PSU confidence barometer?

[proud2bpsufan]

If we were on the road this week vs ND instead of OSU, how confident would you be in a PSU victory?
Would we even be favored?
Given Allar's less than stellar first road game, I'd have to only give us 40% chance.

 

[Erial_Lion]

If we were on the road this week vs ND instead of OSU, how confident would you be in a PSU victory?
Would we even be favored?
Given Allar's less than stellar first road game, I'd have to only give us 40% chance.

We’d be an underdog.

 

[Jerry]

If we were on the road this week vs ND instead of OSU, how confident would you be in a PSU victory?
Would we even be favored?
Given Allar's less than stellar first road game, I'd have to only give us 40% chance.

Just a wag, but on their home field, I think the Irish would be favored by something in the range of 4-5 points.

That said, I'm honestly a little surprised that Ohio State is favored (-3.5) in South Bend on Saturday night. I love Sam Hartman, the Wake Forest transfer who is now Notre Dame's QB. I saw Wake's win at Florida State last year, and Hartman was dynamite. He was the difference in that game.

And there's been no drop-off so far this year. Through four ND games, he has a completion percentage of 70%, a TD-INT ratio of 13-0, and is #3 in the NCAA's ranking of pass efficiency.

 

[bcspsu]

Just a wag, but on their home field, I think the Irish would be favored by something in the range of 4-5 points.

That said, I'm honestly a little surprised that Ohio State is favored (-3.5) in South Bend on Saturday night. I love Sam Hartman, the Wake Forest transfer who is now Notre Dame's QB. I saw Wake's win at Florida State last year, and Hartman was dynamite. He was the difference in that game.

And there's been no drop-off so far this year. Through four ND games, he has a completion percentage of 70%, a TD-INT ratio of 13-0, and is #3 in the NCAA's ranking of pass efficiency.

Vegas must think that Stroud still is OSU's qb.

 

[lazydave841]

We’d be an underdog.

How much?

Based on Sag, I'm seeing we'd be a -0.5 dog. Curious where you have it?

 

[Obliviax]

Because it is ND we'd be a dog. But I'd still be confident in a win.

I think PSU peeps are freaking out about ILL but 1) we covered the spread 2) the game was never really in doubt and 3) Allar played poorly.

We also had three pass drops that were critical and the unsportsmanlike penalty against KLS ended up in a 10 to 14 point swing. You put us up by 3 scores at halftime, we blow ILL out in the second half.

 

[LandoComando]

ND/Penn State to me would be a pick 'em. I think Ohio State should be slightly favored because of the coaching and overall talent. McCord seems to be getting more confident and I'm not sure anyone can cover Harrison. I wouldn't be surprised if ND won (though I still think that's worst case scenario for us) but Ohio State, even on the road, is a clear favorite. I'd take Penn State against ND in a pick 'em.

 

[LandoComando]

I think PSU peeps are freaking out about ILL but 1) we covered the spread 2) the game was never really in doubt and 3) Allar played poorly.

I could be wrong but I don't think people are "freaking out". I agree with all of what you said.
I think people just see areas that need to improve which is normal this time of year.

 

[IANit]

If we were on the road this week vs ND instead of OSU, how confident would you be in a PSU victory?
Would we even be favored?
Given Allar's less than stellar first road game, I'd have to only give us 40% chance.

We've got Iowa to worry about. We should handle them at home. I think we have more depth and we haven't seen the full offense yet. Should be a good defensive battle most of the game. This will be a good test for Allar. The OL needs to keep him healthy.

I don't know if we handle Notre Dame this early in South Bend if Allar plays like he did Saturday. I think later in the season or in a playoff once he is a little more seasoned we beat them handily.

 

[bdgan]

Because it is ND we'd be a dog. But I'd still be confident in a win.

I think PSU peeps are freaking out about ILL but 1) we covered the spread 2) the game was never really in doubt and 3) Allar played poorly.

We also had three pass drops that were critical and the unsportsmanlike penalty against KLS ended up in a 10 to 14 point swing. You put us up by 3 scores at halftime, we blow ILL out in the second half.

The dropped passes and penalties can be corrected. My concern is about how our OL was pushed around and how Allar struggled a bit under pressure. I'll feel a lot better if those things are better this week vs Iowa.

 

[Obliviax]

The dropped passes and penalties can be corrected. My concern is about how our OL was pushed around and how Allar struggled a bit under pressure. I'll feel a lot better if those things are better this week vs Iowa.

yep. totally agree. two other comments:

Illinois was supposed to have as good of a DL as we'll face according the DeNardo in the B1G roadshop pre-season. So they are no slouch.

We had three dropped passes, one was a clear first down on a third down play. The unsportsmanlike of KLS was huge. Probably a ten to 14 point turnaround. Again, after all that, we covered a large spread and against a quality team.

