma. But it is what it is.
From there, its a battle of the other 1 loss teams. Need to root for 1 more loss from ND, Oklahoma & Clemson. We should get in over 1 loss TCU, Washington, and Miami (likely). I would likely assume both Alabama and Georgia are getting in at this point. But 2 losses from UGA also possible with a game against Auburn left.
Michigan and OSU are in the same division and cannot meet in the championship game as I understand it.
That's correct. They meet the last game of the regular season as they always do. It is nearly guaranteed it will be Wisconsin vs OSU in the championship
Key is where we start out when Tuesday's rankings are announced. If we're no worse than 7th, then I think it really comes down to ND or Clemson getting dealt another loss to get PSU in w/out a conference championship.
I don't see the P12 in play anymore and only way Big XII is in the discussion is if TCU or Oklahoma run the table.
The difference b/w this year and last is the quality of PSU's loss(es)...and the strength of the B1G is still legit as best division in football.
I don't see the P12 in play anymore and only way Big XII is in the discussion is if TCU or Oklahoma run the table.
The difference b/w this year and last is the quality of PSU's loss(es)...and the strength of the B1G is still legit as best division in football.
I predict that OSU will lose to Michigan, Wisconsin will lose to OSU. And nobody goes to the playoff from the B1G. Alabama, ND, Miami, Oklahoma
Miami plays ND so someone has to lose. if ND loses they are out with 2 losses. If Miami loses, a 1 loss Miami team is not going to get in over a 1 loss Big Ten team.
Run the table (6-2 Mich St, 3-5 Rutgers, 4-4 Nebraska, 4-4 Maryland) and here are our threats and their threats:
1. Bama: 6-2 LSU, 6-2 Miss St, Mercer?, 6-2 Auburn, and likely 8-0 Georgia
2. Georgia: 6-2 S. Car, 6-2 Auburn, 6-2 Kentucky, 4-3 Georgia Tech, and likely 8-0 Bama
3. Wiconsin: 3-5 Indiana, 5-3 Iowa, 6-2 Michigan, 4-4 Minnesota and likely 7-1 Ohio St, if not them, us
4. Miami: 7-1 Vo Tech, 7-1 ND, 5-3 UVA, 4-5 Pitt, and likely 7-1 Clemson
5. Ohio St: 5-3 Iowa, 6-2 Mich St, 2-6 Illinois, 6-2 Michigan, and likely 8-0 Wisconsin
6. Clemson: 6-2 NC St, 2-5 Fl St, Citadel?, 6-2 S. Carolina, and 7-0 Miami or 7-1 Vo Tech
7. Notre Dame: 5-3 Wake Forest, 7-0 Miami, 5-2 Navy, 6-2 Stanford, no conf championship game
8. Oklahoma: 7-1 Okie St, 7-1 TCU, 1-7 Kansas, 5-3 WVA and likely 7-1 TCU, 7-1 Okie St, or 6-2 Iowa St (top 2 make the championship game)
9. TCU: 4-4 Texas, 7-1 Oklahoma, 4-4 Texas Tech, 0-8 Baylor, and likely 7-1 Oklahoma, 7-1 Okie St, or 6-2 Iowa St (top 2 make the championship game)
10. Vo Tech: 7-0 Miami, 4-3 Georgia Tech, 4-5 Pitt, 5-3 Virginia, and likely 7-1 Clemson
11. Okie St: 7-1 Oklahoma, 6-2 Iowa St, 4-4 K St, 1-7 Kansas, and likely 7-1 TCU, 7-1 Oklahoma, or 6-2 Iowa St (top 2 make the championship game)
12. Washington: 5-4 Oregon, 6-2 Stanford, 4-4 Utah, 7-2 Wash St and likely 7-2 USC
Now I think we have the easiest path to win out and 2 loss teams are done.
