Probability of Winning - 2019 Review

[Unbiased_football_fan]

How did WrestleSim do? Pretty much spot on. I run the model two ways: base and with subjective boosts to win and bonus percentages. I have found that with the boosts can be more accurate but you have to be really careful. For instance, I had boosted Martin's win and bonus percentages but that turned out to be wrong. I had boosted many of the Penn State wrestlers bonus percentages because historically they bonus at a higher rate than the field. The probability of winning I had stated in the previous thread was with the boosts, and we can never tell the accuracy of the probability estimate because we only get one result. This year the base results were more accurate in terms of scores though both runs had the same order of finish.

Iowa and Michigan flipped spots but they were only separated by 1 point in the simulation. Michigan had the biggest under-performance at -8.5 points whereas Missouri, Cornell, and Nebraska were all in the +11 to +12 points range. +/- 10 points can all be due to just one wrestler. Hopefully the image below posts!

Next year looks to be VERY interesting. This is where the model comes in very handy. Who is the favorite? Should I redshirt guys or not? Will a transfer help me significantly? You can get answers to all of these things with scenario analysis. Basically "what if" simulations. I will happily do some of those simulations but I need input from you.

Here is what I could use from you, the wrestling community:

1) Projected ranks for any team you want simulated. I am familiar with most of the Big Ten teams but not in tune with how good the guys are coming in off redshirts.
2) Projected ranks for freshman entering lineups.

If you supply this information please indicate what school you follow, as I have to take into account bias in the estimates. The more estimates the better!

I realize there is a lot of uncertainty with PSU's lineup. I haven't run it yet, but I think it is going to boil down to someone else will win the national title if Cael decides to let them win.

 

[Kale_yeah]

I think comes down to 184,197,and hwt if 3 6yrs senior fill those position than psu has to be all in.

 

[jrod65]

[QUOTE="Unbiased_fo I haven't run it yet, but I think it is going to boil down to someone else will win the national title if Cael decides to let them win.[/QUOTE]

Wow.....

You may be an unbiased football fan, not so much for wrestling.

 

[jrod65]

Kudos to the sims though. Seriously, this is good stuff.

 

[Gray52]

[QUOTE="Unbiased_fo I haven't run it yet, but I think it is going to boil down to someone else will win the national title if Cael decides to let them win.

Wow.....

You may be an unbiased football fan, not so much for wrestling.[/QUOTE]
If the last 11 years is any indicator, he’s spot on.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

I plugged in some numbers at lunchtime. Here are a few scenarios to discuss (these are probabilities of winning):

1) No Cassar or Rasheed - I am not judging how good Brooks and Nevills may be if they wrestle. From reading the article about Brooks at the OTC it sounds like he may be fantastic.

Iowa - 65%, OhioSt - 14%, PSU - 9%, Cornell - 7%, Michigan - 6%, OkSt - 1%

2) Cassar and Rasheed - This is the uninjured Rasheed not the DNP version.

PSU - 55%, Iowa - 39%, OhioSt - 4.4%, Michigan 2.8%, Cornell 2.2%

3) Cassar and Rasheed, Conel low AA

PSU - 84%, Iowa - 15%, Cornell - 1%, everyone else << 1%

Where some teams lost people or have better people coming in at a weight after redshirting it would be helpful if some of you posted your thoughts on where to rank the new guys.

You need #1 and #2 seeds to win. Look at your lineup and realistically assess who could win next year. For PSU I would say they have five - Lee, Joseph, Hall, Rasheed, Cassar, with Rasheed being the most speculative. I think his knee was pretty messed up this year.

You don't want your top guys at the hardest weights, which will be Iowa's problem next year. I think their best guys are at 125, 133, 165, and 174 (If Kemerer comes back strong). IMHO those are the hardest weights which greatly increases your chances of not finishing to seed (or exceeding it).

The other problem for the field vs. PSU is bonus points. Even with the loss of Nolf and Nickal I believe PSU has more bonus points returning than any other team scored this year, and that is assuming the new guys for PSU score zero bonus.

UFF

 

[PSUoh90]

I plugged in some numbers at lunchtime. Here are a few scenarios to discuss (these are probabilities of winning):

1) No Cassar or Rasheed - I am not judging how good Brooks and Nevills may be if they wrestle. From reading the article about Brooks at the OTC it sounds like he may be fantastic.

Iowa - 65%, OhioSt - 14%, PSU - 9%, Cornell - 7%, Michigan - 6%, OkSt - 1%

2) Cassar and Rasheed - This is the uninjured Rasheed not the DNP version.

PSU - 55%, Iowa - 39%, OhioSt - 4.4%, Michigan 2.8%, Cornell 2.2%

3) Cassar and Rasheed, Conel low AA

PSU - 84%, Iowa - 15%, Cornell - 1%, everyone else << 1%

Where some teams lost people or have better people coming in at a weight after redshirting it would be helpful if some of you posted your thoughts on where to rank the new guys.

You need #1 and #2 seeds to win. Look at your lineup and realistically assess who could win next year. For PSU I would say they have five - Lee, Joseph, Hall, Rasheed, Cassar, with Rasheed being the most speculative. I think his knee was pretty messed up this year.

You don't want your top guys at the hardest weights, which will be Iowa's problem next year. I think their best guys are at 125, 133, 165, and 174 (If Kemerer comes back strong). IMHO those are the hardest weights which greatly increases your chances of not finishing to seed (or exceeding it).

The other problem for the field vs. PSU is bonus points. Even with the loss of Nolf and Nickal I believe PSU has more bonus points returning than any other team scored this year, and that is assuming the new guys for PSU score zero bonus.

UFF

I've looked at your model now for the last 3 years and have no reason to doubt it. 2017 and 2019 had PSU as significant favorite and both were wrapped up going into Saturday night. Last year had PSU as very slight favorite over OSU and it all boiled down to one match.

 

[SJP80]

In spite of my early hesitation, consider me convinced. I think we need to take this underground and hide this tool. I suspect Cael already has this tool (or something similar) and he can move forward as the odds dictate. No need for the IA or tOSU guys to get their hands on this as they may have to consider Oly Red-shirts as well. Let's let Mr Lee do this all with abacus and pencil in the now 4" binder (new section added for re-acquiring GT)