 

[PennSt8er]

It is very difficult to be alert at 11:00 AM on another turf. This team is stacked. No worries, mate.

 

[bdgan]

It is very difficult to be alert at 11:00 AM on another turf. This team is stacked. No worries, mate.

We'll find out more this week. PSU can't count on 5 TOs. +1 or +2 would be great. PSU made some nice plays but the Illinois QB gift wrapped a few of them.

 

[lazydave841]

Turnovers came off of pressure and coverage.

 

[Obliviax]

View embedded media

Turnovers came off of pressure and coverage.

that's right. PSU was up 13 - 0 early in the second quarter. It was clear that ILL was not going to score a lot of point and pressed. Those turnovers were not unforced. While PSU played some sloppy ball, the game could just as easily been a blow out.

 

[Erial_Lion]

How much?

Based on Sag, I'm seeing we'd be a -0.5 dog. Curious where you have it?

I don't handicap college football, so I can't say for sure. However, OSU has consistently been about a 10-10.5 favorite over us, so figure they are about a TD better on a neutral field even if you adjust it by a point or so based on what we saw this weekend. So, I'd guess we'd be a 3-4 point dog at ND.

 

[lazydave841]

that's right. PSU was up 13 - 0 early in the second quarter. It was clear that ILL was not going to score a lot of point and pressed. Those turnovers were not unforced. While PSU played some sloppy ball, the game could just as easily been a blow out.

It's like people don't watch the plays. Altmeyer could have took sacks, and could have thrown the ball out of bounds.

 

[Obliviax]

It's like people don't watch the plays. Altmeyer could have took sacks, and could have thrown the ball out of bounds.

Agreed. It is always good to take a holistic view of the stats as well as each individual play with it's context.

I was not happy about the game until I looked at the stats the next day. first, we covered a large spread. second, our defense really held them to one TD. third, the offense shot themselves in the foot. That translates into "not as bad as it looked and the problems are correctable."

To me, the most alarming things were that we couldn't handle #4. Why? Maybe you can offer some insight on that. Second, KLS needs to reign it in a bit. I recall in the rose bowl him doing the "pulled hamstring limp" bit as well as pointing to the Utah bench when Singleton made his big run. That penalty could just have easily been called on Illinois but he needs to be a leader on this team. Time to grow up a little bit. I am not saying he's a bad kid but what I am saying is he's got to stop with the nonsense and complete the KLS package.

And, again, the penalty was a ten or fourteen point swing at a fairly critical time.

 

[YYZ86]

Played on the road against a team that had a good game plan and was up to play. Covered with basically a rookie QB. I don’t use one game as a metric. This may have
been a good thing. This game has no bearing on future games unless lessons aren’t learned.

 

[lazydave841]

To me, the most alarming things were that we couldn't handle #4. Why? Maybe you can offer some insight on that. Second, KLS needs to reign it in a bit. I recall in the rose bowl him doing the "pulled hamstring limp" bit as well as pointing to the Utah bench when Singleton made his big run. That penalty could just have easily been called on Illinois but he needs to be a leader on this team. Time to grow up a little bit. I am not saying he's a bad kid but what I am saying is he's got to stop with the nonsense and complete the KLS package.

#4 causing problems seemed to be multifaceted.

1. He moved around a lot. He didn't line up anywhere specific. He probably went against every OL we played at some point without stunts.

2. Illinois played with a 5 man front. This makes doubling him tougher because it opens gaps for LBs.

3. He's a DUDE. At worst, top 5 DT prospect. Even when we blocked him well, he got his hands up and deflected a pass.

As for KLS, Allar definitely missed him on a deep route that could have been a TD. The penalty was a huge swing (3rd and 2 became 3rd and 17), but it's also something that doesn't always get called (considering there were no chippiness prior, why here?) and doesn't always get called evenly (how often do you see OSU WRs called for a one armed shove of a guy they were just blocking?).

It was a dumb move, but not particularly egregious. I'd warn against it in the future because quite frankly, how often does it ever go our way?

 

[ryoder1]

On their scoring drive I think they hit 3 big passes and we were beaten in the middle of the field a couple times. They had a big completion to the sideline, which looked like missed coverage and two others in the middle. With that said I don't think they had much success throwing outside of this drive. OSU will test us over the middle with Harrison Jr. Kalen King needs to bring it.

 

[Obliviax]

On their scoring drive I think they hit 3 big passes and we were beaten in the middle of the field a couple times. They had a big completion to the sideline, which looked like missed coverage and two others in the middle. With that said I don't think they had much success throwing outside of this drive. OSU will test us over the middle with Harrison Jr. Kalen King needs to bring it.

good points and I forgot to mention that. There were a few plays that PSU just missed on. I recall one play where the QB got the ball off just as he got smoked. The receiver was covered but the ball sneaked in. Credit to ILL on that play but it required high end execution.