So we likely get:
1) Either Bama or Georgia with an outside shot of both though both still have three 6-2 SEC teams to get through before they face each other. It is possible in 6 chances of one stumbling before that SEC championship where they could pick up their 2nd loss. (1 team in for sure, outside shot at 2)
2) Ohio St or Wisconsin really have the easiest path to a conference championship. I think Ohio St will roll them and Wisconsin could even drop one to Michigan first. (1 team in for sure, outside shot at 2 with the most likely scenario for that being PSU)
3) Clemson or Miami is next best chance but Vo Tech is an outside shot to run it and win their championship. Clemson faces 4 teams 6-2 or better and would be in if they run it. I don't think Miami can get through the three 7-1 team gauntlet and as weak as they have been, 1 loss eliminates them. Vo Tech only has two remaining major tests and could conceivably pull that off but their only win of remote significance currently is 5-3 WVA or maybe 5-4 BC? (Clemson or bust)
4) Notre Dame if they win out will likely get in but plays four decent teams. I actually think that they have a good chance of this unfortunately because they should be favored in all. (50/50 in)
5) Oklahoma, TCU, and Okie St is the next best shot. They all play some combo of each other and 6-2 Iowa St. They now have a conference championship game which is going to be a rematch of an earlier game. Most have 3 legit shots to lose against teams as good as they are in conference. I'm not sure that one runs the table but it could happen. (33% to 50% chance of one running the table)
6) Washington is the only other shot and they have three 2 loss teams on their remaining schedule. They could run it but I'm thinking not. (maybe 33% shot)
Basically, we need to let this play out. Like some said, we are in the varsity portion of our schedule and guess what, so is everyone else. This is the time of the year that multiple teams get eliminated from contention each week.
I like our path to win out. We need to get some of this deluge of injuries from Ohio St back. We lost by 1 on the road to the likely #4 this week who had 2 weeks to prep while we sustained 4 major injuries to starters throughout the game. We need to take care of what we can control and we have as good of a shot as probably 7 or 8 others of getting a spot.
1. Bama: 6-2 LSU, 6-2 Miss St, Mercer?, 6-2 Auburn, and likely 8-0 Georgia
2. Georgia: 6-2 S. Car, 6-2 Auburn, 6-2 Kentucky, 4-3 Georgia Tech, and likely 8-0 Bama
3. Wiconsin: 3-5 Indiana, 5-3 Iowa, 6-2 Michigan, 4-4 Minnesota and likely 7-1 Ohio St, if not them, us
4. Miami: 7-1 Vo Tech, 7-1 ND, 5-3 UVA, 4-5 Pitt, and likely 7-1 Clemson
5. Ohio St: 5-3 Iowa, 6-2 Mich St, 2-6 Illinois, 6-2 Michigan, and likely 8-0 Wisconsin
6. Clemson: 6-2 NC St, 2-5 Fl St, Citadel?, 6-2 S. Carolina, and 7-0 Miami or 7-1 Vo Tech
7. Notre Dame: 5-3 Wake Forest, 7-0 Miami, 5-2 Navy, 6-2 Stanford, no conf championship game
8. Oklahoma: 7-1 Okie St, 7-1 TCU, 1-7 Kansas, 5-3 WVA and likely 7-1 TCU, 7-1 Okie St, or 6-2 Iowa St (top 2 make the championship game)
9. TCU: 4-4 Texas, 7-1 Oklahoma, 4-4 Texas Tech, 0-8 Baylor, and likely 7-1 Oklahoma, 7-1 Okie St, or 6-2 Iowa St (top 2 make the championship game)
10. Vo Tech: 7-0 Miami, 4-3 Georgia Tech, 4-5 Pitt, 5-3 Virginia, and likely 7-1 Clemson
11. Okie St: 7-1 Oklahoma, 6-2 Iowa St, 4-4 K St, 1-7 Kansas, and likely 7-1 TCU, 7-1 Oklahoma, or 6-2 Iowa St (top 2 make the championship game)
12. Washington: 5-4 Oregon, 6-2 Stanford, 4-4 Utah, 7-2 Wash St and likely 7-2 USC
Now I think we have the easiest path to win out and 2 loss teams are done.
