Playoff Scenarios

[LandoComando]

So, things are pretty clear now other than 1 spot

Playoff spots
Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State, Indiana and Ohio State
SEC: Texas, Georgia and Tennessee
Big XII: Iowa State/Arizona State winner
ACC: SMU/Clemson winner
AQ: Boise State/UNLV winner (Tulane blew their shot)
Other: Notre Dame

Big XII and MWC Championship game losers are out.
If Clemson loses they're out

Teams in contention for the final spot: SMU, USCe, Alabama and maybe Miami (don't see it)


Still lots of unknowns here...
1-2-5-6: Should be Oregon, Georgia, Penn State and Texas in some order
7: Notre Dame (in theory could be 6 but seems unlikely)
8 & 9: Tennessee & Ohio State (in some order)
10: Indiana (hate that ND will get Indiana)

3: SMU if they win--if not, it gets ugly, probably Boise State if they win--if both lose then Arizona State/Iowa State
4: Most likely Boise State but possibly Big XII winner if Clemson wins or if UNLV wins
11 & 12: Big XII winner/UNLV/Clemson then one of USCe, Alabama, SMU or Miami

Projection
If the favorites (Oregon, Georgia, SMU, Boise State and doesn't matter) win we'd likely get

12 South Carolina at 5 Texas (4 Boise State)
11 ASU/ISU at 6 Penn State (3 SMU)
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame (2 Georgia)
9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State (1 Oregon)

I think USCe gets in based on who's playing the best and resume--all good losses with big wins. Maybe the Big XII winner

 

[cyrizzle]

So, things are pretty clear now other than 1 spot

Playoff spots
Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State, Indiana and Ohio State
SEC: Texas, Georgia and Tennessee
Big XII: Iowa State/Arizona State winner
ACC: SMU/Clemson winner
AQ: Boise State/UNLV winner (Tulane blew their shot)
Other: Notre Dame

Big XII and MWC Championship game losers are out.
If Clemson loses their out

Teams in contention for the final spot: SMU, USCe, Alabama and maybe Miami (don't see it)


Still lots of unknowns here...
1-2-5-6: Should be Oregon, Georgia, Penn State and Texas in some order
7: Notre Dame (in theory could be 6 but seems unlikely)
8 & 9: Tennessee & Ohio State (in some order)
10: Indiana (hate that ND will get Indiana)

3: SMU if they win--if not, it gets ugly, probably Boise State if they win--if both lose than Arizona State/Iowa State
4: Most likely Boise State but possibly Big XII winner if Clemson win
11 & 12:
Big XII winner then one of USCe, Alabama, SMU or Miami

Projection
If the favorites (Oregon, Georgia, SMU, Boise State and doesn't matter) win we'd likely get

12 South Carolina at 5 Texas (4 Boise State)
11 ASU/ISU at 6 Penn State (3 SMU)
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame (2 Georgia)
9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State (1 Oregon)

I think USCe gets in based on who's playing the best and resume--all good losses with big wins. Maybe the Big XII winner

I’d like to see South Carolina get in over Bama, but I just don’t see the committee doing that based on Bama beating them head to head earlier in the season.

 

[fastlax16]

I don’t think Miami drops out based on what this committee has done previously.

Bama dropped 6 after ou. BYU dropped 8 after ku. Both much worse losses than 4 points to cuse on the road.

 

[LandoComando]

I don’t think Miami drops out based on what this committee has done previously.

Bama dropped 6 after ou. BYU dropped 8 after ku. Both much worse losses than 4 points to cuse on the road.

I think they drop 6-8 spots like those 2
Personally I think the Cuse loss was worse--they blew a 21 point lead
But I also have zero respect for Miami so we'll see what the committee thinks

 

[LandoComando]

I’d like to see South Carolina get in over Bama, but I just don’t see the committee doing that based on Bama beating them head to head earlier in the season.

South Carolina's playing better right now--will it matter? I'm not sure but I think the bad losses might do in Bama