So we likely get:
1) Either Bama or Georgia with an outside shot of both though both still have three 6-2 SEC teams to get through before they face each other. It is possible in 6 chances of one stumbling before that SEC championship where they could pick up their 2nd loss. (1 team in for sure, outside shot at 2)
2) Ohio St or Wisconsin really have the easiest path to a conference championship. I think Ohio St will roll them and Wisconsin could even drop one to Michigan first. (1 team in for sure, outside shot at 2 with the most likely scenario for that being PSU)
3) Clemson or Miami is next best chance but Vo Tech is an outside shot to run it and win their championship. Clemson faces 4 teams 6-2 or better and would be in if they run it. I don't think Miami can get through the three 7-1 team gauntlet and as weak as they have been, 1 loss eliminates them. Vo Tech only has two remaining major tests and could conceivably pull that off but their only win of remote significance currently is 5-3 WVA or maybe 5-4 BC? (Clemson or bust)
4) Notre Dame if they win out will likely get in but plays four decent teams. I actually think that they have a good chance of this unfortunately because they should be favored in all. (50/50 in)
5) Oklahoma, TCU, and Okie St is the next best shot. They all play some combo of each other and 6-2 Iowa St. They now have a conference championship game which is going to be a rematch of an earlier game. Most have 3 legit shots to lose against teams as good as they are in conference. I'm not sure that one runs the table but it could happen. (33% to 50% chance of one running the table)
6) Washington is the only other shot and they have three 2 loss teams on their remaining schedule. They could run it but I'm thinking not. (maybe 33% shot)
Basically, we need to let this play out. Like some said, we are in the varsity portion of our schedule and guess what, so is everyone else. This is the time of the year that multiple teams get eliminated from contention each week.
I like our path to win out. We need to get some of this deluge of injuries from Ohio St back. We lost by 1 on the road to the likely #4 this week who had 2 weeks to prep while we sustained 4 major injuries to starters throughout the game. We need to take care of what we can control and we have as good of a shot as probably 7 or 8 others of getting a spot.
Decent chance things tape shape for (or against) Oklahoma or Miami within next 2 weeks.
Oklahoma has Oklahoma State and TCU in back to back and would have a rematch with one of them in Big XII championship. If they can navigate that then they'll have earned it but I just don't see it happening.
Miami has VT and Notre Dame coming up. Highly unlikely they win both of those. I'd put Miami with Wisconsin in terms of most unimpressive of the top 10. Their only win over team with a winning record to date is over Georgia Tech.
Tempted to "like" this but I don't like it, nevertheless, it's realistic, good analysis.
I see MSU as being a huge problem, especially if there's a hangover for PSU from this week. Fortunately MSU lost in 3OT so it's possible they may not be at their best either.
LOL Rutgres, but hey, they would love to beat PSU.
Nebraska could be a problem. They seem to be improving somewhat. PSU probably wins but that could be a high scoring shootout if their QB gets his act together.
Maryland is wounded, don't know what kind of shape they'll be in at season's end.
I think 4-0 to close out the year is likely, but could see 2-2 as well. Motivation at this point is 11-1 and a 1-point loss to an archrival in their stadium, top 10 or maybe top 5 ranking, hold your head high. And there is the Heisman, I would not put Barkley out of it at this point.
Injuries concern me too. Can't afford any more.
We are most definitely still alive. A one point loss at OSU was not a knockout for our playoff chances. Obviously we need to win out. That's all we can do. We've seen it every year - expect the unexpected. A one point loss will look very good a few weeks from now provided it's our only loss.
What's frustrating is...
* Penn State would have had a shot at the title in 1994 had their been a BCS setup (let alone CFP). The BCS was established soon afterwards.
* Penn State would have had a shot at the national championship in 2005 and 2008 had the 4 team CFP been established. This was during the BCS era, long before the current 4 team CFP.
* Penn State would have had a shot at the national championship in 2016 and 2017 had the 8 team CFP been established. These seasons were during the 4 team CFP, prior to the establishment of the 8 team CFP in 20__.
Most definitely "so close, yet...".
* Penn State would have had a shot at the title in 1994 had their been a BCS setup (let alone CFP). The BCS was established soon afterwards.
* Penn State would have had a shot at the national championship in 2005 and 2008 had the 4 team CFP been established. This was during the BCS era, long before the current 4 team CFP.
* Penn State would have had a shot at the national championship in 2016 and 2017 had the 8 team CFP been established. These seasons were during the 4 team CFP, prior to the establishment of the 8 team CFP in 20__.
Most definitely "so close, yet...".
FWIW, the 538 website shows PSU with a 68% chance of making the CFB playoff if we win out. That sounds about right. There is still a lot of football left to be played.
We PSU fans are kidding ourselves about how good the 2005 and 2008 teams actually were. I think the 2016 and 2017 teams were/are better than both. There is no guarantee that either could have pulled off a national title in a CFP. I don't think either would have. 1994 was the last truly great team and should have won a national title share
Not crying, just staying an OBVIOUS fact.
That fact is that we haven’t won an NC in 30+ years.
It was a great team, but lost to an OK Michigan and took 3 OTs to beat #22 in a bowl game. The idea that they could have beaten USC or Texas that year - I don't think so.
Outside of the '94 team, I'm not saying any of the 2005, 2008, 2016, or 2017 teams would be favorites to win the title.
But in a four-team college football playoff format, some of these teams would have made it to the playoffs. All of them would have garnered a playoff berth in an 8-team format CFP. Isn't it all about getting into the tournament, as Bill Parcells once said? You've seen how many wild card or "weaker" divisional winners have won the Super Bowl or World Series over the years. It would be nice just to see a PSU squad make it to the CF tournament and see what happens.
On the flip side, had their been playoffs in 1982 or '86, Penn State may not have been National Champs. But given how consistently good they were historically, I bet they would have won their share in a playoff, starting with 1968-69 and 1973 squads.
The one thing that could end up biting PSU in the battle of 1 loss teams was Michigan State beating Michigan. Otherwise we would have beaten a top 10 team and had our key signature win of the season
Wrong...it shows we have a 68% chance of winning out. If we do win out, then it shows a 21% chance of making it, which sounds about right.
Wrong...it shows we have a 68% chance of winning out. If we do win out, then it shows a 21% chance of making it, which sounds about right.
Penn State is a top 4 team and for all the discussion of multiple SEC teams in the playoff, the B1G could set up the same argument if PSU wins out and Wisconsin loses twice.
Last night was a CFP semifinal imo
Last night was a CFP semifinal imo
I don’t agree they are non existant.
The first rankings will be huge. It’s quite possible we can be ranked as high as #6.
More likely we’ll be #7.
In either case, if we finish 11-1 and are already at the doorstep then it’s not impossible to climb in there. We would need to move up 3 spots.
Georgia and Alabama are guaranteed to lose. I don’t think the CFP will take a championship game loser. That’s one spot to move up.
OSU still has to win at Iowa, at home against MSU, and at Michigan. I don’t think any 2 loss team makes the CFP this year, so even if they win the conference title game PSU could still pass them.
Clemson has to deal with NC State on the road next week, and also win their conf title game.
Notre Dame still has to beat Miami and goes on the road to play Stanford.
What happens in the Big 12 is a wild card. All the best teams are playing each other down the stretch so they will either eliminate their conference from the CFP or somebody is going to jump to the front of the 11-1 teams.
Yes, our odds probably went from 75% chance of making the playoff to 15% chance with yesterday’s loss but it’s not as hopeless as you may think.
Little early for a semi final. Still too many things have to happen. If Bama and GA are both undefeated and in the SEC championship game, then that would be like a semifinal.
